airfare any seat sales in our future?

[Globaliser]

The situation is that the non-stops from Indy to Tampa are CHEAPER for the non-stops.

How do you know that?

 

Do you actually price the other airlines' flights before Southwest releases its prices? That's the real issue.

 

Or to put it another way, the issue is whether this happens (on a purely hypothetical route, with purely hypothetical numbers):-

• At 330 days out (or whatever), other airlines start selling tickets at $100 per person.
• At 150 days out, the other airlines' prices have gone up to $150 because the cheaper seats have been sold.
• At 100 days out, the other airlines' prices have gone up to $200.
• At 90 days out, when the other airlines' prices are still $200, Southwest opens for booking and charges $175.

At that point, Southwest is cheaper than the other airlines. But someone who booked with a different airline earlier could have got a significantly cheaper ticket.

 

Some people may have good reason for only looking at Southwest's prices, perhaps because it's the only non-stop option in the market that you're interested in and you need or highly prize non-stop flights, or because Southwest's schedules are relatively stable once they're published. (I'm with you here, because I fall into a similar category for many of my trips.) But for someone who's interested in the whole market, waiting for Southwest to open for booking may mean that they pay more money than they needed to.

[deborahjo]

Or not. You cannot count on the lowest fare price to be available when most airlines release seats for booking, ~331 days before the flight.

 

 

That's like saying if you wear a nice suit and tell the gate agent you are on your honeymoon, you'll get a free upgrade. Just not true.

 

 

 

 

For all airlines to meet and agree on prices would be in violation of anti-trust laws. This is not true.

 

Did not say they met and agreed to price increase. Just said Southwest agreed to the increase. CNN reported that when Southwest also announces they are increasing by the $20 it usually holds.

[6rugrats]

Did not say they met and agreed to price increase. Just said Southwest agreed to the increase. CNN reported that when Southwest also announces they are increasing by the $20 it usually holds.

 

You've lost me here. All airlines agreeing, whether they met physically or not, is called price-fixing and is against the law. I think you may may have misunderstood this story.

[waterbug123]

How do you know that?

 

Do you actually price the other airlines' flights before Southwest releases its prices? That's the real issue.

 

Or to put it another way, the issue is whether this happens (on a purely hypothetical route, with purely hypothetical numbers):-

• At 330 days out (or whatever), other airlines start selling tickets at $100 per person.
• At 150 days out, the other airlines' prices have gone up to $150 because the cheaper seats have been sold.
• At 100 days out, the other airlines' prices have gone up to $200.
• At 90 days out, when the other airlines' prices are still $200, Southwest opens for booking and charges $175.

At that point, Southwest is cheaper than the other airlines. But someone who booked with a different airline earlier could have got a significantly cheaper ticket.

 

This is a great explanation of why "I looked at all the airlines and SW was cheapest" is a very apples to orange type of comparison.

[waterbug123]

Anyone know if there is any chance of airfare going down at all? Any inside info on seat sales? The prices for our flights to seattle are very high and hoping I might catch a break on them.

 

Yes, there is always a chance of that. But I suspect that what you are really trying to ask is if there is some magic way of knowing for sure 1) when any such decrease might occur, and 2) how much it would be. The answer to those questions is a definitive no.

[critterchick]

In October we booked a trip to Maui for April, and at the time AA wanted just over $800pp for the rountrip from LA. I just couldn't do it and held out until two weeks ago, when the price dropped to $542. So there's always a chance. But if you see a fare that you think is reasonable, book it and then don't look at the prices any more.:)

[scottbee]

OK; let's start with the OP's question. When, and where from are you heading to Seattle? SEA's largest carrier is AS/Alaska Air; How do we lower a price on AS ?

 

 

1. Book now and just claim the difference if the price go down. AS are one of the few carriers to offer this, and it's worthwhile. Even on a cheap itinerary, you can save $100 if the price goes down.
   
2. Get an AS credit card ($75/year). It comes with a $99 companion cert, so if you're booking two tickets, you pay regular price for the 1st one, but only $99 for the second. I use this all the time
   

Without more specific information I can't be more helpful. However, back to your original question; why would an airline give any hint of a seat sale in advance? People would just wait for the sale.

[Donray]

Multiple misconceptions to be addressed:

And just who was this "It" and "They"?? As mentioned before, what you are alleging is called price-fixing. Prices may be rising, but that's a function of supply and demand combined with market and cost considerations. Fewer available seat miles combined with increased costs = guess what??

