Waitlist Multiple Cabins - What if only one of them clears?

[sitraveler]

The inquiry is about waitlist not guarantee.  Huge difference.  

[EJL2023]

4 minutes ago, sitraveler said:

The inquiry is about waitlist not guarantee.  Huge difference.  

Well it was the OP who actually then inquired about a Guarantee and how that also works.  Not to mention a wait list can become a GTY and then a confirmed. 

[Snaefell3]

5 hours ago, babysteps said:

O guarantee risk seems lower

"Risk" includes how bad an outcome is.  A cancelled guarantee simply means you have to go find another voyage to spend your refund on -- not the worst of worlds..

 

The odds of a "so sorry" letter depends upon how hard O pushes overbooking, which probably means how revenue-hungry NCLH is.  If I have a worry, it's that there's an MBA in the decision process that doesn't understand the Central Limit Theorem and that O shouldn't push overbooking to the extent NCL can.

[babysteps]

40 minutes ago, Snaefell3 said:

"Risk" includes how bad an outcome is.  A cancelled guarantee simply means you have to go find another voyage to spend your refund on -- not the worst of worlds..

 

The odds of a "so sorry" letter depends upon how hard O pushes overbooking, which probably means how revenue-hungry NCLH is.  If I have a worry, it's that there's an MBA in the decision process that doesn't understand the Central Limit Theorem and that O shouldn't push overbooking to the extent NCL can.

I'm hoping that if some non-mathy (or overly mathy?) MBA changes O's guarantee policy, that we'll hear about it first here on CC.

[Snaefell3]

45 minutes ago, babysteps said:

I'm hoping that if some non-mathy (or overly mathy?) MBA changes O's guarantee policy, that we'll hear about it first here on CC.

What's presented to the MBA is "if you overbook by 'x', you'll have a 'p'% chance of no "so sorry" letters; if you overbook by 'y' then 'q'%; and if by 'z' then 'r'%.   He then figures how much O (or NCLH?) values good will vs the associated extra revenue.  Oh!  And then Murphy's Law gets the last word.

 

"Of course the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you – if you don't play, you can't win." — R A Heinlein

[AMHuntFerry]

3 hours ago, Snaefell3 said:

"Of course the game is rigged. Don't let that stop you – if you don't play, you can't win." — R A Heinlein

I miss Heinlein...rereading one if his books at the moment.

[MEFIowa]

15 hours ago, AMHuntFerry said:

I miss Heinlein...rereading one if his books at the moment.

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress and Stormship Troopers will always be moving around. 😉

[DrHemlock]

6 minutes ago, MEFIowa said:

The Moon is a Harsh Mistress and Stormship Troopers will always be moving around. 😉

Starship Troopers.  On the other hand, the nightly show performers aboard a T/A in November could be called "Stormship Troupers."

Edited February 24 by DrHemlock

[MEFIowa]

13 minutes ago, DrHemlock said:

... the nightly show performers aboard a T/A in November could be called "Stormship Troupers."

Maybe they should perform at Farnham's Freehold?

[AMHuntFerry]

5 hours ago, MEFIowa said:

Maybe they should perform at Farnham's Freehold?

That's what I just started re-reading!

[Lastdance]

Well, since I haven’t taken my very first O cruise, maybe I’ll be moved up to the category above my PH1, or maybe I live in Dreamland, just this side of Completely Doubtful!😜