Any advice given these circumstances?

[needabreakcanada]

Having a bit of dilemma. We booked this cruise with the intention of using our aeroplan points for the flights. Have been saving them for quite a few years.

 

Long story short - 20 flights came up for our intended day before flight on February 8th. Sure out of toronto fly to Ottawa sit for 12 hours, then fly to Montreal and have to stay overnight. Then following day (now +1 day into February 9th day of cruise) flights don't arrive in San Juan until 3:30pm!

 

All the flights are gone already (not that we could have booked any of those) and now I am waiting for the airline partners to list theirs (US Air and United) sometime this month.

 

This is for our 30th wedding anniversary and we saved and saved our points to do it. Hubby is not thrilled as the card to collect points costs us $120 a year.

 

Apparently Air Canada and Aeroplan are no longer part of same company and Aeroplan is having to chase them to honor contracts.

 

What to do any suggestions? Did I miss something?

 

Thanks,

[cruising cockroach]

Aeroplan and Air Canada have been separate entities for a very long time.

 

These flights are not the best use of miles (not that any thing Aeroplan has is anyway).

[Gardyloo]

It seems you think that all the award seats that will ever be listed are listed on the first day you can book the flight, and that only early birds get worms.

 

Not so - mileage redemption seats are released into inventory on a rolling basis, and often not until much later in the booking cycle (330-360 days depending on the airline.) The airlines want to see how the flights are doing in terms of ticket sales (for money) and are also very sensitive to things like fuel prices and other costs - they don't want to sell seats at a loss, or let mileage redeemers get seats that might otherwise be sold. The airlines use very sophisticated "yield management" computer systems to allocate seats to award vs. all sorts of purchase-for-cash categories, and unless you're a professor at Hogwarts you don't have a chance of understanding these algorithms.

 

So chill and don't assume you'll get aced out of seats. Partner seats for the second week of February 2014 will come out in a few days, but if the week prior (e.g. Feb. 1/2) is any indication, there will be plenty of mileage seats (on US Airways) when they do.

 

Also look at business class redemption - lots of space (the prior week) in the pointy end, with good connecting times.

 

Aeroplan was sold off during AC's bankruptcy. At the time the frequent flyer program was worth more than the rest of the airline.

[needabreakcanada]

Thanks for the info. At least a ray of hope. And yes I thought what stock they had went on the first release date.

 

I know that US air and United will come online soon so I will be watching. We are hoping for economy class - the business eats up way to many points. I can even put up with stop overs in order to get there - but nothing ridiculous as an overnight where we have to spend money on hotel.

 

I feel better now. Was thinking I was going to have to cancel the cruise right now. Guess I can hang on until November when the deadline is. Hopefully will have flights long before that.

 

Doesn't even have to be direct.

 

Thanks again all,

[needabreakcanada]

"and often not until much later in the booking cycle (330-360 days depending on the airline.) "

 

Do you mean 33 - 360 days prior to the date I am looking at OR 5 - 10 days before the day I am looking at?

 

I know they go buy your return date - so Air Can is 365 which has passed (Feb 16 return date)

 

So by 330 - 360 do you mean I should look anywhere between March 18 - April - 17 approx. for initial release of US partners?

 

Sorry it is very confusing.

 

Thanks

[Gardyloo]

"and often not until much later in the booking cycle (330-360 days depending on the airline.) "

 

Do you mean 33 - 360 days prior to the date I am looking at OR 5 - 10 days before the day I am looking at?

 

I know they go buy your return date - so Air Can is 365 which has passed (Feb 16 return date)

 

So by 330 - 360 do you mean I should look anywhere between March 18 - April - 17 approx. for initial release of US partners?

 

Sorry it is very confusing.

 

Thanks

Flights are made available for sale by the airlines from 11 to 12 months before the flight date - 330 days is the most common "opening."

 

So right now you can't buy a seat - for money or miles - after around Feb. 3, 2014. A week from now Feb. 10 will be available, etc.

