Post Covid Embarkation Ports

[jsglow]

So the San Diego thread got me thinking.  What ports will Carnival be using in the medium to long term following the return to sailing?  Now we know that they have announced that the initial 3 will be Miami, Port Canaveral and Galveston likely in that order.  But I'm thinking more long term as the 'new normal' post Covid probably causes permanent changes.  For example, we know that both San Juan and San Diego have been sent to the 'ship breakers', at least for now.  Does Mobile survive? How about Jacksonville? Or Charleston/Norfolk? Does Carnival semi-permanently (like for a couple years) park any of it's ships?  To that end, do they add any new embarkation ports to get away from the CDC such as Cozumel as was discussed over the weekend?  Discuss away.

Edited February 8, 2021 by jsglow

[ColeThornton]

No one here knows.  Like the million other questions about the future of cruising all that you are going to get is speculation and guesses.  Answers will eventually come alas not at the speed cruisers want it to.

[jsglow]

I totally get that nobody knows.  Just though it might evoke some interesting conversation, my friend. 👍

[ledges1]

1 hour ago, jsglow said:

I totally get that nobody knows.  Just though it might evoke some interesting conversation, my friend. 👍

I will give it a try. I think Carnival long term will consolidate embarkation ports to reduce cost. With ships in New Orleans and Galveston, Mobile is redundant. I live one  hour from Mobile, but N.O. is only 3 with the same destinations. This could be the same for other single ship ports.

 

I find Cozumel an interesting embarkation point from a business perspective. I do not know the demand and business dynamics. Will this open the Mexican tourist trade or be dependent on US travelers to make it work. Personally, I would not fly to Cozumel or Cancun to take a cruise. This cruise from Carnival's perspective has to make business sense, not a stopgap move to avoid the CDC. US travelers would still have to get the negative test before returning. Unless Carnival does the test on the ship, it would be difficult to comply. Of course, this could change with time.

[Indytraveler83]

Just my guess:

 

I feel like Cozumel or another foreign port would cause a few issues (I'm assuming they want to attract Americans to cruise from that port, not the local population):

1) Many Americans still travel on birth certificates and the added cost of a long international flight would be prohibitive for many folks in the US.  And to be honest, if your going to spend all that money to go to Cancun/Cozumel... why not just stay there?

2) The infrastructure likely isn't there for Carnival to homeport at most of these locations, which would cost even more money to get going, and likely wouldn't be built until after the COVID issues are over with anyways.

 

As far as US ports:

 

Carnival seems to be of the opinion that once cruising can resume, pent up demand will cause them to be very, very busy.  (They keep referencing the heavy bookings in 2021 and into 2022).  For that reason, I can't imagine them closing a busy port or keeping a ship that's in good order on the sideline.  

 

But... if they have to invest much into the port or the ship, I can see them dragging their feet opening it.  It wouldn't surprise me if the ships that require drydock before sailing get stretched out again, and if the Victory/Radiance conversion experiences more delays.

 

In short- if it's there and they don't have to spend extra money on it, they'll have it open as soon as possible.  If it requires an investment of any significance, look for Carnival to hold it back.   

[jsglow]

So everything I've heard about Cozumel is that it's a 'stopgap' situation that the local officials down there are trying to capitalize on.  Flights to Cancun are reasonable.  Hotel rooms exist. And there is ferry service.  So in theory it COULD sort of work, especially when compared to Barbados or something.

 

I agree it depends on overall demand and a bit of how the CDC allows ramp up.  I wouldn't be holding my breath in Mobile, among others.

[stobe1]

I recall an article several years ago that I read where someone from the Carnival route planning department was talking about Cancun/Calica as an embarkation port. I couldn't tell you who it was or where I read it. But he was saying how Carnival could really do some interesting Central America and northern South America 7 day itineraries from there as a launching point if they home ported a ship there. 

 

I remember going to Calica as a port of call back in the 90's on a Carnival cruise. 

 

Originating sailings from the Cancun area could be doable since it would spur demand from local Mexicans as well as Americans or Canadians that are flying to their embarkation ports anyway.

