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Royal Caribbean stock is up


rozen

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For those that bought in around the first few months of 2009 (around 6 / share), it has been a good ride up.

 

I bougnt my RCL right after 9-11 at 11 and have been up to 45, down to 7 (bought some more) and now back up to 39.

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The uptick gave me a chance to unload most of my RCL stock, and I was happy to do so. My sale dropped the price 2 cents. I had no idea that my holdings could have such effect.

 

I've been wanting to drop RCL ever since Adam Goldstein decided to abandon the West Coast Market. The stock then was at $37, but I didn't act quickly enough, and the stock soon plummeted. Business begins with a customer but RCL now seems to think that it begins in the Countinghouse and that investors don't care much about customers.

 

Once a market is abandoned totally, as RCL is doing with its West Coast customers, the cruise line wiill have to start over if it ever wants to have a Pacific Ocean presence. The loss of customers will hurt the investors over time, though short term measures can make things look rosy.

 

We just returned from a cruise to find more shrinking of repeat customer benefits, including having RCL pocket any unspent on board credit. These changes to the detriment of customers, loss of investor benefits, loss of upgrades, on and on, have not been announced to the people affected so we just find out after the damage is done.

 

Then there's the gift department. We ordered a gift for ourselves. It never arrived. The onboard staff assured us that no charge was made so we should forget about it. Our credit card told a different story. How often does RCL sell a gift that doesn't get delivered. The gift giver probably thinks the gift receiver ungrateful but the receiver never knows since the gift is not delivered. But the charge is still made. That sure helps the bottom line.

 

Celebrity seems to be functioning better than RCL. Isn't it about time for Richard Fain to swap his two heirs apparent before his prize company abadons more customers.

 

As for me, I felt tremendous relief today to be able to off load my RCL stock concentration. Now I can watch the cruise line's countinghouse mentality from the sidelines. What do other investors think of the short term focus of the current management team?

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As for me, I felt tremendous relief today to be able to off load my RCL stock concentration. Now I can watch the cruise line's countinghouse mentality from the sidelines. What do other investors think of the short term focus of the current management team?

 

I can understand the cost cutting but when does it end? I listened to the conference call and one thing that made me pause was the comment that they were worried about food inflation, and that the people responsible had 'marching orders' to address how to keep costs down. They have made so many cuts in the food area that I'm not sure what else they can do.

 

Right now they are still all about looking to save every potential penny.

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There's no question that they're cutting the attractiveness of the product, including the investment in the food in the dining room.

 

We chose MyTime dining this last cruise after having sat at half empty tables on the cruises before that. If RCL wants to save money, why does it insist on mostly assigned seating, paying serving staff to be at the ready for guests who don't show up for dinner?

 

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that the onboard experience is being sacrificed to presumptions about what investors want and probably also sacrificed to the enhancement of executive bonus payouts.

 

My experience is that executives are not motivated by the lifestyle that their bonuses provide but by the winning score that a bigger bonus than that of their other college classmates represents. These are competitive people for whom winning is everything; they aren't motivated by service to customers.

 

This distinction, i.e. service vs. winning, is the big differentiator between the entrepreneurs who found businesses and the functionaries who lead them sideways thereafter. That's why long established businesses get superseded by new upstarts.

 

Royal Caribbean is not performing well since it's just managing the numbers and not trying to provide a wonderful experience for the customers.

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The uptick gave me a chance to unload most of my RCL stock, and I was happy to do so. My sale dropped the price 2 cents. I had no idea that my holdings could have such effect.

 

I've been wanting to drop RCL ever since Adam Goldstein decided to abandon the West Coast Market. The stock then was at $37, but I didn't act quickly enough, and the stock soon plummeted. Business begins with a customer but RCL now seems to think that it begins in the Countinghouse and that investors don't care much about customers.

 

Once a market is abandoned totally, as RCL is doing with its West Coast customers, the cruise line wiill have to start over if it ever wants to have a Pacific Ocean presence.

 

I tend to disagree with your analysis that the abandonment of the west coast will be a negative for the stock.

 

Remember that those ships which served the west coast are now elsewhere, including the European market. As I recall, west coast prices to Mexico were among the lowest fleetwide, making the profit margin exceedingly small. Higher rates can be charged in Europe.

 

Right now, I would be very careful in purchasing RCL. (You probably did well to cash out). The problem, however, will be more related to over capacity rather than abandonment of the west coast. When the initial enthusiasm for Oasis and Allure wears off, the question will be if RCCL will be able to fill a capacity of 12,000 people each week. My guess is that it will become more and more dificult and price cutting will take place, lowering profit margin.

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I tend to disagree with your analysis that the abandonment of the west coast will be a negative for the stock.

 

Remember that those ships which served the west coast are now elsewhere, including the European market. As I recall, west coast prices to Mexico were among the lowest fleetwide, making the profit margin exceedingly small. Higher rates can be charged in Europe."

 

Hi, Yogi, you're astute and partly correct, though I'm mad as h**l that Goldstein just abandoned an entire market. RCCL is imaginative in serving Miami-Fort Lauderdale since the execs live in Coral Gables, but there is no imagination in serving the West Coast market.

 

During H1N1 time we were fortunate to be able to cruise to San Francisco and Astoria, OR and Seattle and lovely Victoria, BC, a delightful small city with gorgeous gardens and friendly people.

 

Instead of continuing to develop these American ports of call, at least in the warm weather months, RCCL went back to yoyo trips from Los Angeles to the Walmart in Puerto Vallarta. It's gotten so boring that many, many West Coast cruisers don't even get off the ship.

 

In the meantime, Holland American is innovating and creating attractive cruise options for those of us in California.

 

Right now the Euro Dollar ratio makes cruising on an American cruise line cheap for Europeans but many of those Europeans will soon get bored with the cruises they're offered and would love nothing more than a cruise with an overnight stay in San Francisco.

 

And Royal Caribbean has been no less than dumb in developing the German market which is one of the most vibrant, most travel oriented markets in Europe.

 

This takes me back to the premise that business begins with a customer. Anyone who has ever started a business remembers that first customer. Investors in a business without customers or with dwindling customer numbers are investors in Blue Sky.

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I also sold my stock. I believe Adam G. has made a mistake leaving a loyal base with no option on the west coast. I can only hope for there return to be soon but I am not holding my breath. They will loose some loyal customers, but they took the gamble of abandoning us instead of mixing up MOS itinerary.

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[During H1N1 time we were fortunate to be able to cruise to San Francisco and Astoria, OR and Seattle and lovely Victoria, BC, a delightful small city with gorgeous gardens and friendly people.

 

 

 

You make excellent points. Our daughter lives in San Francisco and I was recently looking at some "wine cruises" offered by Celebrity which included stops in San Francisco, Astoria and other coast locations.

 

Celebrity is owned by RCL, so, in a way, they still have a west coast presence unless they are also pulling Celebrity out.

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You make excellent points. Our daughter lives in San Francisco and I was recently looking at some "wine cruises" offered by Celebrity which included stops in San Francisco, Astoria and other coast locations.

 

Celebrity is owned by RCL, so, in a way, they still have a west coast presence unless they are also pulling Celebrity out.

 

There are only 2 cruise in 2011 and 2 in 2012 the ship is repositioning from alaska to caribbean vice versa, so no west coast presence at all.

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