CDC Open to USA cruise return this Summer

[KennyFla]

5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

It appears they truncated instead of rounded. I think 0.009 would be more correct, but the vaccines being used in the US are quite safe based on evidence to date. However what is thrown out is the belief that the vaccine protects 100% against serious cases, hospitalizations, and death. 374 (6%) of the cases required hospitalization and 74 (1+%) died. Currently unknown is how many others the 5800 may have infected.

 

74 people out of the 66,000,000 vaccinated from the time of the study is .0000012%.  I'll take those odds.

[mredandchis]

7 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

It appears they truncated instead of rounded. I think 0.009 would be more correct, but the vaccines being used in the US are quite safe based on evidence to date. However what is thrown out is the belief that the vaccine protects 100% against serious cases, hospitalizations, and death. 374 (6%) of the cases required hospitalization and 74 (1+%) died. Currently unknown is how many others the 5800 may have infected.

WOW! Let us break this all down into simple logic.

 

There are 332,526,757 people in the US .
271,956,757  are teens or above and lets say they all got the jab (that is the goal).
That would make a grand total of 24,476 "break through" cases.
That then would say according to CNN data that 1468 would be hospitalised. 
And the correct percentage for death is  1.27% which would be 312 persons.

 

Of course the simple flu  infects 9 to 45 million with between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

 

Also the is NO evidence that a immunized person can infect any one else at this time.  With that being said it may me discovered that it is possible but with all the research being done looking for it , it would obviously be very rare.  

 

And before you have a total meltdown, I am fully vaccinated and I still wear my mask and social distance as long as we in the US do not have herd immunity.  But once we do, normal life comes back and it goes into the sock drawer. 

Edited April 16, 2021 by mredandchis
punctuation

[KennyFla]

1 minute ago, mredandchis said:

 

 

And before you have a total meltdown, I am fully vaccinated and I still wear my mask and social distance as long as we in the US do not have herd immunity.  But once we do, normal life comes back and it goes into the sock drawer. 

 

We are going to have a PPE (Post Pandemic Extravaganza) Pig Roast where everyone will burn their favorite mask.

[firefly333]

They asked faucci what standards to reopen the economy and he waffled and tap danced. If there arent even any standards for reopening the economy what do people expect regarding cruises. 

 

I'd say dont hold your breath. These are people ignoring the numbers, always seeing another boogie man around the corner. I really do not see cruises resuming soon., not from the usa. Not even as different states start reporting herd immunity.  They love to see their name in print, so the longer they stop cruises the better they love the attention. 

[ProgRockCruiser]

14 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

I see Florida still has covid. Looks like a 7 day average of 5711 new cases daily and 132 deaths daily.

 

14 hours ago, Bigbob75 said:

Wrong numbers CNN reports u decide lol .. like I said political jacks.. rest get vaccinated and coming down .. vaccine is the key .  

we are open ! If it makes you feel better get vaccinated and wear two masks .. come on down

You can see the current stats from a variety of sites, such as:

 

https://tallahasseereports.com/2021/04/14/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/

or from a Google search that apparently harvests data from the NYTimes.

 

Using those sources, I see:

 

Current stats (4/15) are 6250-ish cases per day, rolling 7 day average

47 deaths per day, rolling 7 day average

 

Deaths are currently on downward slope, but new cases are on upward slope, unfortunately.

 

I agree that things should improve within a few months, but we're not quite there yet.

[topaz123]

1 hour ago, mredandchis said:

WOW! Let us break this all down into simple logic.

 

There are 332,526,757 people in the US .
271,956,757  are teens or above and lets say they all got the jab (that is the goal).
That would make a grand total of 24,476 "break through" cases.
That then would say according to CNN data that 1468 would be hospitalised. 
And the correct percentage for death is  1.27% which would be 312 persons.

 

Of course the simple flu  infects 9 to 45 million with between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

 

Also the is NO evidence that a immunized person can infect any one else at this time.  With that being said it may me discovered that it is possible but with all the research being done looking for it , it would obviously be very rare.  

 

And before you have a total meltdown, I am fully vaccinated and I still wear my mask and social distance as long as we in the US do not have herd immunity.  But once we do, normal life comes back and it goes into the sock drawer. 

OMG....you mean when media blasts us with "POSITIVE TESTS!!", that Covid is survivable? OMG !!

[OzCanuck]

Number of cruise critic users who have changed their opinions based on ANY Covid-related post since the pandemic started: 0

 

Guaranteed 100% correct statistic, and all of the networks are scared to report it. 

[iria64]

4 hours ago, firefly333 said:

They asked faucci what standards to reopen the economy and he waffled and tap danced. If there arent even any standards for reopening the economy what do people expect regarding cruises. 

 

I'd say dont hold your breath. These are people ignoring the numbers, always seeing another boogie man around the corner. I really do not see cruises resuming soon., not from the usa. Not even as different states start reporting herd immunity.  They love to see their name in print, so the longer they stop cruises the better they love the attention. 

