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Is Holland America Line falling behind?


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31 minutes ago, ldtr1 said:

Eventually they will time it out probably in 27 - 29 depending upon exactly when they make their next order, which will probably be in 2026.  

 

Does "probably" here mean "I'm guessing" or is there some actual information on Holland removing ships or obtaining new ones?

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30 minutes ago, Wehwalt said:

Does "probably" here mean "I'm guessing" or is there some actual information on Holland removing ships or obtaining new ones?

Estimates based upon the past behavior and timing of orders, the actual change in behavior concerning the various lines keeping ships past 24 years. The current CCL financial reports concerning profit and debt levels.

 

so no new data, but not a total guess either. More of a projection using existing public info. Could be right, could be wrong. Let you know for sure over the next 5 years.

 

One key indicator is how far in advance of its new build delivery that Carnival starts retiring some of its oldest ships. That will be an indicator of what other brands will do once they place new orders.

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28 minutes ago, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

Keep a eye on the Costa ships.

Costa does not have anything that would make a good move to HAL. Aida on the other hand has some 2000 passenger ships in the 10 to 14 year range that would fit right in with some cosmetic remodeling (an alpine cabin decor setting for the buffet would not fit with HAL, the the indoor pools and the other main layouts are pretty similar). Especially since Aida has gone with 5000 passenger ships with its latest builds, greatly increasing line capacity just before Covid.

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1 hour ago, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

Keep a eye on the Costa ships.

Costa Deliziosa is 98% the same as the Vista Class ships, built in 2010.  Yes, the decor, carpets etc., would need to be changed to some degree, but HAL can give them a familiar feel with the HAL crew, menus, etc.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, CNSJ said:

Costa Deliziosa is 98% the same as the Vista Class ships, built in 2010.  Yes, the decor, carpets etc., would need to be changed to some degree, but HAL can give them a familiar feel with the HAL crew, menus, etc.

 

 

However, Costa has already transferred its excess capacity to Carnival. It is already smaller than pre covid. Its excess ships got moved to Carnival without any major remodeling.  The Carnival Italian experience.

 

Always possible, but doubt it will happen. Low probability on Aida as will but they have multiple ships that will fit and substantial capacity growth just before covid.

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9 hours ago, CNSJ said:

Well, Fred Olsen Cruise line bought two R class ships, refurb'd them and are selling cabins at about 50% higher cost than HAL does.  

 

Right! Fred Olsen sent their Borealis (former Rotterdam) for a one year refit. Anyone have any reports on the ship today?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_Borealis#Sold_to_Fred_Olsen_cruises

 

I wouldn't mind travelling on a ship with the kind of renewal as what NCL did for the Spirit ($100m refit).

 

We've already discussed the possibility of new medium ships at the current price point. I've also raised the possibility of a transfer from another CCL company. The problem is that the smallest available ships are of the Vista-class size.

 

Will it be possible for a Vista-class ship to replace the Volendam on the world itinerary? Well, HAL already has Vista-class ships.

 

No, HAL has much bigger problems than the replacement of aging ships. The market is changing. Strategically, where is HAL's future POSITIONING.

 

CCL has Cunard. Will HAL remain Cunard-lite. CCL has Princess. Can HAL survive as Princess-small? Or, will HAL logically downsize as an adventure exploration brand?

 

That's why the identity of replacement ships is important. It points the way forward. The silence from HAL is not a good sign.

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3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Right! Fred Olsen sent their Borealis (former Rotterdam) for a one year refit. Anyone have any reports on the ship today?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_Borealis#Sold_to_Fred_Olsen_cruises

 

I wouldn't mind travelling on a ship with the kind of renewal as what NCL did for the Spirit ($100m refit).

 

We've already discussed the possibility of new medium ships at the current price point. I've also raised the possibility of a transfer from another CCL company. The problem is that the smallest available ships are of the Vista-class size.

 

Will it be possible for a Vista-class ship to replace the Volendam on the world itinerary? Well, HAL already has Vista-class ships.

 

No, HAL has much bigger problems than the replacement of aging ships. The market is changing. Strategically, where is HAL's future POSITIONING.

