Price drop (6 months out)

[jeanlyon]

I booked my October cruise on Aurora 2 years ago.  It was a move from a Covid affected cruise.  £1745 pp for 19 nights.  It's been sold out and then on again, then sold out.  Last time it came on, it was £2600pp for the same cabin.  So I think we are fine.  However, not booking early ever again.  Will wait and take a late one.

[zap99]

44 minutes ago, Cathygh said:

You are moving the deposit to another cruise and then back again, if they allow it, and then you don't lose the deposit.

 

 

But you have to move it to a more expensive cruise and you can only move it once. They aren't stupid, but it appears that I am for booking early. I have just been looking at next year. Nothing tempting at those prices. I expect some reductions, so will hold on.

[zap99]

18 hours ago, Selbourne said:

Personally, I wouldn’t cancel. Aside from the fact that the gain is relatively small, the price may drop a lot more in the future and you might be better doing it then. The biggest price drops seem to be after balance due date (presumably as some of those who paid small deposits have second thoughts and cancel) which I appreciate doesn’t help you if you have already booked. This is a reason why many of us who used to book a long way out (at launch) are now holding back from doing so. We’ve secured a great price on a July cruise on Britannia by booking the week after balance due date had passed. If the gain was more significant I would cancel and rebook now. But  as your net gain (after loss of deposit) is a small percentage of the cruise cost, if it was me I would hold tight and keep checking. You run the risk that this may be the lowest price now, but if it does drop even more you might be kicking yourself. 

That's what we are doing. We may cancel and rebook, but not until nearer to final balance date.

[No pager thank you]

1 hour ago, zap99 said:

But you have to move it to a more expensive cruise and you can only move it once. They aren't stupid, but it appears that I am for booking early. I have just been looking at next year. Nothing tempting at those prices. I expect some reductions, so will hold on.

Returning to your previous answer Zap, I suppose it depends on:

 

1) If you want to go on another P&O cruise?

2) If there is a good deal on i.e., that you can transfer the booking you don't want in to.

 

I believe I am correct in saying that you can transfer to a cruise before the one you are moving is due to depart, or up to 12 months later in most cases on select price. 

 

Therefore, say, for example, the OP poster wanted to go on a late deal in a month or two, or hadn't booked for next year and wanted to, there isn't anything stopping them from switching to either of these options. They would then get the better deal, plus the reduced price on the current one by rebooking it.  

 

I do agree with the points made that to reduce "losses," its a good idea to either wait, or if you definitely want a particular itinerary/date go for an on board booking, as the outlay is only £50pp.

 

 

 

 

 

[Selbourne]

1 hour ago, Cathygh said:

You are moving the deposit to another cruise and then back again, if they allow it, and then you don't lose the deposit.

 

BTW I had a call from my TA last week about a cruise I have on Arcadia. They told me the price had dropped and obc added so it worked out cheaper to cancel then re book. I also saved money because my original booking was a saver fare and I had booked EA grade, as I knew the locatioons of any of those would be fine. I rebooked a select fare, ED cabin which I could select myself and saved another load of money. The savings and obc will cover most of my spending money. Happy Days. 

I had to do it really quickly as it was the day before final payment, we had already paid but P&O refunded us in a couple of days. I wish I had remembered the move cruise and back again trick!

That’s clever. I hadn’t thought of that!

[Megabear2]

23 minutes ago, No pager thank you said:

Returning to your previous answer Zap, I suppose it depends on:

 

1) If you want to go on another P&O cruise?

2) If there is a good deal on i.e., that you can transfer the booking you don't want in to.

 

I believe I am correct in saying that you can transfer to a cruise before the one you are moving is due to depart, or up to 12 months later in most cases on select price. 

 

Therefore, say, for example, the OP poster wanted to go on a late deal in a month or two, or hadn't booked for next year and wanted to, there isn't anything stopping them from switching to either of these options. They would then get the better deal, plus the reduced price on the current one by rebooking it.  

 

I do agree with the points made that to reduce "losses," its a good idea to either wait, or if you definitely want a particular itinerary/date go for an on board booking, as the outlay is only £50pp.

 

 

 

 

 

The booking you switch to has to cost more than the one you are moving from. 

[Selbourne]

48 minutes ago, zap99 said:

But you have to move it to a more expensive cruise and you can only move it once. They aren't stupid, but it appears that I am for booking early. I have just been looking at next year. Nothing tempting at those prices. I expect some reductions, so will hold on.

