SS Future Re-Open Plan: Timing, Testing Needs??!!

[TLCOhio]

Earlier this week, I wrote to Mark Conroy, Silversea’s Managing Director, The Americas, to thank him for his office’s help in getting a refund processed after our March 12 cancellation of an early 2021 Galápagos Islands sailing.  I followed up asking him about the future for Silversea and the return of their cruising business.

 

He was kind enough to reply back with a very detailed and solid outline as to what is needed to happen and when.  Below are the key highlights.  His comments are highlighted below in quotes and in black.  He expressed their . . . .

 

“hoping to resume operations in July but for us or any cruise line to begin again we need the following:

* Countries need to allow cross boarder travel,

* Airlines need to be flying to get guests to the destinations where or cruises operate,   

* We need to have a test process in place which helps identify infected guests in order to keep them off the ships.”

 

Those three steps/requirements are clear and understandably on point.  Then, he offered these added and needed aspects to make such a plan work effectively:

 

“We have a couple of options we are considering and are trying to source them.

 1st we are considering sending a test kit to guests with their documents where they would test themselves the day of departure and if positive not travel.

 2nd we would test them again at either a pre-cruise hotel or at the pier prior to boarding and if positive they would not be allowed to board.”

 

That sounds, in my view, excellent.  But, however, much of “it” will be all about testing.  As Mark continued, he noted and shared:

“To do either we need an easy and reliable testing kit that gives immediate results like the test for pregnancy, iron content and diabetes.   If we can get the testing correctly done we can begin to operate due to the limited number of guests we carry and the spaciousness of our ships.”

 

His overview, historically, for cruise line recovery was this background as relates to the parent company and Silversea:

“We also need to remind people this is a resilient business, 2019 which ended just 5 months ago was the best in our history, the RCCL group had a net profit of $2bn in 2019.   When a treatment or vaccination is developed the traveling public will hopefully put this into an acceptable risk profile similar to other contagious diseases like the flu so business should return to normal fairly quickly.”

 

MY ANALYSIS/REACTIONS:  This is a very thoughtful, substantive, realistic series of comments and details to form a forward-looking plan for Silversea and other cruise lines.  BUT, we are not close to having all countries willing to accept a wide-range of international visitors, airlines are far from ready to return fully to their schedules AND, most important, we are a long ways from having the types of handy, easy, quick, established and proven testing technology to make such a plan work successfully.

 

From one Silversea veteran who has solid medical/legal background, her smart, additional questions correctly centered around: “What do they do with those who have the antibodies?  Keep them off or allow on the ship?  How would Silversea control for passengers getting on and off at ports to tour with guides and excursions?”

 

My personal viewpoint is that it is going to be much, much longer to get back to even some form of partial “normal”.   And, much of Silversea’s customer base on many of its cruises are people age 60+ with higher health vulnerability than those in the young age categories.  Yes, we are also experienced and educated customers who are going to want a serious plan (as this offers).  BUT, we do not want to take unreasonable risks without real certainty for safety and proper health standards.  Hope this information is of help and benefit. 

 

Reactions and comments?  Additional questions, info needs, speculation and opinions?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

Completed last summer Calgary, Jasper/Banff National Parks, Western Canada Rocky Mountaineer rail adventure, Vancouver, sailing up to Alaska on the Silver Muse, post-cruise excursion to Denali, etc.  Many visuals and details from our first in these scenic areas!  Live/blog at: 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2682584-live-terryohio-silver-muse-alaska-canadarockies-pix’s/

[WesW]

thanks 4 sharing this important Silversea planning information Terrry

[Bucephalus53]

Thanks for sharing my Buckeye friend. Good stuff. 

[Stumblefoot]

Thanks Terry.  Will be interesting to watch what happens over the forthcoming months.

[spinnaker2]

The so called immunity passport is being touted by some countries and some airlines. I know Greece is contemplating allowing some tourists to cross their borders with the IP.

It seems pretty controversial at the moment as there isn't enough information know if a person who has antibodies to Covid19 is protected against reinfection because of immunity.

 

I think other countries are also considering the IP.

 

 

I would be willing to take a cruise that is only sea days. That would eliminate the issue of possible contamination from an excursion.

Of course the ship would have to leave from and return to the same port. One would still need to screen pax for the virus. 

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by spinnaker2

[crusinbanjo]

I agree, Mrs Banjo and I are watching closely as we are booked on 2 segments of the 2021 WC , departing early Jan from Ft Lauderdale.  We will need to decide to pay or cancel in early September.   We have our hopes on going, but are only cautiously optimistic.

