CCL places new ship order, none for HAL

[BermudaBound2014]

I know there was discussion on one of these threads with people anticipating a new build order being placed for Holland America. 

 

 Yesterday CCL placed 3 new build orders. All 230,000 g/t ships for Carnival cruise line. Nothing on order for HAL. 

 

 

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/shipbuilding-equipment/carnival-cruise-line-roll-order-three-big-new-ships-fincantieri

[POA1]

Darn! I was hoping for an Enormodam with a rock wall and go carts.

[Kay S]

What the world needs is a few more mega ships. 😐  CCL, thanks for not ordering one for HAL.

[BermudaBound2014]

19 minutes ago, Kay S said:

What the world needs is a few more mega ships. 😐  CCL, thanks for not ordering one for HAL.

 

HAL ships are aging out so they need new ships to compete but HAL clientele isn't the mega ship type and Mega ships are where the profit is. 

 

It's an interesting challenge. 

Edited July 23 by BermudaBound2014

[Heartgrove]

The Cunard Queen Anne was to be the fourth Pinnacle-class for HAL. I wonder if that was intended to be the Rotterdam (VII) but once that hull was instead allocated to Cunard, the Ryndam became the Rotterdam.

[TRLD]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

HAL ships are aging out so they need new ships to compete but HAL clientele isn't the mega ship type and Mega ships are where the profit is. 

 

It's an interesting challenge. 

If you look at HALs past history they tend to order in groups of 3 with the order for the next group placed 5 years after the delivery of the last ship from the previous set.

 

If they follow that pattern their next series should be ordered in 2026.  So until then nothing unexpected.

[TRLD]

3 hours ago, Heartgrove said:

The Cunard Queen Anne was to be the fourth Pinnacle-class for HAL. I wonder if that was intended to be the Rotterdam (VII) but once that hull was instead allocated to Cunard, the Ryndam became the Rotterdam.

Not quite. When the queen Anne was ordered (the order placed) it was ordered for Cunard. It was never ordered for HAL

[BermudaBound2014]

15 minutes ago, TRLD said:

If you look at HALs past history they tend to order in groups of 3 with the order for the next group placed 5 years after the delivery of the last ship from the previous set.

 

If they follow that pattern their next series should be ordered in 2026.  So until then nothing unexpected.

 

 

February 2024: CCL ordered just one ship

March 2024: CCL ordered just one ship

 

That's five orders in 2024. All of them Excel class at 230,000 GT and all to sail as Carnival Cruise line ships

 

Edited July 24 by BermudaBound2014

[howiefrommd]

My guess is you order new ships where you are making money.  Considering  HAL is doing everything they can do to fill ships (ie last minute deal fiasco) I think their concern is filing ships, not ordering new ones.  

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, howiefrommd said:

My guess is you order new ships where you are making money.  Considering  HAL is doing everything they can do to fill ships (ie last minute deal fiasco) I think their concern is filing ships, not ordering new ones.  

yep-  CCL has openly stated they plan to reduce capacity on HAL, Princess, etc… while increasing capacity on Carnival, Aida, and P&O.
 

The 5 new ship orders for Carnival in 2024 is further evidence. However; CCL will need to build ships for companies other than Carnjcal, Aida, and P&O if they wish to remain this diverse. 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

52 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

February 2024: CCL ordered just one ship

March 2024: CCL ordered just one ship

 

That's five orders in 2024. All of them Excel class at 230,000 GT and all to sail as Carnival Cruise line ships

 

Editing my post- only two of the new builds are excel class.
 

The 3 ships ordered today are a brand new class. 

Edited July 24 by BermudaBound2014

[Heartgrove]

1 hour ago, TRLD said:

Not quite. When the queen Anne was ordered (the order placed) it was ordered for Cunard. It was never ordered for HAL

 

I never said it was ordered, only planned. The story was different for the Acadia. The only P&O ship with a Cunard funnel.

[Heartgrove]

1 hour ago, TRLD said:

If you look at HALs past history they tend to order in groups of 3 with the order for the next group placed 5 years after the delivery of the last ship from the previous set.

 

If they follow that pattern their next series should be ordered in 2026.  So until then nothing unexpected.

 

There were four S-class, four R-class, four Vista-class, and then two Signature-class. The Pinnacle-class has been the first time in recent history to have only three in the class. But I agree with the 2026-2028 timeframe - barring unseen business problems.

 

If Carnival Corporation would continue to gut Costa Crociere, the Costa Deliziosa would make a good candidate to transfer to HAL as it is only 14 years (2010) old and similar in layout to the HAL fleet.

[TRLD]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

yep-  CCL has openly stated they plan to reduce capacity on HAL, Princess, etc… while increasing capacity on Carnival, Aida, and P&O.
 

The 5 new ship orders for Carnival in 2024 is further evidence. However; CCL will need to build ships for companies other than Carnjcal, Aida, and P&O if they wish to remain this diverse. 

 

 

Actually other then the elimination of P&O Australia they did not say thar were reducing. Most of the change was moving P&O Australia ships to Carnival. They did say that they were adding to the Carnival, P&O Australia and Aida which was mostly due to the move.

