When Will They Start Shutting Down?

[Sea King]

I think you're right. If people are cruising, they'll still take shore excursions. It's the shopping that will suffer...with jewelry being the first to go, for most, I believe.

 

agree about the shopping and jewelry

 

can't agree with your comment about shore excursions

 

revenue from shore excursions is already significantly off .. especially in the Carribean ports .. it will probably be less so in Alaska and Europe since those cruises for the most part are booked with tours and excursions in mind rather than sun and fun

 

unfortunately, the industry IMO is in for "tough times"

 

the strong such as Carnival will in all likelihood survive

 

the less fortunate will go

[FireIce0010]

agree about the shopping and jewelry

 

can't agree with your comment about shore excursions

 

revenue from shore excursions is already significantly off .. especially in the Carribean ports .. it will probably be less so in Alaska and Europe since those cruises for the most part are booked with tours and excursions in mind rather than sun and fun

 

unfortunately, the industry IMO is in for "tough times"

 

the strong such as Carnival will in all likelihood survive

 

the less fortunate will go

 

People still need to vacation and now more than ever. They will just cut back in other places to make it happen. I have read that right here on the boards recently. The cruise lines will adjust to fill the ships and hope that people spend some money on board. Of course watch for more cuts in places like the quality of food to make up for the lower prices and short cuts.

[kryos]

wish you were right Rita .. unfortunately, I see this problem 180 degrees south of you

 

the first thing to go in "a down economy is the "extras"

Yes, that is very true ... extras do get cut out. However, in general, for people who have the means to travel, I don't think they will cut out that travel, even in this economy. True, tourism may be "down," but that's everywhere. The fact is that there will always be people coming to these Caribbean ports, even in this economy. True, they may not spend the money for a beautiful piece of expensive jewelry, but they will spend for some things ... more economical pieces and other sourvenir-type items.

 

Until such a time as the ecomomy gets much, much worse, you're always going to have people traveling, and a trip to the Caribbean for someone living on the east coast is one of the cheapest travel options available. Some will fly, others will cruise, but they will come and they will spend at least some money.

 

And how about weddings and honeymoons? People are still gonna get married, and they are going to be looking for a relatively cheap honeymoon option. Maybe that week in Hawaii will be out in this tight economy, but that doesn't mean a seven-day Caribbean getaway will be. True, they may not stay in that luxury couples all inclusive resort, but they will stay in a hotel somewhere on the island, and they will avail themselves of various amenities while there.

 

Also, let's be honest here ... not everyone is greatly affected by this economy. If a couple are both still managing to hang onto their jobs, and if they don't have a whole lot invested in the stock market because they are still relatively young and haven't amassed a nestegg yet for investment purposes, then they are really not hurting too much, are they? In fact, with prices dropping on just about everything, they could actually be doing very well and have the money to travel.

 

That's why I don't think too many of the vendors will close down just because the cruising season is over. I think lots of people will still flock to those Caribbean island by air ... and frankly, I think more people arrive by air than by cruise ship anyway.

 

The vendors will survive, of that I am sure. They may not be in "hog heaven" as they perhaps were in the past, but they will survive until the cruise ships return next season, and the next.

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[kryos]

People still need to vacation and now more than ever. They will just cut back in other places to make it happen. I have read that right here on the boards recently. The cruise lines will adjust to fill the ships and hope that people spend some money on board. Of course watch for more cuts in places like the quality of food to make up for the lower prices and short cuts.

Assuming that hotels and resorts are slashing prices the same way many of the cruise lines are, this economy may actually present one of the best opportunities for travel that we've seen in a decade!

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[Sea King]

People still need to vacation and now more than ever. They will just cut back in other places to make it happen.

 

totally agree except for where the "cuts" will come

 

on board revenue will IMO slump .. that will include bars (more and more will try to bring their own aboard), shops, excursions and the spas

 

HAL and others will of necessity have to slash prices to fill ships

 

but, the bottom line spending of pax will drop considerably

[sail7seas]

 

 

Also, let's be honest here ... not everyone is greatly affected by this economy. If a couple are both still managing to hang onto their jobs, and if they don't have a whole lot invested in the stock market because they are still relatively young and haven't amassed a nestegg yet for investment purposes, then they are really not hurting too much, are they? In fact, with prices dropping on just about everything, they could actually be doing very well and have the money to travel.

