Sooo, anyone ever cruise during an El Nino year?

[dreday3]

Today on the news, they mentioned the strong chance that this winter we will see the strongest El Nino yet - hopefully bringing rain to California.

 

So this being our first cruise and we travel first week of December, does anyone know if this typically means more rain for an Eatern Caribbean route? I read it creates a strong wind shear, which lessen the chances of a hurricane, but does it increase wet, windy, choppy water weather?

 

Just curious, I also wish I didn't watch the news today! :p

 

 

I realize no one can predict weather, it can rain/be sunny, yada yada yada, but I'm just wondering if anyone knows about El Nino effects. :)

[Nitemare]

I'm going to bet the answer is "yes"

[dreday3]

I'm going to bet the answer is "yes"

 

Yes - more rain than usual?

 

Yes - people have cruised during an El Nino year? Probably, that's why I'm asking. Although every year is not an El Nino year.

[marshhawk]

Usually during an El Nino year, the east coast has a milder winter-so I am thinking that the chance of hurricanes is actually less than a non el nino year.

 

El Nino was last strong in 98. Per NOAA, so you need to find out who cruised in 1998.

Edited August 13, 2015 by marshhawk

[dreday3]

Usually during an El Nino year, the east coast has a milder winter-so I am thinking that the chance of hurricanes is actually less than a non el nino year.

 

El Nino was last strong in 98. Per NOAA, so you need to find out who cruised in 1998.

 

:D Thanks!

[navybankerteacher]

"El Nino" is called that because it is an unusually warm water pattern in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of South America first noticeable around December - the time of the traditional birth of Jesus - El Niño. It's primary effects (aside from a bountiful anchovy catch) is heavier than normal rainfall along the west coasts of North and South America - and, supposedly, a stronger than usual Atlantic hurricane season the following year. Meaning that the Caribbean might see more hurricane action in late 2016 (as happened in 1999 after the 1998 El Niño).

 

There is no reason to think that there will be any effect in the Caribbean in December of this year of this year's El Niño.

[dreday3]

"El Nino" is called that because it is an unusually warm water pattern in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of South America first noticeable around December - the time of the traditional birth of Jesus - El Niño. It's primary effects (aside from a bountiful anchovy catch) is heavier than normal rainfall along the west coasts of North and South America - and, supposedly, a stronger than usual Atlantic hurricane season the following year. Meaning that the Caribbean might see more hurricane action in late 2016 (as happened in 1999 after the 1998 El Niño).

 

There is no reason to think that there will be any effect in the Caribbean in December of this year of this year's El Niño.

 

thanks!

 

I'm just a bit nervous about cruising in general, so when I hear of potential weather makers, my best line of defense is to inform myself about the topic the best I can - then I usually calm myself down. :p :D

Edited August 13, 2015 by dreday3

[Sixtytwo]

dreday3, look at it this way, in my memory which is a long time, I can not remember a single cruise ship ever being destroyed, capsized, or passengers lost due to a hurricane in the Caribbean! The odds are pretty good you can safely cruise during the hurricane season and not have to worry about becoming a statistic! :eek::D

[Sandy Sails]

Less hurricanes in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific, so today's article says.

Living the Great Pacific Northwest, we are feeling the effects of El Nino just like everybody else. We're in a drought that is expected to last through winter 2016.

I had always thought that meant that the East Coast would get more severe winter weather (just like they did this past winter) and the West Coast would get a dryer/warmer winter. Hope I'm wrong about the East Coast! But this past year was also an El Nino year.

This El Nino is expected to be alot stronger than the most recent "strongest El Nino on record" in 1997/1998. Look out!

[Hlitner]

There is one certainty when it comes to the expert climatologists, meteorologists, climate change freaks, etc. They are usually wrong! When we have a lot of hurricanes it is because of "climate change." When we have no hurricanes it is because of "climate change." When it rains it is because of "El Nino" and when there is a drought it is because of "El Nino."

 

And no, we are not denying that El Nino does occur. But the weather predictions based on El Nino are usually wrong. In fact, the weather forecasters are often wrong! Wouldn't everyone want to have a job where you could be wrong half the time and still be considered an expert?

 

So, do not worry about "El Nino" and just do whatever feels right. If the weather is good you can laugh about all the naysayers. And if the weather is awful you can say "they were right."

 

One can go back to the mid-70s when all the "climate freaks" were warning us about the coming "ice age." This even made the cover of Time! Many of those same folks a now telling us about all the global warming (which happened during their "ice age.") I suspect that in 20 years they will be blaming us for global cooling and falling sea levels. On a recent HAL cruise we had a fantastic lecturer who was a world class scientist and astronomer. He drew standing room crowds (in the large theater) at his lectures. When asked about all these climate predictions he simply responded that the only way most scientists can get big grants is to go along with crowd! So if you apply for a grant and say you are going to support Global Warming you will get money. But if you deny the current scientific "fad" nobody will give you a grant. Enough said.