I think that’s wise. We only have one P&O cruise booked for next year, which was under our target £100 pppn for a balcony cabin on a Select fare with free parking, so even if it does drop it won’t drop by a vast amount.
 

I have, however, just booked a second 14 night Cunard cruise for next year and that was considerably cheaper than the other 14 night Cunard cruise that we booked at launch. Interestingly, the first cruise is currently even more than we are paying, but I shall be keeping a close eye on it between now and launch. The challenge will be that we paid a big deposit and we have to have an accessible cabin (of which there are only 2 at the grade we have booked), so we may have to stick with it. 

[zap99]

2 hours ago, No pager thank you said:

Returning to your previous answer Zap, I suppose it depends on:

 

1) If you want to go on another P&O cruise?

2) If there is a good deal on i.e., that you can transfer the booking you don't want in to.

 

I believe I am correct in saying that you can transfer to a cruise before the one you are moving is due to depart, or up to 12 months later in most cases on select price. 

 

Therefore, say, for example, the OP poster wanted to go on a late deal in a month or two, or hadn't booked for next year and wanted to, there isn't anything stopping them from switching to either of these options. They would then get the better deal, plus the reduced price on the current one by rebooking it.  

 

I do agree with the points made that to reduce "losses," its a good idea to either wait, or if you definitely want a particular itinerary/date go for an on board booking, as the outlay is only £50pp.

 

 

 

 

 

You have to move it to a more expensive cruise and can only do it once. You can't move your booking and then move it back.

[Cheshire Blue]

On 5/13/2023 at 9:16 PM, daiB said:

Did you book on day one or sometime later?

 

8 months out 

 

Not sure it matters 

[Cheshire Blue]

22 hours ago, Cathygh said:

You are moving the deposit to another cruise and then back again, if they allow it, and then you don't lose the deposit.

 

BTW I had a call from my TA last week about a cruise I have on Arcadia. They told me the price had dropped and obc added so it worked out cheaper to cancel then re book. I also saved money because my original booking was a saver fare and I had booked EA grade, as I knew the locatioons of any of those would be fine. I rebooked a select fare, ED cabin which I could select myself and saved another load of money. The savings and obc will cover most of my spending money. Happy Days. 

I had to do it really quickly as it was the day before final payment, we had already paid but P&O refunded us in a couple of days. I wish I had remembered the move cruise and back again trick!

 

You have a good travel agent 

[Cheshire Blue]

21 hours ago, No pager thank you said:

Returning to your previous answer Zap, I suppose it depends on:

 

1) If you want to go on another P&O cruise?

2) If there is a good deal on i.e., that you can transfer the booking you don't want in to.

 

I believe I am correct in saying that you can transfer to a cruise before the one you are moving is due to depart, or up to 12 months later in most cases on select price. 

 

Therefore, say, for example, the OP poster wanted to go on a late deal in a month or two, or hadn't booked for next year and wanted to, there isn't anything stopping them from switching to either of these options. They would then get the better deal, plus the reduced price on the current one by rebooking it.  

 

I do agree with the points made that to reduce "losses," its a good idea to either wait, or if you definitely want a particular itinerary/date go for an on board booking, as the outlay is only £50pp.

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for everyone's input

 

Looks like best advice is to wait and see what happens between now and final payment date. 

Cancel and re book may prove the way forward then but depends what prices do.  The idea of transferring existing deposit to a future cruise may appeal (and re booking original cruise at lower price) as this ensures I do not "lose" the original deposit - although prices for 2024 / 2025 seem a bit high at present.   

[Cheshire Blue]

On 5/13/2023 at 5:20 PM, TigerB said:

This is just the reason why we now favour booking onboard and not paying the balance until it is due; £50 each to lose is nothing at all. 

 

If you book on board and so only pay a reduced deposit (say £50) is it just that deposit (£50) that you lose if you subsequently cancel ?   or are you obliged to pay the full deposit (as sort of cancellation charge) ? 

[daiB]

16 minutes ago, Cheshire Blue said:

 

8 months out 

 

Not sure it matters 

Well it matters quite a lot because you booked at an expensive time when you look at the booking window. Booking when you did is not early even though it may be a year before. Booking early to get the best price is on day one of booking. We have booked on day one for the past 18 years and for 95% of our cruises this has never been beaten. The price you pay varies as to when you book. It is controlled by an algorithm which is linked to supply and demand. They know how many cabins they need to book at any one time in the 2 year window. If sales are above the expected then th price rises if below then it falls. You may have booked the cruise at the peak time and therefore it is often inevitable that at some point the price will fall. So you either book one day one or within a few weeks of it or you book late. Book in the middle and you end up in your position.