 

CCL has Cunard. Will HAL remain Cunard-lite. CCL has Princess. Can HAL survive as Princess-small? Or, will HAL logically downsize as an adventure exploration brand?

 

That's why the identity of replacement ships is important. It points the way forward. The silence from HAL is not a good sign.

This is how MSC are rapidly growing market share, new ships every year of a huge size plus the smaller luxury all suite ones. If you’ve got families MSC have everything on newer ships, water parks, dodgem cars, bowling , gaming rooms etc. plenty for adults as well. If you don’t want many  kids you pick their  luxury brands or travel yacht club.

Ive picked HAL for particular itineraries which is where they do score highly but cruisers now expect the ships to also have everything else.

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4 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Right! Fred Olsen sent their Borealis (former Rotterdam) for a one year refit. Anyone have any reports on the ship today?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_Borealis#Sold_to_Fred_Olsen_cruises

 

I wouldn't mind travelling on a ship with the kind of renewal as what NCL did for the Spirit ($100m refit).

 

We've already discussed the possibility of new medium ships at the current price point. I've also raised the possibility of a transfer from another CCL company. The problem is that the smallest available ships are of the Vista-class size.

 

Will it be possible for a Vista-class ship to replace the Volendam on the world itinerary? Well, HAL already has Vista-class ships.

 

No, HAL has much bigger problems than the replacement of aging ships. The market is changing. Strategically, where is HAL's future POSITIONING.

 

CCL has Cunard. Will HAL remain Cunard-lite. CCL has Princess. Can HAL survive as Princess-small? Or, will HAL logically downsize as an adventure exploration brand?

 

That's why the identity of replacement ships is important. It points the way forward. The silence from HAL is not a good sign.

This is too funny. For years you have been posting about CCL and HAL being doomed to fail. When data comes out showing that they are doing well you keep grasping for another straw.  Lets see what are some of your preevious theories  CCL.was goingbto fail because of its debt, CCL was going to sell HAL because of its debt, HAL occupancy was down bevause they were doing 1 dollar down sales, because they had low fares on some competitive routes, etc

 

You have repeated the same things over and over. Yet they do not come to pass.

 

CCL had 1.7billion in profit during thelast quarter. Debt is now down to 26 billion and dropping on a nice rate, HAL financial metric appear to be doing quite well according to both the recent (as yet unverified announcment,) as well  looking at publicly available sources such as Cruise Market Watch.

 

No HAL is not Cunard lite. Cunard has its smaller niche of a more formal style with its own set of loyal cruisers and HAL has its own niche of the smallest average ship size of the 3 mainstream NA adult focused lines, callimg on the most different ports (around 550 compared to Princess 450 and Celenrities 350). They will continue to fill that niche with some incremental chamges as the market demands, the same as their competition.

 

When debt get a bit lower then ship orders will come for HAL and the other CCL lines  in the meantime existing ships will be kept a few years longer.

 

 

Edited by ldtr1
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1 hour ago, cruiser man 60 said:

This is how MSC are rapidly growing market share, new ships every year of a huge size plus the smaller luxury all suite ones. If you’ve got families MSC have everything on newer ships, water parks, dodgem cars, bowling , gaming rooms etc. plenty for adults as well. If you don’t want many  kids you pick their  luxury brands or travel yacht club.

Ive picked HAL for particular itineraries which is where they do score highly but cruisers now expect the ships to also have everything else.

Not really. the luxury or premium brands have luxury and premium pricing. HAL has its niche for an adult focused line  doing unique itineraries, at mass market pricing, primarily in competition with Princess and Celebrity, while aldo attracting passengers from outside North America. 

 

The MSC large ships are doing what large ships do very repetitive shorter routes in competitive locations.

 

The premium and luxury brands have higher price points, usually a small number of ships. Which means thst while they do have some unique itineraries they are not always the most convenient to get to or to find a cruise that matches your schedule.

 

There are mamy different choices in cruising, aimed at different segments of the market. HAL is positioned in a pretty unique one because of its pricing and itineraries.