 

That's why I don't think too many of the vendors will close down just because the cruising season is over. I think lots of people will still flock to those Caribbean island by air ... and frankly, I think more people arrive by air than by cruise ship anyway.

 

The vendors will survive, of that I am sure. They may not be in "hog heaven" as they perhaps were in the past, but they will survive until the cruise ships return next season, and the next.

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

 

 

Of those people who have not personally lost large sums in the market and who have job security (at the moment), many are not spending anywhere near the rate they used to.

 

Some of it is fear as to how long this slump will last, how severe will it get....where is the bottom and when will we reach it?

 

People are not insensitive to those around them. Though they have funds, they are aware some friends, neighbors, relatives are hurting badly.

 

Fear and caution are keeping some people who have the means out of stores and away from anything but necessary spending.

 

I am not at all sure all the vendors will survive.

I'm not sure all the cruise lines will survive.If this slump continues much longer, I expect to hear of some major hotels closing, restaurants, more retailers. Saw a big story on FOX this morning about the condition of Las Vegas and specifically MGM. Bankruptcy is not out of the question.

 

I fully expect HAL and Carnival to get through this intact.

[kryos]

Tourism in the islands always decreases hugely in the summer but this summer with the horrid economy, they haven't been able to build enough reserve to ride out the slow months.

 

Many will close I fear and probably will not ever reopen.

More unemployed; more povery in the islands. It cannot be a good situation.

I agree with you that it's a tough situation. All I am saying is that tourism drops during the summer months in these islands every year ... not just because the cruise ships stop coming, but because of the potentially bad weather that could be encountered during the summer months. They've survived before and I think they'll continue to survive. After all, this bad economy is not going to last forever and things will improve. People will continue to visit these islands even when the cruise ships stop coming for the season.

 

Working in the tourism business is all about feast or famine. They are used to it. Sometimes business is so brisk you can barely breathe, but other times things are really slow. They are used to it and will weather this storm just as they have weathered many others in the past.

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[jhannah]

A certain number will continue to cruise as usual. Many retirees moved their funds (or the bulk of them) from volitile stock-based investments to a more secure mix of bonds and money market instruments when they retired for capital preservation. While their earnings aren't what they used to be, due to miserable interest rates, at least they aren't losing money. These folks will maintain their ability to travel pretty much as they please.

 

Those who are still heavily in the stock market ... well, that's a totally different and sad story.

[Don_In_AZ]

In light of the current sinking economy, how will the cuise lines be able to fill their ships every week as they continue to launch bigger mega ships? Does it make sense to build more ships when so many potential passengers are losing their jobs?

 

Quote from a popular cruise website:

"For the month of January, the 550 employees of [said company] shattered the company's prior record for sales."

 

...and from the same newsletter:

"Princess Cruises announced last month that Monday, January 12th was the biggest booking day in the company's history. The volume of bookings on that day was up more than 17% over their previous best booking day. The line attributes the record day and a generally strong Wave Season so far to the success of promotions such as their Balcony Bonanza, which offers free upgrades from unobstructed oceanview staterooms to balcony staterooms on many sailings, and to the fact that customers continue to recognize the excellent value of cruise vacations."

 

Clearly at some point, if the economy continues to get worse, people will stay home, but the fact that cruising is percieved as such a value when compared to other vacation options will help keep the ships reasonably full in the near future.

 

JMHO

Don

[jtl513]

If a couple are both still managing to hang onto their jobs, and ...

Two of our three children are very worried about keeping their jobs. We won't be booking any cruises (even though we can afford it) until we know for sure that we won't have to help them keep from losing their houses. :(

[mamaofami]

Of those people who have not personally lost large sums in the market and who have job security (at the moment), many are not spending anywhere near the rate they used to.