 

Ps. I have to book on day one as I need an adapted cabin.

 

Gan Canny

 

Dai

Edited May 15, 2023 by daiB

[Cheshire Blue]

1 minute ago, daiB said:

Well it matters quite a lot because you booked at an expensive time when you look at the booking window. Booking when you did is not early even though it may be a year before. Booking early to get the best price is on day one of booking. We have booked on day one for the past 18 years and for 95% of our cruises this has never been beaten. The price you pay varies as to when you book. It is controlled by an algorithm which is linked to supply and demand. They know how many cabins they need to book at any one time in the 2 year window. If sales are above the expected then th price rises if below then it falls. You may have booked the cruise at the peak time and therefore it is often inevitable that at some point the price will fall. So you either book one day one or within a few weeks of it or you book late. Book in the middle and you end up in your position.

 

Gan Canny

 

Dai

 

Thanks for the advice - helpful - although unlikely we would be sufficiently organised to book on day 1 

 

When you say book late - do you mean : after the payment date (i.e. in the 6 / 8 weeks pre cruise) or do you mean before that 

 

My experience is that 8 /9 months out was indeed a bad time 🙃- but 6 months out now appears rather better 🙂

 

I will watch to see where the prices go in the next 3 - 4 months etc 

[TigerB]

5 minutes ago, Cheshire Blue said:

 

If you book on board and so only pay a reduced deposit (say £50) is it just that deposit (£50) that you lose if you subsequently cancel ?   or are you obliged to pay the full deposit (as sort of cancellation charge) ? 

 

Just the deposit of £50pp.

 

As it happens, I was looking at one of ours for September, for which the balance is not due until the end of June.  If I cancelled and re-booked, losing our £100, we will still save almost £300, and still have the same amount of OBC.

 

You could apply the deposit to another cruise, but it would have to be one of equal or higher value and a select fare.  You can only do that once though.  I would expect though, that if the deposit for your new cruise is £400 for example, your original deposit is transferred, and then you pay the difference at the time of booking.

[daiB]

13 minutes ago, Cheshire Blue said:

 

Thanks for the advice - helpful - although unlikely we would be sufficiently organised to book on day 1 

 

When you say book late - do you mean : after the payment date (i.e. in the 6 / 8 weeks pre cruise) or do you mean before that 

 

My experience is that 8 /9 months out was indeed a bad time 🙃- but 6 months out now appears rather better 🙂

 

I will watch to see where the prices go in the next 3 - 4 months etc 

At the moment just after the final fare has to be paid ie under 90 days seems to be best. However as things settle down you may find that the ships get filled up and the late deals disappear. This was certainly the case for a number of years pre pandemic. However if you have children the tactics are different as child places go very quickly. And late deals are very rare. Also there are certain cruises which are very popular, generally on smaller ships with one off itineraries.

[Cheshire Blue]

2 minutes ago, daiB said:

At the moment just after the final fare has to be paid ie under 90 days seems to be best. However as things settle down you may find that the ships get filled up and the late deals disappear. This was certainly the case for a number of years pre pandemic. However if you have children the tactics are different as child places go very quickly. And late deals are very rare. Also there are certain cruises which are very popular, generally on smaller ships with one off itineraries.

 

Thanks again - we don't have (young) children to consider so that's not a problem (but appreciate the "late booking" tactic can backfire if the ship is then getting full !  

[TigerB]

3 minutes ago, Cheshire Blue said:

 

Thanks again - we don't have (young) children to consider so that's not a problem (but appreciate the "late booking" tactic can backfire if the ship is then getting full !  

 

We've traditionally booked as early as we could because we need an accessible cabin. That sometimes means that we are locked into a price for a fare that will get cheaper.

We will continue to book like that for the 'cannot miss' cruises.  However, now I am retired, we have more flexibility to look at last minute deals; if we get one then great, if we don't then nothing lost. We got a great deal last month on Arvia and, with them possibly struggling to fill the two large ships, that may happen again.

The £50 deposit if booking onboard also suits us, as not a lot to lose if plans change. 

[daiB]

1 hour ago, TigerB said:

 

We've traditionally booked as early as we could because we need an accessible cabin. That sometimes means that we are locked into a price for a fare that will get cheaper.

We will continue to book like that for the 'cannot miss' cruises.  However, now I am retired, we have more flexibility to look at last minute deals; if we get one then great, if we don't then nothing lost. We got a great deal last month on Arvia and, with them possibly struggling to fill the two large ships, that may happen again.

