Will There Be Any Cruising At All In 2020?

[david_sobe]

Question to those who think cruising will resume in the next few months.  Crews are stranded and they are trying to get back to their countries over the next month or so.  How can cruising begin without any crew.  Many are still stranded on ships and it could take another month or so to get them off.  

[Corliss]

26 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

Question to those who think cruising will resume in the next few months.  Crews are stranded and they are trying to get back to their countries over the next month or so.  How can cruising begin without any crew.  Many are still stranded on ships and it could take another month or so to get them off.  

 

Both NCL and Carnival have said that they will be putting the majority of their ships into cold layup, but that

"During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew,"

 

The Joy and the Jewel are both currently located off the west coast.  They are both scheduled for Alaska cruises beginning in July.

[vpearlkc]

30 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

Question to those who think cruising will resume in the next few months.  Crews are stranded and they are trying to get back to their countries over the next month or so.  How can cruising begin without any crew.  Many are still stranded on ships and it could take another month or so to get them off.  

 

People who think everything will be back to normal in 2 or 3 months are living in la la land but maybe it's a better place than I've been living, isolating for the last month and half with walking the dog the highlight of my day.

[stormynow]

16 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

Both NCL and Carnival have said that they will be putting the majority of their ships into cold layup, but that

"During the pause in our global fleet cruise operations, certain of our ships will be in warm ship layup where the ship will be manned by a full crew,"

 

The Joy and the Jewel are both currently located off the west coast.  They are both scheduled for Alaska cruises beginning in July.

Not July of 2020.

[Corliss]

25 minutes ago, vpearlkc said:

 

People who think everything will be back to normal in 2 or 3 months are living in la la land but maybe it's a better place than I've been living, isolating for the last month and half with walking the dog the highlight of my day.

 

Who thinks everything will be back to normal in 2 or 3 months?  I think it will take years for the United States to recover from the disaster that long rigid lock downs are doing.  

 

I agree with those who think this was a big mistake.  Closing down the country for a short time in order to allow the health care system to get into position to deal with the pandemic was necessary and that was the original stated goal.  But, that was achieved weeks ago.  Three weeks ago New York (the national covid petri dish) was reporting over 1,000 deaths per day.  They are now down to the 200's daily.  Where do you think they will be eight weeks from now?

 

People make the mistake of extrapolating today into the future.  Covid has peaked worldwide.  Most countries are now on the downside of the "curve."  Quarantining the sick and the vulnerable is good policy.  We will be paying for quarantining an entire nation for years.

 

 https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

[Newleno]

1 hour ago, david_sobe said:

Question to those who think cruising will resume in the next few months.  Crews are stranded and they are trying to get back to their countries over the next month or so.  How can cruising begin without any crew.  Many are still stranded on ships and it could take another month or so to get them off.  

a lot of people in the usa and europe are unemployed right now, so if the ships are in these 2 areas of the world hire them.

[GA Dave]

The press is currently crucifying Georgia for reopening our economy.  We had three deaths yesterday state-wide that were from Covid-19.  Three deaths in a state of 10.62 million people.

[vpearlkc]

15 minutes ago, Newleno said:

a lot of people in the usa and europe are unemployed right now, so if the ships are in these 2 areas of the world hire them.

 

I don't think many Americans would put up with the pay, living or working conditions provided on cruise ships neither would western europeans.  

[pcakes122]

58 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 Three weeks ago New York (the national covid petri dish) was reporting over 1,000 deaths per day.  They are now down to the 200's daily.  Where do you think they will be eight weeks from now?

The reason the numbers in New York have come down is the RESULT of shutting all non-essential businesses and forcing everyone to stay home.  And 200 people a day are STILL dying.

 

Do you honestly think that the death rate will stay on that same downward trajectory if we go back to allowing large gatherings?  

[vpearlkc]

4 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

The reason the numbers in New York have come down is the RESULT of shutting all non-essential businesses and forcing everyone to stay home.  And 200 people a day are STILL dying.

 

Do you honestly think that the death rate will stay on that same downward trajectory if we go back to allowing large gatherings?  

 

No one knows for sure but we may know in a few weeks now that things are starting to open up around the country. 

