Carnival Stock Purchase

[Illbcruzn4life]

27 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Who cares? My 100 shares cost me $800. I'm with the Holds. But it does remind me to apply for $500 of OBC for my next 2 cruises.

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Bermuda Bounds post didn’t put Carnival in a good light?

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Bermuda Bounds post didn’t put Carnival in a good light?

Can't tell with all the shade being thrown.

[BermudaBound2014]

39 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Can't tell with all the shade being thrown.

 

Some analysits moved from underpreform to hold so that is positive for CCL.

 

My comment about 'monkeys and dartboard' refer to the age old study that proved monkeys throwing darts at a dartboard were no more or less accurate than analysts making stock predictions. So, I was kinda throwing shade at analysts, anthough there are good ones out there. 

 

@BlerkOne why are you always so dramatic? You post like a girl (and I'm a girl so that's not an insult) 😉 

Edited May 1, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[john91498]

lol...burn!!!!!!!! 😂

[BlerkOne]

55 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

 

@BlerkOne why are you always so dramatic? You post like a girl (and I'm a girl so that's not an insult) 😉 

You misspelled optimist.

[bowlinmoe]

Looks like another positive day for Carnival stock...

 

I sold my 103 shares this morning (after buying in May) for a small $34.00 profit (plus the $100 onboard credit I received on the cruise I just came back on).

 

It's a great deal!

 

I will be doing this again on whatever cruise line I go on next.

[trummy]

I am the the original poster in this thread. I bought 100 shares shortly after making this thread. I will make my original investment back in OBC in 2025. I didn't buy the stock in order to play the market, but for the OBC. My stock is roughly worth double what I paid for it. It's a win win. Even if the stock should bottom out at some future point, I will be ahead. 

 

Just wanted to give an overview of how it turned out in case anyone else was interested.

[rugerdog]

15 minutes ago, trummy said:

Just wanted to give an overview of how it turned out in case anyone else was interested.

Thanks for taking the time to come back and post an update.  Helpful.

[Arizona Sunshine]

2 hours ago, trummy said:

I bought 100 shares shortly after making this thread.  My stock is roughly worth double what I paid for it. 

 

.

CCL is up 9.09% in the past year. I'm not sure how your stock is worth double what you paid for it. (BTW, Fidelity 5982 is up 54.9%, Costco is up 59.9%, and chipmaker Nvidia is up 202.6% in the same time period. The S & P 500 is up 24.2%, for those who don't even want to pick stocks.)

 

I'm happy if you're happy. But I hope your OBC was enough to offset the capital appreciation you missed.

 

AS

[PayneAS]

2 hours ago, Arizona Sunshine said:

CCL is up 9.09% in the past year. I'm not sure how your stock is worth double what you paid for it.

I don't know about that person but I paid $9/share originally and today (I just looked) it is worth $18/share. If I sold today I would double what I paid for it. 🤷‍♀️

Edited Saturday at 10:58 PM by PayneAS

[Arizona Sunshine]

It's certainly possible. I relied on the "1 year later..." notification above the OPs message. The numbers I quoted are from June 29, 2023 to June 28, 2024.

 

CCL has lost 59.8% of its value in the past five years, a period in which the broad market (S&P 500) advanced 85.6%. 

 

Say someone had invested $4655 in June of 2019 (just enough to get the shareholder benefit):

 

CCL investor today has $1871

S & P 500 investor has  $8640

 

I'm glad that it worked out for you. 

 

AS

[trummy]

16 hours ago, Arizona Sunshine said:

CCL is up 9.09% in the past year. I'm not sure how your stock is worth double what you paid for it. (BTW, Fidelity 5982 is up 54.9%, Costco is up 59.9%, and chipmaker Nvidia is up 202.6% in the same time period. The S & P 500 is up 24.2%, for those who don't even want to pick stocks.)

 

I'm happy if you're happy. But I hope your OBC was enough to offset the capital appreciation you missed.

 

AS

I paid $9.61 a share when I bought the stock. The stock is now worth $18.72 a share.

[trummy]

14 hours ago, Arizona Sunshine said:

It's certainly possible. I relied on the "1 year later..." notification above the OPs message. The numbers I quoted are from June 29, 2023 to June 28, 2024.

 

CCL has lost 59.8% of its value in the past five years, a period in which the broad market (S&P 500) advanced 85.6%. 

 

Say someone had invested $4655 in June of 2019 (just enough to get the shareholder benefit):

 

CCL investor today has $1871

S & P 500 investor has  $8640

 

I'm glad that it worked out for you. 

 

AS

Not sure what 2019 has to do with my post.