Yeah, I saw that too.  The congress critter was being a bit of an ass but I do agree that Fauci did not answer the question about how low and for how long that low number needs to be sustained before the health emergency is lifted.  All he would say are that the numbers right now are too high but he would not commit to what number is not 'too high'.

 

What they need to say is...

We need to get x% of the population vaccinated

We need daily cases/deaths to be under a certain number

We need transmission rate to be somewhere under 1.

 

If all 3 conditions are met then we can get back to normal.

 

That has been my problem with states and their red/yellow/pink/purple/plaid color levels.  There has never been a metric for fully reopening a state.

 

[BlerkOne]

4 hours ago, firefly333 said:

They asked faucci what standards to reopen the economy and he waffled and tap danced. If there arent even any standards for reopening the economy what do people expect regarding cruises. 

 

I'd say dont hold your breath. These are people ignoring the numbers, always seeing another boogie man around the corner. I really do not see cruises resuming soon., not from the usa. Not even as different states start reporting herd immunity.  They love to see their name in print, so the longer they stop cruises the better they love the attention. 

They are not ignoring the numbers. The virus still determines the schedule not some bloviating, grandstanding politician trying to score points for furthering his/her career. Fauci doesn't have to worry about his legacy.

 

Herd immunity means very little when there are no travel restrictions from areas without herd immunity.

 

Since the world has so much experience with pandemics, there are obviously verified standards that could be spouted off. Not. It would be unconscionable and unprofessional for Fauci to proceed with reckless abandon as some politicians, thinking only about themselves, are doing.

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, OzCanuck said:

Number of cruise critic users who have changed their opinions based on ANY Covid-related post since the pandemic started: 0

 

Guaranteed 100% correct statistic, and all of the networks are scared to report it. 

 

At the end of the day, the virus, much like the honey badger, don't care. It sets the schedule.

 

[thesmiths]

5 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

At the end of the day, the virus,  It sets the schedule.

 

 

 

No it doesn't. Politics is setting the schedule.

[kdr69]

58 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Herd immunity means very little when there are no travel restrictions from areas without herd immunity.

So now even Herd immunity doesnt work??  I mean isnt that the whole point?  If you have Herd immunity and someone comes into that area with the virus it should have nowhere to spread.

[ProgRockCruiser]

1 minute ago, kdr69 said:

So now even Herd immunity doesnt work??  I mean isnt that the whole point?  If you have Herd immunity and someone comes into that area with the virus it should have nowhere to spread.

It would depend on how complete the herd immunity is, and how much travel inward from outside occurs.

 

If herd immunity is established, barely, and you have a huge influx of new, non-immune people, you tip the balance away from herd immunity and run a risk of an outbreak.

 

According to a random Google search:

 

"In 2019, there were 79.26 million international visitors to the U.S. "

 

That is about 20% of the US population.  So if herd immunity is achieved at, say 60%, and the US is at 61%, those almost 80 million visitors might tip the scales.

 

Admittedly, I bet a lot of those visitors were from Canada or Mexico, so getting those two countries closer to herd immunity will probably mitigate that concern.

[kdr69]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

It would be unconscionable and unprofessional for Fauci to proceed with reckless abandon as some politicians, thinking only about themselves, are doing.

Requesting him to comment on a timeline based on percentage of vaccinations and the correlation to when we might see things return to normal is hardly asking him to proceed with "reckless abandon" sounds more like his job to me.  If they can do projections based on current infection rates as to hospitalization rates they should be able to come up with a projection on overall immunity in a country based on current immunization rates.

[kdr69]

2 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

It would depend on how complete the herd immunity is, and how much travel inward from outside occurs.

 

If herd immunity is established, barely, and you have a huge influx of new, non-immune people, you tip the balance away from herd immunity and run a risk of an outbreak.

Sounds like semantics to me.  Either you have Herd Immunity or you dont is the point.  "on your way there" is not Herd Immunity.  I would still classify that as you dont have Herd immunity and yes i agree at that point influx of people coming in with the virus doesnt help.  (Such as Airlines arriving daily with new cases aboard?)  The more people getting the virus at that point helps you arrive faster at Herd immunity although not the best way to do it since there will also be more deaths that come along with that.

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, kdr69 said:

Requesting him to comment on a timeline based on percentage of vaccinations and the correlation to when we might see things return to normal is hardly asking him to proceed with "reckless abandon" sounds more like his job to me.  If they can do projections based on current infection rates as to hospitalization rates they should be able to come up with a projection on overall immunity in a country based on current immunization rates.

The data isn't real time and never will be. Enough data needs to be collected to make any meaningful analysis. The trends go down and then up. Right now, 21 states have at least 10% INCREASE in cases. Good luck trying to project when another wave in approaching.

 

The vaccines are not fully approved and is irresponsible to try to project anything off of an experimental vaccine with any confidence. Right now, both Phizer and Moderna are saying a 3rd booster shot is needed and hopefully will be available by the end of the year. Children are still an unknown.

