NCL is Suing the State of Florida over the State's Covid Policy

[WarfRatWA]

14 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

You are incorrect. In todays paper it says. Not allowing those under 12 that are not vaccinated is discrimination. opening them up to a lawsuit. read it today in the news.

NCL wouldn't be discriminating based on age, they would be discriminating based on vaccine status.  I don't think vaccine status is a protected class. 

[KennyFla]

21 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Just a few thoughts:

 

1. Follow the money

2. It is irrational to make any generalizations about cruising based on this forum. Last I read, we represent less than 5% of cruisers. I do not believe that the rose colored predictions of industry demand are anything more than appeasement.

3. Follow the money.

4. I suspect this lawsuit has very little to do with the difference between 95-100% vaccination onboard. NCL doesn't care about you more than Celebrity cares about it's customers. There is a reason NCL is standing alone. 

5. Follow the money

 

You can start to follow the money here, but remember to read between the lines. Goldman Sacs loaned NCL millions and then immediately changed their rating to buy. Wallstreet doesn't play fair. 

Financial Results :: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) (nclhltd.com)

Guess I'm not following.  Are you saying NCL is looking for an excuse not to cruise?  Afraid of what an outbreak will do?

[WarfRatWA]

25 minutes ago, jimbo5544 said:

I cannot find the 2nd quarter call, but here are the numbers for March.  

 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/05/06/2224344/24500/en/Norwegian-Cruise-Line-Holdings-Reports-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update.html

I don't see "dire straits" in those numbers.  2nd QTR call might offer more clarity, but I don't  think its happened yet.

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, KennyFla said:

Guess I'm not following.  Are you saying NCL is looking for an excuse not to cruise?  Afraid of what an outbreak will do?

 

I don't think NCL is any more afraid of an outbreak than CCL or RCL.

I don't think NCL cares about keeping it's customer safe more than CCL or RCL.

I do believe NCL is postured more precariously that either from a financial standpoint.

I think there is something much much bigger at play here.

 

Ask yourselves, why is NCL standing alone? Scapegoating works both ways.

 

This is ALL about the money,

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't think NCL is any more afraid of an outbreak than CCL or RCL.

I don't think NCL cares about keeping it's customer safe more than CCL or RCL.

I do believe NCL is postured more precariously that either from a financial standpoint.

I think there is something much much bigger at play here.

 

Ask yourselves, why is NCL standing alone? Scapegoating works both ways.

 

This is ALL about the money,

If they want to have some financial gain. CRUISE! Stop playing politics.

[KennyFla]

Cruise Industry News just posted a piece on this, here are some thoughts:

 

Under Florida’s ban, Norwegian will be forced to modify or cancel the itinerary of the Norwegian Gem because its itineraries embark from Miami, Florida, and its passengers are expecting 100 percent vaccination of passengers and crew onboard.

 

Where is the study showing how many of those customers will cancel with a 95% vaccinated cruise?

 

• Norwegian has attested to the CDC under the potential threat of criminal penalties that at least 95 percent of passengers and 95 percent of its crew on its upcoming cruise “will be confirmed as fully vaccinated prior to sailing.” Norwegian planned – and continues to plan – to “confirm” passengers’ and the crew’s COVID-19 vaccination status through documentation, which Del Rio said is to be “the only reliable way of confirming vaccination status in this context.”

 

You can do both of those and meet Florida law.

 

• The Florida Ban, according to Del Rio, may also result in a loss or diminishment of employment for Norwegian’s contract workers at the PortMiami terminal (well over 100 on a turnaround day), as well as the employees working transit and hospitality in the area

 

The only ones keeping NCL's ships docked are NCL.

 

• Del Rio attributed the demand for Norwegian cruises in large part to its plan for 100% vaccination. Del Rio noted that unless Norwegian is able to verify vaccination status, its ability to attract and assure its passengers will be severely undercut. Additionally, requiring full vaccination for 100 percent of passengers and crew is consistent with the vaccination protocols required by many foreign ports where Norwegian ships are scheduled to visit.

