Jump to content
Cruise Critic Community

Hurricane Irma Watch

HallOfPromise
 Share

Recommended Posts

Tony20

Tony20

Posted
Posted
That's encouraging news for so many currently on board as well as those planning to cruise.

 

Agreed. We're driving down from Orlando to get on Harmony Tuesday. We're trying to figure out the timing to avoid the mass returning traffic jam.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cruiseathoning

Cruiseathoning

Posted
Posted

My big concern now is twofold-1. people seem to have evacuated into the storm. 2. Roads are parking lots as attempts to evacuate made them vulnerable in a car, moreso than perhaps staying home depending upon the structure of the home.

 

The weather experts appear to have blown this. Now the west coast is very unprepared. As we see.

 

USE YOUR own best judgment. I am not so confident in media, experts, people with PHD's and so on..

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LMaxwell Great Review Rare

LMaxwell

Posted
Posted
And you are guessing too....the average elevation of Florida is 100 feet above sea level.

 

Except for coastal and southern florida where the average is 6 feet. Miami and Fort Lauderdale regularly see isolated flooding from every day weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MikeBTN

MikeBTN

Posted
Posted
My big concern now is twofold-1. people seem to have evacuated into the storm. 2. Roads are parking lots as attempts to evacuate made them vulnerable in a car, moreso than perhaps staying home depending upon the structure of the home.

 

The weather experts appear to have blown this. Now the west coast is very unprepared. As we see.

 

USE YOUR own best judgment. I am not so confident in media, experts, people with PHD's and so on..

 

NOAA's margin of error forecasting 72 hours out is 150 miles. Forecasting Irma to hit eastern FL and having her end up on the west coast is well within that margin of error.

 

24 hour margin of error is still 50 miles. The big question now is how quickly does she shift north and how strong will she be when she makes US land fall. Some "positive" news for Florida - she slowed and probably hit Cuba a little harder than expected a day or two ago, so it looks like Irma won't be a Cat 5 when she hits the US.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dreadpirate3

dreadpirate3

Posted
Posted
We are listening to local news and following the State site and no word of severe power outages.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

 

It is a prediction of power outages. As I sad in my post.

 

You can see that graphic under the 2 PM update on this page.

 

This is the last time I respond to your posts. You want to argue with everyone? Fine. I'm done with your antics.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BOLTFISH

BOLTFISH

Posted
Posted
My big concern now is twofold-1. people seem to have evacuated into the storm. 2. Roads are parking lots as attempts to evacuate made them vulnerable in a car, moreso than perhaps staying home depending upon the structure of the home.

 

The weather experts appear to have blown this. Now the west coast is very unprepared. As we see.

 

USE YOUR own best judgment. I am not so confident in media, experts, people with PHD's and so on..

 

 

 

I'm 1000's of miles away, and dont watch Florida local mews, but national news has been fair in their reporting as has the FL Governor.

 

My understanding has been that all of Florida is in the path of this monster! The Gov using what is at his disposal from weather experts has really done a great job indicating that a western impact was real.

 

The weather smarties can only make best guesses based on likeliness. These spaghetti models which have become so popular all agreed that a western and or eastern coastal hit were likely and have been stating for the past few days that we wont really know until it makes its turn north from Cuba.

 

Not sure saying they got it wrong is fair and i'm also not sure what better option we have if they indeed blew it!

 

This being said, I will add that Miami (being Miami) did get the majority of the "what if" coverage! At times it was as if there wasn't any other cities in Southern FL potentially impacted!

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tony20

Tony20

Posted
Posted
Tony20 I don't know how you are going to drive down from Orlando on MON, when they are calling for a hurricane there.

 

https://www.windy.com/28.922/-81.694?2017-09-11-18,28.033,-96.899,5,m:etnadSZ

 

Please reconsider.

 

I never said Monday. We leave early Tuesday morning. Winds are forecast to be 15 mph then. Storm will be long gone.

 

I'm a pilot. Few people have more respect for weather than we do. Cheers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cruiseathoning

Cruiseathoning

Posted
Posted

No-there is too much of that margin of error garbage. They blew it. By their whole margin of error apparently. A lot of people thought this thing had a westerly pattern. Don't tell me partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain then crow about accuracy or hide behind margin of error.

 

Lives are at stake. If I can't make accurate predictions, I am not picking a horsey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LMaxwell Great Review Rare

LMaxwell

Posted
Posted
No-there is too much of that margin of error garbage. They blew it. By their whole margin of error apparently. A lot of people thought this thing had a westerly pattern. Don't tell me partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain then crow about accuracy or hide behind margin of error.

 

Lives are at stake. If I can't make accurate predictions, I am not picking a horsey.