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahtDY6tJGjgk

Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co. and other major U.S. carriers raised fares $20 round trip in the first successful price increase for most domestic routes this year.

The higher prices, initiated separately on June 10 by Delta and US Airways Group Inc., gradually were matched by other U.S. carriers, including Southwest, the largest low-fare airline. It was the first broad increase in 2009, US Airways and American Airlines confirmed.

[elainesj]

Why were you "hoping for a deal"? You had a baseline from your research yet you held out for "better".

 

So, you knew the baseline for pricing was in the $300 range, your flights kept going up and you finally bailed into other less-desired flights for an 18% premium over the historic average..

 

The previous year I did get a great Cyber Monday sale - tix that were regularly $250 -$300 were just $150 for my flight to Orlando in Jan 2011. So this time I decided to hold out and wait and see. Then I read somewhere that seats often go on sale 2-3 months before the flight. So I continued to wait until I bought my tix last week for our March flight. We gambled...and lost this time around. You win some, you lose some.

 

From my limited understanding, ticket prices DO drop every once in a while, right? So we decided to take a chance and wait. I am defnitely a lot more reluctant to wait now, but we'll see. I have to purchase my next flight to Orlando this August but am hoping because I'm flying at the end of August it won't be peak season for flights. We'll see. I'll prob wait until April to buy tickets and hope for the best.

 

I'm continuing to read this thread with interest - I really don't understand the flight market yet and it's fabulous to learn from more experienced folks!

[FlyerTalker]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahtDY6tJGjgk

Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co. and other major U.S. carriers raised fares $20 round trip in the first successful price increase for most domestic routes this year.

 

The higher prices, initiated separately on June 10 by Delta and US Airways Group Inc., gradually were matched by other U.S. carriers, including Southwest, the largest low-fare airline. It was the first broad increase in 2009, US Airways and American Airlines confirmed.

 

That's quite different than what the poster wrote, which was: "All the airlines just did a $20 increase for longer flights"

 

I guess that for some, seven months ago equals "just did". Again, it remains a factor of supply, demand and cost structure.

[FlyerTalker]

For purposes of education, let's drill into detail.

The previous year I did get a great Cyber Monday sale - tix that were regularly $250 -$300 were just $150 for my flight to Orlando in Jan 2011. So this time I decided to hold out and wait and see.

Think to ads for mutual funds. How they state "Past results are no guarantee of future performance". Same thing with airline pricing. Just because something happened in the past has little bearing on what will happen now and in the future. There is an anchoring bias here, in that you remember a favorable result in the past that affects current decision making.

Then I read somewhere that seats often go on sale 2-3 months before the flight. So I continued to wait until I bought my tix last week for our March flight. We gambled...and lost this time around. You win some, you lose some.

Be very careful with the "read somewhere". Many such pieces of travel "advice" have no basis in fact.

 

Let's drill into your statement. If you think about that, there would be a never-ending rolling sale on tickets in the 60-90 day window. But that flies in the face of business logic. Airline "sales", which are different than market-based adjustments on individual flights, have definitive start and stop dates, both for purchase and for travel. If your travel date falls outside that window, it doesn't matter if there is a "sale" - you can't utilize it. Do airlines need to put on "sales" for time periods of high demand? Nope - it is in the doldrum periods when they want to stimulate demand. Or if there is a decision to attack certain markets to garner share. Sales don't happen just because of a calendar or for something to do.

 

From my limited understanding, ticket prices DO drop every once in a while, right? So we decided to take a chance and wait.

Prices do drop, but for economic reasons. Airline seats are a perishable commodity, so airline management will work to fill seats in an economically efficient manner. This does not mean that they will drop prices just to fill a plane, as that is not economically efficient. What they will do is adjust inventory and pricing to maximize return. However, trying to predict when pricing MAY drop, for what routes, and for what dates of travel is no better than throwing a dart. In fact, the dart may be more accurate. One thing easier to predict is pricing going up. High demand factors leads to increasing prices. Note how ticket pricing at Christmas or Thanksgiving doesn't go down.

 

So, the question becomes....how much of a gambler are you? What is your risk tolerance regarding waiting for an unknown possibility of a price drop?

I am defnitely a lot more reluctant to wait now, but we'll see. I have to purchase my next flight to Orlando this August but am hoping because I'm flying at the end of August it won't be peak season for flights. We'll see. I'll prob wait until April to buy tickets and hope for the best.

