Time to watch rcl stock again

[Ourusualbeach]

44 minutes ago, orville99 said:

Haven't changed a bit - would not touch this stock with a 10-foot pole. 

You know that is not what I was talking about

[yogimax]

1 hour ago, UnregisteredUser said:

 

 

Should I buy now or wait... OR go for NCL instead...? So many choises.. 😂

Getting stock information on a Board dedicated to cruising knowing that even the most informed are often wrong. 

 

Anyone see any problem with this?

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, orville99 said:

In a word, no.

Would you care to give your reasoning for the response, or is it just something you just know? I usually explain mine.

[grandgeezer]

3 hours ago, orville99 said:

Product performance hits the Top line. The bottom line is whatever is left over from the top line after you pay everyone what you owe them Assets-Liabilities = Bottom Line.   If debt service increases because low interest debt has to be re-funded by high interest debt, and/or the lien holder takes advantage of his call option, Ships sink regardless of how full they are.

How do you know if the debt services increases during the year unless they announce it? Investing is based on what you know and what you speculate will happen. They normally only give their financial information once a quarter, if you wait until then, you might have missed the boat.

 

[firefly333]

10 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

How do you know if the debt services increases during the year unless they announce it? Investing is based on what you know and what you speculate will happen. They normally only give their financial information once a quarter, if you wait until then, you might have missed the boat.

 

Analysts do forecast for a year in advance though often wrong I admit. I've seen a lot of stocks sell off based on beating top and bottom line but the forward guidance wasnt what people wanted to hear.

 

And then we got NVDA in a class pretty much all by itself with everyone arguing about what a fair pe is for a stock growing like that. No one else has those advanced AI chips. Sure eventually but not now. Earnings grew qtr over qtr at 88%. Unheard of. Yes there are other aspects to AI, but nvidia has the chips cornered. No one has ever seen this before and doesnt know how to value MIT.

 

That's why I said no one knows what the price of a stock will be in a year, but the PEG for instance which combines the pe and growth can tell you a lot. So I can have a good idea of earnings, but cant predict a price a year out. Charts are short term only.

 

Tomorrow saudi oil meeting. Sit on your hands .. see what they decide. 

[LittleJoefromKokomo]

10 hours ago, yogimax said:

Getting stock information on a Board dedicated to cruising knowing that even the most informed are often wrong. 

 

Anyone see any problem with this?

I am not basing my strategy solely on strangers info from the internet but I find it interesting and helpful to hear what (most) people have to say. At the end of the day I of course make my own decisions, but I need to base it on SOMETHING, be it economy forums, stock charts OR even strangers on different boards (including this one) and thats why I ask to hear what others think. 

[NateUpNorth]

Do you feel inflation is under control? If not will RCL be able to increase prices further beyond what they already have to compensate and attract passengers?

Do you feel that interest rate increases are over and done with? If not, how will that affect the massive amounts of debt RCL took on during Covid when it's time to roll it over?

How do entertainment/leisure stocks fair during a recession? (although I believe the definition of that term is a moving target these days)

What are your thoughts on what would happen if a government that is "changing the energy world" were to cast its attention on the cruise industry? 

I don't have the crystal ball answers on any of this, but I'd be thinking about it when playing with a stock.



 

[firefly333]

13 minutes ago, NateUpNorth said:

Do you feel inflation is under control? If not will RCL be able to increase prices further beyond what they already have to compensate and attract passengers?

Do you feel that interest rate increases are over and done with? If not, how will that affect the massive amounts of debt RCL took on during Covid when it's time to roll it over?

How do entertainment/leisure stocks fair during a recession? (although I believe the definition of that term is a moving target these days)

What are your thoughts on what would happen if a government that is "changing the energy world" were to cast its attention on the cruise industry? 

I don't have the crystal ball answers on any of this, but I'd be thinking about it when playing with a stock.
 

Inflation is not under control. Obviously several unions are asking for higher wages playing out in public. We know whatever the outcome higher wages passed along as higher prices will result. 

 

I've already said 12 members of the fed believe another rate hike will be needed this year. I would count on it. They almost have no choice as mortgages are rising even faster. 30 year went from 7.08 late august to about 7.7%. And a member of a panel on CNBC said if it's not gotten under control we could see as high as 13% mortgages next spring. Who knows but the cost of money is going up, even if the fed skipped sept hike.

 

A recession has been wrongly predicted for a year by certain factions. Now its pushed out to next year. Will we go into a recession? No one really knows, people havent quit spending. Axp, mc all the credit card issuers are hitting highs and so is their income. 

