Solvency of Cruise Lines

[Pcardad]

I've yet to find a single financial professional who feels there is a substantial likelihood of bankruptcy. Stocks prices are rising. Carnival got their financing and they are out of the woods. NCL and RC will too. I would counsel everyone to discuss this matter with your financial planning people and not seek advice for it here. That's kind of like getting medical advice at your local bar.

[Dolebludger]

Agreed, and I have received advice from our financial advisor. I have no information indicating that cruise line bankruptcy is imminent. But I have received information that it is a possibility. And is a possibility for which we should be prepared. I would call a local bankruptcy attorney, except there are none here. Thus my question.

[bissel]

Wendy, since you’re from Canadaland, perhaps you have been following Pluto. Your attitude tells me you have!  Heads  high, hearts open....

[CBWIR]

1 hour ago, Dolebludger said:

Agreed, and I have received advice from our financial advisor. I have no information indicating that cruise line bankruptcy is imminent. But I have received information that it is a possibility. And is a possibility for which we should be prepared. I would call a local bankruptcy attorney, except there are none here. Thus my question.

In post #491 above, you said NCLH has 0% chance of coming out of  this without filing for bankruptcy. Now it is a possibility. What changed in the fifteen hours between posts?

Why would you call a local attorney if you have no skin in the game?

The price of NCLH stock has more than doubled from its low. I think I'll follow their lead. 

As someone else mentioned, at least no discussion of cramped domestic flights.

[Dolebludger]

It is still my PERSONAL opinion that NCLH will seek (or be forced into) bankruptcy. My financial advisor pants a less grim picture. My reason? I know how much modification of NCL ships will be required to achieve any form of social distancing that will be required. My advisor has never been on one. I have. And the reason I am now saying nothing about the lack of social distancing in airlines and airports is that these conditions don’t currently exist because almost nobody is flying now.

[mrlevin]

4 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

And the reason I am now saying nothing about the lack of social distancing in airlines and airports is that these conditions don’t currently exist because almost nobody is flying now.

 

. . .  and even fewer people are cruising now.

[JMARINER]

4 hours ago, orvil said:

JMariner,

 

To answer your question, I was involved with an airline bankruptcy.  It's been a few years, but as I recollect the credit card companies were first in line in a Chapter 11 because they were vitally necessary to a successful reorganization.  They will be protected before anyone else.  This is why you want to use a credit card and not a debit card, check or cash when you book travel.  It moves you out of the unsecured creditor class and into the 600 pound gorilla class.  .............

If you look back to the Renaissance Cruise line chapter 11 filling in 2001, they didn't reorganize and went under. I don't know if any passengers got any refunds (I don't know that  they didn't either.) I would think that the secured creditors, the banks that have the ship mortgages would be first  in line and I doubt there could be much money left after that for the credit card companies.

 

Maybe one of our other board member know the answer. I agree with you about never using a debit card as they have no protections.

 

To be continued...

 

J

[Pcardad]

NCLH up over 20% today...I think that number speaks for itself.

[JMARINER]

20 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

NCLH up over 20% today...I think that number speaks for itself.

 

In my way of looking at it the stock in now down from its recent 52 week high only -73% as opposed to yesterday being down -78%.

 

And it that regard, to me the number doesn't say much.

 

I guess that  put me in the pessimist camp. I am not rooting for NCLH to fail and I don't think they have done anything wrong. But in the reality of current event,  circumstances certainly seem to be against them.

 

J

[Pcardad]

No worries. That number means a LOT to Wall Street though.

[Travelcat2]

1 hour ago, Dolebludger said:

It is still my PERSONAL opinion that NCLH will seek (or be forced into) bankruptcy. My financial advisor pants a less grim picture. My reason? I know how much modification of NCL ships will be required to achieve any form of social distancing that will be required. My advisor has never been on one. I have. And the reason I am now saying nothing about the lack of social distancing in airlines and airports is that these conditions don’t currently exist because almost nobody is flying now.

 

One  U.S. based airline (not sure missed as I did not hear the first part of the story) will not be filling middle seats in coach and will hand out masks to each passenger.  At this moment, there is no requirement to put them on but it is possible that it will become a requirement.

[greykitty]

Cross post  NCLH furloughs 20% of employees through end of July. 

 

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2020-04-29/norwegian-cruise-line-to-furlough-about-20-of-employees-through-july-31

 

The furloughs affect shoreside U.S. workers and some international offices, a company spokesperson said in an emailed statemen

[rallydave]

5 minutes ago, greykitty said:

Cross post  NCLH furloughs 20% of employees through end of July. 