 

Some of it is fear as to how long this slump will last, how severe will it get....where is the bottom and when will we reach it?

 

People are not insensitive to those around them. Though they have funds, they are aware some friends, neighbors, relatives are hurting badly.

 

Fear and caution are keeping some people who have the means out of stores and away from anything but necessary spending.

 

I am not at all sure all the vendors will survive.

I'm not sure all the cruise lines will survive.If this slump continues much longer, I expect to hear of some major hotels closing, restaurants, more retailers. Saw a big story on FOX this morning about the condition of Las Vegas and specifically MGM. Bankruptcy is not out of the question.

 

I fully expect HAL and Carnival to get through this intact.

 

I just got off the phone with a friend who lives in Boca. She said things are awful there and everywhere you look there are foreclosure signs, even on $2 million dollar homes.

 

I believe the stores are empty because even people who have jobs and aren't very worried about losing them, aren't spending money they don't have to spend.

 

This economic crisis is hitting very hard in this country and while there are still many who may be able to afford to cruise or vacation, there are others who are scaling back. That has to effect small businesses, restaurants, hotels, etc. The fallout will be felt all over this country as well as in the Caribbean. All we can do is hope it will be of short duration.

[Sea King]

 

 

Until such a time as the ecomomy gets much, much worse, you're always going to have people traveling

 

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

 

respectfully Rita, let's all hope and quite frankly pray it doesn't get any worse than it now is ..

 

the unemployment #s are the largest in decades; business after business is failing; bankruptcy filings are at the highest they've been in years .. car sales are almost non-existent .. retirement accounts have been wiped out or severely reduced

 

worse? how much worse can it get? the problem is no one knows

 

of course, there's always exceptions to the rule ..

 

it's not time to panic IMO yet

 

however, it's time accept reality: the world as we know has changed and will continue to change

 

what it will become is anyone's guess

 

travel will definitely continue: again, the model of what will emerge has yet to decided

[Oceanwench]

The prices at Disney hotels continue to astound me! :eek:

Last time we were up there - mid-December - the hotels and parks were packed. Stores were full of shoppers.

 

I have been looking at prices for weekends in March and April, and they are quite high.

[kryos]

revenue from shore excursions is already significantly off .. especially in the Carribean ports .. it will probably be less so in Alaska and Europe since those cruises for the most part are booked with tours and excursions in mind rather than sun and fun

I'm not surprised it's off ... especially since it really is not necessary to book a shore excursion in most Caribbean ports. I know I've done some of them over the years, but only because it was my first visit to the area and I wanted the assurance of having a guide to show me the highlights. But, you really don't need this in the Caribbean, especially if your desire is just for some great beach time. You can easily take a cab to the beach, enjoy your day, and then just head back to the ship ... at a far cheaper rate that what a shore excursion would cost.

 

I think just about every tourist area in the world is seeing less revenue today. It doesn't mean that all the vendors are ready to shut down though. They've weathered these storms before and they'll weather them again. It's all a product of the cyclical nature of the world economy. How did they manage to stay in business after 9-11 when travel, especially worldwide travel, took a nosedive? Somehow they made it ... and that's why they are still there today. They'll make it through this current storm too ... or at least the better ones will.

 

When I was in Hawaii and the South Pacific last fall, at every port stop we heard stories about how tourism was off. Rates were down in hotels and in stores. Hilo Hatties was shutting down their stores. Well, if Hilo Hatties was shutting down, then they must have been in trouble long before the ecomony tanked ... because there were plenty of other tourism providers that were doing fine.

 

This is why I doubt that the economy alone will be the demise of many of the vendors and other tourism operators in these islands. If they go under, it will be for other reasons ... reasons that go far deeper than just the economy.

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[kryos]

worse? how much worse can it get? the problem is no one knows

 

of course, there's always exceptions to the rule ..

 

it's not time to panic IMO yet

I agree with you 100%. I don't see a cause for panic either ... not yet anyway. I am very optimistic that the new administration in office is on top of the situation and has the programs to help our ecomony. Now maybe if the old administration was still in, I'd be thinking in terms of panic. But right now, I am very optimistic that things are going to turn around by the end of the year.