 

All the seats on the plane will be available for sale on that T-330 day. Seats that you could buy with one set of rules - advance purchase limits, length of stay limits, refund or change provisions, and many other factors - will also be available for sale without all those restrictions, or with less stringent restrictions. (The fewer restrictions, the higher the cost if you buy it today.) The inventory of open/unsold seats is broken up into so-called "fare buckets" and the airline's computers will assign no more than X seats into a very restricted (hence lower cost) bucket, and when X seats are sold, the next people will pay a slightly different (typically higher) fare until Y seats have sold in the next "bucket," and so on until the only seats left are full-fare walk-up seats, often sold to people who didn't know they had to travel someplace until the last minute.

 

Those same computers are constantly measuring the sales rate of seats in various buckets (upgradeable fares, maybe, or fares that earn more perks for frequent flyers, whatever) and also monitor how competitors are pricing their seats on the same routes, or what the price of fuel in August will be, and dozens (hundreds?) of other factors. They will constantly adjust the relative weights given to any one bucket, hence the prices, depending on their computations. They do this constantly, sometimes adjusting the available seat mix several times a day.

 

Award seats are also held back or released on the same basis. The computers determine that "we can afford to put some seats into award inventory" for this date or that flight, because they've predicted that there won't be enough takers who will pay money to fill the plane, so the award seats can be released. (Remember the miles in your account comprise a "contingent liability" to the airline in accounting terms, so letting you redeem them helps their bottom line.)

 

So one day you'll see no award seats on a given flight, and the next day you might. What's happened in the meantime is that the yield management computers have decided that they can live with X number of award seats on that flight. The next day sales may pick up, so they'll say, "enough award seats for now, let's look at the picture again in X days/weeks/hours."

 

What that means to the traveler is that you simply have to monitor the availability constantly, because that's what the airline computers are doing.

 

For example, 329 days ago you probably wouldn't have seen any award seats open for tomorrow's flights between Toronto and San Juan. The computers didn't know how well those flights would sell to cash customers.

 

Tonight, however, if you want to redeem miles to get from Toronto to SJU for tomorrow's flights, or for Wednesday's, there are umpteen award seats available on Air Canada, US Airways, or United, with connections in Newark or Philly or Charlotte or... The computers now know that the flights aren't going to sell out, so they're opening the floodgates for mileage redeemers.

 

That's a risky game to play for cruise passengers who have a drop-dead deadline, so what you need to do is monitor the situation and be ready to book seats when they DO come open, at any time between now and next February. They probably will, but you need to stay on top of it. There's no free lunch.

[needabreakcanada]

You obviously must be in the business to understand it all in such depth.

 

I appreciate the information and understand it alot better now.

 

Thank you.

[kenish]

You may not have "missed out" on award seats on certain flights, they may have never existed in the first place. Flights on popular routes, dates, and times sell out no problem and as Gardyloo explained, the airline would rather fill a seat with a paid fare before they release it to reward inventory. But, keep checking.

 

Another reason additional reward seats open up later is because very frequent fliers (the airlines' best customers) complained they couldn't get award seats unless they reserved far in advance. But many "road warriors" are unable to plan that far ahead. Some airlines responded by releasing seats later on, though they are often at higher redemption levels.

 

February is typically a very slow season for the airlines, which improves your chances of award seats opening up. But I bet northbound will be easier than southbound! :)

 

FYI, you may have heard US Airways is buying American. US Airways is expected to switch from Star Alliance to Oneworld. There will be a long transition period. If you find award seats on US Airways through Aeroplan, they will be honored. That said, US Airways is one of the stingiest with award inventory.

[waterbug123]

You obviously must be in the business to understand it all in such depth.

 

I appreciate the information and understand it alot better now.

 

Thank you.