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, vpearlkc said:

 

People who think everything will be back to normal in 2 or 3 months are living in la la land but maybe it's a better place than I've been living, isolating for the last month and half with walking the dog the highlight of my day.

no they wont start up with a 100 ships as normal, they will start slowly with a few ,. and as far as crew there will be plenty that get new contracts and be transferred on board once states are fully opened up.   also if they plan on limiting pax they will not need full staff on board. 

[Corliss]

21 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

The reason the numbers in New York have come down is the RESULT of shutting all non-essential businesses and forcing everyone to stay home.  And 200 people a day are STILL dying.

 

Do you honestly think that the death rate will stay on that same downward trajectory if we go back to allowing large gatherings?  

 

Did you read the link I posted?  You should, it is excellent.   Here is one more from a different scientist.   The virus peaks at around 6 weeks and trends downward.  While Ben-Israel says “he supports social distancing, the worldwide shuttering of economies constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics.”  

 

  https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/israeli-professor-offers-alternate-coronavirus-prediction/

 

There is a noticeable absence of factoring in the decimation of an economy among those favoring long nation wide lock downs.  This policy has devastating effects on large numbers of the population.   It is especially hard to understand when the overwhelming majority of the nation has very low covid numbers.

 

And as an aside approximately 25% of New York's deaths come from nursing homes and similar institutions.  New York did an awful job protecting the vulnerable....even REQUIRING them to accept covid positive people who then spread the infection throughout the facility to staff and other patients.  "An accident looking for a place to happen."  And, of course, lots of those deaths are in health care workers and other essential workers who had to use the disease ridden subway to get to work.

 

But, nonetheless, yes I do think the death rate will stay on the same downward trajectory....especially since they are now going to clean their subways every day and are changing their nursing home covid policies...:-)

 

 

 

 

 

[pcakes122]

1 hour ago, Corliss said:

 

Did you read the link I posted?  You should, it is excellent.   Here is one more from a different scientist.   The virus peaks at around 6 weeks and trends downward.  While Ben-Israel says “he supports social distancing, the worldwide shuttering of economies constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics.”  

 

  https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/israeli-professor-offers-alternate-coronavirus-prediction/

 

There is a noticeable absence of factoring in the decimation of an economy among those favoring long nation wide lock downs.  This policy has devastating effects on large numbers of the population.   It is especially hard to understand when the overwhelming majority of the nation has very low covid numbers.

 

And as an aside approximately 25% of New York's deaths come from nursing homes and similar institutions.  New York did an awful job protecting the vulnerable....even REQUIRING them to accept covid positive people who then spread the infection throughout the facility to staff and other patients.  "An accident looking for a place to happen."  And, of course, lots of those deaths are in health care workers and other essential workers who had to use the disease ridden subway to get to work.

 

But, nonetheless, yes I do think the death rate will stay on the same downward trajectory....especially since they are now going to clean their subways every day and are changing their nursing home covid policies...:-)

 

 

 

 

 

If you search on the internet, you can find a multitude of varying opinions.

 

I am speaking from the position of someone who contracted Covid-19 on a cruise ship and (thankfully) lived to tell about it.  Not everyone was as lucky.

 

If you search my prior posts, you will see all the precautions that I took to ensure that I would be safe on the ship.  I was actually in the Deluxe Owners Suite on the Bliss which is as far forward as you can get.  I took the majority of meals in my suite and I did not go to ANY common areas on the ship except for the casino (3x) where I actually wiped down my slot machines with disinfectant.  I was extremely naive and did not realize just how contagious and virulent Covid-19 is.

 

When I caution that we shouldn't be cruising too soon, it is more for others than myself since (hopefully) I now have some sort of immunity to the virus.

 

So, unless you have survived Covid-19, I respectfully take your opinion with a grain of salt. However, I would love to hear from other Covid-19 survivors about how anxious they are to get back to group gatherings and cruising.

Edited May 4, 2020 by pcakes122

[Corliss]

Yes, pcakes I had read all your other posts about your covid experience.....how NCL had notified you after your cruise that someone from the Bliss cruise had been confirmed positive for covid....how "shocked you were when your test was positive" and that you wouldn't have even had a test had you not heard from NCL  (good to hear it sounds like you had a mild case.)  The Diamond Princess "infection fatality rate" was 1.3% and that was in spite of the whole ship being exposed for weeks.