 

As far as the Carnival ship orders Carnival has 21,684 capacity worth of ships that will age out in the next 4 years. Add to that the 7,226 capacity in P&O ships that will age out in that time. That gives Carnival almost 30,000 worth of passenger capacity just to remain even by the time the orders come on line.

 

Plus the need to move ships to Australia to cover the business formerly handled by P&O Australia.

Edited July 24 by TRLD

[TRLD]

5 minutes ago, Heartgrove said:

 

There were four S-class, four R-class, four Vista-class, and then two Signature-class. The Pinnacle-class has been the first time in recent history to have only three in the class. But I agree with the 2026-2028 timeframe - barring unseen business problems.

 

If Carnival Corporation would continue to gut Costa Crociere, the Costa Deliziosa would make a good candidate to transfer to HAL as it is only 14 years (2010) old and similar in layout to the HAL fleet.

Suggest Aida has some ships that would be a better fit in the low 2000 passenger size, similar features and 10 to 14 years old. Aida has doubled their capacity since 2015 by adding large ships.

 

Just as with P&O UK new builds for Aida have been 5000+ passenger size.

[iceman93]

I personally feel like HAL has to eliminate a few older ships before adding anything new to the fleet.  And while I would personally like the new ships to be on the smaller side, that's probably not realistic.  I guess we'll see what happens over these next few years...

[HappyInVan]

Not a surprise.

 

Larger new ships are cheaper to operate, and come with all the features that new cruisers expect.

 

In addition, it is cheaper to run LNG ships. One estimate I read was that Low Sulphur Fuel was 40% more expensive than standard fuel; whilst LNG was 20% less expensive. So, no-brainer   to use LNG to lower costs and meet emissions targets.

 

The problem for older ships is that they become even more uncompetitive to run. What will CCL do?

 

Edited July 24 by HappyInVan

[ellieanne]

I'm happy HAL isn't getting a mega-ship yet, though they have long stated that they will not go bigger than PanaMax in their ship sizes.
I realize larger ships attract more of the younger cruisers, but there needs to be a place for mid-price cruisers who don't like or want all the bells & whistles. I can't afford the premium lines, but can afford a HAL cruise. I don't want climbing walls, loud decor or venues. I want the quiet days and relaxed atmosphere of HAL cruises. I want to be able to just relax with a beverage and my book on the ship, and maybe see a low-key show at night, and if the venues close at 11 pm, that's fine with me. HAL offers what I want, and the other lines do not.
I hope that Carnival Corp remembers that some of their cruisers (and stock holders) want low-key cruises, with mid-range luxury.

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, ellieanne said:

I hope that Carnival Corp remembers that some of their cruisers (and stock holders) want low-key cruises, with mid-range luxury.

 

I think this is an important point. The question for the company is 'just how many is some'? 

 

HAL has a great niche right now in offering longer cruises with more unique itineraries at mainstream pricing. While it is unlikely I would book a 7 day bus run on HAL, I am booked on two longer cruises in 2025 (22 and 35 days respectively). 

 

I'd like to see CCL commit to building new ships for the HAL niche. I'm not sure how realistic that is, but I don't see them ever operating a 8,000 passenger vessel.

[howiefrommd]

3 hours ago, ellieanne said:

I hope that Carnival Corp remembers that some of their cruisers (and stock holders) want low-key cruises, with mid-range luxury.

What is articulated within your parentheses is its own answer.  CCLs primary responsibility is to it's stockholders.   Albeit we wish it would be different, but as cruisers we are customers.  Customers are solely the revenue stream for this or any other public corporation.  If HAL was generating the type of return on investment that the Carnival oriented ships are, there would be new builds or repurposing of other ships.   As the present fleets continues to mature, the clock is definitely ticking.

[FlaMariner]

I wish we could see a breakdown by Carnival Corp brand of "rate of return".

 

This press release indicates Carnival Cruise Line is #1.......I'm curious as to where and what return the other brands deliver.....and especially HAL. 

 

Does anyone know if that data is available?   It's not in the annual report/proxy....at least as far as I can figure out. 

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

10 hours ago, TRLD said:

Actually other then the elimination of P&O Australia they did not say thar were reducing. Most of the change was moving P&O Australia ships to Carnival. They did say that they were adding to the Carnival, P&O Australia and Aida which was mostly due to the move.

 

As far as the Carnival ship orders Carnival has 21,684 capacity worth of ships that will age out in the next 4 years. Add to that the 7,226 capacity in P&O ships that will age out in that time. That gives Carnival almost 30,000 worth of passenger capacity just to remain even by the time the orders come on line.

 

Plus the need to move ships to Australia to cover the business formerly handled by P&O Australia.

 

It is more than just the movement of P&O Australia. CCL also moved several Costa ships to Carnival and the 5 new build orders speak volumes. 

 

I will give you that they didn't say they were actually reducing capacity (because they really can't say that now can they? 😉 ) But we can read between the lines since no new orders are placed for any company other than Carnival thru 2033. No matter how much HAL passengers love the HAL fleet, they will age out.