[alexandria]

Thanks for the information.  The testing proposal is an interesting one, but I wonder how the process of that will work and how the various outcomes will affect refunds and coverage of travel insurance.

 

It would obviously be problematic if a non-symptomatic person traveled a significant distance to the port of embarkation only to test positive and be denied boarding.  Would a denied boarding by Silversea (as opposed to a cancelled trip) be reimbursed or refunded by Silversea?  The Silversea conditions indicate that they would not be responsible for denied boarding:  "Silversea reserves the right without liability to require a guest to disembark and / or to refuse to board and transport a guest who, in the judgment of Silversea or the ship’s Master, is unfit to travel or may require care beyond that which Silversea is reasonably able to provide."  But if the denied boarding is based upon a new requirement to pass and complete a screening test for COVID (which is not currently required), would Silversea still deny liability or would a refund be provided.  What if a passenger refuses to take such a test?  Can Silversea require this as a condition of boarding even though it is not presently in the terms and conditions of those who are currently booked?

 

If a passenger takes a screening test and is positive, does the passenger self-isolate in the city the cruise embarks?  If it is simply a voluntary self-isolation in a local hotel, would travel insurers consider that a "quarantine" to invoke coverage if quarantine is a covered event for trip delay, interruption and cancellation reimbursement?  I don't know the answer to this.  Would the rules or laws of that country or locality require notification of the positive test result and involuntary quarantine?  At least that would invoke coverage under some travel insurance policies.

 

It seems the better course of action would be to provide a pre-departure test.  However, if Silversea provides a test for the passenger to take prior to leaving home to travel, I would think it would need to be administered in sufficient time for the passenger, in the event of a positive test, to consult with a physician and receive the necessary certification of sickness so that travel insurance will cover losses due to cancellation.  However, will a physician be willing to certify that a passenger is unable to travel based upon a self-administered screening test provided by Silversea?  If not, and the physician performs a second (and perhaps more accurate) test which returns a negative result, where does that leave the passenger?? 

 

While those tests would perhaps provide some protection and reassurance prior to each sailing, will additional tests be required and administered as the cruise progresses and passengers and crew are in contact with people and surfaces in each port of call? 

 

These are interesting issues in uncharted waters and I'm sure that Silversea, RCCL and their attorneys will be looking at all of these (and many other) scenarios as they also review public health guidance and advisories to plan the future of safe cruise travel. 

 

 

[Observer]

2 hours ago, alexandria said:

 

 

 

While those tests would perhaps provide some protection and reassurance prior to each sailing, will additional tests be required and administered as the cruise progresses and passengers and crew are in contact with people and surfaces in each port of call? 

 

 

I think you raise a number of interesting/important issues.  To my mind, this is the most vexing.  One can depart with a completely virus-free ship but then have the virus come aboard as a result of contact during a port visit.  Perhaps non-intrusive daily temperature checks could provide early warning of an infected person, and a person with a fever could receive a COVID 19 test.

[alexandria]

My wife has followed the scientific aspects of this closely as she is retired from CDC, her background and education is in public health and epidemiology.  One shortcoming with the temperature checks is that those only detect persons who have an elevated temperature due to symptoms of COVID.  Thus far the evidence indicates that a relatively significant number of persons who become infected with COVID remain asymptomatic but yet can spread the virus.  Apparently that number is currently estimated at around 25% based upon testing and monitoring of groups of persons who have been in close contact with COVID patients.

 

The second shortcoming with the temperature checks is that it appears that the presymptomatic phase of COVID can be as short as just a few days to as long as two weeks.  That is the period between becoming infected and displaying symptoms.  And modeling and studies seem to indicate at this point that the three days prior to development of symptoms may be the most contagious period.

 

There may be no foolproof "solutions" to this issue for cruise lines, but as my wife pointed out, rigorous sanitizing and cleaning protocols, along with frequent hand washing, coughing into an elbow or tissue, and social distancing to avoid transmission of respiratory particles are the most effective way for most to avoid infection (and not just from COVID but from many other illnesses).

 

 

[TLCOhio]

16 hours ago, spinnaker2 said:

The so called immunity passport is being touted by some countries and some airlines. I know Greece is contemplating allowing some tourists to cross their borders with the IP.