Edited by ldtr1
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35 minutes ago, ldtr1 said:

This is too funny. For years you have been posting about CCL and HAL being doomed to fail. When data comes out showing that they are doing well you keep grasping for another straw.  Lets see what are some of your preevious theories  CCL.was goingbto fail because of its debt, CCL was going to sell HAL because of its debt, HAL occupancy was down bevause they were doing 1 dollar down sales, because they had low fares on some competitive routes, etc

 

You have repeated the same things over and over. Yet they do not come to pass.

 

CCL had 1.7billion in profit during thelast quarter. Debt is now down to 26 billion and dropping on a nice rate, HAL financial metric appear to be doing quite well according to both the recent (as yet unverified announcment,) as well  looking at publicly available sources such as Cruise Market Watch.

 

No HAL is not Cunard lite. Cunard has its smaller niche of a more formal style with its own set of loyal cruisers and HAL has its own niche of the smallest average ship size of the 3 mainstream NA adult focused lines, callimg on the most different ports (around 550 compared to Princess 450 and Celenrities 350). They will continue to fill that niche with some incremental chamges as the market demands, the same as their competition.

 

When debt get a bit lower then ship orders will come for HAL and the other CCL lines  in the meantime existing ships will be kept a few years longer.

 

 

Very well said, Holland ships are full.

Guest are happy, and so are we.

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The CCL profit for this last quarter was basically the same as for the same quarter in 2019 pre Covid around 1.7 billion.

 

Prior to Covid CCL tended to operate with 8 billion in long term debt.

 

Currently around 3 times that level. Current profit levels should easily support a reduction in debt of around 4 billion per year, even with some new ship construction taking place. Expect CCL to pace new ship orders in such a way to continue to reduce debt overall with a goal of getting back to that debt level of 8 to 10 billion over the next 5-6 years or so.  Debt for new ship orders will be at very attractive rates due to subsidies from countries hosting the shipyards. Once they have debt in the 8 to 10 billion range then one can expect a pace of ship construction similar to preCovid with a more limited pace until then.

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There are people wearing blinkers. But, the world has changed after covid. Inflation has pushed costs much higher. There's a rash of big exciting efficient ships. Competition in the industry is intense. Cruise company stock prices are lingering while stock indexes and gold are reaching ever new highs.

 

Interest rates are stuck. The 10-year Treasury is back over 4%. What's the prime? Yet, everyone who matters is ordering new ships except You Know Who.

 

Meanwhile, CCL is showing signs of life at HQ. Focusing on Carnival and Princess. Whilst closing P&O Australia. HAL customers would like reassurances, but...

 

ostrich head in the sand.jpg

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2 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

There are people wearing blinkers. But, the world has changed after covid. Inflation has pushed costs much higher. There's a rash of big exciting efficient ships. Competition in the industry is intense. Cruise company stock prices are lingering while stock indexes and gold are reaching ever new highs.

 

Interest rates are stuck. The 10-year Treasury is back over 4%. What's the prime? Yet, everyone who matters is ordering new ships except You Know Who.

 

Meanwhile, CCL is showing signs of life at HQ. Focusing on Carnival and Princess. Whilst closing P&O Australia. HAL customers would like reassurances, but...

 

ostrich head in the sand.jpg

Just keep repeating the same think, you said the same thing before.

 

P&O Australia got shutdown because

 

1. Very small brand on 3 ships

2. Niche easily filled by Carnival since it was the discount Australian line very similar to Carnival demographics in the Australian market

3. They got their ships from Princess. No more coming from that source for several years. 

 

None of which apply to HAL.

 

Actually CCL is not focusing on Princess. No new ship orders for Princess since Covid, only completing 2 ships ordered pre covid.

 

Keep grasping for straws and tryimg to spin it into a bad hypothesis for HAL. As with your past attempt the result will be different.

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5 hours ago, Gail & Marty sailing away said:

Very well said, Holland ships are full.

Guest are happy, and so are we.

 

You can fill any ship at the right price. But, is it the right price for the company?

