Looks like NCL isn't alone in its decline

[Distinctive-Destinations]

2 minutes ago, luv2kroooz said:

Not currently. To date, only RCL group has reinstated their dividend, returning value to its shareholders on a comparative basis.Their stock has significantly outperformed NCLH post Corona-time.

You’re clearly missing (or deliberately ignoring) my point. No ROI would be like you invested $1000 and ten years later, it was worth $1000 (forgetting inflation). The shareholder credit, while obviously not an actual dividend, is a return as you are getting a credit for funds you would likely otherwise use. Obviously getting $100 cash is preferable, but this is some manner of return.

 

Unless you’re just here to stir the pot, in which case go ahead I guess.

[luv2kroooz]

14 minutes ago, Distinctive-Destinations said:

You’re clearly missing (or deliberately ignoring) my point. No ROI would be like you invested $1000 and ten years later, it was worth $1000 (forgetting inflation). The shareholder credit, while obviously not an actual dividend, is a return as you are getting a credit for funds you would likely otherwise use. Obviously getting $100 cash is preferable, but this is some manner of return.

 

Unless you’re just here to stir the pot, in which case go ahead I guess.

No pot stirring here. Stating facts only. Not sure why you decided to interject yourself here, maybe to stir the proverbial pot, whatever that means...

 

Yes, a shareholder OBC credit can be a return. We agree.  My point is it is available on any cruise line we sail on so it is a wash. My simple point is that I would be in far better financial position by owning RCL, where I get OBC, cash dividend, and a growth rate of over 100% in stock price since Corona time versus NCLH where I get OBC, no cash dividend, and no growth in stock price.

 

A better observation is that there appears to be direct correlation in the current NCLH stock price and the product offering declines noted in this thread and that the recovery may not be progressing as well as the executive management may want us to believe. Their job is to create a return for their stockholders.

 

 

Edited September 6 by luv2kroooz

[Crown Vic]

3 hours ago, Oakman58 said:

Yes, all the cruise lines have cut back since Covid, but NCL started noticeable cutbacks years before Covid hit.  The most noticeable for me was no lobster in the main dining room without an upcharge and then after that, no lobster at all.

Just back from a NYC-Bermuda cruise on MSC. Very good indeed. Menus and buffet top notch. Similar to menus 10 years ago on NCL etc. Lobster and filet mignon on the regular dining room menu. Problem? Waist line expansion...

Cheers…

[luv2kroooz]

4 minutes ago, Crown Vic said:

Just back from a NYC-Bermuda cruise on MSC. Very good indeed. Menus and buffet top notch. Similar to menus 10 years ago on NCL etc. Lobster and filet mignon on the regular dining room menu. Problem? Waist line expansion...

Cheers…

Refreshing to hear!!! Except the waist line part. 

[Oakman58]

19 minutes ago, Crown Vic said:

Just back from a NYC-Bermuda cruise on MSC. Very good indeed. Menus and buffet top notch. Similar to menus 10 years ago on NCL etc. Lobster and filet mignon on the regular dining room menu. Problem? Waist line expansion...

Cheers…

 

I was talking about NCL not MSC.  Most other cruise lines still offer lobster in the main dining room without an upcharge.

[scooter6139]

17 hours ago, luv2kroooz said:

Dont confuse facts with complaints.

Agreed.  Everyone has an opinion, but not everyone has any facts.

 

16 hours ago, asctony said:

Maybe you will get old one day and someone will be able to explain to you -

 

Or ignore you.

 

EXPERIENCE OVER TIME.

 

Sail on bye! SMH

What do you consider old?  Are only old people allowed to comment?  I feel old, so does that count?

 

15 hours ago, SeaShark said:

 

You state you "just ignore it all" yet here you are reading the thread and posting to the thread. Not exactly what I would consider "ignoring it all".

