3 more ships to be sold from Carnival CORP, including two Costa

[toad455]

Don't see the Paradise or Elation being sold yet. Legend is already headed to Europe for 2024, so Carnival would be without a ship for Tampa in 2024. Unless they plan to axe Jacksonville cruises soon? Could be the two former Costa ships that were supposed to switch over to Carnival China. The third is probably AIDA's oldest ship.

Edited December 21, 2022 by toad455

[Joebucks]

7 hours ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

This most likely don’t have the funds to convert them, so they’d rather sell them. The third ship is probably one of Hollands left or Aurora sadly. 

 

Carnival doesn't "have" the funds to do a lot of the things they want, but that's irrelevant. They can get financing if they can show the investment will bring a return. When they get rid of ships, that is saying that the ship just isn't needed. 

[jsglow]

1 hour ago, Joebucks said:

 

Carnival doesn't "have" the funds to do a lot of the things they want, but that's irrelevant. They can get financing if they can show the investment will bring a return. When they get rid of ships, that is saying that the ship just isn't needed. 

100% correct.  Carnival has plenty of credit access for any idea that represents a good investment.

[CruiseAdict218]

2 hours ago, Joebucks said:

 

Carnival doesn't "have" the funds to do a lot of the things they want, but that's irrelevant. They can get financing if they can show the investment will bring a return. When they get rid of ships, that is saying that the ship just isn't needed. 

I guess we will see which two then, if that’s the case then both are fairly big and not that old why not send them to Carnival.

 

I get what you mean if it was say AIDAaura or the last two Rs (HAL) but to get rid of two decent sized ships is kinda surprising. 

[Beezo]

10 minutes ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

I guess we will see which two then, if that’s the case then both are fairly big and not that old why not send them to Carnival.

 

I get what you mean if it was say AIDAaura or the last two Rs (HAL) but to get rid of two decent sized ships is kinda surprising. 

Size vs Cost.  If they wanted to pull the Magica and Fortuna over to Carnival, they would have. Those two ships would need the Sunshine Program and the cost benefit probably isn't there anymore and can get a quick cash infusion by selling rather than investing. Carnival CORP needs the cash NOW.

 

They were clear it was two Costa Ships.  My guess the third ships is either AIDAaura (2003), Carnival Elation (1998), Carnival Paradise (1998), Volendam (1999), Zaandam (2000), Aurora (2000), or Pacific Explorer (2007).  I think ALL of these will leave the fleet regardless of order within 3-5 years MAX.

 

Brian

[tidecat]

Pacific Explorer was actually built in 1997 as Dawn Princess, not in 2007. I'd probably give her another 4-5 years since that refurbishment was only done five years ago.

 

AIDAaura should come up for drydock soon given she turns 20 next year. It's also the last in AIDA's fleet that is smaller than the Sphinx class. It's also a good size for a secondary operator.

 

Aurora would certainly be a justifiable disposal as P&O has added two Excel ships and roughly 10,400 lower berths (Iona, Arvia), while the two ships disposed of in 2019-2020 have less than 4,000 lower berths (Oriana, Oceana)

[Purvis1231]

Carnival stock is still way down, debt is high, revenue is not catching-up to expenditures and debt servicing so who really knows the future of Carnival. I suspect more major changes will be coming in the next few years. Thankfully bookings are high. I hope Carnival will make through this, but I am not sure it will avoid some sort of debt restructuring 

Edited December 22, 2022 by Purvis1231
typo

[dolphinsfan246]

My question now is WHO bought them? Are we really about to see a ship like Costa Magica sitting in the scrapyard OR did a smaller line like Margaritaville just get a big addition? Will be interesting to see. 

[WhaleTailFlCruiser]

14 hours ago, MeganGC1983 said:

Something must be “wrong” or something with the Magica. Carnival really wanted her and the Luminosa from the beginning, but then they switched. And now she’s set to be sold. I wonder what’s really going on there. 

 

I feel like there has to be something wrong with her for them to completely scrap plans to bring her over. Surly they could have easily found a spot for her. 

[WhaleTailFlCruiser]

7 hours ago, toad455 said:

Don't see the Paradise or Elation being sold yet. Legend is already headed to Europe for 2024, so Carnival would be without a ship for Tampa in 2024. Unless they plan to axe Jacksonville cruises soon? Could be the two former Costa ships that were supposed to switch over to Carnival China. The third is probably AIDA's oldest ship.

 

I doubt they are going to leave Tampa without a ship when Tampa cruises are so popular. 

[WhaleTailFlCruiser]

4 hours ago, Beezo said:

Size vs Cost.  If they wanted to pull the Magica and Fortuna over to Carnival, they would have. Those two ships would need the Sunshine Program and the cost benefit probably isn't there anymore and can get a quick cash infusion by selling rather than investing. Carnival CORP needs the cash NOW.