 

This may surprise you but your experience with covid contracted on the Bliss made me even more comfortable with my Sept. 20 Bliss Alaska booking.  There were over 5,000 people (passengers and crew) on your cruise and there was covid on board and yet an incredibly small number of people were infected.  Considering that covid is highly contagious there must have been pretty good sanitation and hygiene on that ship.  As I have previously stated in other posts I think ship sanitation (and screening) is superior to what the average person is subjected to in daily life.  I know most of my fellow passengers on my 24 day Jewel cruise were grateful that we were safe on board during March....with no social distancing or masks....:-)

 

While covid is an issue I will travel with my hydroxychloroquine (I took it daily for years for arthritis,) my Zpac (purchased over the counter in Mexican pharmacies) and good old zinc and should symptoms appear I will self medicate and take the one in 5,000 odds chance.

[pcakes122]

22 minutes ago, Corliss said:

Yes, pcakes I had read all your other posts about your covid experience.....how NCL had notified you after your cruise that someone from the Bliss cruise had been confirmed positive for covid....how "shocked you were when your test was positive" and that you wouldn't have even had a test had you not heard from NCL  (good to hear it sounds like you had a mild case.)  The Diamond Princess "infection fatality rate" was 1.3% and that was in spite of the whole ship being exposed for weeks.

 

This may surprise you but your experience with covid contracted on the Bliss made me even more comfortable with my Sept. 20 Bliss Alaska booking.  There were over 5,000 people (passengers and crew) on your cruise and there was covid on board and yet an incredibly small number of people were infected.

I'm happy that my experience made you feel safe, but you have no idea how many people on my sailing were infected.  NCL did not collect any numbers of positive cases once we returned home. 

 

And I was absolutely shocked when my test was positive, because I didn't have any of the published symptoms (such as fever - never had one during the 6 weeks I battled the disease.) However, don't interpret that to mean that I had a mild case.  I continued to get sicker and sicker after my diagnosis.  I am disabled and have underlying chronic medical conditions. I have been through my share of illness in my life, and I can tell you with complete conviction that my experience with Covid-19 was the sickest I have ever been. It was the scariest experience that I've ever had and I still have residual symptoms (and hopefully not the lasting medical issues that are being reported.)  I have been trying to donate plasma for antibodies and unfortunately I am unable to as yet since I am still symptomatic.

 

Again, it's easier to say if you have not been there. I'm sure many of the people still hospitalized and fighting for their life would love to have your "easy peasy" Covid-19 get well kit.  You should share that with your local hospital - clearly the doctors in the US don't know what they're doing and people are dying needlessly.

 

Also, have you thought about the people you might infect should you contract Covid-19 on a ship?  I guess, according to you, I shouldn't worry that I gave it to anyone else on the ship. However, I'm sure that's not the case and I feel very guilty about how naive and selfish I was. 

 

I can only share my authentic experience. People will twist it anyway they want in order to support their own agenda. There is nothing I can do about that but to say "good luck." I hope I never have to say I told you so.

 

 

[Corliss]

4 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

I'm sure many of the people still hospitalized and fighting for their life would love to have your "easy peasy" Covid-19 get well kit.  You should share that with your local hospital - clearly the doctors in the US don't know what they're doing and people are dying needlessly.

 

 

I am sure many of them would have loved to have had early access to the protocol I mentioned since it is the preferred global treatment for covid.  Unfortunately, doctors can prescribe hydroxy on an out-patient basis for covid; but governments have not allowed pharmacies to fill prescriptions for anyone who wasn't already taking it (lupus and arthritis patients.)  This is due to the shortage of the drug though Trump has recently procured 29 million doses of it (got India to withdraw their ban on exporting it in order to keep it for their own need.)   

 

Doctors can and do use it on an inpatient basis; but due to the heavy use of hospitals during the pandemic the hospitals will not admit you until you are very sick.  The drug is less effective in the later stages of the disease as most drugs are.  The drug is used relatively early in France at the IHU and this is their current results....Out of 3,220 patients treated with 3 or more days of this protocol there have been 16 deaths.

 

You don't feel comfortable cruising now that covid is going to be a long term part of the picture and that is fine.  As I keep stating I consider being on a cruise ship during this pandemic as SAFER than I do being out with the general public.  I weigh risk carefully which is why you couldn't pay me to go to the New York/New Jersey region....:-)  To each their own. 

