Cruise selling well, or not selling well?

[macandlucy]

I am looking at an Alaska cruise that's about seven weeks away. By my count, there are about 90 available cabins in all categories showing. Some show 15 cabins (so could be 15 or more). Many categories are in Guarantee status.

 

I have no idea how many people have booked sailaway or guarantee cabins, but in my experience, a guarantee gets assigned pretty quickly, thereby taking the cabin out of available inventory (just my observation, obviously not a hard and fast rule). I take this to mean that they place people soon after booking so there will not be a huge 80 cabin assignment a couple of days before sailing. That could happen, but I'm assuming it won't.

 

I started to casually count cabins about two weeks ago, and it appears that they are disappearing at about 17 cabins a week.

 

So, with seven weeks to go and 90 open cabins (from the lowest inside to the swankiest Haven) available to select, would you say my cruise is selling well, selling at an average rate or not selling well?

[smplybcause]

Not necessarily. I booked a cruise 12 days out and we didn't get our assignment until 9 days out. I'm not 100% sure how that effects availability they show online - but GTYs definitely aren't always quickly assigned. I'm sure several are waiting for any move ups from the bid program. 

 

If it's only 90 cabins left, that sailing is pretty close to sold out I would guess. On Bliss that would mean 96% of the cabins are sold. i can't find the cabin count for Jewel, but it's still likely over 90% sold. 

Edited August 12, 2019 by smplybcause

[tallnthensome]

If you haven’t booked yet, why the wait and have the need for concern? Are you looking and waiting for a big price drop? 7 weeks away puts you at the very end of the Alaska sailing season and prices on Alaska sailings are usually much lower on all lines after Labor Day. It’s probably selling on average.

Edited August 12, 2019 by tallnthensome

[macandlucy]

10 minutes ago, smplybcause said:

Not necessarily. I booked a cruise 12 days out and we didn't get our assignment until 9 days out. I'm not 100% sure how that effects availability they show online - but GTYs definitely aren't always quickly assigned. I'm sure several are waiting for any move ups from the bid program. 

 

If it's only 90 cabins left, that sailing is pretty close to sold out I would guess. On Bliss that would mean 96% of the cabins are sold. i can't find the cabin count for Jewel, but it's still likely over 90% sold. 

 

I couldn't find the total cabin count either, but Jade has about 1,200 cabins, so somewhere in there.

 

You say "only 90 cabins" and I was thinking, "whoa, so many cabins left!" (haha).  But yes, that's less than 10%, so I guess it really is close to sold out.  But is it going to sell out? I mean are 180 people going to book a late season cruise to Alaska after final payment?  

 

It got me thinking about the "cruise is selling well" vs. "cruise is not selling well" I see when I am reading posts and articles,  and I wondered how that determination is made.

 

Thanks for the input  🙂

 

[macandlucy]

18 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

If you haven’t booked yet, why the wait and have the need for concern? Are you looking and waiting for a big price drop? 7 weeks away puts you at the very end of the Alaska sailing season and prices on Alaska sailings are usually much lower on all lines after Labor Day. It’s probably selling on average.

 

Why do you need to know why I'm asking a question in the "Ask A Question" section? 😉

 

(Seriously though, the answer is curiosity.) 

 

For all cruises, at some point any cruiseline will make the determination that a cruise "isn't selling well", and so it'll do various things -- lower price, add perqs, add 3/4 sail free, etc. But I realized that I have never read anywhere, even a hint of what that threshold is -- what determines if a cruise is or is not selling well.  I just wondered if anyone had an insight into what that threshold is, broadly speaking.  Thanks for your reply 🙂

 

 

[smplybcause]

Even if it's only 96% of the cabins sold, if there's a lot of cabins above double occupancy the ship's occupancy rate could be a lot closer to 100% which would likely mean less of a fire sale on the remaining cabins because their occupancy rate is already close to what they want. 

 

The whole algorithm is opaque so that's partially why no one can say for sure what that threshold is. Part of it is number of cabins left, but another part is total number of passengers (you often see the free 3 & 4 go away when it's close to sail date). And it also goes based on the larger category inventory as well as the sub category inventory. 

 

My friend has watched it way more than me on cruises we were on or looking for, but I think he always mentions way more than 15 cabins in a category left to think that the prices may be coming down. 

[ThxMomnDad]

Just curious how you can tell how many cabins are left? I'm booked on the Escape in October but can't find where I'd be able to see how many empty cabins there are.