 

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2020-04-29/norwegian-cruise-line-to-furlough-about-20-of-employees-through-july-31

 

The furloughs affect shoreside U.S. workers and some international offices, a company spokesperson said in an emailed statemen

Sure doesn't look good for refunds or FCC's to be coming soon.  After all this means 40% fewer hours being worked as don't expect OT being approved and with the people who are still working they were cut 20% of their working hours plus this new 20% cut.  Also means no sailings until the soonest being August or perhaps later as can't get everthing up to speed immediately on August 1 even if the furloughed people back to work nor the others working shortened weeks and there will be lots of work in the offices to get the itinerairies set up, provisioning to the ships, air booked, excursions on contract, etc.

 

Unfortunately looks like no cruise ships sailing before the fall??

[Dolebludger]

As for airline usage, from 04/02 to 04/08 the average is that 3200 people go through our little regional airport each year. -but not this one! This year 236 people went through this airport. A friend flew to LA about this time this year. There were all of seven passengers on the plane! Now as far as I know, there are no state or Federal orders that prevent or regulate flying. People just associate flying with crowded situations, and are voluntarily not flying for their health.  This makes me wonder how many people are going to avoid NCL Carnival and RCI cruises for the same reason, regulations or not.  Now, I am not talking about Regent or the like. No crowds, period. I’d take a Regent cruise tomorrow (if there were one) and even fly to it with the airline crowds down. But there aren’t any.

[greykitty]

Now that would be a fun data point.  Are the FCC's being processed in a more timely basis?  Use of FCC's allows a cruise line to say hey, look at the great percentage of people booking future cruises, doesn't it? 

 

The lines weren't  plumping up those FCC offers for no reason in my eyes (even if future fares seemed to more than offset that nice percentage add on to the FCC).

[greykitty]

It's fun (not!) watching requests come into the FAA to allow carriers to drop flights, and not just into the smaller airports.

 

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jetblue-delta-request-flight-suspensions

 

And I've seen stories of the passenger carriers looking into how they might start carrying freight instead.  

 

And air is an essential industry, I think, in most people's minds.

[Dolebludger]

Well, everybody on this forum and thread knows that I hate airlines, so this will come as no surprise.  Because of medical warnings, people are not flying. The airports were overly crowded, and so were the airlines. In airports, people waiting for “rolling delayed” flights had to sit on the floor for lack of seating in waiting areas. On the planes, basic economy was so cramped it was painful to us old people. What ever happened to the ADA?  I hope (if it is up to you) that you do not approve flight cancellations where the applications are not HIGHLY documented. The airlines have been overbooking for years before the pandemic. They have also been canceling flights that were not 100% full, to the extreme inconvenience of booked, paid, and present passengers. The airlines have not been good “corporate citizens” and I’d like them  to suffer a bit, like us passengers have had to.

 

What this have to do with Regent cruises? Well to get to one, Regent has only included basic economy air for legs in North America. I don’t know how anybody who can pay for a Regent cruise would want to fly basic economy for long!  And Regent’s North American American flight legs are not upgradable, not even for cash! 
 

I hope that the Feds impose social distancing rules on airports and airlines. No traveler should be subject to misery, just because they want to fly.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Dolebludger

[LvnCruisin]

I've been watching flights for our cruise in December to Miami (we always book our own), they have now made it so that we can't purchase two seats together in first class. We can book a window on one side and the other will be an aisle on the other side of the plane. We'll wait and see if things blow over before even considering this type of travel. 

[rallydave]

20 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

The airlines have been overbooking for years before the pandemic. They have also been canceling flights that were not 100% full, to the extreme inconvenience of booked, paid, and present passengers. The airlines have not been good “corporate citizens” and I’d like them  to suffer a bit, like us passengers have had to.

Have nothing to do with the airlines however, and sure this will be unpopular but, up to this Pandemic while I agree about reducing and reducing the pitch and size of the seats, the airlines have done a wonderful job in keeping fares extremely low compared to historic costs especially considering how much the cost of new aircraft and fuel has been.  Positive if you go back 20 or more years, the increase, if any in flight costs will have gone up at a much smaller percentage than the Cost of Living, the ost of aircraft or the cost of fuel prior to the latest negative oil cost.

 

As to the canceling of flights that weren't full, that might be from small airports with perhaps regional jets but, for the most part the airline schedules require the aircraft to fly in most cases in order to be in the next city for the next flight.  Have never been a flight cancelled for lack of passengers, and while this was a few years ago have flown on flights myself and when I could fly from our big airport to a small airport closer to home, a flight of perhaps 10 to 15 minuts in the air and less than 40 miles driving, have been on foights with single figure passengers.  Perhaps I have been lucky but, I believe the pries have ramaind extremely great and reasonable, part of holding down the prices of the flights is the making of extras ala carte whee you pay if you use and don't pay if you don't.  YMMV

[rallydave]

7 minutes ago, LvnCruisin said:

I've been watching flights for our cruise in December to Miami (we always book our own), they have now made it so that we can't purchase two seats together in first class. We can book a window on one side and the other will be an aisle on the other side of the plane. We'll wait and see if things blow over before even considering this type of travel. 

