Radiance dry dock cancelled

[didugger]

Has anyone gotten any information from carnival about the cancellation of Victory/radiance refurbish?  We are booked on a b2b in January 2021. My travel agent said she hadn’t heard anything. 
thanks

[yogibear]

See this thread. It has your answer!

 

Karen

[Cruiseboy06]

BUT THERE is no official word from Carnival

[BlerkOne]

Not at all cancelled per John Heald. The article is talking about the work stopping last March which is why the initial cruises were cancelled.

[airdale]

Sitting here on pins and needles. 

[ProgRockCruiser]

OP, you subject line is deceiving.  It looks like a statement, whereas you seem to have been trying to ask a question.

 

AFAIK, there has been nothing official released or stated by Carnival, therefore anything else you read is probably old, speculation, or just clickbait.

 

I am booked to sail on her in December, so I, too, would like confirmation of the upgrades and maintenance going ahead as planned, but I'm sure nothing much will be said until June, at the earliest - the shipyards/dry docks/whatever have to restart work, and as far I as I can tell, that may be just starting up.

[UrbishN]

7 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

OP, you subject line is deceiving.  It looks like a statement, whereas you seem to have been trying to ask a question.

 

AFAIK, there has been nothing official released or stated by Carnival, therefore anything else you read is probably old, speculation, or just clickbait.

 

I am booked to sail on her in December, so I, too, would like confirmation of the upgrades and maintenance going ahead as planned, but I'm sure nothing much will be said until June, at the earliest - the shipyards/dry docks/whatever have to restart work, and as far I as I can tell, that may be just starting up.

There are several articles coming from Spain regarding the Radiance and all recently dated . Carnival has made no announcements . I don’t think it has been cancelled but postponed until they make a decision if it is feasible financially to proceed with the refurbishment. Right now I get that, as they are not certain when they can sail again but the shipyard is open as Royals Allure of the seas arrived today for their refurbishment. ( which has been greatly reduced to only include maintenance upgrades)  . So we hang in limbo until Carnival makes a decision to proceed or not . I’m discouraged as well as I enjoy planning my cruise and can’t at this point . I located all the articles by googling 

Cadiz carnival victory and selecting the news tab and then pasting in google translate . Even though the articles are not verified , I feel Spain knows what is going on with the ship in their country . 

[BlerkOne]

Are there multiple independent articles or the same article published in multiple locations?

 

From what I've seen, it was the same information published months ago and nothing new.

[firefly333]

Personally I would be watching Mardi gras progress . Isnt it supposed to bone first? It too lost a month or two of progress..

[slavens_09]

4 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Personally I would be watching Mardi gras progress . Isnt it supposed to bone first? It too lost a month or two of progress..

Just my opinion but I think they would probably complete the Mardi Gras before the Victory.

 

Larger more efficient ship. From what I read in a recent RCI article is that their newer bigger ships break even before the less efficient older ones. I would assume the same probably holds true with Carnivals ships.

[firefly333]

12 minutes ago, slavens_09 said:

Just my opinion but I think they would probably complete the Mardi Gras before the Victory.

 

Larger more efficient ship. From what I read in a recent RCI article is that their newer bigger ships break even before the less efficient older ones. I would assume the same probably holds true with Carnivals ships.

Lol I think that's what I said. Mardi gras first. Keep a eye on it. Carnival has it going in dry dock and also behind. We agree.

 

Does carnival have any other ships in dry dock started?

[slavens_09]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Lol I think that's what I said. Mardi gras first. Keep a eye on it. Carnival has it going in dry dock and also behind. We agree.

 

Does carnival have any other ships in dry dock started?

Well Mardi Gras isn’t in dry dock I don’t think. She was floated out months ago. But yes they are still working on her.

[BlerkOne]

11 hours ago, slavens_09 said:

Just my opinion but I think they would probably complete the Mardi Gras before the Victory.

 

Larger more efficient ship. From what I read in a recent RCI article is that their newer bigger ships break even before the less efficient older ones. I would assume the same probably holds true with Carnivals ships.