 

Hank

Edited August 13, 2015 by Hlitner

[Daveintb]

Mr Hank couldn't be more correct !

[cb at sea]

You understand that this won't be the 1st El Nino...nor will it be the last! It's the way the jet stream moves...that's all. It's not a "Sharknado" or something like in a movie!

[SPacificbound]

The most important thing to remember is the captain is going to keep his ship, crew, and passengers safe. If there happened to be a hurricane, when you just so happened to be on the ship, the route and your ports might be changed, but you will be safe.

[dreday3]

You understand that this won't be the 1st El Nino...nor will it be the last! It's the way the jet stream moves...that's all. It's not a "Sharknado" or something like in a movie!

 

I see you have 68000 posts, i hope I'm your first el nino! :p

 

Is this really a strange question? El Nino is a real weather phenomenon and this coming one is supposed to be the strongest since 1997. It does cause issues of drought or massive flooding and I was just asking if anyone knew how it had effected the Caribbean in the past.

 

I'm not cancelling, life goes on, roll with the punches, yes I get that.

 

 

This board is called ask a cruise question, so I did.:D

 

Thanks everyone for answering, I appreciate it and will put it out of my mind)

Edited August 14, 2015 by dreday3

[sail7seas]

Usually during an El Nino year, the east coast has a milder winter-so I am thinking that the chance of hurricanes is actually less than a non el nino year.

 

El Nino was last strong in 98. Per NOAA, so you need to find out who cruised in 1998.

 

OP is sailing in December which is after hurricane season in the Atlantic.

 

[Cruisin' Chick]

Less hurricanes in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific, so today's article says.

Living the Great Pacific Northwest, we are feeling the effects of El Nino just like everybody else. We're in a drought that is expected to last through winter 2016.

I had always thought that meant that the East Coast would get more severe winter weather (just like they did this past winter) and the West Coast would get a dryer/warmer winter. Hope I'm wrong about the East Coast! But this past year was also an El Nino year.

This El Nino is expected to be alot stronger than the most recent "strongest El Nino on record" in 1997/1998. Look out!

 

 

Actually (at least for Southern California) -- but don't quote me on this -- is that "La Nina" (insert a tilde there) years mean drought conditions and "El Nino" years mean very wet weather here. This morning the expert interviewed on the morning news here said that the most severe El Nino condition in recent history was forecasted in August 1997 (I probably didn't pay much attention as my daughter was born that month and I was going through the new mom fog) and the rainy season started in the late fall of 1997.

 

We don't need a El Nino condition to have a lot of rain. Back in December 2010, we started a cruise from San Pedro during a week of rain. But I don't remember the weather for other parts of the country. I do remember that London had a massive snowstorm....and many of the passengers on our cruise never made it on board as they were coming from the UK. The Brits I did meet on the ship all came to the US days ahead of the cruise or flew out of Paris instead.

 

I wouldn't necessarily worry about getting caught in a hurricane in the middle of the Caribbean as the captain will be getting weather reports, and if it looks like there's a hurricane forming in the Western Caribbean, all scheduled sailings will be switched to the Eastern Caribbean. The cruise line won't want to lose a ship.

 

A bigger concern for when the weather is bad is traveling to your embarkation port. It's always best to get there at least a day ahead of time, but when there's the possibility of bad weather, it may be smarter to get there even sooner.

[MandD]

Today on the news, they mentioned the strong chance that this winter we will see the strongest El Nino yet - hopefully bringing rain to California.

 

So this being our first cruise and we travel first week of December, does anyone know if this typically means more rain for an Eatern Caribbean route?

 

No, means more rain for west coast, not east coast.

 

I read it creates a strong wind shear, which lessen the chances of a hurricane,

 

Chances of a hurricane the last 2 days of hurricane season (Nov. 29 & 30) are very low and December is after hurricane season.

 

but does it increase wet, windy, choppy water weather?Again, on the west coast in the Pacific Ocean, not the east coast.

 

Just curious, I also wish I didn't watch the news today! :p

And remember, the media tends to overstate and sensationalize the negatives and ignore the positives.

 

I realize no one can predict weather, it can rain/be sunny, yada yada yada, but I'm just wondering if anyone knows about El Nino effects. :)

 

Remember, there is no other occupation where you can be wrong so often and still keep your job.

[Hlitner]

The most important thing to remember is the captain is going to keep his ship, crew, and passengers safe. If there happened to be a hurricane, when you just so happened to be on the ship, the route and your ports might be changed, but you will be safe.