 

Housing they predicted forever will get severely hit and it hasnt. New home builders hit 52 week highs recently, though finally are selling off. Beat on top and bottom, but the average selling price is down.

 

Wages are going to be a big problem going forward, workers want more $$ as prices of everything go up. Watch the JOLTS numbers and similar. The fed wants to see a tad higher unemployment. JOLTS was part of the panic yesterday.  Friday more numbers. 

 

Too many numbers are going the wrong way for inflation to be under control. 

 

That being said looks like a nice pop on rcl this morning. My last buy was 87.45 or close, I couldnt wait for 86, I know I said but I got antsy. Just 200 to play for earnings, but now I can relax. Had it gone lower I was ready to buy again, but 200 shares enough to play for earnings. 83 would be my next buy if I get a chance before it takes off for earnings.

 

As far as the question what  normally happens during a recession. I think people have changed. They say I deserve this. I think times have changed too, what happened before might not happen this time. House prices are 40% higher since covid cramer was just saying. The 30% drop in home prices some predicted didnt hit and imo wouldnt. This time people havent stopped spending on travel. If anything bookings are way up for rcl, not down. Travel is up not down. Cant always use history as a predictor. People say buy now, price might be higher later and dont deny themselves. Charge it they say. 

 

Your question can they keep charging ever higher prices. Even if they are priced out at these prices they will make money even without raising for a while. More increases are icing on the cake for earnings. I'm still betting on very good earnings and forecast forward.

[Baron Barracuda]

IMO most of the volatility in RCL stock is segment, not company driven. Oil began it's rise in July and airline & cruise stocks topped out soon after.  Since early August UAL, LUV, CCL and NCLH  are all down about 30% while RCL is only down 20%.  During that period the DJIA & S&P are down 10%. 

 

CCL recently reported a very strong quarter, finally producing a positive EPS thanks to higher fares and and an occupancy rate of 109%.  Just as significantly in the first 9 months of 2023 they paid down 10% of their total debt and refinanced some of the balance.  They claim their ships have achieved record early booking levels for 2024 - 2025 at significantly higher rates than 2019.  We can only hope RCL will paint a similar rosy picture when they report. 

 

I directly hold only 100 shares of RCL, believing the volatility in the stock makes it a better options play.  I'm short out of the money calls and puts expecting the stock to fluctuate between 80 and 100 over the next year.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Baron Barracuda

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

IMO most of the volatility in RCL stock is segment, not company driven. Oil began it's rise in July and airline & cruise stocks topped out soon after.  Since early August UAL, LUV, CCL and NCLH  are all down about 30% while RCL is only down 20%.  During that period the DJIA & S&P are down 10%. 

 

CCL recently reported a very strong quarter, finally producing a positive EPS thanks to higher fares and and an occupancy rate of 109%.  Just as significantly in the first 9 months of 2023 they paid down 10% of their total debt and refinanced some of the balance.  They claim their ships have achieved record early booking levels for 2024 - 2025 at significantly higher rates than 2019.  We can only hope RCL will paint a similar rosy picture when they report. 

 

I directly hold only 100 shares of RCL, believing the volatility in the stock makes it a better options play.  I'm short out of the money calls and puts expecting the stock to fluctuate between 80 and 100 over the next year.

I heard someone on CNBC say for debt, 1/3 of it has to be refinanced within the next 12 months for Ford. I wish rcl had that information where I could readily see it easily. When does their debt and % need to be refinanced at these higher rates. 

 

Imo their debt and concern about higher rates were what hit it yesterday. Yesterday all the sudden the fed higher rates for longer started to sink in. 

 

Could be we wouldn't see 86 again, I'm not as sure as you are of the range for rcl. I project anything under $90 is a buy. Bookings are very strong. 

[Baron Barracuda]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I heard someone on CNBC say for debt, 1/3 of it has to be refinanced within the next 12 months for Ford. I wish rcl had that information where I could readily see it easily. When does their debt and % need to be refinanced at these higher rates. 

 

Imo their debt and concern about higher rates were what hit it yesterday. Yesterday all the sudden the fed higher rates for longer started to sink in. 

 

Could be we wouldn't see 86 again, I'm not as sure as you are of the range for rcl. I project anything under $90 is a buy. Bookings are very strong. 

Debt maturity schedule is on their web site

https://www.rclinvestor.com/content/uploads/2023/09/RCG-2Q23-Public-Schedule.pdf

[Morecruisesplz]

On 10/3/2023 at 2:16 PM, not-enough-cruising said:

"unpleasant outcomes"??

 

No different than any other booking, just cheaper and a refundable deposit

Agreed. I also wondered what the heck he was talking about.