Carnival Stock

[caribill]

Cruise stocks decline after analyst downgrade

 

Royal Caribbean and Carnival shares decline after analystrecommends investors sell the stocks

 

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and Carnival Corp. declined on Thursday after an analyst recommended that investors sell the cruise operators' shares and issued a highly downbeat outlook for the sector.

 

Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kent downgraded the cruise sector to "Cautious," lowered Carnival's rating to "Sell" and downgraded Royal Caribbean shares to "Conviction List Sell."

 

"Net yield expectations are way too high given the deteriorating worldwide consumer, the massive supply hitting the market, cruise operators desire to fill these ships at any price, and a high exposure to more expensive Europe/Alaska cruises at the wrong time," Kent said. Net revenue yield represents the amount cruise companies make from their passengers after subtracting expenses.

 

He also noted that both Royal Caribbean and Carnival will also need to access the tight capital markets within the next two years.

"Even with the share prices down 55 percent over the past 12 months, we think these stocks go lower," Kent said. He predicted that cruise shares may suffer in the near term as cruise companies report lower bookings during the key "wave season" that runs from January through March.

 

He also expects cruise companies to report that cruises prices have dropped even farther than expected and that onboard spending has fallen.

 

Kent noted that Carnival and Royal Caribbean have been shifting capacity to focus on higher price itineraries in Europe, Alaska and other more exotic destinations. "The timing of this could not be worse given consumers' aversion to big ticket items," Kent said.

Kent also expressed concern about the steady growth of cruise ship supply. He noted that cruise operators have generally opted not to postpone or cancel ship construction, unlike hotel and casino companies, which have delayed or canceled many projects.

"Ships take three years to build; therefore it is our view that the cruise companies should have been more aggressive trying to cancel or at least delay the out-year ships," Kent said.

 

Kent also noted that oil prices may rebound as the economy begins to recover, which would weigh on the sector even as consumer spending improves.

 

"If oil trends higher on the back of a stronger economy (in 2010) we estimate cruise earnings could be down for the fourth year in a row for Carnival and the fifth year in a row for Royal," he said.

 

Kent's report was significantly more gloomy than analyses issued in recent weeks by Stifel Nicolaus & Co. and Susquehanna Financial Group analysts, who predicted that consumers will turn to cruises as a high-value vacation option during the economic downturn.

Kent argued that the high upfront cost of a cruise -- while offering a good value -- may scare away consumers nervous about writing big checks as the economy continues to deteriorate and unemployment rises.

 

He said the upfront payment "could be harder to swallow than paying for a vacation piecemeal in this environment (air tickets, then hotel, then entertainment)."

 

 

source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Cruise-stocks-decline-after-apf-14075314.html

[Pia1913]

I'm not selling mine. They don't owe me a dime. I've made back my purchase price several times.

[Solara]

I'm not selling mine. They don't owe me a dime. I've made back my purchase price several times.

Lucky you, unfortunately even with all the onboard credit we've received we are still down. If it gets any lower we may buy another 100 shares so if the price ever goes up we can sell some.

[Pia1913]

Lucky you, unfortunately even with all the onboard credit we've received we are still down. If it gets any lower we may buy another 100 shares so if the price ever goes up we can sell some.

 

I already have 200 shares which I've owned for many years. I don't recall when they started giving OBC, but I know I got it on a Holland America South America cruise in early 2001. I know it's at 21 now, but it was lower a few weeks ago; prime time to buy.

[Nancyquilts]

Lucky you, unfortunately even with all the onboard credit we've received we are still down. If it gets any lower we may buy another 100 shares so if the price ever goes up we can sell some.

We did this last year - bought another 100 shares and then sold the original 100 after 30 days. Now I won't feel so badly about the stock quote.:D

[tedjazz]

Now I hope the stock price heads north. :D

 

Even if it goes south, you still get the OBC and a Tax write off, you win twice. :)

[Times Prince]

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. and Carnival Corp. declined on Thursday after an analyst recommended that investors sell the cruise operators' shares and issued a highly downbeat outlook for the sector.

 

Goldman Sachs analyst Steven Kent downgraded the cruise sector...

 

Kent's report was significantly more gloomy than analyses issued in recent weeks by Stifel Nicolaus & Co. and Susquehanna Financial Group analysts, who predicted that consumers will turn to cruises as a high-value vacation option during the economic downturn.

 

Kent argued that the high upfront cost of a cruise -- while offering a good value -- may scare away consumers nervous about writing big checks as the economy continues to deteriorate and unemployment rises.

 

He said the upfront payment "could be harder to swallow than paying for a vacation piecemeal in this environment (air tickets, then hotel, then entertainment)."

You gotta wonder what this Mr. Kent does for vacations and why his outlook is so gloomy.

 

He NEEDS A CRUISE !!!

 

I find it amazing that the negative feelings of one analyst can offset the 1,000's of positive feelings from passengers who actually take the time for a relaxing, totally pampered vacation. ... and why his attitude can cause investors to sell their stock at below par prices. After all, I think it's been quite a few years since someone came off of the mountain with tablets containing the word of God, and this analyst sure wasn't Moses.

[tedjazz]

You gotta wonder what this Mr. Kent does for vacations and why his outlook is so gloomy.

 

He NEEDS A CRUISE !!!

 

I find it amazing that the negative feelings of one analyst can offset the 1,000's of positive feelings from passengers who actually take the time for a relaxing, totally pampered vacation. ... and why his attitude can cause investors to sell their stock at below par prices. After all, I think it's been quite a few years since someone came off of the mountain with tablets containing the word of God, and this analyst sure wasn't Moses.