 

Again, you can verify vaccination status.  As far as ports, on other lines there may be ports where unvaccinated guests can not leave the ship.  That is explained upfront.

[Karaboudjan]

31 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't think NCL is any more afraid of an outbreak than CCL or RCL.

I don't think NCL cares about keeping it's customer safe more than CCL or RCL.

I do believe NCL is postured more precariously that either from a financial standpoint.

I think there is something much much bigger at play here.

 

Ask yourselves, why is NCL standing alone? Scapegoating works both ways.

 

This is ALL about the money,

I agree this is about money but I'm not sure if there is anything bigger in play.  A few months ago the CDC had cruising blocked and demanded that the cruise lines come up with plans to restart.  NCL decided that 100% vaccinated was the way to go, presumably as the best chance to appease the CDC, to attract skittish customers or both.  It has since become apparent that 100% vaccination is not necessary, but now NCL cannot alter their requirements without alienating some percentage of people who booked cruises with the expectation that they would be 100% vaccinated and presumably losing some of those bookings.

[BermudaBound2014]

20 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

I agree this is about money but I'm not sure if there is anything bigger in play.  A few months ago the CDC had cruising blocked and demanded that the cruise lines come up with plans to restart.  NCL decided that 100% vaccinated was the way to go, presumably as the best chance to appease the CDC, to attract skittish customers or both.  It has since become apparent that 100% vaccination is not necessary, but now NCL cannot alter their requirements without alienating some percentage of people who booked cruises with the expectation that they would be 100% vaccinated and presumably losing some of those bookings.

 

It's certainly possible you are correct.

 

However; I do not believe NCL is worried about alienating the 12 customers who are booked on cruises between now and October 31st.  Kidding of course, but in the grand scheme of things, there just aren't many people booked in this short time frame to alter things one way or the other. And according to their own pole, 20% of the customers would be fine with a change. 

 

Time will tell of course, but I have not wavered in my original predictions made last April/May. This play seems to fall in line with 'big news coming'. I could be wrong, but right now I'm on the short sell side of the trade.

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by BermudaBound2014

[KennyFla]

22 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

It's certainly possible you are correct.

 

However; I do not believe NCL is worried about alienating the 12 customers who are booked on cruises between now and October 31st.  Kidding of course, but in the grand scheme of things, there just aren't many people booked in this short time frame to alter things one way or the other. And according to their own pole, 20% of the customers would be fine with a change. 

 

Time will tell of course, but I have not wavered in my original predictions made last April/May. This play seems to fall in line with 'big news coming'. I could be wrong, but right now I'm on the short sell side of the trade.

 

The Canadians are also in an uproar because NCL says they will not accept AZ or "mixed" vaccine doses.

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, KennyFla said:

The Canadians are also in an uproar because NCL says they will not accept AZ or "mixed" vaccine doses.

 

And again, I challenge everyone to ask themselves.... why is NCL standing alone? Are the other cruise lines sailing from Alaska accepting the mixed dose or is this another NCL thing? What possible motives could NCL have? 

 

In order to follow the money we must think outside the box.

[aubreyc1988]

I think there are a lot of things at play here which the general public doesn't have knowledge of yet. This isn't about the summer sailings. This may be more about what happens come fall/winter if the variants become a problem for cruiselines...NCL might be looking more "Long term solutions for the worst case scenario" or something like that. 

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, WarfRatWA said:

I don't see "dire straits" in those numbers.  2nd QTR call might offer more clarity, but I don't  think its happened yet.

i will not belabor the point.  190 mill burn rate times at least 6 months comes to just shy 1.2 billion which was the equity listed.  Without knowing their payback or timing on the notes and options puts them darn close to their value.  Get anywhere near that and one of the ratings firms seeing everybody else sailing and Frank is playing hardball and see what hope s next.  No ceo would sign up for that.  In my book = dire straits.  Maybe in yours it means their stock would be listed as a buy (closer to junk bond value, but the point is what it is).  

[At Sea At Peace]

3 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Under the CDC's return to sail framework, it's 5% of passengers/staff onboard, not 5% of the ship's capacity.