Why would August be a low demand time to MCO? Is school on vacation? Would families use this time to go see Mickey et al?? In contrast, flying to Scandinavia in February is logically not peak season. Challenge your assumptions to see whether they hold water or if it is just "hoping". "Hoping" gets you nowhere.

 

Next, you say that you will wait until April to buy tickets and "hope for the best". Wouldn't it be better to be keeping an eye on pricing now, and if you see a price you are happy with, snatching it up? Is there a rational reason for waiting three months and then deciding to buy? How would you feel if you missed out on a good price because you weren't researching and regularly pricing out alternatives?

I'm continuing to read this thread with interest - I really don't understand the flight market yet and it's fabulous to learn from more experienced folks!

One of the things I try to do is work on the thought process -- to reduce the "hoping" and debunk the myths that people have.

 

One of the biggest problems is that people keep trying to think of airline tickets in the same way as they view cereal in the grocery store. There is a listed price, boxes on the shelf, and you just take one to the checkout counter and pay the listed price. They try to apply the same "rules" of market behavior but it just doesn't work that way. Airline ticket pricing is much more of a matrix-driven system. Elements go beyond basic supply and demand to include:

• Date of purchase
  
• Date of use
  
• Time of day of use
  
• Specific demand for specific flights
  
• Multiple fare buckets
  
• Distinct rules and pricing for multiple "fares"
  
• Dynamic inventory allocation into those buckets
  
• Yield management algorithms to maximize return
  
• Other factors beyond these listed
  

So, lots of grist for the mill. I hope you know that I am not picking on you or your choices, just trying to illustrate and educate. I'm happy to help anyone out in trying to understand the nuts and bolts of why tickets cost what they do, so feel free to ask away.

[kenish]

Thanks I might try that! We are smack in the middle of Raleigh and Charlotte NC - Go Heels!

first son only wrestled in HS but now helps coach his Middle school team - he is a freshman in college. 2nd son - sophmore in HS missed first part of season d/t football - so his record is thumbs down - he love wrestling but is actually more of a football player. (wrestled 71 last year this year 220) Congrats to your son - my husband would be in wrestling heaven if either of ours went D-1:)

 

Thanks for the congrats! My son's focus is academic, but if his college didn't have wrestling he wouldn't be happy and it was a key "tiebreaker" in his choice. He was a walk-on freshman but a senior got injured, so my son unexpectedly and suddenly ended up as a starter just a week into the school year.

 

Great that your first son is coaching, and the middle school has a wrestling program. Unfortunately many universities here in Calif. are cutting their wrestling teams due to Title 9. One nice thing about collegiate wrestling, there's only 10 weight classes to remember. But your second son would fall in a strange gap, the classes are 197 or 285!

[Riverroad]

The link that Donray included in his post was from June 17, 2009, two years and 7 months ago.

[Globaliser]

the link that donray included in his post was from june 17, 2009, two years and 7 months ago.

RoTFL! :D

[mumofsons]

Wow - I now know alot more about airline tickets.

I quess I would ask if anyone might know of a seat sale more as a trend like - SW always has a seat sale in Feb.

It is interesting the different answers on the thread and again thanks for all that gave helpful information - went ahead and got the tickets.

[FlyerTalker]

The link that Donray included in his post was from June 17, 2009, two years and 7 months ago.

You bothered to click the link....I just read the text and moved onward. Thanks for the fact-check.

[elainesj]

So, the question becomes....how much of a gambler are you? What is your risk tolerance regarding waiting for an unknown possibility of a price drop?

Why would August be a low demand time to MCO? Is school on vacation? Would families use this time to go see Mickey et al?? In contrast, flying to Scandinavia in February is logically not peak season. Challenge your assumptions to see whether they hold water or if it is just "hoping". "Hoping" gets you nowhere.

 

Next, you say that you will wait until April to buy tickets and "hope for the best". Wouldn't it be better to be keeping an eye on pricing now, and if you see a price you are happy with, snatching it up? Is there a rational reason for waiting three months and then deciding to buy? How would you feel if you missed out on a good price because you weren't researching and regularly pricing out alternatives?One of the things I try to do is work on the thought process -- to reduce the "hoping" and debunk the myths that people have.

 

You've been very helpful...and informative. As a consumer, it really helps to start understanding a bit about the nuts and bolts of pricing.

 

As for our current flight in March, I checked the available seats, etc and it's selling well and the flight I paid $355 for last week is now $460. I'm really glad I jumped on it when I did even though I would have done even better to buy it the week before.