 

Date Requested 5/2/23

Open Price

$9.38

Closing Price

$9.45

Day's High

$9.54

Day's Low

$9.17

Volume

33,396,177

Split Adjustment Factor

1:1

Date Requested 5/3/23

Open Price

$9.46

Closing Price

$9.43

Day's High

$9.70

Day's Low

$9.41

Volume

28,997,773

Split Adjustment Factor

1:1

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/stock-performance/historical-lookup?8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[symbols_historical]=CCL&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CCL][date_month]=04&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CCL][date_day]=30&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CCL][date_year]=2023&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CCL_L][date_month]=06&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CCL_L][date_day]=30&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CCL_L][date_year]=2024&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CUK][date_month]=06&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CUK][date_day]=30&8c7bdd83-a726-4a84-b969-494be2477e47[CUK][date_year]=2024&url=

[tidecat]

On 4/25/2023 at 5:20 PM, Arizona Sunshine said:

Of course, the "return" is a factor of the stock price. If the stock price stays at 9.075 for the next year, the "return" would indeed be just over 10% (provided that the shareholder took an eligible cruise and qualified for $100 in onboard credit).

 

How likely is that? Well:

 

The stock is down 3.5% today.

The stock is down 8% in the past week.

the stock is down 53% in the past year.

The stock is down 86% in the past five years.

 

So, as long as all the things that worried investors today, last week, last year, and since 2018 can be fixed by management --- while dealing with $35 billion in debt, the most recent of which carries an interest rate of 10.75 %--- I guess it's a "great time to buy".

Just looking at the past performance without any context can be misleading. No other industry was hit as hard by governments response to the pandemic. Now if you think there's a reasonable chance of that happening again, then yes you would be better off investing in a broad based index fund.

 

The stock was also trading at irrationally high prices before sailings had even resumed - including a nice bump when the vaccine was announced - that also makes comparison wonky.

 

Also, $29 billion of Carnival's remaining $32 billion in debt is priced below 10% - some of it as low as 1%. The next 36 months are still critical to righting the balance sheet - but if profitability returns to or exceeds 2019 levels, it would not be unreasonable to see $4-$5 billion of debt paid down each year. Whether you feel that will result in a higher returns for $CCL than the market as a whole is the decision you have to make.

 

No one talks about Royal Caribbean's debt, but their debut burden for the last three quarters of 2024 and all of 2025-26 is pretty similar to Carnival's ($7.3 billion for Carnival vs. $7.0 billion for Royal). Royal had EBDA (not EBITDA - interest and taxes use cash) of over $3 billion for 2023 so I'm not worried about them paying it off, but Royal probably isn't going to have as many opportunities to pay ahead like Carnival should.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, tidecat said:

No one talks about Royal Caribbean's debt, but their debut burden for the last three quarters of 2024 and all of 2025-26 is pretty similar to Carnival's ($7.3 billion for Carnival vs. $7.0 billion for Royal). Royal had EBDA (not EBITDA - interest and taxes use cash) of over $3 billion for 2023 so I'm not worried about them paying it off, but Royal probably isn't going to have as many opportunities to pay ahead like Carnival should.

Royal is adding more to their debt with more expensive ginormous ships. A hiccup in cruising demand would sink Royal faster. CCL keeps more cash on hand.

[tidecat]

8 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Royal is adding more to their debt with more expensive ginormous ships. A hiccup in cruising demand would sink Royal faster. CCL keeps more cash on hand.

Their additional capacity actually for 2025-28 isn't going to be that much more than Carnival Corporation's. RCI is adding about 17,800 lower berths (Star, Icon 3, Oasis 7) and Celebrity is adding 3,200 (Xcel) for a total of about 21,000. Carnival Cruise Line is adding about 10,700 (Excel 4, Excel 5) and Princess is adding 4,300 (Star) for a total of 15,000. Both companies could justifiably retire some ships if demand softens.

[BlerkOne]

11 minutes ago, tidecat said:

Their additional capacity actually for 2025-28 isn't going to be that much more than Carnival Corporation's. RCI is adding about 17,800 lower berths (Star, Icon 3, Oasis 7) and Celebrity is adding 3,200 (Xcel) for a total of about 21,000. Carnival Cruise Line is adding about 10,700 (Excel 4, Excel 5) and Princess is adding 4,300 (Star) for a total of 15,000. Both companies could justifiably retire some ships if demand softens.

what about additional debt?

[tidecat]

5 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

what about additional debt?

Any new debt for ship construction would stretch well into next decade. This debt also tends to be cheaper since the ship being built is the collateral and tends to have government support. That would only be $3-$5 billion in additional debt in the case of each company. Getting other debt paid down will free up cash for the interest and principal payments on the newer debt. If Royal takes out $3 billion per year in debt, that's about $180 million per year in interest savings, and if they do that three years in a row you're looking at over a half billion dollars. Carnival might actually see a slightly greater boost to the bottom line as a lot of their debt is between 7% and 8%.