It seems pretty controversial at the moment as there isn't enough information know if a person who has antibodies to Covid19 is protected against reinfection because of immunity.  I think other countries are also considering the IP.  I would be willing to take a cruise that is only sea days. That would eliminate the issue of possible contamination from an excursion.  Of course the ship would have to leave from and return to the same port. One would still need to screen pax for the virus. 

 

Appreciate all of these various very good comments and follow-ups from WesW, Bucephalus53, Stumblefoot, crusinbanjo, etc. Will post more later in reaction to the excellent range of insights and details from alexandria.  Above from Spins is very good in raising the potential options for some type of "immunity passport". However, as you see in the below news article, there are serious questions as to how well this option would insure protection.  

 

I see the point for just doing a "Floating on a Boat", sea-days cruise that goes from one port and returns back to that same location.  For us and many others, however, a large number of travelers are as much or more about the cruise itinerary and sampling a variety of interesting locations/ports around the world.  Those market trade-offs will be a key reality as to how well the three major cruise ship operators can effectively get back in business in an efficient manner that either breaks-even or does not lose too much money.

 

From CNBC News this past week, they had this headline: “WHO warns about coronavirus antibody tests as some nations consider issuing ‘immunity passports’ to recovered patients” with these highlights: “Scientists still don’t know whether coronavirus antibodies give a person immunity or reduce the risk of reinfection, even as some nations consider issuing passports or certificates that indicate whether someone has had the virus, World Health Organization officials said Monday.  Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, told reporters that scientists are unsure whether an antibody response means someone is immune from the virus.”

 

This CNBC article also noted: "WHO officials are studying the so-called serological, or antibody, tests, which can indicate whether a person has had Covid-19 in the past and was either asymptomatic or recovered from the illness. U.S. officials and corporations across America are pouring money into antibody testing, hoping it will give people confidence to return to work and reopen parts of the economy."

 

Full story at:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/27/who-warns-about-coronavirus-antibody-tests-as-some-nations-consider-immunity-passports-or-risk-free-certificates.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Wonderful scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 239,206

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[etual324]

What would the frequency of crew testing  be ??

Would tour operators be tested and entertainers that get on and off in different ports  ??

Edited May 3, 2020 by etual324
grammer

[tgh]

Silver Muse and Silver Explorer have been at anchor off the Panama Canal entrance for some weeks now.

I assumed they were still en route to Tenerife  and were waiting for a "cheap" slot as time was not of the essence.

It occurs to me that SS may be hedging their bets as AU and NZ discuss bilateral travel in the next few months.

The combined Au/Nz  patronage on its own would likely be uneconomic, BUT  there "could"  be a test arrangement whereby overseas guests would quarantine for 14 days ( at their expense )  before boarding.

Neither Au or Nz will be relaxed about this theoretical proposal ,and any International visitors would be scrutinised very very closely.

Otoh, both Au and Nz are egalitarian and safe countries with first world medical facilities so if it can be done here, it may be possible to do it elsewhere in time.

 

 

 

[philipb]

On 5/3/2020 at 3:15 AM, Observer said:

 

I think you raise a number of interesting/important issues.  To my mind, this is the most vexing.  One can depart with a completely virus-free ship but then have the virus come aboard as a result of contact during a port visit.  Perhaps non-intrusive daily temperature checks could provide early warning of an infected person, and a person with a fever could receive a COVID 19 test.

 

 

I think the answer to this is that cruising will not recommence until either the R factor drops to zero (meaning Covid-19 is eliminated worldwide) or we have an effective and proven vaccine. In all other scenarios the risks are just too high.

The main cruise companies are all currently in the midst of a major exercise to repatriate crew to their home countries. Go around this site to see what is going on. In the case of RCCL this article will give you some idea.

http://crew-center.com/royal-caribbean-announces-major-crew-repatriation-plan

It seems to me highly unlikely that operations can re-start in the foreseeable future. This month-by-month cancellation of forthcoming cruises is probably just a means of smoothing the workflow of the administration process.

 

[Tothesunset]

2 minutes ago, philipb said:

 

 

I think the answer to this is that cruising will not recommence until either the R factor drops to zero (meaning Covid-19 is eliminated worldwide) or we have an effective and proven vaccine. In all other scenarios the risks are just too high.

 

 

Very well stated. 

 

I'd also add that while cruise lines may restart operations at some undefined time, will passengers be happy to travel, especially to areas with less advanced medical services, until CV-19 is either eliminated or they are immune? 