 

Ships that are already paid for have a lower costs than new ships bought with financing. It takes a while to really break even. It is one of the reasons for refurbishing and transforming ships, instead of starting with a new hull.

 

Mardi Gras and Victory/Radiance are different ship building companies, difference shipyards, different countries. I think Carnival would plan on completing both. What if a second covid wave strikes one country first? You might at least stand a chance of completing the other ship. Mardi Gras is larger but also has some limitations due to size and also the LNG requirements.

[firefly333]

I'm interested in the radiance oct 2021 partial panama. I dont want to pay starting prices of 2178 for a 1a port hole on radiance which costs more than freedom earlier.

 

I have a oct cruise so cant do freedom nov 1st 2020 panama, cant do jan 2020 freedom, have a b2b starting feb 7. Only other choice with that 14 day itinerary out of Galveston is oct 2021 radiance. $2,178 to me is a lot to pay for a early saver non refundable deposit on a ship every day someone posts a new thread that carnival scraped radiance refit.

 

I guess I just wait, but I'd like to fill fall 2021 but without clarification from carnival ... patience isnt my strong suit.

[slavens_09]

17 hours ago, slavens_09 said:

Just my opinion but I think they would probably complete the Mardi Gras before the Victory.

 

Larger more efficient ship. From what I read in a recent RCI article is that their newer bigger ships break even before the less efficient older ones. I would assume the same probably holds true with Carnivals ships.

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5359/
Read the part about trouble for older ships. They plainly state the newer bigger ships break even quicker. I’m assuming he is taking into account that the older ships are paid for when talking about it.

[slavens_09]

12 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Ships that are already paid for have a lower costs than new ships bought with financing. It takes a while to really break even. It is one of the reasons for refurbishing and transforming ships, instead of starting with a new hull.

 

Mardi Gras and Victory/Radiance are different ship building companies, difference shipyards, different countries. I think Carnival would plan on completing both. What if a second covid wave strikes one country first? You might at least stand a chance of completing the other ship. Mardi Gras is larger but also has some limitations due to size and also the LNG requirements.

Below you will find a quote from the RCI CFO who I assume knows what he is talking about.

 

“What we find is for our newer ships, you need 30 percent load factors to break even, skewed to about 50 percent load factor to break even on our older ships," Liberty told analysts. What that means is that the percentage of passengers on a ship needed to break even is less for a new ship, such as Symphony of the Seas(late 2017) , than it is for an older ship, such as Grandeur of the Seas(late 1996).

 

Clearly states your opinion is incorrect. You’re welcome to keep it though.

 

From the article I referred you to.

[BlerkOne]

10 hours ago, slavens_09 said:

Below you will find a quote from the RCI CFO who I assume knows what he is talking about.

 

“What we find is for our newer ships, you need 30 percent load factors to break even, skewed to about 50 percent load factor to break even on our older ships," Liberty told analysts. What that means is that the percentage of passengers on a ship needed to break even is less for a new ship, such as Symphony of the Seas(late 2017) , than it is for an older ship, such as Grandeur of the Seas(late 1996).

 

Clearly states your opinion is incorrect. You’re welcome to keep it though.

 

From the article I referred you to.

 

IF the CFO is correct (no bets on that one). Is Grandeur paid for and/or are financing costs included in his numbers? But for this exercise, assume he is approximately correct.

 

Using basic math skills:

Symphony of the Seas - 5518 capacity x 30% = 1655.4 passengers break even

Grandeur of the Seas - 2446 capacity x 50% = 1223 passengers break even

 

1655.4 is > 1223

 

I will keep my correct opinion, thank you.

[kwokpot]

7 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

IF the CFO is correct (no bets on that one). Is Grandeur paid for and/or are financing costs included in his numbers? But for this exercise, assume he is approximately correct.