 

While the computer algorithms are extremely complex, the basic concept is very simple: economics 101, or supply and demand. If a lot of people want to buy a ticket to city X, the airline doesn't need to give away seats for free (i.e. miles seats). As with anything else, as supply and demand change, the price changes. In the case of airlines, this may be actual price changes, or perceived price changes, in which the price of the actual fare buckets don't change; what changes is fare buckets that are offered for sale. ("Demand is high, so let's take the T fares ($200) and put them on a shelf in the back room for a while, and put out the M fares ($600) and see if we can sell those instead." In that case, technically the price hasn't changed; T fares are still $200 and M fares are still $600, it's just that the airline is not selling the T fares today.

[calliopecruiser]

These flights are not the best use of miles (not that any thing Aeroplan has is anyway).

 

Actually, Aeroplan is great value for business (first) class seats. I have gone to and from Europe twice in business (first) class seats, and will be returning from Europe after my transatlantic the same way, all using Aeroplan. Even paying taxes and fees, it's a great deal. Given that AC is the best NA airline (IMO), I'm happy to continue to use them for this.

[ducklite]

I'd also be looking at flights out of BUF on partners. It's only a couple hours drive and would potentially open a lot of flight options for you.

[FlyerTalker]

A couple of comments:

Having a bit of dilemma. We booked this cruise with the intention of using our aeroplan points for the flights.

I hope you booked the cruise with the realization that you may very well not be able to use your Aeroplan points. If not, then you may be seriously disappointed if nothing is available.

This is for our 30th wedding anniversary and we saved and saved our points to do it.

Let me give you the hard and fast reality. Saving airline miles in the hopes of using them for a specific route on a specific date is often a losing proposition. FF miles are wonderful if, and only if, you are flexible in how you choose to redeem them. If you absolutely have to go to a particular destination on a particular date, chasing miles is not the answer. Expecting to be able to use miles for a special trip on a singular date - well, you may get lucky. Or not.

Hubby is not thrilled as the card to collect points costs us $120 a year.

Has Hubby crunched the numbers? If you use a two-cent metric, you need to earn at least 24,000 points per year just to break even. If you are earning less, then you are far better with some other card. And if you are earning the 24,000+, then you are ahead of the game WHEN you eventually redeem. Which gets back to the prior comment -- miles are a great "currency" if you have the flexibility to use them effectively. If you were earning miles solely to use them for one designated trip (and a highly restricted trip at that), then you were setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

Time to be flexible. Look at alternative airports and alternative dates. Keep on top of availability. Invest in search tools such as KVS and ExpertFlyer to look for availability. Accept that you may need routings that are out of the norm. Ask yourself if you are willing to travel separately if only one seat is available on particular routings. (Mrs FT and I do this regularly if we can't get two seats at a time - after 30 years, you can spend a few hours apart, right? :))

 

You are not screwed. You are in a difficult spot because of the need to fly to a specific city in a very limited range of dates. Accept that and work to find a solution.

[Zach1213]

Let me give you the hard and fast reality. Saving airline miles in the hopes of using them for a specific route on a specific date is often a losing proposition.

 

I definitely agree with this disappointment. Back in the day, it was much easier to save miles for a specific occasion. These days, it's unfortunately not. What I started to do was just save and save my miles for something "big" and "special", with occasional things in between (taking my mother to Turkey, taking my fiance on a cruise, things like that).

 

When it came time to plan a honeymoon, much of it depended on where we could get with miles. If we could only get to the Caribbean, so be it. If there was availability to do something bigger, we'll do it. Basically, go as big as the airline will allow me to do with miles, and be very flexible on the dates to do so.

 

As a result, we had few problems getting first class to Thailand, but even 315 or so days out from departure, we had to move our dates around slightly to get something close to what we wanted (and even then, not perfect - I wanted Cathay Pacific there and back, and we ended up with JAL/AA back). So, going in to a special occasion saying "we have tons of miles, we're going to use them" can often result in disappointment. Which, ya know, is a bummer ;)

[Northshorecruisers]

You might want to check flights on Southwest Airlines/Airtran, but I don't think they will post them until about 6 months out.