Edited February 9, 2021 by stobe1

[docruth]

Cancun? Hmmm ... let’s think on that.

 

Ok, the airport is a plus.Connections to/from and from the airport with many hotels. Restaurants and attractions are good, maybe no need for a private island? Ferry to Cozumel is rocky, bus ride to Playa del Carmen isn’t impossible, and the archeological sites/national parks are easy tour bus trips.

 

I just have a really hard time envisioning Cancun as a major international cruise port. Some cruise line will have to spend a fortune there to get a foothold, unless they get Vidanta or one of the big resort developers who already have the land to do it. A port to park monorail ... cool!

 

Great scuba, island relaxation, service in the city is excellent, tons of skilled workers. No Mexico definitely has many advantages 

 

But, Puerto Rico, Bahamas, Barbados, and the other big island ports have maritime service infrastructures, and substantial facilities/ resort accommodations, and there is not that huge a real estate pricing difference right now.

 

We’ll see.

 

Doc Ruth

 

[tidecat]

I think it comes down to how long the ships are financially viable.

 

Ecstasy would like be the first to go, as she was last sent to dry dock in October 2019, and would be due again by October 2022. I figured Carnival would use Celebration's arrival to retire Ecstasy, but so far Ecstasy is available for booking through April 2023. I would suspect they'll go through with the late 2022 dry dock and look to retire her in mid-2025, when she will be 34 years old. Don't be surprised if Carnival retires her before then, especially if the pause lasts into 2022.

 

Sensation was last sent to dry dock in January 2020. Basically she'll be 3-4 months behind Sensation out the door.

 

Ideally Carnival would have a new ship come online in time for the Summer 2025 season, assume the service of a Dream class or Vista-class ship, and send that Dream class ship to Port Canaveral or New Orleans, which allows Jacksonville or Mobile to be cut. Right now I don't see that happening unless if CSSC ("Carnival China") is a dud, and Carnival decides not to cancel the order with Fincantieri for another Vista-class ship. If there is no new ship, both ports may be cut.

 

Sunshine will be an interesting case, as she will be the first 100,000+ ton ship to hit 30 years of age. If the ship's hull stays in good shape, Carnival will try to push her out until 2030. This should be a straight 1:1 replacement.

 

Likewise I see Elation and Paradise being pushed out to 2030, especially since this is probably when the other one of Mobile or Jacksonville likely gets cut. Tampa gets a second Spirit class ship to replace its Fantasy class ship.

 

Retiring the Spirit class will be the true reckoning for Carnival in the early 2030s. This may be bad news for Tampa and Baltimore.

[stobe1]

2 hours ago, stobe1 said:

I recall an article several years ago that I read where someone from the Carnival route planning department was talking about Cancun/Calica as an embarkation port. I couldn't tell you who it was or where I read it. But he was saying how Carnival could really do some interesting Central America and northern South America 7 day itineraries from there as a launching point if they home ported a ship there. 

 

I remember going to Calica as a port of call back in the 90's on a Carnival cruise. 

 

Originating sailings from the Cancun area could be doable since it would spur demand from local Mexicans as well as Americans or Canadians that are flying to their embarkation ports anyway.

 

 

Now that I think about it, it may have been one of the little vignettes that John Heald hosted on the Carnival Channel on the shipboard TV where he did little comedic interviews with various people from within Carnival. 

 

I think they were called "Whatever We Are Going to Call These".

Edited February 9, 2021 by stobe1

[DAllenTCY]

In the past San Diego has home ported many ships.....(recent to past in this list)....Holland America, Disney, Carnival, RCCL, and Princess.  One summer we kept the Carnival Elation sailing 3 and 4 night voyages to Ensenada, MX.

 

It remains a viable alternative for those ships that were scheduled to sail to Alaska via Vancouver and Seattle.

 

If Mexico and Hawaii are open for sailings this summer, as well as California coastal trips....we can join with Los Angeles and San Francisco as alternatives.