 

Fact is that in the Caribbean, HAL is still struggling to fill its ships. Low fares and 3rd/4th guests free. Rotterdam departs FLL on Oct 27. Veranda and below are still available. Unobstructed Veranda priced just C$150 above obstructed. Choose your own Stateroom still available. Many Deck 4 Veranda with the big balcony still available aft.

 

Who knows how many Standby pax are going to be delighted?

 

A perusal of this forum will show many concerns and problems. Aging ships? IT problems? Difficulty in getting refunds? Poor CS?

 

Every company has its strengths AND weaknesses. The inability to solve the problems has an effect on customer royalty. Ultimately, it shows up on the prices it can charge to discerning customers. Competition is good for the consumer! 👍

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8 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

You can fill any ship at the right price. But, is it the right price for the company?

 

Fact is that in the Caribbean, HAL is still struggling to fill its ships. Low fares and 3rd/4th guests free. Rotterdam departs FLL on Oct 27. Veranda and below are still available. Unobstructed Veranda priced just C$150 above obstructed. Choose your own Stateroom still available. Many Deck 4 Veranda with the big balcony still available aft.

 

Who knows how many Standby pax are going to be delighted?

 

A perusal of this forum will show many concerns and problems. Aging ships? IT problems? Difficulty in getting refunds? Poor CS?

 

Every company has its strengths AND weaknesses. The inability to solve the problems has an effect on customer royalty. Ultimately, it shows up on the prices it can charge to discerning customers. Competition is good for the consumer! 👍

the prices are not different with other lines in the very competitive  caribbean market. A market which is not really a main focus for HAL. Just a place to put a couole of ships during the winter, not quite like Royal where the Caribbean accounts for over half of their passengers.

 

Pretty easy to look at public data sources to get revenue performance numbers on HAL. Looking at how well HAL is doing over the past year its revenue divided by fleet capacity is substantially better rhan Carnival and Princess, and is very close to Celebrity.

 

Much better to look at overall numbers instead of pulling a low fare or two and then try and claim that it represent that the line is failing.

 

You tried the same thing with the Alaska market a few months ago when it was actually fairly difficult to find space on HAL ships.

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On 9/5/2024 at 1:28 PM, stevenr597 said:

But there is a market for cruise lines which operate a "step above" the main stream lines such as RCCL and NCL.  Such lines include Oceania and Azamara.  Both of these lines do have smaller ships.  

What they offer is service, service, and more service, as well as excellent food and tasteful entertainment.  That also offer itineraries that are different from the typical mainstream destinations.  

H.A. would be a perfect fit for such a cruise line. 

 

On 9/5/2024 at 2:14 PM, TRLD said:

However their average price point is about twice that of HAL. With their new ships half the size,or less, of HALs.  Really not a good fit.

 

HAL.is in a unique place as far as its positioning. Pricing competitive with mass market lines, with smaller average ship size, and longer, more unique itineraries.

 

I have to agree with TRLD on this. I've sailed at least a few times on Oceania, Azamara and more than a few times on HAL. 

 

Oceania and Azamara have a lot of similarities. HAL, not so much. There is a huge difference between having fewer than 700 passengers on board and having 2000+ (all of HAL's ships with exception of Volendam and Zaandam). And I'm not just referring to food and entertainment.

 

 

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4 hours ago, ldtr1 said:

The CCL profit for this last quarter was basically the same as for the same quarter in 2019 pre Covid around 1.7 billion.

 

 

According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, $186 in Sept 2024 is equal to $100 in buying power in January 2020 for consumers.

 

https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

 

That's how much higher the cruise fares should be. In reality, earning the same 2019 amount in 2024 is just not enough.

 

Here's an important lesson I learned about financial markets. The market is always right! 😏

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"When will HAL get new ships?" is an interesting question, but unless you hold CCL stock not really an important one unless you think they need to retire and replace their older ships in the very near future. 

 

So I ask you, does HAL need new ships? Not from a business standpoint, but from a customer satisfaction one. Are HAL's ships getting too old, worn down, unreliable, or dated to be enjoyable? Are they missing amenities that newer vessels regular offer? Are you just bored with them? And if so to any of these, could this instead be solved at drydock?

