Best time to get best price

[Oceangoer2]

On 9/8/2024 at 5:43 PM, canderson said:

This one might as well have been sold out.  13 left out of 1,092.  Surprised to see so many suites pop back into inventory right after final.  They usually get snapped up on TAs:

 

Inside: 1

Ocean View: 0

Veranda: 0

Concierge: 0

Aqua: 1

Sky Suite: 5

Aqua Sky Suite: 4

Celebrity Suite: 2

 

If closer to sailing date, wouldn't they pull out SOME remaining cabins and transfer to Move Up, leaving a few for late comers?  I'm seeing that on the cruise(s) just before mine...a sudden drop in available cabins.

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Oceangoer2 said:

Love your graphic tracking!  This is Cruiseplum software or their pricing? 

Their online graphing.

 

You can see some very definite trends if you compare cruises of similar duration in the same region at a given time of year.  For example, 7-10 nights in the Med when school is/isn't in session.

[thebutlerdidit]

21 minutes ago, Oceangoer2 said:

If closer to sailing date, wouldn't they pull out SOME remaining cabins and transfer to Move Up, leaving a few for late comers?  I'm seeing that on the cruise(s) just before mine...a sudden drop in available cabins.

I was keeping a close eye on Aqua class prices for a previous cruise and saw all of the remaining cabins disappear suddenly. I’m talking well over 60 cabins, both A1 and A2. They were gone for months! It was very frustrating , because I was watching for price drops, but with no Aqua cabins showing in inventory I was out of luck.

 

As the cruise date approached, Aqua cabins started becoming available, but only 1,2, or 3  at a time and with much inflated pricing . This would make it appear that Aqua cabins had been sold out for a long time, were much desired, so commanded high prices. And commanded higher minimum Move Up bids. 
 

Sneaky!

[canderson]

18 minutes ago, thebutlerdidit said:

I was keeping a close eye on Aqua class prices for a previous cruise and saw all of the remaining cabins disappear suddenly. I’m talking well over 60 cabins, both A1 and A2. They were gone for months! It was very frustrating , because I was watching for price drops, but with no Aqua cabins showing in inventory I was out of luck.

 

As the cruise date approached, Aqua cabins started becoming available, but only 1,2, or 3  at a time and with much inflated pricing . This would make it appear that Aqua cabins had been sold out for a long time, were much desired, so commanded high prices. And commanded higher minimum Move Up bids. 
 

Sneaky!

Could also be that a group booking occurred for a block of AQ cabins, and those that later reappeared in inventory were a function of something less nefarious. 

 

At certain times, inventory starts to change and shuffle more.  Celebrity wouldn't pull an entire class out of inventory like that.  Anyone wanting an AQ would look elsewhere and Celebrity would be leaving money on the table.  They want solid bookings as early as they can get them.

 

Just before final, I'd expect to see some cancellations.  Those create new open inventory. 

Then as you get closer to sail date, guarantees and MoveUps create additional shifts between cabin classes. 

 

If inventory is scarce for a particular cruise, it's typical for prices to increase where few cabins remain and for minimum MoveUp bids to increase on any classes where few cabins remain. 

[563toM]

56 minutes ago, thebutlerdidit said:

I was keeping a close eye on Aqua class prices for a previous cruise and saw all of the remaining cabins disappear suddenly. I’m talking well over 60 cabins, both A1 and A2. They were gone for months! It was very frustrating , because I was watching for price drops, but with no Aqua cabins showing in inventory I was out of luck.

 

As the cruise date approached, Aqua cabins started becoming available, but only 1,2, or 3  at a time and with much inflated pricing . This would make it appear that Aqua cabins had been sold out for a long time, were much desired, so commanded high prices. And commanded higher minimum Move Up bids. 
 

Sneaky!

Very good observation about pulling the rooms to drive interest in them and once they reopen people are so happy to see them they are willing to pay any price.

[canderson]

58 minutes ago, Oceangoer2 said:

If closer to sailing date, wouldn't they pull out SOME remaining cabins and transfer to Move Up, leaving a few for late comers?  I'm seeing that on the cruise(s) just before mine...a sudden drop in available cabins.

No.  MoveUp's function is to shuffle pax to higher categories, not take exclusive control over any of the total inventory.  Celebrity would want any remaining open inventory freely available for purchase at the prevailing rate.  There's no financial incentive to do otherwise.  The MoveUp program doesn't sell remaining open inventory, and Celebrity wants cabins filled!

 

As an aside:  I often wonder if perhaps Celebrity has also moved the fulfillment of 'guarantee' cabins to the folks who manage the MoveUp for them.  It would make perfect sense.  There would be no possibility of conflict in prioritization of the two functions that way, and the needs of one and profit of the other could be balanced easily under one roof.