[pcakes122]

9 minutes ago, Corliss said:

 

I am sure many of them would have loved to have had early access to the protocol I mentioned since it is the preferred global treatment for covid.  Unfortunately, doctors can prescribe hydroxy on an out-patient basis for covid; but governments have not allowed pharmacies to fill prescriptions for anyone who wasn't already taking it (lupus and arthritis patients.)  This is due to the shortage of the drug though Trump has recently procured 29 million doses of it (got India to withdraw their ban on exporting it in order to keep it for their own need.)   

 

Doctors can and do use it on an inpatient basis; but due to the heavy use of hospitals during the pandemic the hospitals will not admit you until you are very sick.  The drug is less effective in the later stages of the disease as most drugs are.  The drug is used relatively early in France at the IHU and this is their current results....Out of 3,220 patients treated with 3 or more days of this protocol there have been 16 deaths.

 

You don't feel comfortable cruising now that covid is going to be a long term part of the picture and that is fine.  As I keep stating I consider being on a cruise ship during this pandemic as SAFER than I do being out with the general public.  I weigh risk carefully which is why you couldn't pay me to go to the New York/New Jersey region....:-)  To each their own. 

You are behind the times in terms of protocol for Covid-19 treatment. They've stopped using Plaquenil due to side effects in combination with the Z-Pak after clinical trials.  If you Google, make sure you are looking at the DATE of the articles.  This combination of drugs was looked at and used early, however it is no longer recommended. If you want the most up-to-date information from ACTUAL cases, there is an open online group called Survivor Corps of people that have been actually tested and treated for the disease. You will learn a lot about what is truly happening and what drugs work and don't work.

 

Also, I never said that I don't personally feel comfortable. I actually have four more cruises booked this year and four in 2021. Since I've already had Covid-19, hopefully I have immunity to the disease, so I'd say I'm at less of a risk than others.

 

I have shared my story mainly for people who have not had the disease. I was very naive and maybe even arrogant before I cruised in March because I thought everyone telling me NOT to cruise was being dramatic. I thought I had it all figured out and under control, just like a lot of people here.

 

Not too proud to say that I was wrong. Dead wrong. And I almost paid for it with my life.

[Corliss]

35 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

You are behind the times in terms of protocol for Covid-19 treatment. They've stopped using Plaquenil due to side effects in combination with the Z-Pak after clinical trials.  If you Google, make sure you are looking at the DATE of the articles.  This combination of drugs was looked at and used early, however it is no longer recommended. If you want the most up-to-date information from ACTUAL cases, there is an open online group called Survivor Corps of people that have been actually tested and treated for the disease. You will learn a lot about what is truly happening and what drugs work and don't work.

 

Oh my.....you don't read info here, do you?  I have repeatedly posted the links and the data on covid treatments.  I would have cut and pasted the data, but Cruise Critic does not allow that.  You have to just post the links which is what I have done over and over again.  I can't believe that someone who actually has the disease has not bothered to become knowledgeable about it.

 

 

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Abstract_Raoult_EarlyTrtCovid19_09042020_vD1v.pdf

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Table_final_website_IHU_09_04_2020.pdf

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/

The following two are global surveys from doctors....right up to the minute.

 https://public-cdn.sermo.com/covid19/72/2314/1447ce/47ce8d4abd94b5da7124cb64fe/wave-2-sermo-covid-19-global-analysis.pdf

https://app.sermo.com/covid19-barometer?utm_campaign=wwwsermo_covid19

Dr. Raoult has just released THE EFFICACY OF CHLOROQUINE DERIVATIVES IN COVID-19: A META-ANALYSIS BASED ON THE FIRST AVAILABLE REPORTS

https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/the-efficacy-of-chloroquine-derivatives-in-covid-19-a-meta-analysis-based-on-the-first-available-reports/

This meta-analysis is based on several studies, including four RCTs, and identifies a favourable trend toward the benefit of chloroquine derivatives in the treatment of COVID-19 patients, enabling us to make a grade I  recommendation for its use against the disease  Apr. 30

Very favorable for Hydroxychloroquine

https://news.sd.gov/newsitem.aspx?id=26644

Edited May 4, 2020 by Corliss

[pcakes122]

I know that you mean well, so I'm going to refrain from sarcasm.  However, you really have no clue about this disease because once it hits you the last thing you are doing is Googling on the internet.  It literally takes your breath away, meaning you can't breathe. You are trying to equate it to a cold or a flu where you might be sitting in bed feeling lousy but reading cruise forums on your iPad. That is not what Covid-19 is. Before you contract this disease you'd better be sure that you have a very good doctor that you trust and a very good family member or friend who can act as an advocate for you when you can't speak. The idea that you could contract it on a ship, pop a few pills and be fine shows a serious lack of respect and understanding for the impact of this virus.  Chances are you would contract it on the ship and never know it, pass it to hundreds of people while you are still not fully exhibiting symptoms, and then get home and wind up in the hospital two weeks later.

