Chances of a Kids Sail Free This Spring?

[Billy Baltic]

18 minutes ago, Pandamonia said:

Your maths and understand of how infections work are so bad that it hurts my brain.

 

Google herd immunity. understand it. Then think about what you just wrote. 

It’d be a lot easier if you just educate us all. 

[Pandamonia]

49 minutes ago, Billy Baltic said:

It’d be a lot easier if you just educate us all. 

  

 

Vaccines do 3 things. None are 100% but they dont need to be. Measles infects 12 people for every 1 infected and when was there last an outbreak of that. That isnt 100% either.

 

Stop people dying

Stop people being hospitalised

Stop infection

 

So far the only real world data we have is in the over 85's where 95% have antibodies. We also have data in over 80s and the finding is that even 1 dose is over 70% effective and that means 70% effective at totally stopping symptomatic infection. Even with infection viral load is so low it doesnt make you sick and if you are not sick then you have also no chance of spreading the virus as viral load is so low. 

 

You combine this with people who are under 80 and their immune systems function far better which means the data will shortly show that people 50-80 get infected even less and also almost never get hospitalised or die. 

 

The under 50's have super immune systems compared to 80 year olds and it is now thought that the chance of actual infection will be so low the virus will have nobody left to infect and cannot reliably transmit between people and that figure might only be 70% of the population. So 70% of people can protect the 30% who arent protected because transmission is near impossible. the UK is running at a 90% take up rate which means this will happen faster and sooner than expected. 

 

So even if there are people and kids on board who have never been vaccinated they will be no threat to anyone else on board as the chain of infection will be broken by protected people. By having all adults on board vaccinated there is near zero risk from the virus regardless of kids who actually dont ever seem to get sick with it anyway. 

[Mapleleafforever]

11 hours ago, coffeebean said:

That is basically my concern for not having a fully vaccinated ship. I know I and hubby will be protected. I've had both Moderna shots and hubby is beginning his vaccination process in two days. Our safety will not be a concern because we will have enough immunity from Covid to feel safe enough on board a cruise ship.

 

How the cruise lines will handle one, two or how ever many positive cases on board is what I'm concerned about. I won't want to set foot on a cruise ship if those protocols include having to quarantine all the passengers and us not being able to disembark in our home port. So many ifs about what will happen if anyone on board tests positive.

If you are protected than why do you care if there are unvaccinated kids onboard? Do you know believe in the efficacy of the vaccines?

[Mapleleafforever]

12 hours ago, Billy Baltic said:

There will still likely be cases of Covid on ships. Even after 2 doses of vaccine it’s estimated around 95% effective. So with 3000 full vaccinated people on a cruise 150 people on average will still get sick if infected. 

Fain said in his video that the vaccines have shown 99% efficacy in the real world. 

[Mapleleafforever]

8 hours ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

I'm not worried it. I'm vaxed up.  Except.... if an anti-vaxer crawls onto the ship, gets all messed up w/ the covid and causes my vacation to be cancelled or me to be quarantined... then I'll get a bit riled up. 

 

#getvaxedorstayhome

You don't trust the efficacy of the vaccine? 

[lizzius]

6 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

 

As you can see, it was Billy Baltic who brought up the 150 people out of 3000 that may get sick.  I just want to inquire whether if adding an additional 300 unvaccinated children would possibly increase that number to 151 or not.  Nobody ever said anything about 300 infected kids except for you,  and then you go and say if they get infected on board, so what.  Would you feel the same way if one of your non vaccinated kids got infected on board? 

Yes, I would. The chances of them getting infected there are the same as anywhere else, and for kids it's a minor illness.

[lizzius]

11 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

Since it seems Virgin is being marketed primarily to the 20's and 30's crowd, you may be right.

So now even young adults are a no go?

[Iamcruzin]

I just want to know how many adults/children have to be sick with covid before the entire ship has to be quarantined and or the sailing is canceled and the ship has to return to port? That's has always been my concern from day 1.

[lizzius]

9 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

I just want to know how many adults/children have to be sick with covid before the entire ship has to be quarantined and or the sailing is canceled and the ship has to return to port? That's has always been my concern from day 1.

Ships aren't going to sail if that's a likely outcome, so I'd imagine it's a combination of the bar being higher than we might think and waiting for favorable hospitalization/death metrics in the US.

[Billy Baltic]

54 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Fain said in his video that the vaccines have shown 99% efficacy in the real world. 

Perhaps but I’ll take my guidance from someone more qualified on the topic. 

[Iamcruzin]

47 minutes ago, lizzius said:

So now even young adults are a no go?

I looked at their itineraries, mostly 4 and 5 days. Nothing longer than 7. That alone is a turnoff for me. It's a singles, couples without kids line geared for the clubbing crowd. Think bachelor/ bachelorette getaway parties.  I agree with who ever said that it will be noisier than any mainstream family line. Just to be clear in 30 years I have never found a noise issue on anyline. I know where it's going to be loud and I know where to find quiet.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Iamcruzin

[Iamcruzin]

 

19 hours ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

The hand writing is on the wall. Royal has been progressing towards family oriented cruises, especially with new ship builds. They become more attractive to families. The older ships are slowly being phased out. I think Virgin is an adults only cruise line. 
 