 

As for a drop in available cabins, I'd expect to see an increase in cabin availability right before final as the cancellations hit in earnest, then, depending upon the itinerary, a quick drop for one of two possible reasons.  First, I'd expect to see a few suites and perhaps AQ cabins disappear immediately as those who have waitlisted for these and won't sail in a lesser cabin class snap them up.  Would be interesting to know how many Celebrity customers do waitlist.  Then I'd look at inventory and pricing to see if an overall drop in prices may have brought out the bargain hunters.

 

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, 563toM said:

Very good observation about pulling the rooms to drive interest in them and once they reopen people are so happy to see them they are willing to pay any price.

This assumes that they haven't already just moved on to something else.

 

I think any TA will tell you that this just doesn't happen.  Lines prefer to have the bird ($) in the hand and cabins booked, and won't 'hide' inventory this way in an attempt to generate higher prices.

[Oceangoer2]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

No.  MoveUp's function is to shuffle pax to higher categories, not take exclusive control over any of the total inventory.

I understand the concept.....but you seem pretty sure in that opinion unless you know someone who knows someone?  And "exclusive control, etc" is a stretch.  They send to move up when they need to complete timely registrations for cabins, not wait for stragglers to make a reservation...IMO.

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, Oceangoer2 said:

I understand the concept.....but you seem pretty sure in that opinion unless you know someone who knows someone?  And "exclusive control, etc" is a stretch.  They send to move up when they need to complete timely registrations for cabins, not wait for stragglers to make a reservation...IMO.

Unclear if we're talking about the same thing.

 

Your earlier post (and this one) made it sound as though you were suggesting that some number of cabins were moved out of available inventory to the control of the MoveUp program, reducing the apparent number of cabins remaining to book.  Am I misunderstanding your posts?

 

[thebutlerdidit]

33 minutes ago, canderson said:

This assumes that they haven't already just moved on to something else.

 

I think any TA will tell you that this just doesn't happen.  Lines prefer to have the bird ($) in the hand and cabins booked, and won't 'hide' inventory this way in an attempt to generate higher prices.

I assure you, this did happen. It wasn’t close to sail date, it was like 8 or 9 months out. My first thought: glitch. But the issue persisted. Then I thought maybe they were planning on getting some updating done in Aqua cabins during that week so were holding as many cabins as possible back from bookings. And maybe they did just that. 

[canderson]

9 minutes ago, thebutlerdidit said:

I assure you, this did happen. It wasn’t close to sail date, it was like 8 or 9 months out. My first thought: glitch. But the issue persisted.

Having a block of cabins disappear together 8 or 9 months out still a likely a company making a group booking.  I don't doubt that you saw that at all.  Happens all the time.  You just hope it isn't a noisy group and that you're on the same sailing!

 

[hampshirelad]

We like to keep it simple

 

There is always some region  with over capacity.

 

As UK cruisers we look for bargains around "Thanksgiving" when we have observed that there are less of our fellow cruisers from the USA at sea. The weather is brilliant Nov/ early Dec , south of Spain and Portugal, Madeira, Canaries. We stay away from the Greek islands as they have been completely overrun and spoilt with big ships

 

We look for glitches in the "demand pricing model " put it on hold until you can sort air out or let it go if you change your mind.

 

Normally 12 weeks out  when the balance is due normally throws up something.

 

We tend to book late and direct with the Cruise Company as that removes a  secondary layer of terms and conditions.

 

We never limit ourselves to a particular cruise, flexibility is key.

 

We look at prices on North American cruise sites if exchange rates are moving and how their prices compare with UK prices from Southampton. We have found the company that "Like to go to their Vacations" throws up a bargain from time to  time.

 

This has worked for us over the years

 

 

[Jeremiah1212]

3 hours ago, canderson said:

This assumes that they haven't already just moved on to something else.

 

I think any TA will tell you that this just doesn't happen.  Lines prefer to have the bird ($) in the hand and cabins booked, and won't 'hide' inventory this way in an attempt to generate higher prices.

 

I'm not so sure that's true. I don't see much evidence of this on Celebrity, but it was definitely a thing when Icon first went on sale. In May 2023 Jason Liberty said this:

 

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/05/04/royal-caribbean-cruises-rcl-q1-2023-earnings-call/?source=stocklight&utm_source=stocklight&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

Question: Paul Golding -- Macquarie Group -- Analyst

Thanks so much, and congrats on the quarter. Just one for me, longer-term question here. I know you are still building load factor. But as you think about Q1 and the strength and close-in bookings, does this change the way you think about wave and how you manage the booking curve and inventory as you go into the next wave cycle, the next booking cycle? And just in the context of what we had through the pandemic, which was a bit protracted booking curve.

Thanks so much.

 

Answer: Jason Liberty -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Well, we actually, through the COVID period, had kind of shifted how we go to market with our inventory. We used to kind of put everything out there and all the suites would be sold basically right off the bat. And then you would kind of work your way down to the inside cabins.