 

They were clear it was two Costa Ships.  My guess the third ships is either AIDAaura (2003), Carnival Elation (1998), Carnival Paradise (1998), Volendam (1999), Zaandam (2000), Aurora (2000), or Pacific Explorer (2007).  I think ALL of these will leave the fleet regardless of order within 3-5 years MAX.

 

Brian

 

I doubt Paradise leaves for a long time. 

[Nunagoras]

19 hours ago, jsglow said:

Yep. But it certainly represents more of the 'right sizing' of the Costa fleet. At some point you get so small that you may as well become a Carnival subsidiary. (Look, all these Costa plans/announcements aren't independent. There's a strategy here that's being implemented.  They just pull the curtain slowly.)

In order to understand Costa's fate it is worth to understand how the European cruise market has evolved on the last 20 years.

 

Back in 2002; Costa was the definite mainstream top cruise line in Europe. Cruising for most continental EU citizens was basically Costa. And Costa was owned by German based "AIDA Club Holidays", such a mostly land based club holidays with a cruise venture in Germany for the Germans and another on Italy for the global markets. I'd say; they have no real competitors at that time. Pullmantur and TUI were too small to count. RCI and NCL were little to even existent on our markets of the time. P&O, Princess and Cunard were mostly an UK sort of thing... And there was that "smallish" MSC business with 3-5 relatively small ships at the time. Times were promising for Costa...

 

Then MSC started to grow to become current definite top leader on the mainstream. TUI and Pulmantur become part of the RCI's umbrella, AIDA and Costa joined the Carnival force and the mainstream American lines finally discovered Europe. The market had a huge shift... And Europeans became more demanding. They don't accept Costa's 3 starish cruises anymore. MSC, with a solid 4*, touching the 4*+ EU land hotel quality product has basically eaten pretty much all the formerly Costa Business, except perhaps those youth party like cruises elsewhere. Pretty much all the formerly Costa TA parters where I live are now solid MSC cruises partners. MSC has 21 ships to date and counting... The Germans on AIDA are more likely to leave the cruise industry now than to renew Carnival's partnership, me thinks... So, now that Europe is mainly an MSC plus American mainstream and Premium lines sort of thing; me thinks Costa has its fate well marked for the next 5 years to come: It will be finished and her ships redeployed as "Carnival Fun Italian Style". Perhaps some of them will ultimately to be redeployed for the classic mega-ship European itineraries... But I don't expect something else other than that. Europeans want Premium, not baseline, this is the trend here. Carnival group will need to adapt things out. I see ships like the brand new Princess Sun as having a huge success here. Not so much for the Costa product anymore.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Nunagoras

[CarnivalShips480]

17 hours ago, toad455 said:

Don't see the Paradise or Elation being sold yet. Legend is already headed to Europe for 2024, so Carnival would be without a ship for Tampa in 2024. Unless they plan to axe Jacksonville cruises soon? Could be the two former Costa ships that were supposed to switch over to Carnival China. The third is probably AIDA's oldest ship.

 

9 hours ago, WhaleTailFlCruiser said:

 

I doubt they are going to leave Tampa without a ship when Tampa cruises are so popular. 

Paradise is scheduled to be in Tampa for 2024 doing 4+5 days. Pride is scheduled to be doing the 7 days from now to April 2023, November 2023 to April 2024. Legend is scheduled to do 7 days starting in November 2024. There are no less cruises scheduled than normal. Not sure where the idea came from that Tampa would be without a ship.

[jsglow]

That is a super detailed and interesting analysis @Nunagoras.  Thank you so very much.

 

And I have a 'dumb American' question. Is it your expectation that the American mainstream lines will carry mostly American passengers doing their European cruise meaning that berths will always be limited as that is truly a 'once/twice in a lifetime' product for the vast majority of US citizens?  As an example, our Pride cruise out of Rome last fall was 100% American.

[CarnivalShips480]

On 12/21/2022 at 10:03 AM, MeganGC1983 said:

Something must be “wrong” or something with the Magica. Carnival really wanted her and the Luminosa from the beginning, but then they switched. And now she’s set to be sold. I wonder what’s really going on there. 

 

10 hours ago, WhaleTailFlCruiser said:

 

I feel like there has to be something wrong with her for them to completely scrap plans to bring her over. Surly they could have easily found a spot for her. 

Its just what they needed changed. In 2021, there was more demand for another Carnival ship. Remember how it was supposed to get a new funnel, whole Sunshine transformation, new name. But then things changed with Australia not yet restarting, Ecstasy and Sensation "needing" to leave the fleet. Then the need for the transfer changed. Now Carnival needed a new ship to fill in the hole, as Spirit moved to cover Freedom, Freedom to Elation, Elation to Ecstasy. Magica wasn't the right fit for Australia and Alaska. Even with the full Carnival refurbishment (which Carnival was in no financial position to afford) Magica would have been more of a Caribbean ship, to add new cruises. They then looked at a ship that was a better fit. Luminosa! It being a Spirit class made it great for Alaska and Australia. So there is nothing wrong about Magica, only what was needed was changed and Luminosa is a better fit.