Yes, here I am, posting in an online forum in a thread about people complaining.  Imagine that.  🙄

[ChiefMateJRK]

3 hours ago, luv2kroooz said:

My simple point is that I would be in far better financial position by owning RCL, where I get OBC, cash dividend, and a growth rate of over 100% in stock price since Corona time versus NCLH where I get OBC, no cash dividend, and no growth in stock price.

All this proves (if true) is that RCL WAS a better investment when you bought it.  It proves nothing about which is the better investment today.

[luv2kroooz]

2 minutes ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

All this proves (if true) is that RCL WAS a better investment when you bought it.  It proves nothing about which is the better investment today.

LOL! Oh ok! RCL just reinstated their dividend. It is an even better investment TODAY!! Of course, only if you had the wisdom to acquire it back then. Not an advisable investment today. More downside the upside.

[ChiefMateJRK]

4 minutes ago, luv2kroooz said:

LOL! Oh ok! RCL just reinstated their dividend. It is an even better investment TODAY!! Of course, only if you had the wisdom to acquire it back then. Not an advisable investment today. More downside the upside.

All of this is known information, which means that the efficient market has already priced that into the current prices of both stocks.  This is equity investing 101.  The future?  Nobody knows nothin'.  Laugh away.....

[luv2kroooz]

Just now, ChiefMateJRK said:

All of this is known information, which means that the efficient market has already priced that into the current prices of both stocks.  This is equity investing 101.  

...of course it is

[PhillyTravelBug]

5 hours ago, luv2kroooz said:

Not currently. To date, only RCL group has reinstated their dividend, returning value to its shareholders on a comparative basis.Their stock has significantly outperformed NCLH post Corona-time.

In the time since I started my portfolio this year, their stock went from $127 to $160. 
 

we have our first celebrity cruise booked for next summer on Ascent and very excited. Sailing Disney with my mom to celebrate her 60th. Looking forward to seeing and comparing other lines to NCL.

[psuboater]

We were big X fans, choosing the smaller Summit over the Joy for our annual Bermuda trip. We noticed a decline before the pandemic in 2019, but not enough to switch lines. In 2022, the declines were shocking. We had restarted our cruising on Royal 2 months prior to that and didn't notice as sharp of a decline. We understood the pandemic was going to make cuts, but X was noticably different, especially for the price tag. 

 

When the announcement came in early 2023 they were cutting back the buffet for dinner (which was a favorite for us because they used to fresh meat/fish made to order, and when we were docked in Bermuda they used to grill the fresh fish, and sitting on the back of the ship near the Sunset Bar was a favorite)-- but still charging 30% more than the same sailing on NCL, we switched to NCL.

 

For us, we do "Haven Lite" - a Club Balcony, Vibe, FAS+ and now the Thermal Spa, and we feel we get the Celebrity experience at less cost than the base fare of Celebrity. 

[LatinaInTexas]

8 hours ago, Crown Vic said:

Just back from a NYC-Bermuda cruise on MSC. Very good indeed. Menus and buffet top notch. Similar to menus 10 years ago on NCL etc. Lobster and filet mignon on the regular dining room menu. Problem? Waist line expansion...

Cheers…

I thought all the meals in the MDR on MSC were very well presented and tasted delicious as was the buffet. It was a treat to get both lobster and filet in the MDR.

[bonvoyagie]

One also has to remember that MSC is also a freight line and gets most of its revenue from that source so they can offer cheaper cruises with better service. 

[ChiefMateJRK]

1 hour ago, bonvoyagie said:

One also has to remember that MSC is also a freight line and gets most of its revenue from that source so they can offer cheaper cruises with better service. 

That sounds like a bad business model.  Divert profits from a viable business activity to subsidize a poor one?

[luv2kroooz]

3 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

That sounds like a bad business model.  Divert profits from a viable business activity to subsidize a poor one?

Economics 101. Happens routinely in situations where a company wants to expand into new markets. The mature segment temporarily supports the developing segment. "Divert Profits" is a poor choice of words.

[CruiseMH]

5 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

That sounds like a bad business model.  Divert profits from a viable business activity to subsidize a poor one?