 

David

 

[BoozinCroozin]

This is for Caribbean, Bermuda, and Bahama cruises. I see Tampa and Jacksonville going away. New Orleans, Mobile, and Galveston are redundant. I think one of them is viable. I am not sure Norfolk makes sense if Baltimore and NY are still open. 

[Roz]

12 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

This is for Caribbean, Bermuda, and Bahama cruises. I see Tampa and Jacksonville going away. New Orleans, Mobile, and Galveston are redundant. I think one of them is viable. I am not sure Norfolk makes sense if Baltimore and NY are still open. 

 

Tampa gives FL a port on the Gulf side, but I understand the bridge limits what ships can go under it.  I think Galveston is a PITA port unless you live in TX and can drive there. 

 

@DAllenTCY, San Diego is one of the easiest ports to sail out of and one of my favorites.  So much to see and do before and after the cruise.  I can walk or Uber wherever I need to go. 

[jsglow]

18 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

Tampa gives FL a port on the Gulf side, but I understand the bridge limits what ships can go under it.  I think Galveston is a PITA port unless you live in TX and can drive there. 

 

@DAllenTCY, San Diego is one of the easiest ports to sail out of and one of my favorites.  So much to see and do before and after the cruise.  I can walk or Uber wherever I need to go. 

 

We found Galvestion 'fine', especially if you fly into Hobby.  Bush?  No way.  Galveston is absolutely a core embarkation port for Carnival and always will be.  Probably #2 overall.

 

The problem with all California ports is the limited itinerary they can run.  So it will always be a regional draw, at best, in my opinion.  Obviously Long Beach will remain #1 out there.  Is there room for a 2nd? Time will tell.

 

Certainly much of this discussion centers on how big the cruising industry actually is once Covid is in the distant rear view mirror. 

[crewsweeper]

14 hours ago, stobe1 said:

 

 

Now that I think about it, it may have been one of the little vignettes that John Heald hosted on the Carnival Channel on the shipboard TV where he did little comedic interviews with various people from within Carnival. 

 

I think they were called "Whatever We Are Going to Call These".

Why would you home port from Calica's gravel pit when Puerta Maya is just across the channel?

 

Back in the 90s there was only 1 cruise pier on Coz so Calica was often used for Mexican cruises.

[crewsweeper]

I think that eventually you'll see all the ports that stopped cruises in 2020 return.  Not this year or next and maybe a few years further down the road once the country and world open up as COVID treatments and vaccines spread, lessening the threat of death for some and the easily transmittal of COVID.

[tidecat]

9 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

This is for Caribbean, Bermuda, and Bahama cruises. I see Tampa and Jacksonville going away. New Orleans, Mobile, and Galveston are redundant. I think one of them is viable. I am not sure Norfolk makes sense if Baltimore and NY are still open. 

Carnival will keep one of New Orleans or Mobile going forward. Mobile is closer for those in GA, East and Middle TN, KY, IN, and parts of IL. New Orleans is closer to west TN, AR, MO, IA, and the rest of IL. Once you get far enough north the difference between the two isn't significant, but there is a huge difference between New Orleans and Galveston in terms of driving distance from the Mid-South and Midwest. Short Western Caribbean cruises aren't really possible from the East Coast north of Fort Lauderdale/Miami.

 

Long-term, Interstate 69 being completed from Indianapolis to Memphis will make it easier to capture more non-flying cruisers from Indiana and even Michigan, as they will have a direct connection to I-55 in Northern Mississippi.

 

Texas itself has a larger population than Florida, and Galveston is also within a day's drive and closer than New Orleans to Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Wichita, and even parts of Northwest Arkansas. 

[Tippyton]

All good thoughts peeps!  Captain Obvious too!

[DAllenTCY]

San Diego will continue to be a home port for Holland America and Disney through 2023.

 

One of the more novel itineraries that was scheduled and didn't happen were California coastal cruises.

 

David

 

[embarkation75]

Educated guess based on recent and historical trends (that's all we have at this point) says Mobile is the most likely to be abandoned next. This is then followed by Jacksonville, San Francisco, and Charleston as they suffer from either proximity issues to larger embarkation ports or is seasonal only.