 

My hospital and doctors who knew my case and my pre-existing conditions treated me with the drugs and the protocols that saved my life. Plaquenil was not one of them (by the way I have rheumatoid arthritis and I have been on Plaquenil at various points in my life so I am very familiar with the drug.)

 

Again, I know you mean well, but you need to refrain from trying to give medical advice on the internet.  I pointed you to a resource where you can read actual cases from actual patients with the actual drugs they were treated with and the actual results of those drugs. The group I cited has more than 45,000 members.  If you really want to understand about this disease, find that group (unfortunately forum rules prevent me from linking the group.)

 

My opinion is firm that until there is a way to control this disease, it is not safe or smart to gather in crowds or to cruise.

 

We will just have to agree to disagree on this one.

[Corliss]

pcakes unlike you I posted actual medical data from studies, trials, doctor surveys....all up to the minute.  You post your opinion, over and over again.  The fact that you choose not to read any of the medical data is up to you. 

 

Again you have stated that your firm opinion is that it is not safe or smart to gather in crowds or to cruise.  SO DON'T.

[pcakes122]

6 minutes ago, Corliss said:

pcakes unlike you I posted actual medical data from studies, trials, doctor surveys....all up to the minute.  You post your opinion, over and over again.  The fact that you choose not to read any of the medical data is up to you. 

 

Again you have stated that your firm opinion is that it is not safe or smart to gather in crowds or to cruise.  SO DON'T.

You are posting random studies because you are trying to win an argument. My goal was not to have an argument. If you need a study showing that Plaquenil is not recommended, here's one https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/hydroxychloroquine-for-covid-19-what-do-the-clinical-trials-tell-us/.

 

The biggest thing you fail to understand is that it's not all about you. With Covid-19 still prevalent, every decision you make affects others around you.

 

I won't continue to go back and forth with you because you just don't get it. You mentioned in a previous post that you had or have arthritis. What you are saying about Covid-19 is like someone saying to you "Oh you have arthritis? I saw a commercial for a new arthritis medicine so you can just take that and you won't have arthritis anymore!!" 

 

That's what you sound like to me when you talk about Covid-19 treatment.  I just can't anymore.  LOL  Again, good luck to you, but I'm out.

[hamrag]

4 hours ago, Corliss said:

I am sure many of them would have loved to have had early access to the protocol I mentioned since it is the preferred global treatment for covid.  Unfortunately, doctors can prescribe hydroxy on an out-patient basis for covid; but governments have not allowed pharmacies to fill prescriptions for anyone who wasn't already taking it (lupus and arthritis patients.)  This is due to the shortage of the drug though Trump has recently procured 29 million doses of it (got India to withdraw their ban on exporting it in order to keep it for their own need.)..... 

 

Does the White House know about you, I rather think you should get in touch.....unless they already employ you as an advisor?

[Corliss]

I'm amused....:-)

[mugtech]

13 minutes ago, Corliss said:

I'm amused....:-)

And amusing 

[Newleno]

10 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

The reason the numbers in New York have come down is the RESULT of shutting all non-essential businesses and forcing everyone to stay home.  And 200 people a day are STILL dying.

 

Do you honestly think that the death rate will stay on that same downward trajectory if we go back to allowing large gatherings?  

As we all know the plan was made so that hospitals are not overrun,  So it is not about how many of us get the wuhan or die from the wuhan, it is all about the integrity of the hospitals.  Let's not change the goal posts here.  So if the hospitals are not overrun and can handle capacity, then you take steps. I totally disagree with your assessment, you cant treat Idaho like nyc. The Fiat currency system is in great jeopardy, so once again if the hospitals are not overrun we need to get the economy moving in order to avoid total collapse.  I think that people need to be educated that money does not grow on trees.  If everyone could have free everything the whole world would have done it by now.

Edited May 4, 2020 by Newleno