Price statistics

[conquesodor]

I've been wondering about the many comments I've seen lately about the cost of a cruise on =X= going up. I recently found a website that is primarily interested in selling you a price tracking service, but will also show you historical price data for each of the mass market lines. (I'm not sure I can link directly to the site, since they are selling a service, but if you google "cruise price drop checking" you should be able to find it.)

 

You can only view average price per day for each of the four major cabin categories: interior, ocean view, balcony, and suite. These averages are going to leave out a lot of variables about ship, itinerary, etc., as well as lump a lot of other options into just 4 basic buckets of data, but this doesn't mean that the trends aren't interesting or valid. In most cases you can view a graph going back to 2010, but the trend line is a little tricky to get a precise read and you have to guess whether the line is on say, $180 or $190 for a given year. With these caveats about averages and imprecision out of the way, I thought I'd share a summary of what I found concerning the average prices per day for balcony cabins on =X= and other major cruise lines since 2010.

 

I don't claim to be an expert on math, statistics, etc., so if there is a glaring problem with my assumptions or conclusions, please be gentle.

 

General comments:

 

I'm focusing on balcony cabins, since they are the most common cabin category. However, the overall trends from one category to another, seem to generally match each other.

 

Prices across all cruise lines have been increasing steadily since 2010, but Celebrity has indeed seen the largest percentage increase in price. :eek:

 

I will note the price for 2010, 2013, and 2016 to give you a sense of the trend, as well as the overall percent change in price from 2010 to 2016. (For Disney, data only goes back to 2012)

 

All prices are average price per day for a balcony class cabin, across the entire fleet.

 

Celebrity

 

2010: $180

2013: $225

2016: $280

Percent change: 43%

 

Princess

 

2010: $225

2013: $225

2016: $250

Percent change: 10.5%

 

NCL

 

2010: $180

2013: $190

2016: $225

Percent change: 22%

 

RCCL

 

2010: $190

2013: $200

2016: $210

Percent change: 10%

 

Carnival

 

2010: $150

2013: $160

2016: $170

Percent change: 12.5%

 

Disney

 

2012: $275

2014: $300

2016: $375

Percent change: 30%

 

Final thoughts:

 

In 2010, Celebrity's average price was lower than Princess and comparable to NCL and RCCL.

 

By 2013, Celebrity's average price was tied with Princess, and now significantly more than RCCL or NCL.

 

In 2016, Celebrity's average price was $30 higher than Princess and was the second most expensive line overall. Only Disney was higher.

 

Three lines: Princess, RCCL, and Carnival, managed to keep their price increases over the last six years to a modest 10%-12%.

 

NCL and Disney saw larger increases of 22% and 30% respectively, while Celebrity's prices rose a whopping 43%.

[Silhouette2017]

Celebrity has risen its prices due to the inclusion of Beverage packages and other perks. If you remove the value of the Beverage packages, you will see that the average price increase is on line with other lines.

[conquesodor]

Celebrity has risen its prices due to the inclusion of Beverage packages and other perks. If you remove the value of the Beverage packages, you will see that the average price increase is on line with other lines.

 

That could be a partial explanation, but don't other cruise lines also frequently offer beverage packages, not to mention other perks? I see ads for NCL offering "free open bar", dining packages, and other perks frequently. Of course, NCL is one of the lines with a higher overall increase in price too. Does Carnival, RCCL and Princess operate differently?

 

It would be interesting to see when perks became common practice for each cruise line and how that corresponds to average price, but I have no idea how to figure that out.

[oneputt18]

I don't know how they come up with $280 per day. We have 2 upcoming Celebrity Cruises, one is $162.50per day, including all 4 perks, in a balcony. The other is $192.50 per day, including 3 perks, in Aqua class.The first cruise is a 10 day Caribbean on Equinox, the second is 14 day Caribbean on the Eclipse.

[Bo1953]

I Am not sure how you arrived at your numbers. You will need to annotate more on this...

 

If it is from the site you cited, it would be interesting to see their sources as well, I can only imagine that the top suites are included in these figures which skew the prices up.

 

Many of us do not book suites so those figures appear out of sorts.. based on what we usually book, the numbers are high vs paid.

 

bon voyage

Edited January 11, 2017 by Bo1953

[conquesodor]

I don't know how they come up with $280 per day. We have 2 upcoming Celebrity Cruises, one is $162.50per day, including all 4 perks, in a balcony. The other is $192.50 per day, including 3 perks, in Aqua class.The first cruise is a 10 day Caribbean on Equinox, the second is 14 day Caribbean on the Eclipse.

 

I can't speak for them or their methodology directly, but they say it's an average price per day. They appear to be tracking the price for every cruise offered by each line and crunching the numbers to get an average price each day. This is for every ship, every itinerary, all year long, so it's only useful from a "big picture" point of view.

 

As long as they are consistent in how they do this, than the trends should still be valid. "Average price" will be influenced upwards by the days that a cruise is listed at full price, but most of us will pay less because we know not to buy unless we get a good deal during a sale or some other promotion, etc. At least, that's how I see it.

[conquesodor]

I Am not sure how you arrived at your numbers. You will need to annotate more on this...

 

If it is from the site you cited, it would be interesting to see their sources as well, I can only imagine that the top suites are included in these figures which skew the prices up.

 

Many of us do not book suites so those figures appear out of sorts.. based on what we usually book, the numbers are high vs paid.

 

bon voyage

 

I looked at their charts and noted the prices from one year to the next. As I stated at the beginning, I'm only looking at the balcony class prices, not suites. From what I can tell, they don't disclose how they get their data, but I can't imagine it would be hard to create scripts that scrape pricing data automatically.