 

If you drive to Buffalo, you'd be able to get a Southwest/Airtran flight cheap. And, as of now, you can check 2 bags for free for each person. You would probably have to change planes in Atlanta, but usually it's a short wait and just a couple of gates away.

 

Nice to see someone from Mississauga posting on the boards. I grew up there (Clarkson area).

[kenish]

OP- Another tip...I'm not sure how the Aeroplan website works. It may or may not show award seat availability on USAirways, United, or other possible partner airlines. If it does not, sign up for the partner airline mileage programs. Then you get full visibility into award seats on the partners instead of having to call Air Canada repeatedly to check.

 

Again, I know very little about Aeroplan. With American AAdvantage for example, if a partner airline website shows award seat availability on their own flights, it's almost always available as an AAdvantage award. There's no guarantee of that but at least you aren't 100% in the dark. Someone with deeper Aeroplan experience can comment or correct this.

[kenish]

continued...something went wrong with my browser!

 

As others state, time to think "out of the box" on travel dates, airports, and routings. Of the 3 Star Alliance airlines flying to SJU, United has the most flights and routes (though not a lot) with USAirways and Air Canada a pretty distant second and third. American and JetBlue have the most flights but are not Star Alliance (just to help in your planning). Feb 6 (Thurs) should be in less demand than 7-9...and waiting a day or two after you return to SJU may help since there won't be thousands of others trying to get from the ship to the next flight out. Consider connecting points like CLT, IAH, and PHL.

 

If push comes to shove, you may have to fly on award miles to a "mainland" city (such as MIA), then buy a roundtrip ticket on AA or JetBlue to SJU. Just allow *plenty* (and I mean plenty) of time to transfer between the separately ticketed flights. You have to claim your luggage and check in for the next flight as if you arrived at the airport by ground, and if you fail to show up for the flight down to SJU for any reason, your ticket including the return back from SJU will be cancelled.

 

Hope this helps.

[needabreakcanada]

I had been checking Buffalo but as US flights have 330 day reveal according to AC they will be the end of this month - if the computer says so!

 

I know realize the truth of the frustration we are experiencing is due to putting our eggs all in one basket. Thanks for that tip - will keep it in mind for more flexibility later on. Yes I am pretty sure we are in 24000 plus a year so I will inform hubby he can relax lol.

 

Ok now for the outside the box portion of this discussion. I just realized that we can get 2 - $500 expedia cruise certificates to put toward the cruise using aeroplan points.

 

Here is the breakdown:

 

133,000 pts gets us $1000 total expedia cruise ship certificates (but must be ordered 3 months before final payment date approx. November)

 

80,000 (economy) total points will get us flights but then we will have to pay taxes & fees (out of toronto).

 

So which option would make more sense financially and point wise?

 

I have until August I figure to make a decision for certificates and to try and find flights either with points or paying.

 

Suggestions/ opinions??? Thanks

[Budget Queen]

I had been checking Buffalo but as US flights have 330 day reveal according to AC they will be the end of this month - if the computer says so!

 

I know realize the truth of the frustration we are experiencing is due to putting our eggs all in one basket. Thanks for that tip - will keep it in mind for more flexibility later on. Yes I am pretty sure we are in 24000 plus a year so I will inform hubby he can relax lol.

 

Ok now for the outside the box portion of this discussion. I just realized that we can get 2 - $500 expedia cruise certificates to put toward the cruise using aeroplan points.

 

Here is the breakdown:

 

133,000 pts gets us $1000 total expedia cruise ship certificates (but must be ordered 3 months before final payment date approx. November)

 

80,000 (economy) total points will get us flights but then we will have to pay taxes & fees (out of toronto).

 

So which option would make more sense financially and point wise?

 

I have until August I figure to make a decision for certificates and to try and find flights either with points or paying.

 

Suggestions/ opinions??? Thanks

 

Would purchasing flights be over $1000?