 

This storm is approximately 400 miles across. We were always told it would blanket the state of FL. How anyone could look at the eye position only and decide they were safe on west coast is mind boggling to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MikeBTN

MikeBTN

Posted
Posted
No-there is too much of that margin of error garbage. They blew it. By their whole margin of error apparently. A lot of people thought this thing had a westerly pattern. Don't tell me partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of rain then crow about accuracy or hide behind margin of error.

 

Lives are at stake. If I can't make accurate predictions, I am not picking a horsey.

 

Apparently I wasn't clear - the average prediction 72 hours out has been off by 150 miles this year. That's significantly better than we were at predicting hurricanes a decade ago.

 

Not sure what your beef is, besides just trolling. Would you rather they just not tell anyone at all?

 

Historical error trends: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cruiseathoning

Cruiseathoning

Posted
Posted

I agree-no area seemed safe. Still, 24 hours ago they are talking Miami, Miami, Miami. Thankfully treasues like Jim Cantore and Mike Seidel were cautioning against assumption. But national media? Pfft.

 

But in practical terms, the lack of concern about Tampa, perhaps the red zone for worst case scenario-left Tampa residents with much less time to prepare. You might have been worried in Naples.

 

But my family in Tampa is caught off guard.

 

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/grey-swan-hurricanes-study Please read.

 

If this plays out, no, margin of error will not soothe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Milwaukee Eight

Milwaukee Eight

Posted
Posted
It is a prediction of power outages. As I sad in my post.

 

 

 

You can see that graphic under the 2 PM update on this page.

 

 

 

This is the last time I respond to your posts. You want to argue with everyone? Fine. I'm done with your antics.

 

 

 

Actually, this is a graphic used on Twitter to warn people of power outages. This graphic is from Matthew. Look at the outage zones.

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

Link to comment
Share on other sites
LMaxwell Great Review Rare

LMaxwell

Posted
Posted
I agree-no area seemed safe. Still, 24 hours ago they are talking Miami, Miami, Miami. Thankfully treasues like Jim Cantore and Mike Seidel were cautioning against assumption. But national media? Pfft.

 

But in practical terms, the lack of concern about Tampa, perhaps the red zone for worst case scenario-left Tampa residents with much less time to prepare. You might have been worried in Naples.

 

But my family in Tampa is caught off guard.

 

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/grey-swan-hurricanes-study Please read.

 

If this plays out, no, margin of error will not soothe.

 

If the track continues how it has been this could be way worse for Tampa than it ever was going to be for Miami. Tampa is just not prepared for a large storm in general. It is their infrastructure, nothing a few more days of notice for residents could have helped.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tony20

Tony20

Posted
Posted (edited)
You think the conditions will be favorable for driving on Tuesday after 120 mph winds across almost the entire state?

 

Ok. No further comment.

 

You sound like a weather terrorist bro. I've lived in Florida all my life. I understand the conditions. If I-95 is passable and the winds are down, we'll go. If not, we won't. Flying an airplane is all about good judgement. I'll apply it here too.

 

There are many tools available to make that judgement. For example, the NHC latest wind probability projections show Ft. Lauderdale at a 5% risk of hurricane force winds through Tuesday. Look it up.

 

And I'd rather get the forecast from the NHC rather than third-party outfits like Windy or Ventusky. They are based on models not forecasts. Models are not forecasts.

 

I watch the data and make decisions.

Edited by Tony20
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cruisinfanatic

cruisinfanatic

Posted
Posted
My big concern now is twofold-1. people seem to have evacuated into the storm. 2. Roads are parking lots as attempts to evacuate made them vulnerable in a car, moreso than perhaps staying home depending upon the structure of the home.

 

The weather experts appear to have blown this. Now the west coast is very unprepared. As we see.

 

USE YOUR own best judgment. I am not so confident in media, experts, people with PHD's and so on..

Then you should never watch the weather. Get a big fat life threatening surprise like what would have happened a few decades ago. It's VERY common knowledge that hurricanes do their own thing and impossible to precisely predict. The weather forecasters certainly didn't blow it. They said from the beginning that the whole state would be impacted. No one had to leave the state. Only get away from the storm serge and into a safe place.

Maybe you should just stop second guessing EVERYTHING!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cruisinfanatic

cruisinfanatic

Posted
Posted
I agree-no area seemed safe. Still, 24 hours ago they are talking Miami, Miami, Miami. Thankfully treasues like Jim Cantore and Mike Seidel were cautioning against assumption. But national media? Pfft.

 

But in practical terms, the lack of concern about Tampa, perhaps the red zone for worst case scenario-left Tampa residents with much less time to prepare. You might have been worried in Naples.

 

But my family in Tampa is caught off guard.

 

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/grey-swan-hurricanes-study Please read.

 

If this plays out, no, margin of error will not soothe.

What happened to the "no further comment" promise?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in



Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Welcome to Cruise Critic
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Cruise Critic News & Features
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • Canadian Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...