The £50 deposit if booking onboard also suits us, as not a lot to lose if plans change. 

If you can fly and need an accessible cabin then fly cruising may work as I have noticed that these cabins tend to be more readily available on this type of cruise. This being due to the difficulty of getting mobility equipment onto a plane and off again in one piece.

[TigerB]

1 hour ago, daiB said:

If you can fly and need an accessible cabin then fly cruising may work as I have noticed that these cabins tend to be more readily available on this type of cruise. This being due to the difficulty of getting mobility equipment onto a plane and off again in one piece.

 

Before the pandemic we would regularly fly to the US and Canada, but now, having flown just once in a little over three years, our lass is not so keen to get back in the air just yet; hence, more cruises from Southampton.  Things could change in the future, though.

[Selbourne]

3 hours ago, daiB said:

Well it matters quite a lot because you booked at an expensive time when you look at the booking window. Booking when you did is not early even though it may be a year before. Booking early to get the best price is on day one of booking. We have booked on day one for the past 18 years and for 95% of our cruises this has never been beaten. The price you pay varies as to when you book. It is controlled by an algorithm which is linked to supply and demand. They know how many cabins they need to book at any one time in the 2 year window. If sales are above the expected then th price rises if below then it falls. You may have booked the cruise at the peak time and therefore it is often inevitable that at some point the price will fall. So you either book one day one or within a few weeks of it or you book late. Book in the middle and you end up in your position.

 

Ps. I have to book on day one as I need an adapted cabin.

 

Gan Canny

 

Dai

Dai - I have always taken exactly the same approach as you and booked on day 1, for identical reasons (always the lowest price & need for an accessible cabin), but post Covid that now seems to be changing. 
 

We had our eyes on the July cruise on Britannia for some times and I called our TA a few times and there was no availability of accessible cabins (no surprise there). Anyhow, fast forward a few months and I called after balance due date and not only could we get a very good price but we had a choice of two accessible balcony cabins. 
 

When looking at the latest release (Summer 2025), all the launch prices were quite a bit more than we have paid for near identical cruises for 2023 and 2024, booked well after launch. As none of them are ‘must do’ cruises and with all the repetitive itineraries now on offer, we have decided to leave it until much nearer the time. I have retained the launch prices for all of the cruises we were considering and I will monitor prices between now and then. It will be interesting to see, but I am sure that some, if not all, will end up cheaper than launch prices at some stage. 

[davecttr]

P&O are still offering balconies for solo occupation at low prices on Arcadia's 21 night cruise this August. It was £1999 for an early saver balcony EF category but the final price was £1799, £86.67 per day. I could have had a select fare for £3998 and a couple would pay £6078 for a select fare. Maybe it is the length of the cruise that is the problem?

[swanseaboy]

Just booked Arcadia for end of August to Iceland. Crazy price - solo in an inside cabin at £702 for 16 nights. That's £43 a day. Unbelieveable value. 

 

I've got 2 Arvia cruises booked onboard for this coming October at the £50 per cruise deposit. I'm keeping an eye on them but will probably keep the booking for the onboard credit.

 

It's swings and roundabouts!

[Selbourne]

56 minutes ago, swanseaboy said:

Just booked Arcadia for end of August to Iceland. Crazy price - solo in an inside cabin at £702 for 16 nights. That's £43 a day. Unbelieveable value. 

 

I've got 2 Arvia cruises booked onboard for this coming October at the £50 per cruise deposit. I'm keeping an eye on them but will probably keep the booking for the onboard credit.

 

It's swings and roundabouts!

Fantastic deal and a great itinerary. Whilst we don’t like Arcadia we would have seriously looked at this cruise had it not clashed with another already booked. You can’t go wrong at those prices. Enjoy. 

[terrierjohn]

10 hours ago, Cheshire Blue said:

 

Thanks for the advice - helpful - although unlikely we would be sufficiently organised to book on day 1 

 

When you say book late - do you mean : after the payment date (i.e. in the 6 / 8 weeks pre cruise) or do you mean before that 

 

My experience is that 8 /9 months out was indeed a bad time 🙃- but 6 months out now appears rather better 🙂

 

I will watch to see where the prices go in the next 3 - 4 months etc 

Generally for a summer cruise, booking in January 4-6 months before can be a good time. The cruise industry calls this "Wave season" and will be offering discounted prices to get the current season off to a flying start for bookings. The next point is as you say after balance payment has been made, when any doubters will have cancelled their bookings, and cruise lines are looking to fill these and any unsold cabins.