They are doing this for social distancing so really doubt this will change anytime soon.  Just like not filling the enter seat in coach.  Think this is a good thing however it has to increase ticket prices as planes with this configuration will not fly full and have to pay the costs or the airlines will go out of business.

[pingpong1]

18 minutes ago, LvnCruisin said:

I've been watching flights for our cruise in December to Miami (we always book our own), they have now made it so that we can't purchase two seats together in first class. We can book a window on one side and the other will be an aisle on the other side of the plane. We'll wait and see if things blow over before even considering this type of travel. 

To me - That's "paradise"!  We only fly FC (and BC overseas).  LIke Rallydave says, that means they''re putting empty seats between you - in FC!  If you want to sit next to your significant "other" - just sit in the aisle seats and "hold hands" across the aisle - once the flight takes off!  Or both of you can move to your respective window seats and "wave" to each other.  That will be super.  Also, makes for more space in the "overhead" storage compartment with fewer passengers in "first".  Look at this as a "positive", rather than a "negative".  😜  BTW - I don't think the attendants will mind if husband/wife/family members move next to each other, once the cabin door closes.  The main thing that will bother me is if the airlines require everyone to wear face masks for an entire 4-8 hour flight (across country or over to Europe).  That would be a "deal breaker" for us!  Do I cut a hole in the face mask so the straw will slip through?  I've never drunk scotch using a straw before!  🙄

[LvnCruisin]

Look at this as a "positive", rather than a "negative". 

 

See I don't see it as a negative, just found it very interesting that in the last 24 hours they came up with this "new" plan.I truly thought they would make it that both sides would be window seats and not a window and an aisle. I'm more interested in what will happen with pricing. At this point there has been no change since January. My husband will absolutely love having his space - lol. I can still drive him crazy from across the aisle.

 

I am very much with you that face masks for a long period of time would be a "deal breaker" 4 hours from Denver to Miami would be too long in my mind. 

[Dolebludger]

Rallydave, You agree with further reduction In economy seating distancing? A pox on you, sir, if this is the case!  The passenger space in economy should always have been illegal, and I hope it is made so now. If we book a Regent cruise (if there are any in the future) to use included air, we would have to endure about four hours of misery before boarding a business/first flight. And if we try to opt out of the misery, we are given only a small amount in credit, compared to if we had booked those miserable flights ourselves. Regent just has to do better for those of us who live in the middle of the USA or Canada. At its prices, it darn well should. And if it doesn’t, and if the Feds fail to mandate distancing on airlines, I suppose it is goodbye to cruising — at least until government comes to its since about common carriers.

[rallydave]

6 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

Rallydave, You agree with further reduction In economy seating distancing? A pox on you, sir, if this is the case!  The passenger space in economy should always have been illegal, and I hope it is made so now. If we book a Regent cruise (if there are any in the future) to use included air, we would have to endure about four hours of misery before boarding a business/first flight. And if we try to opt out of the misery, we are given only a small amount in credit, compared to if we had booked those miserable flights ourselves. Regent just has to do better for those of us who live in the middle of the USA or Canada. At its prices, it darn well should. And if it doesn’t, and if the Feds fail to mandate distancing on airlines, I suppose it is goodbye to cruising — at least until government comes to its since about common carriers.

Just read what I wrote and it came out all wrong about coach seats. Think I was trying to agree with you about the decreasing pitch and smaller seats but came out as for and I am really against the smaller seats and pitch and think blocking center seat will help a little but losing 1/3 of the coach has to increase flight costs by about a third which is a lot but IMHO still less than cost of living and lots of other things. We will pay it either way less room or more cost. 
 

sorry for the confusion Dole. 

[Dolebludger]

Rallydave, I understand. Sometimes posts come out wrong. I just think that if economy is the only way you can fly, it should be healthy and non-painful. And I have noticed that airlines have actually been profiting from making economy so bad. They have raised their prices on business first, which often offers no more than coach used to offer. Those  who think that deregulation has resulted in lower fares must be talking about basic economy. Actually domestic first is about what coach used to be. Sorry, all, but I despise the way our airlines have degraded air travel in the US. I hope that one good thing to come out of this horrible pandemic will be proper distancing requirements on airlines and airports. I have coined a bit of a joke “You are entering an airport. Check your civil rights at the door”. Only, it is not funny. It is just true! I mean, even in domestic first, the flight attendant (used to be a stewardess) comes and tells me what Federal regulations require of ME, with no mention of what they require of tha airline. And sometimes I honestly feel that those people have made up the regs! And they have left out what few regs control conduct by airlines. And now, I hope airlines have more regulations upon them. They certainly deserve it.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Dolebludger