CCL stock drops on weak forecast for Q4.

[cabinluvn]

We have never had a problem with adding our CCL OBC with any offer. It is just added to what we already have from wherever

 

 

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[hrhdhd]

We have never had a problem with adding our CCL OBC with any offer. It is just added to what we already have from wherever

 

Right. My post was referring to RCCL's stockholder OBC.

[Aruba]

Actually, "bunkers" are any ship's fuel, whether residual fuel (what you noted), marine diesel fuel, or LNG. The term refers back to the days of coal.

I've heard PA announcements advising people to be extra careful NOT to smoke while the ship "is bunkering"...and until now never understood what that meant.

Thank you.

[Underwatr]

I seem to recall paying a fuel surcharge with Cunard around 2012 or 2013. The cruise contract allows them to add it at any time above a certain crude price level but I think generally they announce it well in advance.

[caribill]

I seem to recall paying a fuel surcharge with Cunard around 2012 or 2013. The cruise contract allows them to add it at any time above a certain crude price level but I think generally they announce it well in advance.

 

There were many upset passengers back then who had paid in full for their cruise and then were hit with the surcharge.

 

The next year the surcharge was dropped, but cruise prices were raised to include the surcharge amounts,

 

For some of the time since then (and also now) the price of crude has been above the trigger point for the surcharge, but almost all cruise lines have not reinstated the surcharge even though they could have.

[Underwatr]

After I posted I read the booking terms to find the fuel surcharge clause and was unable. Perhaps that explains it.

[TiogaCruiser]

Bunker prices were in the $600/ton range back in 2013, and crude prices were $110/bbl (about $770/ton), now crude is $70/bbl ($490/ton) and bunkers are in the $400-450/ton range. So, the cost of bunkers in relation to crude prices has increased. If they didn't use the fuel surcharge back then, they wouldn't do it now. It is just that their predictions of fuel cost used to make their 4th quarter earnings predictions were too low, probably because they were based on the Jan '18 time frame, when bunkers were $350-400/ton. My opinion is that fuel contracts that other cruise lines use, would have smoothed out price increases like those from early '18 to now, as this is rather short term, rather than the larger swing from 2013, and that Carnival saw the essentially downward trend over the last 5 years, and did not anticipate the current upward swing, though fuel prices have been generally rising since bottoming in 2015.

 

My pre-caffeinated head isn’t getting this.:confused: Are “bunkers” in this context the cost of the manufactured fuel product, versus the raw material “crude”?

[chengkp75]

My pre-caffeinated head isn’t getting this.:confused: Are “bunkers” in this context the cost of the manufactured fuel product, versus the raw material “crude”?

 

Yes, in the instances I quoted, "bunkers" refers to IFO380, the most common residual fuel oil used by ships, including cruise ships. The fuel surcharge most commonly mentioned in cruise ship contracts has a trigger that is based on crude oil prices, not bunker fuel price. That is why I was comparing bunker prices to crude prices over two periods. The trigger crude price most commonly used is for WTI (West Texas Intermediate crude) at $75/barrel. So, back in 2013, the crude price was over the trigger, but the cruise lines did not activate the fuel surcharge. My example was to show that there is no direct correlation between bunker prices and crude prices (crude prices have dropped more than bunker prices), so that using a crude oil price to trigger a fuel surcharge is not really in the cruise lines' best interests, they should use a bunker fuel price index instead. If you look at the low sulfur marine gas oil (diesel fuel) that is required within the US ECA (200 miles from North American coastline), the disconnect between crude price and MGO price is even more pronounced.