 

Now for my August flight, its during low season in Orlando as its the end of August and many kids have gone back to school. I've started watching flights and will continue tracking flight prices. if prices dip, I'll grab it. Knowing it's low season, do u think it's OK to wait or do you think I should just bite the bullet and buy our tix now?

[kenish]

Now for my August flight, its during low season in Orlando as its the end of August and many kids have gone back to school. I've started watching flights and will continue tracking flight prices. if prices dip, I'll grab it. Knowing it's low season, do u think it's OK to wait or do you think I should just bite the bullet and buy our tix now?

 

I'd buy now...here's a few reasons why:

 

Maybe schools in your region start in August due to snow days...but on the West Coast and many other parts of the country school starts after Labor Day or even mid-September. Same goes for colleges. One good way to gauge Orlando tourist volume is check Disney pass blackout dates.

 

Fares tend to be low right now because people's attention and budget were focused on the holidays. But it will soon shift to summer vacation planning and the lowest fares will start to sell out.

 

Last but not least- An airline's biggest expense is fuel and fares are adjusted on predicted fuel prices. I've found that gas prices and airfares correlate since they're both driven by crude prices. Most pundits expect gas prices at the pump to hit record highs this spring and summer....on the news tonight an analyst said to add $1 to the current gas prices in your area and that's what we will be paying by June. Guess what that says about airfares? (Greatam tracks fuel prices closely as part of her business operations and may have more to say about this).

 

My $.02 worth, hope it helps!

[greatam]

Last but not least- An airline's biggest expense is fuel and fares are adjusted on predicted fuel prices. I've found that gas prices and airfares correlate since they're both driven by crude prices. Most pundits expect gas prices at the pump to hit record highs this spring and summer....on the news tonight an analyst said to add $1 to the current gas prices in your area and that's what we will be paying by June. Guess what that says about airfares? (Greatam tracks fuel prices closely as part of her business operations and may have more to say about this).

 

My $.02 worth, hope it helps!

 

Fuel prices are expected to rise to over $4.00 per gallon for gasoline and $5.00 for diesel fuel by mid summer. ALL TIME HIGHS. Jet fuel will rise by about the same percentages.

 

Don't even get me going about all the stupidity going on in the world today. OT but just a few little tidbits of what is really happening in our world (and particularly my world which is transporting food worldwide and I depend very heavily on fuel prices both in my trucks and in our air shipments to make any money.).

 

Saudi and China just inked a new deal to build a REFINERY to provide gasoline/diesel to China. When was the last time the USA built a new refinery? Richard Branson owns 4000 acres about 80 miles from our office. A consortium of investors was going to build a new refinery to serve the West Coast. The Indian tribes got involved (one tribe with 2 people from the EAST COAST) and said their ancestors may have been buried on that land and it was sacred ground. The land abuts the Yuma US Army Proving Ground where they blow s*** up every day, so it is not exactly a scenic paradise. With the indigenous tribes moving freely across the SW for hundreds of years, I bet there is not a square mile of SW Arizona desert that probably doesn't have someone buried in it (including my own 40 acres of desert)

 

87% of the fresh apples we eat are grown in the USA. 92% of the APPLE JUICE we drink comes from China. Produce imports from Mexico have risen almost 40% over last year. My company brings a lot of produce to the North Eastern markets. From October through just about now, the produce just kind of dribbles across the border, then in January-end of March it comes in heavy. This year, it has been shipping heavy since the first of October.

 

WHY??? Land is being taken out of FOOD production in the USA for solar and wind farms. I am surrounded by 9000 acres of highly productive farm land-hay for the dairies that are within 30 miles of my business (10 cuttings a year) and 3 crops of honeydews and canteloupes as well as 4 crops of watermelons, some garbanzo beans and about 600 acres of Thompson seedless grapes. This doesn't even count the 16,000 acres where cotton is grown. EVERY farmer out here has been asked to sell their land for solar. And the companies are offering 6-10 times what the land is worth for farmland. MOST have signed options with these companies, which means even MORE imported foods (where quality control is NOT particularly good and sanitation lacks BIG TIME-remember all the e coli scares from Mexican imported produce) and the price of food will rise even more than just adding in the cost of increased diesel fuel prices.

 

And ALL of this adds to fuel and food prices which impact cruise lines, airlines, hotels, restaurants, etc. etc. Every wonder why the CPI does not include food and fuel??? It's because of all the "unintended consequences" that government policies provoke.

 

Sorry for the rant but it is these BEHIND the scenes things so many don't even think of.

 

As Kenish posted, buy those airline tickets now. I certainly don't see them getting any cheaper any time soon.