Well, now we hold back inventory and we release it, based off, of the much more sophisticated revenue management models that we have today. And so, all of that takes into account, you know, the demand environment we are seeing and that's why I think sometimes when we get into conversations around what percent booked are you? How does it relate to this period versus that period? What we are really focused on is optimizing yield. And so, there might be periods where, you know, quarter over quarter or year over year, we want to be in a stronger book position or less -- or lesser than what we were booked in a previous period because what we're focused on is maximizing yield, which, sometimes, you know, comes with us having more inventory to sell.

 

 

 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

I'm not so sure that's true. I don't see much evidence of this on Celebrity, but it was definitely a thing when Icon first went on sale. In May 2023 Jason Liberty said this:

 

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2023/05/04/royal-caribbean-cruises-rcl-q1-2023-earnings-call/?source=stocklight&utm_source=stocklight&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article

 

...

Yes. Well, we actually, through the COVID period, had kind of shifted how we go to market with our inventory. We used to kind of put everything out there and all the suites would be sold basically right off the bat. And then you would kind of work your way down to the inside cabins.

Well, now we hold back inventory and we release it, based off, of the much more sophisticated revenue management models that we have today. 

 

Guess I haven't been paying attention to RCCL:pricing practices.  As you say, not seeing anything like this on Celebrity (or Silversea) ... yet.  Your 'perspective' puts you in a good position to have spotted this kind of activity if it had begun at Celebrity, and I'm encouraged that you've not encountered it either.  That it has occurred at RCCL is a reason to be nervous that we'll start to see it on X as well.  I've watched as new X itineraries are first announced, and don't see any evidence of this yet. 

 

With bookings as they are now, one wonders whether there's not less (and worse) price elasticity in this market as a whole.  Perhaps once all of the credit card bills for the current frenzy finally come due things will moderate a bit?  Or do we have a generation that just doesn't care?  Gen X carries the most per capita credit card debt of any demographic here in the U.S. by nearly 50% (see Forbes' Sept 24 study), but per capita has nowhere near the net worth of their elders.

 

Wish I knew where it was all headed.

 

[Iamcruzin]

10 hours ago, Lunalovegood_6 said:

Thanks everyone.  I initially thought I would book Celebrity Summit but after looking at a video of the ship I booked Royal Caribbean  Freedom of the Seas as I felt the ship offered more to kids age 10 & 11 years old. 

You made a good choice if you are traveling with kids that age. They would have been bored on the Summit.

[Jeremiah1212]

20 hours ago, canderson said:

Guess I haven't been paying attention to RCCL:pricing practices.  As you say, not seeing anything like this on Celebrity (or Silversea) ... yet.  Your 'perspective' puts you in a good position to have spotted this kind of activity if it had begun at Celebrity, and I'm encouraged that you've not encountered it either.  That it has occurred at RCCL is a reason to be nervous that we'll start to see it on X as well.  I've watched as new X itineraries are first announced, and don't see any evidence of this yet. 

 

With bookings as they are now, one wonders whether there's not less (and worse) price elasticity in this market as a whole.  Perhaps once all of the credit card bills for the current frenzy finally come due things will moderate a bit?  Or do we have a generation that just doesn't care?  Gen X carries the most per capita credit card debt of any demographic here in the U.S. by nearly 50% (see Forbes' Sept 24 study), but per capita has nowhere near the net worth of their elders.

 

Wish I knew where it was all headed.

 

I can’t rule it out. But if they do it on Celebrity it is less obvious than it was on Icon when entire decks and categories were not on sale. If they have data to support that they can hold back a dozen suites until after final payment and then sell them at a 50% premium, I don’t see why they wouldn’t. When 26/27 itineraries open up soon it may become more clear.  

[canderson]

21 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

I can’t rule it out. But if they do it on Celebrity it is less obvious than it was on Icon when entire decks and categories were not on sale. If they have data to support that they can hold back a dozen suites until after final payment and then sell them at a 50% premium, I don’t see why they wouldn’t. When 26/27 itineraries open up soon it may become more clear.  

Will be watching carefully to see what happens immediately after the next releases appear. 

 

The suite trick you describe might work on certain itineraries, but definitely not on all.  Perhaps there's something about westbound TAs (which I track carefully), but there's a definite trend here that says keep your powder dry unless you've got a very specific cabin in mind.  The 'hold suites' until after final certainly wouldn't have helped them move suite inventory for this Fall:

 

 

 

 

[miched]

When it is the lowest???    Problem is it is like the stock market with the disclaimer that past performance  does not guarantee future results.   Try to figure out when it is the lowest, same applies to cruises.  
 

Best time to buy is when you find the cruise and cabin you want.   Adjust if it goes down. 
 

Happy cruising 🌊🚢🇺🇸🌅