 

If you are close to the 24000 point range per year- you do realize, that you just purchased all these points. The benefit would be, with a signficant amount of points in excess- eg another 24000 (48000 total) is worth only about $120 "credit".

[cruising cockroach]

Actually, Aeroplan is great value for business (first) class seats. I have gone to and from Europe twice in business (first) class seats, and will be returning from Europe after my transatlantic the same way, all using Aeroplan. Even paying taxes and fees, it's a great deal. Given that AC is the best NA airline (IMO), I'm happy to continue to use them for this.

 

Agreed, but not as good as they used to be given YQ (fuel sur)charges that Aeroplan charges. I also think the OP wants to use them for essentially North America travel where there is little value, especially in economy class.

[needabreakcanada]

I have no idea just how much over the 24,000 we are.

 

Pricing flights for next February are currently high as there is little supply right now.

 

Based on what flights I did see on aeroplan using september flight information 80,0000 pts plus $244.72 in taxes in fees, actual flights are $966 total without taxes and fees.

 

hmmm?????

[cruising cockroach]

 

Here is the breakdown:

 

133,000 pts gets us $1000 total expedia cruise ship certificates (but must be ordered 3 months before final payment date approx. November)

 

80,000 (economy) total points will get us flights but then we will have to pay taxes & fees (out of toronto).

 

So which option would make more sense financially and point wise?

 

I have until August I figure to make a decision for certificates and to try and find flights either with points or paying.

 

Suggestions/ opinions??? Thanks

 

You'll have to see what the cost of buying the air tickets are vs redeeming them. Looks like they're worth at least 1.3 cents a mile for cruise certificates.

 

The fuel surcharges that AC charges often makes redemption as expensive as buying tickets outright, even before you account for the value of the miles (and value of foregone miles earned).

[needabreakcanada]

How do you figure out what your points are worth in monetary terms?

 

Any formulas that may help me put the two different scenarios into perspective would be appreciated.

 

Math is not my main gig.

 

Thanks

[calliopecruiser]

I also think the OP wants to use them for essentially North America travel where there is little value, especially in economy class.

 

Yes, I pay directly for those, and use the points towards my next European flight ;)

[Gardyloo]

I have no idea just how much over the 24,000 we are.

 

Pricing flights for next February are currently high as there is little supply right now.

 

Based on what flights I did see on aeroplan using september flight information 80,0000 pts plus $244.72 in taxes in fees, actual flights are $966 total without taxes and fees.

 

hmmm?????

Using other airlines besides AC, I'm seeing many round trips YYZ-SJU in January 2014 in the $450-$530 range all in, meaning all taxes and fees.

(Go to http://matrix.itasoftware.com/ and use their 30-day low price sorting function.) I doubt if February prices will be very different; we'll know in a few days.

 

At that price, IMO you'd be foolish to use 80,000 points plus $245 in taxes and fees. That reduces the value of your miles to barely a penny per mile. You probably paid more for them than that - through annual credit card fees if nothing else.

 

In my view one should treat miles like money. How much will they buy? If you redeem 40,000 miles for a ticket that you could buy for $400, that's one cent per mile. If you redeem 60,000 miles for a business-class ticket that would cost $2000, then the value is over 3c per mile. Giving the cruise line 133,000 points for a savings of $1000 is less than a penny. Robbery.

 

This is not rocket science, this is money management.

[needabreakcanada]

Those are good flight prices - but probably in US funds which is lower than Canadian prices by about 20 - $30 pp.

 

Based on your argument - we should not use 133,000 for $1000 cruise certificate; but you also stated that based on 80,000 pts plus approx $250 taxes and fees (which was for both by the way) that a $450 - $530 flight would not be worth it either.....

 

So just when is it worth it never? We have to use the points sometime.

 

Is there a better use of the points? We really don't want to have to financially fund this whole trip and where looking for ways to lower the cost.

 

Just like trying to find flights for a specific trip there may never be a perfect case scenario for using the points - agreed?

 

Thanks,