It is very simple. With good service and cheap prices you will win the competition. The long term goal is to weaken or even destroy the competitors. The fewer competitors you have the easier it will be to make money.

MSC earns billions and billions with their freight business,so they don`t care whether they don`t make big profits with their cruise line. In Europe all their competitors (mainly Costa + AIDA, and maybe RCL a bit) don`t have this option.

 

 

[Oakman58]

The last time we were on Holland (June '23) they offered a Surf and Turf in their main dining room.  My wife doesn't like lobster so she gave me hers, Woo Hoo!

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, CruiseMH said:

It is very simple. With good service and cheap prices you will win the competition. The long term goal is to weaken or even destroy the competitors. The fewer competitors you have the easier it will be to make money.

MSC earns billions and billions with their freight business,so they don`t care whether they don`t make big profits with their cruise line. In Europe all their competitors (mainly Costa + AIDA, and maybe RCL a bit) don`t have this option.

 

 

And once you have destroyed your competition with your cheap prices, then you can raise your prices.

[graphicguy]

18 hours ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

All this proves (if true) is that RCL WAS a better investment when you bought it.  It proves nothing about which is the better investment today.

My ROI was good owning NCL stock.  Bought at 11....sold at 16....OBC for the cruises I took equaled $600.  I doubled my original $1,100 investment.  I wish all my bigger investments would offer that ROI.

Edited September 7 by graphicguy

[Menocchio]

MSC's real advantage is probably that it's a privately held corporation. Everyone else has to answer to shareholders who only care about the stock price, and even then largely only over the short term. MSC can hold a longer view and focus more directly on the fundamentals of their actual business. 

[MyriamS]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:25 AM, ocdb8r said:

I believe there will be some consolidation on the horizon - I don't believe the insane demand we've seen over the past 18-24 months will continue at the same pace. The airlines are already seeing the subsidence of "revenge travel" and both general demand for cruising and the massive increase in on-board spending will also start to subside.  All of this will happen as there are THOUSANDS of more berths coming online (both RCCL and MSC have multiple 200,000+ ton ships coming online, along with plenty of other "big" ships coming from the other lines).  Ahead of any consolidation, I think there will be a return to some of the "deals" and pricing we saw pre-COVID, but I think the lines will continue to try to focus on "efficiency" so we may not see a return to some of the quality we saw in the past.

This. At least in Europe, airlines are now complaining about lower than expected profit after jacking up their prices and making flying an extremely unpleasant experience. Well, duh. Who could have expected that? 

 

Cruising is even more sensitive to a downturn in customer demand as they have ordered (and presumably committed to pay for) several mega ships over the next few years. Honestly it seems crazy to me that they would order so many of those ships without knowing if they can fill them. People might have been willing to pay silly money to get on Icon of the Seas, but will they be as enthusiastic about Icon 3 or 4? Is there really long term demand for dozens of mega ships doing the same few itineraries on a loop? Personally I don't think so, so I would expect cruise prices to drop pretty significantly in the next five years. Meanwhile we will keep looking for the few decent deals out there. 

Edited September 7 by MyriamS

[Menocchio]

My personal theory is that the megaships are an answer to anticipated future problems for cruises. Specifically, it makes them less dependent on the ports.

 

What's that? Half the planet has banned cruise ships and the other half are having civil wars? That's fine, we don't need to go to any of those places. There's plenty to do on our floating theme park and we'll make a quick stop at our fortified private island. Also Nassau. 

[ChiefMateJRK]

9 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

With good service and cheap prices you will win the competition. The long term goal is to weaken or even destroy the competitors. The fewer competitors you have the easier it will be to make money.

Well, based upon current NCL bookings, if this is their strategy it doesn't appear to be working.

[CruiseMH]

31 minutes ago, ChiefMateJRK said:

Well, based upon current NCL bookings, if this is their strategy it doesn't appear to be working.

 

NCL is not their main competitor. 😉