 

I think CCL is going to continue to focus on megaships and shorter itineraries. That's what makes them the most money, so that's where they'll spend the most money. Even after their debt is paid down. That doesn't mean they'll get rid of HAL, but they will expand the fleet very slowly if at all and replace ships only as they absolutely need to. 

 

It's only when they do start letting ships get really threadbare or even shrink the fleet without any word of new ships that HAL fans should really start worrying. I don't think we're there yet. 

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1 hour ago, ldtr1 said:

A market which is not really a main focus for HAL. Just a place to put a couole of ships during the winter....not quite like Royal where the Caribbean accounts for over half of their passengers.

 

Incorrect.

 

HAL has 5 of 11 ships sailing the 'very competitive Caribbean market" January-March 2025 (NS, Volendam, Eurodam, Rotterdam, & Zaandam).

 

In 2026 they have 5 larger ships sailing the Caribbean January -March (NS, Kdam, Zuiderdam, Eurodam, & Rotterdam); Including 2 of 3 Pinnacles.

 

Granted HAL is trying some slightly longer itineraries to differentiate from typical bus runs, but I would hope we can all agree that the 'very competitive Caribbean market' is hardly just a place for HAL put a couple ships during the winter; given that HAL is placing 45% of it's ships there.

 

 

18 hours ago, ldtr1 said:

However, Costa has already transferred its excess capacity to Carnival.

 

And you know this how? I suspect that it's possible Costa may still have have additional excess capacity, especially given their performance data. This seems like another wildly speculative claim, but you must know more than I do.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, ldtr1 said:

Pretty easy to look at public data sources to get revenue performance numbers on HAL.

 

You used sources as plural. Please provide the links (plural) to the data sets you are using to collect performance data on specific lines.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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21 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, $186 in Sept 2024 is equal to $100 in buying power in January 2020 for consumers.

 

https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

 

That's how much higher the cruise fares should be. In reality, earning the same 2019 amount in 2024 is just not enough.

 

Here's an important lesson I learned about financial markets. The market is always right! 😏

Not disputing the gist of your point, but $100 in January 2020 is equivalent to $122 in Sept. 2024, per your linked calculator. (I think you may have input January 2000, rather than 2020.)

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2 minutes ago, Music123 said:

Not disputing the gist of your point, but $100 in January 2020 is equivalent to $122 in Sept. 2024, per your linked calculator. (I think you may have input January 2000, rather than 2020.)

 

Oops! You are absolutely right. My mistake.

 

IMO, we can look at the ability of Fred Olsen to charge 50% more (Post #270) for the old HAL ships, as an indication of what HAL needs to charge to regain its mojo. Bearing in mind that Fred Olsen paid just $37m for the old ships but spend a year on the refit...

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred._Olsen_Cruise_Lines

 

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54 minutes ago, Menocchio said:

"When will HAL get new ships?" is an interesting question, but unless you hold CCL stock not really an important one unless you think they need to retire and replace their older ships in the very near future. 

 

...... Are HAL's ships getting too old, worn down, unreliable, or dated to be enjoyable?

 

I know I'm going to collect more haters from the camp of folks who love the Zaandam. It goes with out saying that this is just my opinion.

 

I was very much interested in a Zaandam sailing. In researching I found that the bathrooms have undergone a very inconsistent pattern of renovation and some are, well, brutally past the need for renovation..

 

image.png.b85a463b15c5b4d75de4734f5927febf.png

 

image.png.044a771938b08c3ad5261e2a0636e70e.png

 

 

image.png.d9e0d20592aa16f11aef54d2f89c4c83.png

 

 

 

And while all ships have complaints, the Zaandam seemed to get more complaints than others in terms of air con/heat not working and sewer smells. I got pimped on a Radiance of the Seas sailing with a hallway that smelled of sewer and, while it's unavoidable even on new ships, there are some ships that these problems seems more common and I choose to avoid those ships. 

 

 

54 minutes ago, Menocchio said:

And if so to any of these, could this instead be solved at drydock?

