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Sun, current sailing, 600 passengers


Shellbelle28
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1 hour ago, UKstages said:

 

i don't know... thirty years, give or take a year or so?

 

there are may seasonal businesses that operate this way. it is not uncommon for businesses in resort towns to book 80% or 90% of their revenue in just four months. they operate at a loss in any given month beyond that, but still turn a profit on an annual basis.

 

many successful broadway shows run for years on the 100%+ revenue from sold out weeks and months during the summer and holiday seasons and school breaks; they coast by with sub par revenue and even deep losses during the lean weeks and months. "phantom of the opera" has done exactly that for 30 years and only just now announced it was closing (after a run of 35 years)...because the weeks with losses became more frequent and consistent than the weeks the show played at a profit. it can't male money on broadway anymore because the profits from the good weeks no longer exceed the vast losses from the bad weeks.

 

without a doubt, NCL is losing money right now. but when they make money, they make money hand over fist. and so the end of this story is still to be written. if they have no contingency, and they can't monetize their assets and market their product appropriately and adapt to the new normal, and they can't get by during the lean times with the bright shiny promise of tomorrow's revenues, then, yes, they will absolutely suffer and die a miserable death. but that does not yet appear to be happening.

 

"economics" is more than just red and black ink.

 

I don't believe that NCL's model has that much inconsistency from week to week and season to season.  For example, according to their 2019 year end financial presentation occupancy for the 4th quarter of 2019 was 104.5%.  I don't think that they could have crammed in enough kids on the few school vacations in the quarter to offset ships going out at <=50% occupancy on other weeks.  I suspect that in the 'good old days' any sailing with less than 90% occupancy was very rare and not a good thing.

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We are sailing on the Dawn 2 weeks from today. From what I can tell, there are still plenty of cabin availability left. I certainly do not mind if we are sailing at lower capacity since I am not big on large crowds (one of the reasons I wanted to sail on the Dawn). 

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19 hours ago, Karaboudjan said:

 

I don't believe that NCL's model has that much inconsistency from week to week and season to season.... I suspect that in the 'good old days' any sailing with less than 90% occupancy was very rare and not a good thing.

 

that's just the thing... we're not IN the good old days anymore. businesses that adapt to the new normal will survive; those that don't, won't. you can't run a cruise line - or a lemonade stand - using the same business strategies, budget or contingency plans you had in 2019.

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1 hour ago, UKstages said:

 

that's just the thing... we're not IN the good old days anymore. businesses that adapt to the new normal will survive; those that don't, won't. you can't run a cruise line - or a lemonade stand - using the same business strategies, budget or contingency plans you had in 2019.

 

I didn't say we were in the good old days.  I just don't think new strategies, budget or contingencies are enough if they can't get back to near 100% occupancy.

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20 hours ago, Shellbelle28 said:

It's an aft penthouse suite. #9076. The balcony is amazing! 

If I might ask regarding perks for the Club Balcony and Penthouse Suites. I read on another thread, you get one free bag of laundry per cruise leg in you’re in a Club Balcony. What cabin perks came with your Aft Penthouse Suite?

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On 10/1/2022 at 11:32 AM, DaCruiseBug said:

I did a 5 day sailing on the Sun out of Port Canaveral pre-covid and it was the only cruise I was actually happy to be done with.

 

Why? We are on a 5 day on the Sun in a few days (we just booked last minute, the price was too good to pass up and worked well with our schedule). 

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7 hours ago, Karaboudjan said:

 

I didn't say we were in the good old days.  I just don't think new strategies, budget or contingencies are enough if they can't get back to near 100% occupancy.

 

and i would argue that a business that only makes money when it's operating at 90%  - 100% of capacity (or even 70% or 80%) is not a viable business. most businesses are profitable at a far lower percentage of capacity than that.

 

i can certainly appreciate how a business might want to always operate full throttle and maximize revenue, but just because it is operating below 100% capacity doesn't mean the business is not making money.

 

making less money is not the same as being unprofitable.

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4 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

If I might ask regarding perks for the Club Balcony and Penthouse Suites. I read on another thread, you get one free bag of laundry per cruise leg in you’re in a Club Balcony. What cabin perks came with your Aft Penthouse Suite?

Butler, concierge, "exclusive" dining area for breakfast and lunch, priority boarding and priority escorts off the ship in ports and debarkation. Afternoon snacks and other goodies delivered to the room. 

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