ROYAL UP TRACKER??

[Beachin2]

Any interest in starting a sticky thread tracking Royal Up success, failures & amounts similar to the Celebrity Move Up Tracker?

[smokeybandit]

Honestly I hope not. Royal Up successes are so specifically tied to that sailing that there's really nothing to compare from cruise to cruise or ship to ship.

[Nabalab]

While I like it because I'm usually curious of winning Royal Up bids, along with the person's original/newly upgraded-to category... I feel the thread would be primarily questions; not so much results. 

 

Or people posting that they won and that's it. 

Edited December 21, 2023 by Nabalab

[HicksRA]

I just love reading irrelevant data - not…

[Starry Eyes]

It won’t influence me.  I’m going to bid the amount the upgraded cabin is worth to me and mine on that particular cruise.  Tales of past success or failure on different cruises would not help me.

[Saoa0318]

55 minutes ago, Starry Eyes said:

It won’t influence me.  I’m going to bid the amount the upgraded cabin is worth to me and mine on that particular cruise.  Tales of past success or failure on different cruises would not help me.

Agreed. We just won our bid from a gty inside to a balcony. Compared to what a balcony is going for now we got a great deal but, I still do t think there is rhyme or reason. Its an algorithm I am not interested in cracking. 

[Starry Eyes]

1 minute ago, Saoa0318 said:

Agreed. We just won our bid from a gty inside to a balcony. Compared to what a balcony is going for now we got a great deal but, I still do t think there is rhyme or reason. Its an algorithm I am not interested in cracking. 

Congratulations on your win.

On an upcoming cruise the minimum bid for gty inside to OV balcony is $395pp.  As we spend very little time on the balcony, that’s more that minimum is more than we are willing to pay this time, though we might on a special cruise.  

[TheDawg79]

There is literally no point. The supply on demand for one specific sailing has no bearing on any other sailing. 

[George C]

The celebrity cruise has one , I know on rccl I had several bids some a couple of thousand and didn’t have any success, on my first bid on celebrity I went from sky suite to penthouse but that was right after Covid before cruises were full. 

[sunonfire]

I received a Royal Up offer for the following — every single category for suites from junior suites to the Royal Suite and every suite in between. My cruise is next month and it is sold out. If they have every category above the balcony available to bid on, I don’t understand why the ship is sold out. We are sailing on the Radiance. Is this common?

[Engineroom Snipe]

13 minutes ago, sunonfire said:

I received a Royal Up offer for the following — every single category for suites from junior suites to the Royal Suite and every suite in between. My cruise is next month and it is sold out. If they have every category above the balcony available to bid on, I don’t understand why the ship is sold out. We are sailing on the Radiance. Is this common?

Yes. Cabin availability has no affect on what you are offered on a Royal Up.

[sunonfire]

Are you saying that the cabins that are being offered in Royal Up are not available? On Celebrity Move Up you can what cabins are available to the public and not every category is offered.

[TheDawg79]

4 minutes ago, sunonfire said:

Are you saying that the cabins that are being offered in Royal Up are not available? On Celebrity Move Up you can what cabins are available to the public and not every category is offered.

That is 100% the case and is even spelled out as such in the T&C. An offer to bid does not equate to availability. They take the bids on the off chance there is a no show at embarkation. All you received was a boiler plate email that went out to everyone in your cabin category. They even have the right to reject all offers even if there is availability. 

Edited January 6 by TheDawg79

[sunonfire]

This was my first Royal Up. I know that the offer went out to everyone on my cruise. It seems crazy. Thanks for the explanation. It’s different from Celebrity. When I bid on their site you could see available cabins. No guarantees but you have an idea of where you could wind up if the bid is accepted.

[Engineroom Snipe]

Just now, sunonfire said:

This was my first Royal Up. I know that the offer went out to everyone on my cruise. It seems crazy. Thanks for the explanation. It’s different from Celebrity. When I bid on their site you could see available cabins. No guarantees but you have an idea of where you could wind up if the bid is accepted.

I get your point. The first time I received one of these offers I felt "special."

 

This is a third party contractor hired by RCI to maximize profits should a vacancy occur at the last minute before boarding similar to arriving at an airport for an upgrade.

 

There is no implied opening of any type with this offering.

[Starry Eyes]

1 hour ago, sunonfire said:

This was my first Royal Up. I know that the offer went out to everyone on my cruise. It seems crazy. Thanks for the explanation. It’s different from Celebrity. When I bid on their site you could see available cabins. No guarantees but you have an idea of where you could wind up if the bid is accepted.

