You are getting down into the weeds a bit too much - financially, the break-even is at about 5 alcoholic drinks - if you know you'll drink more than that every day get the package, otherwise buy a la carte.
Neither worked for me when I tried it. Based on my experience and other reports here, the email method works much faster and provides the feedback you were looking for.
You should get a confirmation if you apply via their email address - didn't seem to work via the link provided. The OBC should show in the planner where you make purchases - top of the page.
I don't recall anyone being denied status linking regardless of point level. What you do need the points for is to move to the next level.
Biker, whose DD is a 50ish point D+ who has linked to a first-time cruiser who is now also a D+.
Virtually everyone keeps getting reminders to bid - very unlikely it has anything to do with your particular situation - Royal Up offers are likely automated without regard to inventory or circumstances.
If it's going to happen it's unlikely it will be a direct $/points system like the airlines - more likely like Celebrity in tiers per cabin type booked.
Given the rest of the travel industry and Celebrity loyalty programs, this (points based on spend) has probably been considered by RCI for years and probably anticipated by some here for almost as long.