 

You think? Aug 18, 1991, and DW, DD and moi set forth on the Celebrity Meridian for a 7 day Bermuda cruise from NYC. There was a hurricane (Hurricane Bob) coming up the East Coast, but our Captain made an announcement that this was not an issue because we would not be within 200 miles of the outer-most edge of this storm. Less then 12 hours later (in the early morning of Aug 19) we ran smack into the hurricane with its 100+ knot winds, 50 foot seas, etc. Our ship had minimal damage but the Nordic Prince (also caught in the hurricane) suffered some major damage including a large dent in her bow. Yes, we were kept safe but even our Greek Captain (who did a fantastic job) later admitted he was not very happy with the weather forecasters. These are probably the forecasters who now are in very senior positions in NOAA. The could not get a 12 hour forecast right, so now they are forecasting for years in advance :). And like a bunch of fools, many of the doting public listen to these folks. The only thing consistent about forecasting and climatology is that they are consistently wrong!

 

Hank

[Keith1010]

I took a cruise and it did cause one port to be missed and the landing location for another one to change.

Keith

[navybankerteacher]

Any weather prediction more "sophisticated" or for longer term than sticking your hand out the window to see if it is raining right now, is simply an estimate based on previous experiences and knowing what is currently going on upwind of where you happen to be.

 

An unexpected wind shift changes everything: the more into the future a prediction covers, the less it should be taken seriously. We have all experienced one day predictions which have turned out wrong - but trying to figure what will happen in the Caribbean four months from now because past experience has told us to expect warmer water in the eastern Pacific about that time ????????

[dreday3]

Any weather prediction more "sophisticated" or for longer term than sticking your hand out the window to see if it is raining right now, is simply an estimate based on previous experiences and knowing what is currently going on upwind of where you happen to be.

 

An unexpected wind shift changes everything: the more into the future a prediction covers, the less it should be taken seriously. We have all experienced one day predictions which have turned out wrong - but trying to figure what will happen in the Caribbean four months from now because past experience has told us to expect warmer water in the eastern Pacific about that time ????????

 

I read your first answer but thanks for coming back again to point out the foolishness of my questions. Technically, I didn't ask for the future forecast, but rather if anyone had experience from past trips during an El Nino.... :p :D

Edited August 14, 2015 by dreday3

[dreday3]

Remember, there is no other occupation where you can be wrong so often and still keep your job.

 

Thank you for your answers, I appreciate it! :)

[dreday3]

Actually (at least for Southern California) -- but don't quote me on this -- is that "La Nina" (insert a tilde there) years mean drought conditions and "El Nino" years mean very wet weather here. This morning the expert interviewed on the morning news here said that the most severe El Nino condition in recent history was forecasted in August 1997 (I probably didn't pay much attention as my daughter was born that month and I was going through the new mom fog) and the rainy season started in the late fall of 1997.

 

We don't need a El Nino condition to have a lot of rain. Back in December 2010' date=' we started a cruise from San Pedro during a week of rain. But I don't remember the weather for other parts of the country. I do remember that London had a massive snowstorm....and many of the passengers on our cruise never made it on board as they were coming from the UK. The Brits I did meet on the ship all came to the US days ahead of the cruise or flew out of Paris instead.

 

I wouldn't necessarily worry about getting caught in a hurricane in the middle of the Caribbean as the captain will be getting weather reports, and if it looks like there's a hurricane forming in the Western Caribbean, all scheduled sailings will be switched to the Eastern Caribbean. The cruise line won't want to lose a ship.

 

A bigger concern for when the weather is bad is traveling to your embarkation port. It's always best to get there at least a day ahead of time, but when there's the possibility of bad weather, it may be smarter to get there even sooner.[/quote']

 

Thank you!! :)

[Sandy Sails]

Less hurricanes in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific, so today's article says.

 

Living the Great Pacific Northwest, we are feeling the effects of El Nino just like everybody else. We're in a drought that is expected to last through winter 2016.

 

I had always thought that meant that the East Coast would get more severe winter weather (just like they did this past winter) and the West Coast would get a dryer/warmer winter. Hope I'm wrong about the East Coast! But this past year was also an El Nino year.

 

This El Nino is expected to be alot stronger than the most recent "strongest El Nino on record" in 1997/1998. Look out!

 

 

Ah yes - to correct myself: it's the Pacific Northwest that will be experiencing yet another warmer dryer winter. California should be nice and wet this winter.

OP, I guess nobody can really answer your question on what it's like to cruise during an El Nino year, especially one this severe. The good news is that there will be less hurricanes in the Caribbean this season!

[dreday3]

Ah yes - to correct myself: it's the Pacific Northwest that will be experiencing yet another warmer dryer winter. California should be nice and wet this winter.

OP, I guess nobody can really answer your question on what it's like to cruise during an El Nino year, especially one this severe. The good news is that there will be less hurricanes in the Caribbean this season!

 

:D It was a shot in the dark!

Hurricanes were never really my worry, traveling so late in the year. I was just trying to find out if the weather was rainier than normal during the El Nino years.

 

Thanks for taking the time to answer!