 

Isn't 98% of crew and 95% of passengers?

[jimbo5544]

11 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

And again, I challenge everyone to ask themselves.... why is NCL standing alone? Are the other cruise lines sailing from Alaska accepting the mixed dose or is this another NCL thing? What possible motives could NCL have? 

 

In order to follow the money we must think outside the box.

Like what exactly.  

[KennyFla]

12 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

And again, I challenge everyone to ask themselves.... why is NCL standing alone? Are the other cruise lines sailing from Alaska accepting the mixed dose or is this another NCL thing? What possible motives could NCL have? 

 

In order to follow the money we must think outside the box.

As they say in the movies, "What is the endgame?"

Are they trying to be bought out?

[jimbo5544]

53 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

I agree this is about money but I'm not sure if there is anything bigger in play.  A few months ago the CDC had cruising blocked and demanded that the cruise lines come up with plans to restart.  NCL decided that 100% vaccinated was the way to go, presumably as the best chance to appease the CDC, to attract skittish customers or both.  It has since become apparent that 100% vaccination is not necessary, but now NCL cannot alter their requirements without alienating some percentage of people who booked cruises with the expectation that they would be 100% vaccinated and presumably losing some of those bookings.

To me that seems a heck of a lot easier than suing a state to change a law that protects that states citizens rights….but that is just my view.

[jimbo5544]

1 minute ago, KennyFla said:

As they say in the movies, "What is the endgame?"

Are they trying to be bought out?

Waiting for someone to bring that up.  That certainly is one idea, the second is to sell off something else of value.

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, KennyFla said:

Cruise Industry News just posted a piece on this, here are some thoughts:

 

Under Florida’s ban, Norwegian will be forced to modify or cancel the itinerary of the Norwegian Gem because its itineraries embark from Miami, Florida, and its passengers are expecting 100 percent vaccination of passengers and crew onboard.

 

Where is the study showing how many of those customers will cancel with a 95% vaccinated cruise?

 

• Norwegian has attested to the CDC under the potential threat of criminal penalties that at least 95 percent of passengers and 95 percent of its crew on its upcoming cruise “will be confirmed as fully vaccinated prior to sailing.” Norwegian planned – and continues to plan – to “confirm” passengers’ and the crew’s COVID-19 vaccination status through documentation, which Del Rio said is to be “the only reliable way of confirming vaccination status in this context.”

 

You can do both of those and meet Florida law.

 

• The Florida Ban, according to Del Rio, may also result in a loss or diminishment of employment for Norwegian’s contract workers at the PortMiami terminal (well over 100 on a turnaround day), as well as the employees working transit and hospitality in the area

 

The only ones keeping NCL's ships docked are NCL.

 

• Del Rio attributed the demand for Norwegian cruises in large part to its plan for 100% vaccination. Del Rio noted that unless Norwegian is able to verify vaccination status, its ability to attract and assure its passengers will be severely undercut. Additionally, requiring full vaccination for 100 percent of passengers and crew is consistent with the vaccination protocols required by many foreign ports where Norwegian ships are scheduled to visit.

 

Again, you can verify vaccination status.  As far as ports, on other lines there may be ports where unvaccinated guests can not leave the ship.  That is explained upfront.

Nice post

[JamieLogical]

7 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Isn't 98% of crew and 95% of passengers?

 

I believe it was changed to 95% for both, but I would have to go back and re-read it. You are correct that it was initially 98%.

 

Edit: Found it. It's now 95% of crew and passengers:

 

Option in Lieu of a Simulated Voyage
In lieu of conducting a simulated voyage, cruise ship operator responsible officials, at their discretion, may sign and submit to CDC an attestation under 18 U.S.C. § 1001 that 95 percent of crew (excluding any newly embarking crew in quarantine) are fully vaccinated and submit to CDC a clear and specific vaccination plan and timeline to limit cruise ship sailings to 95 percent of passengers who have been verified by the cruise ship operator as fully vaccinated prior to sailing.

 

Edited July 15, 2021 by JamieLogical