[Nunagoras]

19 minutes ago, jsglow said:

That is a super detailed and interesting analysis @Nunagoras.  Thank you so very much.

 

And I have a 'dumb American' question. Is it your expectation that the American mainstream lines will carry mostly American passengers doing their European cruise meaning that berths will always be limited as that is truly a 'once/twice in a lifetime' product for the vast majority of US citizens?  As an example, our Pride cruise out of Rome last fall was 100% American.

No. While some sailings might to be 100% US citizens, on most ones things will most likely to be very international in mind. To give you an idea: On my unique RCI's Oasis class sailing, actually on the Allure, we had more or less 25% Italians, 25% Spanish, 25% US, and the others 25% from elsewhere, mostly from EU countries. What may very well to succeed is that by the most part Americans will be more likely to accept the 3 starish CCL product, while the Europeans will simply go more with MSC or the other 4* and above products out there. Considering that coming to Europe is not cheap for Americans due to the airline tickets, to take a Carnival cruise may to make economical sense more than anything else.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Nunagoras

[CarnivalShips480]

I think its also that Carnival cruisers can stay on our line to do Europe, and go on the ships we know are fun, not worry about how other lines will be.

[Essiesmom]

And I wonder if some prior analysis at Carnival CCL could have led to bringing Magic’s and Fortuna over, with the Carnival modifications, instead of the rebirth of the Destiny ships.  EM

[CarnivalShips480]

Maybe they don't think there is a place for them in the Carnival fleet. I think Carnival should take the hint from all of us that we want those ships!

[CruiseAdict218]

4 hours ago, Nunagoras said:

The Germans on AIDA are more likely to leave the cruise industry now than to renew Carnival's partnership, me thinks...

I'm just curious what you mean by this? 

[Nunagoras]

2 hours ago, CruiseAdict218 said:

I'm just curious what you mean by this? 

AIDA Cruises is a partnership between Carnival Group and a German business called "AIDA Club". AIDA works like an exclusive membership sort of business. The ones whom pay their membership fees will have the right to book elsewhere in their portfolio at a set price and at a certain terms and conditions. Most of those enjoying these benefits in Germany are doing so as part of their employment pay package. Problem is: Everywhere else work relations are more and more temporary and otherwise, Germans want more flexibility on their holiday experience, booking online, and enjoying more affordable experiences. Also; after the pandemic there is a trend towards land holidays instead of cruises there. Either way; club holidays are having such a decline in demand year after year, Europe wise, including Germany. AIDA announced a big restructuring during the pandemic. I wouldn't be surprised to see AIDA out of the cruising industry in the next 5 to 10 years to come, or at least their product as being highly modified.

[da_v]

I think Costa is numbered in Europe. The fleet is getting smaller and with Carnival having Aida and P&O you still have a share in Europe.

 

I think if the Luminosa shows as a success then re-deploying them under the Carnival name allows to update or expand the fleet at a lower price. 

 

Personally I would not be shocked if you see the Partnership for Mainland China to change and the Atlantica and Mediterranea are given back to Carnival in exchange for some larger ships and maybe be used as a replacement for some of the Fantasy class ships? 

[RD64]

Nunagoras

 

I whole heartedly agree with your analysis of the European market since 2002. Do you have any insight / opinions on the South American market as well? This appears to be another market where MSC has overtaken Costa. And let us not forget, South America is where Costa initially started in 1947.

On another point regarding passenger demographics on European cruises… I have sailed Holland America (Barcelona to Venice), Princess (Barcelona to Venice), and RCL (Venice to Venice). On all three of those cruises, Americans were certainly in the minority. Anything leaving from Barcelona in the summer - particularly August - will have a high percentage of Spaniards. On these cruises you will definitely find Europeans in the majority - but the rest of the world will also be onboard.

 

One of my most memorable experiences was on HAL hosting a “Commonwealth Luncheon” - Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, India, Barbados, Jamaica were all represented.

 

Carnival in Europe (in my opinion) would appeal to those who want an American experience in Europe without having to expose themselves to different cultures. As someone posted - we want the same kind of fun. Sadly this is what Carnival has done to the Venezia - dumbing it down into a Disneyesque experience of Europe.

 

[UPNYGuy]

1 hour ago, RD64 said:

Sadly this is what Carnival has done to the Venezia - dumbing it down into a Disneyesque experience of Europe.

 

Carnival is supposedly keeping Venizia as is, and adding the standard carnival things to it (guys burgers etc)

[tidecat]

2 hours ago, UPNYGuy said:

 

Carnival is supposedly keeping Venizia as is, and adding the standard carnival things to it (guys burgers etc)

Venezia and Firenze were always intended to be representations of their namesake cities - they will now do that for the American market instead of the Chinese market.