 

My honest opinion is that the freedoms to travel by air and sea may not return for years, if at all. Not all airlines and cruise lines will survive nor will all the package travel companies, hotels, suppliers etc.. I know we don't want to acknowledge it but the travel world has just been hit on the head with a great big hammer and may well not recover. 

[TLCOhio]

4 minutes ago, philipb said:

It seems to me highly unlikely that operations can re-start in the foreseeable future. This month-by-month cancellation of forthcoming cruises is probably just a means of smoothing the workflow of the administration process.

 

Appreciate these additional thoughtful comments and various follow-ups such as quoted above from philipb in the UK.  

 

From Barron's, associated with the Wall Street Journal, they have posted within the past few minutes this morning, they had this headline: “Carnival Lays Out Plan to Begin Limited Sailings Aug. 1” with these highlights: “Carnival, the world’s largest cruise operator, said it plans to resume North American sailings on a limited basis starting Aug. 1 after being sidelined amid the coronavirus pandemic.  The Miami-based cruise operator, which oversees nine brands and more than 100 ships, on Monday cited in a press release eight ships that it plans to use when it reopens. Carnival and its two largest U.S. peers— Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH)—suspended their operations in mid-March.  These companies have been burning millions of dollars of cash each month as their ships sit idle. As of Monday morning, neither Royal Caribbean nor Norwegian had posted on their websites plans for resuming operations.”

 

It would seem that Silversea and others will be scrubbing their cruise options soon for June and July.  Soon we will find out if that Carnival target of an Aug. 1 cruise re-opening is realistic or just hopeful wishing.

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/carnival-lays-out-plan-to-begin-limited-sailings-aug-1-51588602698?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D29130727180777747092611785640917182684|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1588602889

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 229,849 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

[highplanesdrifters]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/05/04/coronavirus-carnival-resume-some-north-american-cruises-summer/3077060001/

 

Carnival to resume some North American Cruises August 1.

Oooops, looks like Terry and I were watching the same news feed.

Edited May 4, 2020 by highplanesdrifters

[TLCOhio]

27 minutes ago, highplanesdrifters said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2020/05/04/coronavirus-carnival-resume-some-north-american-cruises-summer/3077060001/

Carnival to resume some North American Cruises August 1.

Oooops, looks like Terry and I were watching the same news feed.

 

For highplanesdrifters, it is just a case of two great minds being on top of breaking news at the same time.  We each had different news sources.  Below is a link to learn added background about these upcoming moves (timing hopes) by Carnival:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/coronavirus-carnival-cruise-line-says-it-will-sail-again-august-1.html

 

Carnival is clearly a "BIG PLAYER" with huge market share and many different cruising brands, plus related to serious questions as to how cruise lines handled (or screwed up) this virus situation. From the Miami Herald Saturday, they had this headline: “Congress to investigate Carnival Corporation’s handling of COVID-19 on its cruise ships” with these highlights: “The U.S. House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure announced an investigation into Carnival Corporation’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic on Friday.  In a letter to CEO Arnold Donald, the chair of the committee Oregon Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio requested the cruise company turn over all internal documents and communications related to COVID-19 since Jan. 1. Citing repeated COVID-19 outbreaks on Carnival Corp. ships, and a history of norovirus outbreaks in the cruise industry, DeFazio said more robust health precautions must be required when the company begins operations again.”.

 

Second is the huge impact in Australia related to questionable management decisions by Carnival in that great country.  In the middle of last week, here was an MSN story with this headline: "Australia links outbreak to cruise ship" with these story highlights: "Australia said a coronavirus outbreak in the state of Tasmania likely originated from the Ruby Princess cruise ship, according to a government report published Thursday, Reuters reported. The Ruby Princess cruise, which is owned by a unit of Carnival Corp, is Australia's largest source of infections as some 2,700 people were allowed to leave the ship when in docked in Sydney last month, according to Reuters. That was despite some people showing symptoms of Covid-19. Tasmania recorded 12 deaths from the virus and all but two were linked to the cruise ship, Reuters reported."

 

Don't think that I want to be sailing on a large and crowded Carnival, Princess, Holland American, etc., ship for many, many years given their sorry history during the recent months.  Like smaller and better managed with a more careful and well-traveled group of fellow passengers.. 