 

Maybe he's looking at the BIG picture and not being myopic like the totally pampered Cruise Vacationer. That being said, he is probably weighing many factors, most of which make sense when you stand back and look at it. I don't think it should change anyone's vacation plans (that's up to the individual to decide), but the current economic environment has people rethinking almost every uncommitted dollar they spend. JMHO

[Trivia Buffet]

You see something that says they are discontinuing it, or do you see expiration date of July 31st? Every annual report is listed the same way; expiration date of July 31st of that specific year. Each year the expiration year changes; month and date remain the same.

 

Have you applied for your OBC for your February cruise?

 

Does anyone know when the annual report comes out? I am booked on a 8/10/09 Princess cruise and would consider buying if they did extend the date or provide credit now.;)

[KennyOB]

I am also booked for December 2009 and would like to know if July 31st is the true expiration date for the OBC benefit or just an annual report cutoff date. Thanks.

[Pia1913]

Does anyone know when the annual report comes out? I am booked on a 8/10/09 Princess cruise and would consider buying if they did extend the date or provide credit now.;)

 

I am also booked for December 2009 and would like to know if July 31st is the true expiration date for the OBC benefit or just an annual report cutoff date. Thanks.

 

The annual report comes out in February/March of each year and each year the July 31st date changes to the next year. IOW, I would expect the new report to say July 31, 2010. That's the way it's always happened and hopefully nothing will change. Yes, we aren't getting our usual dividend, but the perks still surpass that.

[nikita]

How much onboard credit do you get with 100 shares? Also, what cruiselines, besides Carnival and Princess can you get the OBC? Thanks

[Pia1913]

How much onboard credit do you get with 100 shares? Also, what cruiselines, besides Carnival and Princess can you get the OBC? Thanks

 

Holland America, Costa and Seabourn. You get:

$100 for cruises over 7+ days

$250 for cruises 14+ days

[nikita]

Holland America, Costa and Seabourn. You get:

$100 for cruises over 7+ days

$250 for cruises 14+ days

 

Thank you. We have a cruise scheduled next month - final payment has already been made. Can we buy the stock now and still receive the credit? How soon before the cruise can we buy it to get the OBC? We were thinking of watching it for a few weeks before buying. Thanks again.

[Pia1913]

Thank you. We have a cruise scheduled next month - final payment has already been made. Can we buy the stock now and still receive the credit? How soon before the cruise can we buy it to get the OBC? We were thinking of watching it for a few weeks before buying. Thanks again.

 

I suppose you can buy it the final week, but you need the paperwork to fax to them. I wouldn't wait up until the last minute. How much can you save, $20? Or perhaps it will go up. Works both ways. At 21 it's pretty low now

[nikita]

Thanks so much for the information!!

[dazee8]

You can double, triple and even quadruple dip. Yes, it was changed effective February, 2008.

 

 

Just to clarify... the stock symbol is CCL, for Carnival Corporation? It also mentioned Carnival plc, but I couldn't find the symbol for that.

 

Thanks.

[KAWS]

Just to clarify... the stock symbol is CCL, for Carnival Corporation? It also mentioned Carnival plc, but I couldn't find the symbol for that.

 

Thanks.

 

Yes, it's CCL.

[Pia1913]

Yes, it's CCL.

 

And the closing price yesterday was 21.12.

[dazee8]

And the closing price yesterday was 21.12.

 

Pia,

 

I understand there is additional OBC for the number of cruises you have taken, example 30 cruises= $50 OBC for the cabin.

 

Did your TA attach that to your statement/booking before you cruised or did you notice it on your cabin statement printout from the Purser's desk after you got onboard?

 

Thanks

[Pia1913]

Pia,

 

I understand there is additional OBC for the number of cruises you have taken, example 30 cruises= $50 OBC for the cabin.

 

Did your TA attach that to your statement/booking before you cruised or did you notice it on your cabin statement printout from the Purser's desk after you got onboard?

 

Thanks

 

You find a gift card in your cabin. I really don't know whether it shows on the personalizer. TA usually knows nothing about this anyway. And yes....30+ cruises gets you $50.

[dazee8]

Thanks for the quick reply Pia. You saved me sending a long detailed message to the TA, who would have probably said... "I don't know anything about that." UGH. :rolleyes:

 

I appreciate all your help and tips. You have made us savvy cruisers.

 

:)

[Pia1913]

Thanks for the quick reply Pia. You saved me sending a long detailed message to the TA, who would have probably said... "I don't know anything about that." UGH. :rolleyes:

 

I appreciate all your help and tips. You have made us savvy cruisers.

 

:)

 

My pleasure. Always happy to share good experiences. :D

[West Coast]

I understand there is additional OBC for the number of cruises you have taken, example 30 cruises= $50 OBC for the cabin. Did your TA attach that to your statement/booking before you cruised or did you notice it on your cabin statement printout from the Purser's desk after you got onboard?

 

As mentioned, when you receive this (if eligible) you will find a card in your stateroom upon boarding.

 

This is a 'Thank You for your Loyalty' gift and it is given to you by the Captain Circle Host(ess).

 

Your TA would not be aware of this OBC unless (s)he is a 20+ cruises with Princess or has clients that are that have mentioned receiving it.

[ibfern]

I own 100 shares, if I buy another 100 shares, will I get double OBC for my stocks? Or if I own 100 shares and my DH owns 100 shares, will be get double credit?

 

Thanks,

Amelia