 

It would be reckless and irresponsible to try to give a timeline now. I realize typical corporations do it all the time and that is why schedules slip all the time. Governments do it all the time. The virus sets the schedule.

[Bigbob75]

The vaccines here in the us is doing itsjob, developed and in peoples arms with incredible speed and remarkable astonishing degree of efficacy. 
As the population that’s is most at risk is getting vaccinated ,coupled with people who have got it and recovered...this nightmare is finally ending.

Most of the time Government, and central planners are slow , very slow and often wrong in the beginning but eventually get it right .. over time . 

politics have been present since day one . BUT at the end of the day now that it’s ending .. the market will decide .

‘if the cdc stalls, and doesn’t react to real world conditions  , cruises will go off shore. 
It will add cost,  cruising will most likely be out of reach for some of the demographic but biz leaders will learn how to accommodate , some biz will close as others will pop up and prosper. 
It won’t be the first time that government got in the way.

‘but the exciting thing is death in our most vulnerable is going down down down.

and cruising will be back soon .

for those who can’t wait , get vaccinated  and come on down , Florida is open it’s a   giant port of call , at all different  price points and venues suit any and all .

Come on down !

 

[kdr69]

2 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

The data isn't real time and never will be. Enough data needs to be collected to make any meaningful analysis. The trends go down and then up

Data up to yesterday was current data.  We have over a year of data now if thats not enough to project BASED ON CURRENT DATA  where we will be at at then i dont understand what data will and when it will be enough data? Data may go up and down but then your projection should change outward based on that.  What your saying is no it just cant be done because we dont know what will happen tomorrow.  Thats not a projection thats fortune telling.

[BlerkOne]

4 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Of course you say you still dont know where covid came from. Most of us have knowledge with a high degree of certainty.  

I'm pretty sure you have no first hand knowledge in that regard - just hearsay based on the slant of your choice of new media.

[firefly333]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

I'm pretty sure you have no first hand knowledge in that regard - just hearsay based on the slant of your choice of new media.

Well since I didnt say I had first hand knowledge as usual responding by asking that is just your usual nothing. I have listened to interviews of people with knowledge which isnt hearsay btw. It's being educated to listen to chinese doctors who have knowledge. 

 

[BlerkOne]

Just now, kdr69 said:

Data up to yesterday was current data.  We have over a year of data now if thats not enough to project BASED ON CURRENT DATA  where we will be at at then i dont understand what data will and when it will be enough data? Data may go up and down but then your projection should change outward based on that.  What your saying is no it just cant be done because we dont know what will happen tomorrow.  Thats not a projection thats fortune telling.

 

OF course it can be done but is irresponsible because the confidence interval is so low and the target is constantly moving  Of course in hindsight you can project what will happen yesterday. Maybe next pandemic we will do better, but I doubt it based on the inability of Americans to follow simple instructions.

 

[BlerkOne]

4 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Well since I didnt say I had first hand knowledge as usual responding by asking that is just your usual nothing. I have listened to interviews of people with knowledge which isnt hearsay btw. It's being educated to listen to chinese doctors who have knowledge. 

 

 

There is no consensus as to where the virus originated. Period. No theory fits all the early cases.

[mredandchis]

39 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

It would depend on how complete the herd immunity is, and how much travel inward from outside occurs.

 

If herd immunity is established, barely, and you have a huge influx of new, non-immune people, you tip the balance away from herd immunity and run a risk of an outbreak.

 

According to a random Google search:

 

"In 2019, there were 79.26 million international visitors to the U.S. "

 

That is about 20% of the US population.  So if herd immunity is achieved at, say 60%, and the US is at 61%, those almost 80 million visitors might tip the scales.

 

Admittedly, I bet a lot of those visitors were from Canada or Mexico, so getting those two countries closer to herd immunity will probably mitigate that concern.

And there is the rub,  there is no line.  Some experts have mentioned lines but not the same one.  It has to be 75 percent or greater in watching other nations. And you are right, this is a world wide pandemic and our neighbors will have to get there also.  That is along with ports we wish to visit.  I look forward to the border opening with Canada, hopefully this summer and it appears the southern border is already open.   

[mredandchis]

31 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I'm pretty sure you have no first hand knowledge in that regard - just hearsay based on the slant of your choice of new media.

DO what? I don't have a clue as to what MSM is saying but in early January I was preping for a cruise on the Vista and one of the sites I always look at is the WHO website.  They had a report that the hospitals in Wuhan had a super large number of pneumonia cases.  The WHO was advising them and then they reported that it was a new strain of Corona that seemed to focus around a fish market and they were doing a deep cleaning.  It wasn't until I returned from the cruise that there were reports of people returning from China having the new virus.  They didnt even have a name for it yet.  

[Bigbob75]

37 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

There is no consensus as to where the virus originated. Period. No theory fits all the early cases.

Hahah , China or WHO doesn’t agree so there there is no “consensus” .. amazing ..