 

Full stories at:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242434451.html

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/coronavirus-updates-australia-links-outbreak-to-cruise-ship-dbs-sets-aside-funds-for-virus-impact/ar-BB13ovEF

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 87,086 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[highplanesdrifters]

Terry - Great minds.........Well we know one is!  Hint, it's not me.   Saw the news on the Bloomberg scroll and dug a little deeper.  We had hoped to jump on a Seabourn or Silversea this summer, but most certainly unlikely. So we are tossing the idea of a long road trip to the Banff area.  Your post from last years trip to that area has been most helpful. Thank you. We will probably stay a few nights at the Fairmont on Lake Louise, but any suggestions for other lodging in the area?   As an aside, when I looked up the Rocky Mountaineer Train trip on Trip Advisor, there were many posts complaining that even though the company canceled the train journeys, they would NOT issue refunds, only future credits. It puts the refund delays from cruise companies in a completely different light. Thanks again for all your posts.

[crusinbanjo]

5 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

Terry - Great minds.........Well we know one is!  Hint, it's not me.   Saw the news on the Bloomberg scroll and dug a little deeper.  We had hoped to jump on a Seabourn or Silversea this summer, but most certainly unlikely. So we are tossing the idea of a long road trip to the Banff area.  Your post from last years trip to that area has been most helpful. Thank you. We will probably stay a few nights at the Fairmont on Lake Louise, but any suggestions for other lodging in the area?   As an aside, when I looked up the Rocky Mountaineer Train trip on Trip Advisor, there were many posts complaining that even though the company canceled the train journeys, they would NOT issue refunds, only future credits. It puts the refund delays from cruise companies in a completely different light. Thanks again for all your posts.

I know this is a little off topic, but,

Mrs Banjo and I were scheduled to be on a tour beginning September 23 going to Banff and the areas you are speaking about.  We got a call today from the company that was handling our booking canceling the trip.  I thought this was kind of early for them to be canceling but the nice lady told me it is because of expected circumstances in the fall.

I have to assume they know something that I don't, so if I were you, I would check carefully to be sure hotels and the like will actually be available.

 

[highplanesdrifters]

12 minutes ago, crusinbanjo said:

I know this is a little off topic, but,

Mrs Banjo and I were scheduled to be on a tour beginning September 23 going to Banff and the areas you are speaking about.  We got a call today from the company that was handling our booking canceling the trip.  I thought this was kind of early for them to be canceling but the nice lady told me it is because of expected circumstances in the fall.

I have to assume they know something that I don't, so if I were you, I would check carefully to be sure hotels and the like will actually be available.

 

Wow, canceled a fall trip! Very interesting. Thanks for the info. Everything I've checked so far is closed for now. It would be a road trip. We will not cross the border until things are firm. Easy to cancel, or zig zag somewhere else. Double WOW on the expected circumstances in the fall.

Edited May 4, 2020 by highplanesdrifters

[mrlevin]

5 hours ago, crusinbanjo said:

I know this is a little off topic, but,

Mrs Banjo and I were scheduled to be on a tour beginning September 23 going to Banff and the areas you are speaking about.  We got a call today from the company that was handling our booking canceling the trip.  I thought this was kind of early for them to be canceling but the nice lady told me it is because of expected circumstances in the fall.

I have to assume they know something that I don't, so if I were you, I would check carefully to be sure hotels and the like will actually be available.

 

 

Can I take this thread farther off topic.  We have a land trip to US National Parks followed by a week in Canada in mid-September; all independent arrangements.  Did your tour operator specify what suppliers were cancelling?  I went on Fairmont site and there was no indication of any problems; in fact, they were planning on reopening in June.

 

Thanks for any info you can provide,

 

Marc

[netpj]

Terry, we have just scrolled through this thread for the first time.  Very interesting comments.  We were on a world cruise on a very good ship (not Silversea) when the remainder of the cruise was cancelled in Australia.  Thankfully, no outbreaks on the ship.  However, after that experience and all the related issues with returning home etc.  we would be very hesitant to even consider cruising for the next year or so.  One of the issues is the high probability of a second wave and how that will affect things.  How cruise lines can even contemplate starting up again in August, makes us really wonder.

 

We had one Silversea cruise booked for this summer for a major birthday and several booked for next winter - we have cancelled all of them.  You mentioned that Mark Conroy's office helped you to get a refund processed, have you actually received the refund?  We are awaiting a substantial amount of funds to be reimbursed, the cruises were all cancelled in late March under Silverseas's then excellent cash refund policy.

 

Just a note to those planning to travel to Canada in the Fall, hopefully the border will have reopened by then, but there is no guarantee, just something to consider.