 

 CCL did say that the overall growth of the entire company (including HAL, Princess, Costa, Cunard, Seabourn) will be less than 2% thru 2028 and the vast majority of that growth will be new ships for Carnival. This is further evidenced by 5 new build orders for Carnival mega ships since February reading into 2033.

 

While our company’s overall growth between 2019 – 2028 is projected to be less than 2% (CAGR), the majority will be for Carnival Cruise Line, which will grow by approximately 50% over that time period.”

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-strategically-align-portfolio-and-absorb-po

 

 

In terms of building ships for the future, CCL is putting all of their eggs in the Carnival Brand basket in a BIG way. That isn't to say they won't add new builds orders for HAL, but those new builds are not yet on the books and I suspect some of the current fleet will age out before any new ship builds can be completed. 

[Kamfish642]

8 hours ago, iceman93 said:

I personally feel like HAL has to eliminate a few older ships before adding anything new to the fleet.  And while I would personally like the new ships to be on the smaller side, that's probably not realistic.  I guess we'll see what happens over these next few years...

My guess is that the Pinnacle class is as small as HAL will go in the future.  Hopefully nothing larger.

[TRLD]

41 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

It is more than just the movement of P&O Australia. CCL also moved several Costa ships to Carnival and the 5 new build orders speak volumes. 

 

I will give you that they didn't say they were actually reducing capacity (because they really can't say that now can they? 😉 ) But we can read between the lines since no new orders are placed for any company other than Carnival thru 2033. No matter how much HAL passengers love the HAL fleet, they will age out.

 

 CCL did say that the overall growth of the entire company (including HAL, Princess, Costa, Cunard, Seabourn) will be less than 2% thru 2028 and the vast majority of that growth will be new ships for Carnival. This is further evidenced by 5 new build orders for Carnival mega ships since February reading into 2033.

 

While our company’s overall growth between 2019 – 2028 is projected to be less than 2% (CAGR), the majority will be for Carnival Cruise Line, which will grow by approximately 50% over that time period.”

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-strategically-align-portfolio-and-absorb-po

 

 

In terms of building ships for the future, CCL is putting all of their eggs in the Carnival Brand basket in a BIG way. That isn't to say they won't add new builds orders for HAL, but those new builds are not yet on the books and I suspect some of the current fleet will age out before any new ship builds can be completed. 

Considering the debt load that CCL has not surprising that they are only growing those lines by less than 2 percent by 2028. Also not surprising that current orders went to Carnival considering the capacity they need to replace. Especially since the new orders are the largest that to be built in Italy. A bit more lead time. As recently with NCL the most recent orders are capacity place holders since construction will not start for years.

 

You keep trying to push an agenda about HAL when one would not expect new orders for them for another 2 years. About the same time when one would expect another Princess order based upon recent build history and fleet age.  

Edited July 24 by TRLD

[BermudaBound2014]

37 minutes ago, TRLD said:

You keep trying to push an agenda about HAL when one would not expect new orders for them for another 2 years. About the same time when one would expect another Princess order based upon recent build history and fleet age.  

 

I don't believe I'm pushing an agenda as I believe everything I have posted is factual not speculation. At this time the company IS putting all their new build orders in the Carnival Brand basket. It's undeniable. But regardless, please help me to understand your logic.

 

Negating that the cost to operate a cruise ship rises at 25 years, the current average age of a cruise ship is approximately 30 years. New ships orders take 1-2 years to build IF the company can find a building dock. If HAL placed an order today, the soonest it could start building is 2027 (highly unlikely) making the ship finished in roughly 2029 (again highly unlikely). 

 

But lets give your theory the benefit of the doubt and say CCL will order a new ship for HAL in 2026/2027, find a dock to build it, and complete the build by when, 2030?. Again, I believe this is highly unlikely and any new build orders placed in 2026/27 would be completed in 2033/34 as more realistic timeframe (that part is speculation on my part, but it seems logical, no?). Since you expect CCL to place an order for a HAL ship in 2026/27, when do you speculate that ship would be completed? Not trying to be argumentative, just wanting to understand your logic.

 

By your generous timeline for new builds, the Volendam and Zaandam will be 'aged out' by industry standards before the new ship can be built, and the Zuiderdam, Oosterdam, and Westerdam will all be older than 25 years. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

37 minutes ago, TRLD said:

Also not surprising that current orders went to Carnival considering the capacity they need to replace.

 

Help me to understand this. The two oldest ships in Carnival are small ships about the same age/size as Zaandam and Volendam. The spirit, pride, legend, and conquest are also older ships but ironically they are about the same age as the vista class.  In terms of percentage of the fleet over 25 years, doesn't HAL and Carnival have about the same capacity needing replacement? 

 

 

 

Half of Holland America's fleet will be more than 25 years old by 2032. As far as I know (and please correct me if wrong), that would make HAL operating both the oldest and most expensive fleet in the mainstream category. 

 

 

 

Edited July 24 by BermudaBound2014