 

They absolutely could be, but likely not without an extensive drydock budget. Given that HAL is only doing a 'basic' 8 Million dollar drydock on her sister ship Volendam, it seems unlikely. More importantly, how did HAL let this bathroom get so bad? Maybe it's just this one cabin, and certainly there are renovated cabins that I would be perfectly happy in, but overall photos and videos from online confirm (to me) that this ship is in need of a serios drydock.  Of course, I should be grateful to just be sailing any ship, and truth be told, for the right price/itinerary I might be swayed to booking Zaandam knowing what to expect.

 

 

54 minutes ago, Menocchio said:

I think CCL is going to continue to focus on megaships and shorter itineraries. That's what makes them the most money, so that's where they'll spend the most money.

 

Agreed, and Josh Weinstein said as much at the last conference call. Now, if what Mary says is true and HAL has, in fact, surpassed P&O and Aida becoming the 2nd highest in terms of 'financial performance' (whatever that means because the parameters of that term are still an unknown); I would expect some of that 'good performance' to be invested back into it's aging ships.

 

 

 

54 minutes ago, Menocchio said:

 It's only when they do start letting ships get really threadbare or even shrink the fleet without any word of new ships that HAL fans should really start worrying. I don't think we're there yet. 

 

We might not be there yet, but on some of the older gals we're getting very close. I voted with my wallet and skipped booking the Zaandam. Those of you who love her can vote with your wallet and book away :).

 

Different strokes.

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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51 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, $186 in Sept 2024 is equal to $100 in buying power in January 2020 for consumers.

 

https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

 

That's how much higher the cruise fares should be. In reality, earning the same 2019 amount in 2024 is just not enough.

 

Here's an important lesson I learned about financial markets. The market is always right! 😏

I suspect that calculator is a bit off sunce it would imply an inflation of 87% since 2019. If one looks at the actual CPI numbers. CPI in 2019 was 255.7 compared to an ending 2024 estimate of 314.4 according to the Minneapolis Fed. That would be an inflation of 21.8%  while still a material number it is certainly not 87%.

 

Now if one want to apply it to the profit number, which be valid, one should also apply its impact of the value of the debt, which would mean an equivalent level compared to 2019 would be about 10 billion.

 

Also where you tried to make a big thing out out of the 4 % interest, one should not that while that rate is high compared to recent history. Interest rates were higher, often much higher from 1960 to 2005, really not an extreme level  

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1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Incorrect.

 

HAL has 5 of 11 ships sailing the 'very competitive Caribbean market" January-March 2025 (NS, Volendam, Eurodam, Rotterdam, & Zaandam).

 

In 2026 they have 5 larger ships sailing the Caribbean January -March (NS, Kdam, Zuiderdam, Eurodam, & Rotterdam); Including 2 of 3 Pinnacles.

 

Granted HAL is trying some slightly longer itineraries to differentiate from typical bus runs, but I would hope we can all agree that the 'very competitive Caribbean market' is hardly just a place for HAL put a couple ships during the winter; given that HAL is placing 45% of it's ships there.

 

 

 

And you know this how? I suspect that it's possible Costa may still have have additional excess capacity, especially given their performance data. This seems like another wildly speculative claim, but you must know more than I do.

 

 

 

 

You used sources as plural. Please provide the links (plural) to the data sets you are using to collect performance data on specific lines.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lets see  HAL may have 5 ships there during the winter,  so it is basically a place for the ships during the winter.  As you say 5 of 11. How does that compare to the Royal, NCL, and Celebrity fleets which are far more Caribbean focused.  Basically it is a place to put the ships from Alaska and Europe. HAL has far less dependency on the Caribvean than Royal, Celebrity and NCL.

 

As far as Costa goes look at fleet capacity compared to pre covid, then look at passenger numbers. They draw your own conclusions

 

As far as sources

Sec filings  gives company totals and fleet sizes. Can be used to compare with brand numbers from market watch to verify those numbers.

 

Cruise market watch

 

Carnival Analyst Call Notes

 

Numerous news reports in both industry focused and business publication

 

Various data sets released by CLIA and other cruise organizations

 

are a few.

 

In addition the are some for fee spuurces but i do not reference those in any i post here, instead relying only on public sources.

 

Currently setting down to tea. Will give more detailed response later

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