[spinnaker2]

CDC says no sailing until July 24. All cruise travel in USA banned until then.

Carnival says will sail as early as August, maybe...

No assurances for anything yet.

 

 

[TLCOhio]

3 minutes ago, spinnaker2 said:

CDC says no sailing until July 24. All cruise travel in USA banned until then.

Carnival says will sail as early as August, maybe... No assurances for anything yet.

 

Appreciate Spins'  quick and on-point above excellent summary.  As highlighted above, the key word is "MAYBE"!!!   There has been much speculation and hopes expressed by various companies and individuals as to if and when "things" start to return closer to some form of "normal". There are, however, too many unknowns and guesses, including about the levels of "CONSUMER CONFIDENCE" as to how if affects airlines, other nations' opening of their borders and cruise travelers' willingness to book, make payments and travel if the risks and uncertainties are too high.

 

Nice to hear from highplanesdrifters and that our posts from last summer helped to inspire some of your plans for Banff, Rocky Mountaineer rail, etc., in super scenic western Canada.  Yes, it's a great area and we loved ALL that we did and enjoyed in this region.  Plus, the Canada folks are so nice and welcoming.   It is a good guess that the U.S./Canada border will open up sooner, rather than later.   BUT, to open up and operate a large hotel in a more remote resort area is not as simple, quick, certain and easy as it might seem on the surface.  Make your reservations and plans, but be prepared to be flexible and able to adjust as conditions change and evolve.  As good as the Rocky Mountaineer rail trip is, it is still very expensive on a cost per day basis AND if they won't refund your cash payments, that would be a serious concern.  As to future "credits" for cruises or other travel, that sounds good on paper, but who knows in one or two years what will be the base travel costs, what added-on fees will be required, etc., etc.  Many unknowns now!!   

 

From the Mottley Fool website this morning, they had this headline: “Will Royal Caribbean Cruise Line Survive Coronavirus?” This website is not exactly established "credible journalism", but they raise some good questions and outline certain financial factors to consider.  

 

With this sub-head "Is this an opportunity to invest or a big risk? Maybe it's a little bit of both.", here are some of their reporting/opinion highlights: “This was a very profitable company, and it's likely to be one once again. The problem is that it could take months or even years for some form of normal to return. Even if cruising happens this summer (maybe with extensive testing before people can board), prices are depressed and many consumers simply won't want to take a cruise (especially older folks, who are core customers for the industry).  Royal Caribbean could face a cash crunch, and while it should be able to find people to lend it money, that cash will likely come at a steep interest rate. The cruise line should be able to survive the crisis, but a strategic Chapter 11 bankruptcy -- one that wipes out shareholder equity -- remains possible.”

 

And if a Chapter 11 bankruptcy happens, what about the value and protection for customer deposits and paid-in-full cruise payments or credits?? Many unknowns and questions!!??  

 

Keep up the great postings and sharing on this thread.  All very helpful and informative as we all consider our various future options . . . and when . . . and at what risk levels for our financial or health security. 

 

Full Mottley Fool reporting/details at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/05/will-royal-caribbean-cruise-survive-coronavirus.aspx

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 66,245 views:

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[TLCOhio]

Sadly, bankruptcy is a key red-flag word that concerns us.  That's why we moved in early March to get our refund for the full payment that had been made for our planned early 2021 cruise to the Galápagos Islands.  Glad that now that money is our hands, not with a cruise line.   Waiting for a refund and/or hoping to use a future cruise credit could get more questionable. 

 

From CNBC, the cable news network specializing in financial reporting, they had an important headline this morning: “Norwegian Cruise Line sees ‘substantial doubt’ about its future, warns of possible bankruptcy” with these story highlights: “Norwegian Cruise Line warned on Tuesday that it may have to seek bankruptcy protection, saying there’s 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a 'going concern' as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the industry.  Shares of the company fell more than 19% in early trading on the news.   If it cannot amend its credit agreements, the company said it is at risk of default, which would trigger immediate repayment of most of its debt and derivatives contracts. That puts it at risk of bankruptcy.”

 

From my earlier research, NCL was the weakest of the three largest cruise ship conglomerates.  Now, it seems they are at heightened risk.  Glad we are NOT waiting for a refund from that company or any cruise company. 

 

Full story at:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/norwegian-cruise-line-says-theres-substantial-doubt-about-its-ability-to-continue-as-a-going-concern.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 30,501 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358