 

Of course, maybe I'm just drinking too much KoolAid, but I honestly don't think so.

 

Blue skies ...

 

--rita

[kryos]

[quote name='sail7seas'][B]Of those people who have not personally lost large sums in the market and who have job security (at the moment), many are not spending anywhere near the rate they used to.[/B]
[/QUOTE]
The stock market was booming for many, many years. Believe me, I was well aware of it as I was doing well too. My IRA and 401K were very healthy. But, when it began to tank ... and when things began to reach the point where I was losing sleep at night ... I got my money out and placed into more "secure" investments. I think most others are doing the same. They're protecting themselves so that when the economy improves ... which I don't think will take more than another year or so ... they will be in a position to make up their losses.

I don't make light of our current economic situation. I full well realize that many people are hurting very bad right now. But I also know many who are adjusting ... getting themselves retrained with the skills needed for alternative employment, changing their spending habits, etc., in order to weather this storm ... because it is just that ... a storm that will one day clear up and the sun will shine again.

But that is not to say people will give up travel entirely ... because many won't. They will continue to travel in even the worst economy because travel is a very important component to their lives. It's just that they will be a bit more aware of what they are spending and how they are spending it. They will look for bargains like never before. And that's why the cruise lines are coming up with all these innovative programs ... such as "air included" on Europe cruises, reduced fares, kids go free promotions, etc.

I agree, Carnival and HAL will weather this storm, as well as most of the other larger lines. They may just have to "settle" for a 10% return on their investment for a while, rather than the 20% or more they've gotten in the past. But then ... maybe that 20% was too much to begin with? Maybe real estate values that triple in a couple of years were actually inflated to begin with? Maybe the problem with our economy is simply that it is righting itself after years of artificially inflated growth. Maybe this current "crisis" is actually our economy just doing a balancing act?

Blue skies ...

--rita

[kryos]

[quote name='mamaofami']I just got off the phone with a friend who lives in Boca. She said things are awful there and everywhere you look there are foreclosure signs, even on $2 million dollar homes.
[/QUOTE]
In my opinion, that's a horse of an entirely different color. Those foreclosure signs are not the result of a bad economy. They're the result of people who bought homes they could in no way afford, and who given mortgages on them by totally unscrupulous lenders.

Our housing market everywhere in the country has been grossly inflated now for many years. A simple condominium ... maybe two bedrooms with 1-1/2 baths, in the city ... nothing spectacular ... selling for half a million? Give me a break. No way is it worth that! Now that the housing market is leveling out ... and prices are coming down to more realistic levels ... many of these people are stuck with mortgages that are much higher than the property is worth. Then, to compound matters, they had adjustable rate mortgages where the rate is gone through the roof and they can no longer afford to keep up the payments. Since the property is not worth half of what the mortgage cost today, many people are just making the decision to "walk away" and hence you have the housing market crisis.

I just hope that as our new President bails out all of these lenders who made these unscrupulous loans, that there is also some strict regulations put into place to ensure this sort of thing never happens again.

To me you get a mortgage based on your income TODAY ... not what it has the potential of reaching in the future. There are people with half a million dollar mortgages that should have never qualified for those mortgages ... and if there had been some regulations in place, they would have never gotten into the mess they find themselves in today ... and our economy wouldn't be half as bad off as it is either since the banks wouldn't be stuck holding all the paper on homes whose values are grossly inflated.

Blue skies ...