[elainesj]

Som awesome points - we might just have to bite the bullet and buy the tix now!

[Lookingforfacts]

Flyertalk is technically right but Deborah isn't really wrong. I've never seen flyertalk post bad information, including this post.

 

One (or more) airlines announce a fare increase. Other airlines either match the fare increase or decide to keep their current fares. Most airlines match the increase and "it sticks". Other airlines don't match the fare increase and the first airline reverses the increase.

 

It would be illegal for the airlines to literally talk and decide on fares. It's not illegal for an airline to issue press release regarding a fare increase. It's not illegal for another airline to issue a press release matching the fare increase, increasing their fare by a different amount or maintaining the current fare.

 

Southwest is more of main line airline then a discount (low cost) airline. An increase might not "stick" if Southwest doesn't "agree" to the increase by publicly matching the new fare.

 

 

Just another way of saying fares are more likely to increase then decrease. The experts in this forum don't think much of cruise air. Several reasons all valid. I still think people should check it. Gives you a basis for comparison. It's possible the cruise line has some seats available at already negotiated consolidator fares. It gives you an idea as to what number you should be trying to "beat"

 

Greatam made some points regarding farmland and food prices. Another factor is the increasing amount of corn, and land used to grow corn, which is being diverted from food (and feed) use in favor of ethanol production for fuel.

 

 

 

All the airlines just did a $20 increase for longer flights. It said 1500 miles and longer. They said that this increase would go thru because EVEN SOUTHWEST agreed to it. No sign of it going down.

 

Multiple misconceptions to be addressed:

And just who was this "It" and "They"?? As mentioned before, what you are alleging is called price-fixing. Prices may be rising, but that's a function of supply and demand combined with market and cost considerations. Fewer available seat miles combined with increased costs = guess what??

[greatam]

Greatam made some points regarding farmland and food prices. Another factor is the increasing amount of corn, and land used to grow corn, which is being diverted from food (and feed) use in favor of ethanol production for fuel.

 

Thank you for bringing this up. Another big bug in my b***. Our neighbors in Missouri, who have farmed over 4000 acres for 3 generations (corn, soybeans and sunflowers) have just leased 2800 of their acres for a WIND FARM. So even though they heavily participated in the ethanol subsidies (and CRP and every other government subsidy), they are now going to make more money leasing their land for some da*** stupid windmills that produce LITTLE POWER for the land they use (both my Dad (passed) and my husband were/are electrical engineers) and their corn crop won't even go into ethanol, let alone feed the pigs at the world's 3rd largest hog production facility, Premium Standard Farms, which is based less than 12 miles from most of their farm ground. http://www.psfarms.com/index.html

 

Premium Standard has now been sold to Smithway, the largest hog producer in the world. And PSF has gotten away from the EXTREMELY lean, low fat hogs they were producing initially for the overseas market (primarily Asia). But the pork prices keep going up and up, even though they are now producing "inferior" quality pigs (lots of fat).

 

And the company that is leasing my neighbors farm is from EUROPE. US GOVERNMENT subsidies to wipe out the food supply in the USA in favor of FOREIGN interests??? What in the h*** is that all about????

 

Just another example of why food and fuel prices keep rising and airline fares are almost getting out of reach of some of the population. It is RAPIDLY going back to a time when only the wealthy will be able to cruise or be able to fly.

 

I am very thankful I have over 1,000,000 AA miles on the books. MAYBE I can take a vacation or fly in business class instead of the back of the bus the next time I leave the USA.

[kenish]

The land abuts the Yuma US Army Proving Ground where they blow s*** up every day, so it is not exactly a scenic paradise.

 

LOL!! Once I toured the historic Yuma Territorial Prison. It was infamous and dreaded among outlaws of the era (late 1800's to early 1900's). The ranger talked about an inmate who was being hanged. They took him to the top of the hill to the gallows. He was smiling as they put the noose around his neck. The guards asked why he was smiling and he said "You have to go back down the hill to that hellhole, I don't !" Possibly apocryphal, but probably true for Yuma before A/C made it livable in the summer.

[Old Salty Dog]

Just today booked our March flights from Rochester to FLL. I've watched fares gradually increase in the last two weeks, and it has gone from about $700 to over $1000 rt for 2 of us. Cheaper fares were available for some times that meant getting to the airport in the middle of the night, or at times that didn't work post cruise. Fares are heading higher, and I didn't even factor in the extra $100 for our 2 checked bags each way.