 

Using basic math skills:

Symphony of the Seas - 5518 capacity x 30% = 1655.4 passengers break even

Grandeur of the Seas - 2446 capacity x 50% = 1223 passengers break even

 

1655.4 is > 1223

 

I will keep my correct opinion, thank you.

It's more than just the # of passengers. The breath of cabin choices allowed and a newer ship brings in higher revenue per passenger. Newer ships are more fuel efficient.Scales of economy are greater. These are all factors that were enumerated by Royal's senior management. 

Edited May 24, 2020 by kwokpot

[Moviela]

I think the real answer is that no one knows. The shipyards in the EU are not really working at all. There is much to be done aboard that is not done by the ship yard, but done in the ship yard by other vendors. Things like hotel furnishings, kitchen equipment, and stagecraft fittings are accomplished by other companies. Most of the goods are manufactured to be delivered to the point of use just as they are needed. Trouble is everyone is standing by....

[BlerkOne]

Just now, kwokpot said:

It's more than just the # of passengers. The breath of cabin choices allowed and a newer ship brings in higher revenue per passenger. Newer ships are more fuel efficient.Scales of economy are greater. These are all factors that were enumerated by Royal's senior management. 

 

In other words, you are saying the CFO had no idea what he was talking about? I would have though he would include fixed and variable operation costs.

[BlerkOne]

3 minutes ago, Moviela said:

I think the real answer is that no one knows. The shipyards in the EU are not really working at all. There is much to be done aboard that is not done by the ship yard, but done in the ship yard by other vendors. Things like hotel furnishings, kitchen equipment, and stagecraft fittings are accomplished by other companies. Most of the goods are manufactured to be delivered to the point of use just as they are needed. Trouble is everyone is standing by....

 

Basically. But then nobody would have anything to post.

 

The dry dock has not been cancelled. The shipyard ceased all work and may just now be restarting.

 

 

[kwokpot]

35 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

In other words, you are saying the CFO had no idea what he was talking about? I would have though he would include fixed and variable operation costs.

Just the opposite. What I was stating was additional information they discussed about newer ships needing a lower breakeven point of 30% vs 50% load factor. 

[BlerkOne]

Just now, kwokpot said:

Just the opposite. What I was stating was additional information they discussed about newer ships needing a lower breakeven point of 30% vs 50% load factor. 

 

And so it does come down to number of passengers, as I asserted. I still didn't see any possible financing of the newer ships mentioned. No matter, this is the Carnival board, not Royal.

 

Carnival's return to service has the following ships mentioned:

Carnival Breeze, Carnival Dream, Carnival Elation, Carnival Freedom, Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic, Carnival Sensation, & Carnival Vista sailings through and including July 31, 2020

 

The newest ship, Panorama, isn't included, but Vista and Horizon are. Sensation and Elation are two of the oldest and smallest Carnival ships. Obviously there are factors other than ship's age and size.

[slavens_09]

2 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

And so it does come down to number of passengers, as I asserted. I still didn't see any possible financing of the newer ships mentioned. No matter, this is the Carnival board, not Royal.

 

Carnival's return to service has the following ships mentioned:

Carnival Breeze, Carnival Dream, Carnival Elation, Carnival Freedom, Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic, Carnival Sensation, & Carnival Vista sailings through and including July 31, 2020

 

The newest ship, Panorama, isn't included, but Vista and Horizon are. Sensation and Elation are two of the oldest and smallest Carnival ships. Obviously there are factors other than ship's age and size.

 

The Panorama is a west coast ship... They aren’t using any of their west coast ships in August. If they used a west coast ship for Aug. sailings in the Caribbean from Florida or Texas. They would not be able to reposition the ships in time to resume on the west coast. 
 

Read the article and you see you’re incorrect. But you won’t read it because it would mean you were wrong.

[slavens_09]

2 hours ago, kwokpot said:

Just the opposite. What I was stating was additional information they discussed about newer ships needing a lower breakeven point of 30% vs 50% load factor. 

They don’t understand because they won’t read the article.

 

Information is bad!