--rita

[Casino Player]

[quote name='sail7seas'][B]With the state of the economy and no end in sight, with the end of cruise season approaching quickly (all HAL ships as well as many others leaving the Caribbean for about 6 months), how many of the islands jewelry, t-shirt and souvenir shops etc will close down....probably permanently? How many tour operators will go out of business?[/B]

[B]It makes me sad but there cannot possibly be enough business now seeing as people are being careful with the budgets and the ships are still coming in. Wiith the prospect of ships repositioning in the coming weeks, I suspect many of the locals are not going to be able to keep their businesses going.[/B]

[B]Makes me sad for them.[/B][/quote]

[SIZE=3][COLOR=darkgreen]A few things to note: 1) We are not at the end of cruise ships going down to the Carribean. Many cruise lines have ships going all year round. Remember, families probably can only go during the summer months even if it is hot and humid down there. 2) Cruise ships are not the only way to get there. Many go by Plane. Some even take a plane down to a large island and take a ferry to a smaller island. Are you shocked? [/COLOR][/SIZE]

[Sea King]

[quote name='kryos']
Those foreclosure signs are not the result of a bad economy. They're the result of people who bought homes they could in no way afford, and who given mortgages on them by totally unscrupulous lenders.

Blue skies ...

--rita[/quote]

just wondering how the Dean of the Harvard Business School would comment to that statement:rolleyes:

what about the high tech engineer who just lost his job; or the executive at Ford, or the Senior VP at Circuit City .. sure they all bought homes "they could in no way afford":confused:

the OP started with a simple question: how would the economy impact businesses in the islands:eek:

I suggest it may be time to return to cruising and not the domestic foreclosure market

that's just too depressing

[mamaofami]

[quote name='kryos']In my opinion, that's a horse of an entirely different color. Those foreclosure signs are not the result of a bad economy. They're the result of people who bought homes they could in no way afford, and who given mortgages on them by totally unscrupulous lenders.

Our housing market everywhere in the country has been grossly inflated now for many years. A simple condominium ... maybe two bedrooms with 1-1/2 baths, in the city ... nothing spectacular ... selling for half a million? Give me a break. No way is it worth that! Now that the housing market is leveling out ... and prices are coming down to more realistic levels ... many of these people are stuck with mortgages that are much higher than the property is worth. Then, to compound matters, they had adjustable rate mortgages where the rate is gone through the roof and they can no longer afford to keep up the payments. Since the property is not worth half of what the mortgage cost today, many people are just making the decision to "walk away" and hence you have the housing market crisis.

I just hope that as our new President bails out all of these lenders who made these unscrupulous loans, that there is also some strict regulations put into place to ensure this sort of thing never happens again.

To me you get a mortgage based on your income TODAY ... not what it has the potential of reaching in the future. There are people with half a million dollar mortgages that should have never qualified for those mortgages ... and if there had been some regulations in place, they would have never gotten into the mess they find themselves in today ... and our economy wouldn't be half as bad off as it is either since the banks wouldn't be stuck holding all the paper on homes whose values are grossly inflated.

Blue skies ...

--rita[/quote

[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3]Rita, I believe there are many seniors living in and around Boca, as well as all over Florida, who bought homes they could well afford and then they were hit with many stock market losses. They can no longer afford their homes or traveling. Some were victims of Maidoff, and some of the general decline in the market. The impact of these losses will be felt by business in Florida as well as in the Caribbean. Personally, I know one couple who had a home on the Jersey shore and another in Florida. Thy had to sell both(luckily they did) and buy a small apartment in Florida. They will no longer be traveling.[/SIZE][/FONT]
[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3] [/SIZE][/FONT]

[sail7seas]

[quote name='Casino Player'][SIZE=3][COLOR=darkgreen]A few things to note: 1) We are not at the end of cruise ships going down to the Carribean. Many cruise lines have ships going all year round. Remember, families probably can only go during the summer months even if it is hot and humid down there. 2) Cruise ships are not the only way to get there. Many go by Plane. Some even take a plane down to a large island and take a ferry to a smaller island. Are you shocked? [/COLOR][/SIZE][/quote]


[B]DH and I used to love sailing HAL in the Caribbean during summer months. HAL, for years now, has NO ships in the Caribbean between mid April and mid October. While other cruise lines do continue sailing summer in the Caribbean, there are very many fewer ships doing so than during the late fall, winter and early spring. [/B]

[B]Ships reposition for their seasons in Alaska and Europe.[/B]

[B]Checking what ships are in port on web sites that provide that info indicate the low number calling in the various Caribbean ports.[/B]

[B][URL="http://www.cruisett.com"]www.cruisett.com[/URL][/B]
[B][URL="http://www.**********"]www.**********[/URL]


And, yes........ People do travel to the islands by planes and we did that for years, as well. We have stayed at various resorts all over the Caribbean since 1969. We always found much lower numbers in the hotels, restaurants and stores during 'low season'. We cruise way more now than other forms of vacation but did it for enough years to see a very clear pattern. Forget the economy....... tourism in the summer in tropical regions drops.