M8

 Yep the amplification includes an updated water park. I don't recall reading that they are expanding the library , adding ballroom dancing or Bridge tournaments.

[HBE4]

1 hour ago, Heymarco said:

This reminds me of the monkey ladder experiment. Let’s be smarter than the monkeys!

 

 

 

This should be mandatory viewing when joining CC. 😆

[SNJCruisers]

2 hours ago, lizzius said:

Yes, I would. The chances of them getting infected there are the same as anywhere else, and for kids it's a minor illness.

Luckily you will not have to make that decision since you are not cruising until the summer of 2022 when a vaccine for kids should be out so you don't  have any skin in the game.

[SNJCruisers]

14 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

I have a feeling the adult group on Virgin could equal or surpass the noise of a RC sailing.

 

14 hours ago, SNJCruisers said:

Since it seems Virgin is being marketed primarily to the 20's and 30's crowd, you may be right.

 

2 hours ago, lizzius said:

So now even young adults are a no go?

I thought you might agree with me that a party crowd of 20 and 30's on Virgin would be louder than the sound of your precious little darlings playing while you sip a foo foo drink poolside.

[lizzius]

1 hour ago, Billy Baltic said:

Perhaps but I’ll take my guidance from someone more qualified on the topic. 

I think he's making the same mistake many make and dividing hospitalizations by total vaccinated population... It's why you see people here citing things like "100% effective against hospitalization and death" which is obviously not true. In reality, Pfizer is about the same across the board: we've seen a 90-95% reduction in fully vaccinated individuals against symptomatic disease, hospitalizations, and deaths which is awesome.

[lizzius]

1 minute ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

 

I thought you might agree with me that a party crowd of 20 and 30's on Virgin would be louder than the sound of your precious little darlings playing while you sip a foo foo drink poolside.

I'm just not one to complain about people having a good time, no matter the age.

[lizzius]

14 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

Luckily you will not have to make that decision since you are not cruising until the summer of 2022 when a vaccine for kids should be out so you don't  have any skin in the game.

I swear it's like a greatest hits track with you. Next reply "...... Something something beancounters..."

[Mapleleafforever]

18 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

Luckily you will not have to make that decision since you are not cruising until the summer of 2022 when a vaccine for kids should be out so you don't  have any skin in the game.

You don't know that. 

[Milwaukee Eight]

15 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

 

 

I thought you might agree with me that a party crowd of 20 and 30's on Virgin would be louder than the sound of your precious little darlings playing while you sip a foo foo drink poolside.

Sounds to me you need a cruise in the quiet of a library. 

[Mapleleafforever]

26 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

Luckily you will not have to make that decision since you are not cruising until the summer of 2022 when a vaccine for kids should be out so you don't  have any skin in the game.

Someone posted this on another thread regarding kids cruising out of Israel. Will probably be like this out of the USA as well I suspect. 

 

"In an interview with Ben Bouldin,  VP for Europe, Middle East and Africa, the following was stated in Travel weekly (and the interview podcast)

 

“All adult passengers and crew will have to be vaccinated prior to sailing. Children under 16 will not be vaccinated and will be able to sail as there will be full testing before boarding.”"

[lizzius]

15 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Someone posted this on another thread regarding kids cruising out of Israel. Will probably be like this out of the USA as well I suspect. 

 

"In an interview with Ben Bouldin,  VP for Europe, Middle East and Africa, the following was stated in Travel weekly (and the interview podcast)

 

“All adult passengers and crew will have to be vaccinated prior to sailing. Children under 16 will not be vaccinated and will be able to sail as there will be full testing before boarding.”"

So happy for the clarification... I understand this move, though I hope the broader vaccine requirement is lifted once incidence rate drops. I'll be interested to see how the requirement is worded with regard to licensing agency. 

[SNJCruisers]

48 minutes ago, lizzius said:

I'm just not one to complain about people having a good time, no matter the age.

You do realize that I needed to correct you in post 247 and again with post 265 regarding assumptions on your part about previous posts of mine.

[SNJCruisers]

54 minutes ago, lizzius said:

I swear it's like a greatest hits track with you. Next reply "...... Something something beancounters..."

The final decision is going to come down to the lawyers and bean counters once they "run the numbers" after looking at the data as to whether the under 16 crowd will be allowed on board or will it be 100% 16 + vaccinated.  Why can't you comprehend that?  It's  a greatest hits track because it seems like you can't  grasp the concept.

[lizzius]

3 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

The final decision is going to come down to the lawyers and bean counters once they "run the numbers" after looking at the data as to whether the under 16 crowd will be allowed on board or will it be 100% 16 + vaccinated.  Why can't you comprehend that?  It's  a greatest hits track because it seems like you can't  grasp the concept.

Everyone comprehends that... I don't think anyone here entertains a notion that they have a direct line to Richard Fain. We're all shouting into the abyss.

 

You trot out this line anytime you come up against data that doesn't agree with your notion of infectivity with regards to kids, or general pandemic statistics that may not support the idea of a vaccine requirement in general. The intended effect is to shut down discussion by appealing to a higher authority rather than examine your own conclusions.