 

I just commented about the price paid vs the average price in a reply to someone else. It's really difficult to pull out one example of a price paid vs the aggregate of all of the prices over a year that are averaged. I'd expect that the average would be higher. What I think we all wish we could see would be the median price paid from one year to the next. An average of the list price over a year would be much higher, which is what (I believe) these numbers represent.

Edited January 11, 2017 by conquesodor

[conquesodor]

According to the FAQ on the site I am referencing, it is run by a single person who is a cruiser and programmer. The site checks each cruise from one to 3 times a day. Therefore, we are talking thousands of data points a day.

[4774Papa]

Celebrity has risen its prices due to the inclusion of Beverage packages and other perks. If you remove the value of the Beverage packages, you will see that the average price increase is on line with other lines.

 

True, but unless you want to cruise in an inside or a guarantee is offered you are stuck with the bundled prices.

 

Of course, TA cruises are still not bundled.

 

 

One cruiser opined that he had heard that if you call X they will give you an unbundled price. Frankly, I doubt that, but perhaps others can reply to that.

[Bo1953]

I think a display by sailing regions would provide better information for a chart like this and for consumers or at least for me and my travel buddies... IMO

 

bon voyage

Edited January 11, 2017 by Bo1953

[blueboro]

Even with beverage package included we can never find a RCCL cruise for less than Celebrity for a similar itinerary.

[sanger727]

I don't disagree with the overall picture displayed. When I book cruises I compare prices across carnival, NCL, royal, and celebrity. Carnival is generally the cheapest and celebrity is usually near the top in price. It doesn't surprise me that two of the top increases are celebrity and NCL since they both started including beverage packages after the 2013 point. It's interesting that the 3 lines that didn't start including the bev package all had right around a 10% increase for those years.

 

 

There are still deals to be had on celebrity, but u def have to look for them. I do wonder though if they are including aqua and concierge in the balcony category, since the other lines don't have a comparable class. That would skew the prices up somewhat.

 

 

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[sanger727]

Even with beverage package included we can never find a RCCL cruise for less than Celebrity for a similar itinerary.

 

 

Agree with this, the RCCL is the only one I find a bit fishy. I've been wanting to try royal fir years but every time we choose a time period and region we want to cruise, the RCCL option is the highest, and with them not including perks just doesn't seem worth it to me.

 

 

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[AtlantaCruiser72]

I think one of the things that skews the Celebrity pricing picture is the much smaller fleet. They have less exposure year round in price sensitive markets, like the Caribbean, than say RCCL/NCL/Carnival. They also do not offer as many short cruise options as those lines do. Another factor that skews the numbers is the markup associated with Concierge and Aqua Class rooms that other lines do not offer, or if a similar offing is available is a much smaller percentage of the total balcony rooms available.

Edited January 11, 2017 by AtlantaCruiser72

[Cuervosar]

First, thanks for putting up the numbers. It's interesting even if it is a bit broad brush as you say.

 

I just need one clarification, are those costs per cabin per day or are they per cabin per person per day?

[conquesodor]

 

There are still deals to be had on celebrity, but u def have to look for them. I do wonder though if they are including aqua and concierge in the balcony category, since the other lines don't have a comparable class. That would skew the prices up somewhat.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

Good point about aqua and concierge being possibly (probably?) being lumped into the balcony class.

[conquesodor]

Agree with this, the RCCL is the only one I find a bit fishy. I've been wanting to try royal fir years but every time we choose a time period and region we want to cruise, the RCCL option is the highest, and with them not including perks just doesn't seem worth it to me.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

I've also noticed that RCCL seems pricey whenever I've comparison shopped. I usually chalked it up to their ships being so "mega" and having so many more bells and whistles than =X= ships do. I imagine that they cost more to operate?

[conquesodor]

First, thanks for putting up the numbers. It's interesting even if it is a bit broad brush as you say.

 

I just need one clarification, are those costs per cabin per day or are they per cabin per person per day?

 

It says the prices are for the cabin per day. I suspect it presumes double occupancy.

 

I also agree (and tried to emphasize earlier) that this is a very broad brush and "big picture" set of data. If anything is interesting or useful, I'd think it's the general trends.

 

I'll try to post the data on the other classes of cabin later.

Edited January 11, 2017 by conquesodor

[Cuervosar]

Just goes to show the value proposition inherent in cruising. Even taking in Celebs $280 per day price, that includes at a minimum the room, food and entertainment for two for $280 per day, plus transportation to somewhere that should at the least be interesting.

 

Every year, inevitably, we sit down to look at taking a trip to Disney World. The way we roll, we would do about a week minimum, in a park affiliated hotel, and then throw in theme park admissions and one of their dining packages. And then we look at the total and say, "frack it, we can go on a cruise for less."

 

Eventually I guess we'll get to Disney, but once again, it's not this year.

[4774Papa]

Even with beverage package included we can never find a RCCL cruise for less than Celebrity for a similar itinerary.

 

We booked an RCI cruise of New Zealand on the Radiance of the Seas in April 6, 2018. It is an 11 day cruise. The cost was about half for a similar balcony cabin on a 10 day NZ Celebrity cruise. This was the case when we booked a few months ago.

 

Of course, with X you get some promos, but those promos for us still make the RCI cruise about $1000 pp cheaper than X.

[caribill]

I've also noticed that RCCL seems pricey whenever I've comparison shopped. I usually chalked it up to their ships being so "mega" and having so many more bells and whistles than =X= ships do. I imagine that they cost more to operate?

 

Actually, on a per passenger basis they cost less to operate.

 

Pricing is higher on their newest (and largest) ships because of the demand for being on those ships. They tell the stockholders that those new ships are able to maintain high pricing even when they are 2-3 years old.