Actually, we were in FLL last June for 8 days and the place was deserted. We saw two or three ships in Port Everglades the entire time we were there. Our hotel room faced Port Everglades so we didn't 'not notice'. In winter months, there are that many ships in Minimum everyday and often 6 to 9 and more. Restaurants we normally book from home before we travel to FLL, we walked into with no reservation at all. We were seated immediately as they were not even half full. Most did not serve one full seating for the night. That lack of business is shocking and hard for any place to survive. We went to Galleria Mall in FLL and I could have rolled a bowling ball down the center of the mall and I wouldn't have hit a single person. It was dead. So dead, I've heard Saks Fifth Avenue closed.

Shocking!! ;)

[/B]

[kryos]

[quote name='mamaofami'][quote name='kryos']Rita, I believe there are many seniors living in and around Boca, as well as all over Florida, who bought homes they could well afford and then they were hit with many stock market losses. They can no longer afford their homes or traveling. Some were victims of Maidoff, and some of the general decline in the market. [/SIZE][/FONT]
[/QUOTE]
Please don't take this wrong, because I honestly don't mean it to sound cruel ... but what the heck is a "senior" doing with a mortage? A senior who is retired has no business living in a home that he has to maintain a mortgage on.

When someone retires and no longer has a steady income coming in, they shouldn't have a mortgage to pay. They should either be living in a much more modest home -- yes, even if that means not being able to live in Boca -- or they should be living in affordable rental accommodations.

The senior years are the ones you want to keep nice and simple. You don't want a lot of bills, including mortgages and car payments, because you want to have a greater percentage of disposable income just for things like travel and hobbies. I personally would never be willing to make mortgage payments when I was retired. I would sooner live in far more modest accommodations and have the money to enjoy those retirement years. After all, I worked my a** off for years ... now it's time to sit back and relax.

As for Madoff ... please ... don't get me started. I couldn't say on this forum what I think should become of him. I'd probably get permanently banned. :(

Blue skies ...

--rita

[kryos]

[quote name='sail7seas'][B]Forget the economy....... tourism in the summer in tropical regions drops.[/QUOTE]
Exactly. It's just the nature of the Caribbean to be dead in the summer months ... not just because of the lack of cruise ship visits, but because of the weather. No one wants to plan for months on a relaxing Caribbean vacation, only to have those dreams slashed at the last minute when a hurricane tears through cancelling all of the flights. So people plan on other sorts of vacations if they must travel in the summertime, resulting in the very poor tourism numbers for those months.

It's the same in Alaska. They die come the fall. After all, I doubt there are very many people willing to travel in Alaska in the dead of winter.

It's just the cyclical nature of tourism all over the world. Sometimes it's high season and you're "living large," and sometimes everything is dead and you simply don't work very often. It's just something they have to deal with, and have dealt with for many years.

Blue skies ...

--rita

[SJSULIBRARIAN]

Rita,

You are the voice of reason.

I am hopeful some people will be able to continue to cruise during this economic situation. On the other hand, there are a lot of ships out there and I wonder if they would have been full in the best of times.

Barbara

[kryos]

[quote name='Sea King']just wondering how the Dean of the Harvard Business School would comment to that statement:rolleyes:
[/QUOTE]
If the Dean of Harvard Business School was one who encouraged giving inflated mortgages to those who truly couldn't afford them, then frankly, I don't care what he thinks. As far as I'm concerned, in that case, he's an idiot too.

Blue skies ...

--rita