[Budget Queen]

What ship?    

[smplybcause]

1 hour ago, ThxMomnDad said:

Just curious how you can tell how many cabins are left? I'm booked on the Escape in October but can't find where I'd be able to see how many empty cabins there are.

 

If you do a mock booking and the category isn't now GTY it'll show you a list of cabins, but NCL doesn't display more than 15 cabins so if it shows 15 cabins there could be more still available. There's some other online booking agencies that show you all the availability in the category (or even show all sub category options at once) - I think most check it there vs NCL. 

[macandlucy]

1 hour ago, ThxMomnDad said:

Just curious how you can tell how many cabins are left? I'm booked on the Escape in October but can't find where I'd be able to see how many empty cabins there are.

 

I just go to the NCL website and do a mock booking (for every category), just to see which are in guarantee status and which still have cabins to choose from.  

 

On the NCL website, as you progress into your mock booking, you'll get either the Guarantee message or a list of available cabins from which to choose.  I do that for every category , and that tells me what's left,

[macandlucy]

23 minutes ago, Budget Queen said:

What ship?    

 

Jewel

[ThxMomnDad]

Thanks for the info smplybcause & macandlucy! When I originally booked, the NCL website only showed me 10 cabins to choose from (I was booking a midship balcony), so I just assumed it only shows you a maximum of 10. Maybe there really was only 10 of that category left when I booked?

[macandlucy]

2 minutes ago, ThxMomnDad said:

Thanks for the info smplybcause & macandlucy! When I originally booked, the NCL website only showed me 10 cabins to choose from (I was booking a midship balcony), so I just assumed it only shows you a maximum of 10. Maybe there really was only 10 of that category left when I booked?

 

Yes, I think you are right about the 10.  As far as I know, in any category, NCL will show you a maximum of 15 cabins, which could be exactly 15 cabins available or more (but how many more we don't know). But if it shows less than 15, then that's the number that is available to book.  (I think!) 

[don't-use-real-name]

I am on the JEWEL 9/16 the last sailing Seward to Vancouver (5 weeks ?)

Two Vancouver round trips (9/23 & 9/30) before the final cruise of the season

then Repo cruise Vancouver Victoria Astoria San Francisco Los Angeles.

Then returning to Vancouver for a Hawaiian - Tahitian cruise and later

to down under Sydney and Auckland.

 

You must be on one of the Vancouver round trips ?

[macandlucy]

I'm not booked on anything, just looking at the September 23rd sailing, which is a Vancouver round trip sailing.  

 

And as you point out, there's a second rt Van sailing on the Jewel the following week. Part of my curiosity is the number of people who wish to do a sailing like that, end of season.  And there seems to be so much inventory in Alaska this year, with NCL's two mega ships sailing, plus the Jewel sailing. And all the other cruise lines' ships -- it seems like a lot of berths to sell at a less desirable time to cruise.  I'm asking myself, "How are all of these cabins going to sell at this time of year?"

 

But that's just me -- could be a whole bunch of people out there who like the idea of cruising to Alaska when it's a little cooler and aren't too bothered by potentially rainy weather. 

 

But mostly, it's when I read an article or post that talks about a cruise that may not be selling well and I wonder just how we are to know whether that is the case or not. Just curiosity.

[Sauer-kraut]

We were on the second sailing on the Jewel this year.  The price just kept falling, I wish we would have waited as we fly stand-by so no ticketing was necessary.  We booked when it was about $550, dropped to $450 and got down to just under $300 the week before sailing.  Did manage to upgrade from an inside to a port hole at no charge but that was it.

[bssc]

We look at the cruise on the Costco Travel website.  They map cabin availability onto the deck plans.  However, because it must be a batch update system, the numbers are a day behind the NCL site.  And you have to go through each deck.

[Budget Queen]

15 hours ago, Sauer-kraut said:

We were on the second sailing on the Jewel this year.  The price just kept falling, I wish we would have waited as we fly stand-by so no ticketing was necessary.  We booked when it was about $550, dropped to $450 and got down to just under $300 the week before sailing.  Did manage to upgrade from an inside to a port hole at no charge but that was it.

Good grief being nonrev is golden. 😀😀😀😀.    I didn’t pay over $299 this year on the Jewel - solo. With 2 sailings $249.   Double Cruise Next redemptions for the last 3.   5 weeks.   I jumped on the Bliss the week prior.   

 

Do you use your benefits frequently???