Someone in a JS or full suite might cancel.  As the bids are already submitted, the resulting vacancy can be filled quickly and profitably.  I did win a bid in the past when all categories above mine had previously been sold out.

[Scottee25]

On 12/21/2023 at 5:10 PM, Saoa0318 said:

I still do t think there is rhyme or reason. Its an algorithm I am not interested in cracking. 

 

That statement kind of contradicts itself, doesn't it? Just because you don't understand the algorithm would suggest there is indeed an algorithm behind how winning bids are determined, and therefore, would conclude there is a rhyme and reason.

[Beachin2]

Thought this might have been a good idea for this board.  The one on Celebrity has been running for 5 years and has over 1,500 posts.  Granted, some are questions - but the majority is good basic information for trends in winning a bid.

[toxicfairy]

This is exactly why I pick the cabin we want in the location we want at a price we can afford. In August we will be on Freedom in a JS on the hump. I wouldn't upgrade because I specifically want that location. Unless I got a GS that was also a good location but it would have to be a very low upgrade price lol. 

[Engineroom Snipe]

50 minutes ago, Beachin2 said:

Thought this might have been a good idea for this board.  The one on Celebrity has been running for 5 years and has over 1,500 posts.  Granted, some are questions - but the majority is good basic information for trends in winning a bid.

I have been doing computer algorithms for over twenty years. The problem is that they tend to be bias towards the thinking of the "creator." Many programmers and developers tend to not create documentation in their programming. They leave the company and follow up teams try to add-on, modify, or delete code parts without knowing the intent of the programming that they modify.

 

Just some examples of how "their is no rhyme or reason to the how the winning bid is won." @Scottee25

 

RCI's Royal Up Contractor is used for trains, planes and automobiles before RCI hired them for cruises.

 

Variables:

 

1. Current cruise price advertised versus desired cruise price of RCI (is it higher or lower?).

2. What is the click-rate on website traffic on specific cruises and specific rooms on that specific cruise?

3. What is the projected vacancy rates of those rooms and how have they changed over time"

4. Check history of travel agencies' previous sales against current sales statistics.

5. Minimize discounts whenever possible during Royal Up processes.

6. Calculate current value of vacant room against all of the available programming points previously listed.

7. History of cancellations on a long and short term basis.

8. The COVID calculations completely upended previously used algorithms and a whole new process had to be implemented.

9. How does revenge travel affect the previous calculations and do we know even acknowledge or COVID programming parameters?

 

I could waste my time listing over 100 more variables at a minimum.

 

Without knowing the original and continuing goals of the programmers, I am wasting my time trying to figure out "their rhyme or reason."

 

I could try and program an AI model to "learn" how the algorithm works but I would have to have unlimited access to data the cruise lines are never going to allow any consumer.

 

Without sales data, inquiry data, units sold, desired profit margins combined with cruise operating costs, the AI model is just imitating our best guess with the same information that you and I can get on publicly provided information.

 

Unless you know the intent of the developers to achieve the goal, there is no rhyme or reason.

 

RCI is trying to maximize profits but I do not know how they are going about it in the Royal Up process.

 

Imagine that. 😁

[Scottee25]

29 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

I have been doing computer algorithms for over twenty years.

 

Based on what you posted, you may want to go back and work on them a few more years.

 

29 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

Many programmers and developers tend to not create documentation in their programming. They leave the company and follow up teams try to add-on, modify, or delete code parts without knowing the intent of the programming that they modify.

 

As someone who has been a Software Engineer approaching 30 years I will agree with you on a few points. Yes, developers are rather poor at documenting their code. Yes, it's not always clear what developers were thinking when they wrote their code or why they wrote it a certain way. However, in the vast majority of cases, business logic is not determined by the developers. It is determined by the Business Analysts and the user community. I can look at code and tell you what it's doing. Any decent developer can do that. What I can't determine is if it meets the users needs unless I have those specifications.

 

37 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

Just some examples of how "their is no rhyme or reason to the how the winning bid is won." @Scottee25

 

RCI's Royal Up Contractor is used for trains, planes and automobiles before RCI hired them for cruises.

 

Variables:

...

 

Based on your list of variables, something tell me you also subscribe to conspiracy theories, believe in the Loch Ness monster, and have seen a Sasquatch. Your "examples" are you pulling at straws that really hold no weight in the process. You're ignore the number 1 rule of software development. KISS - Keep it simple stupid. At the highest level Royal is attempting to maximize their their profits per sailing. At a deeper level their contractor is using algorithms and data structures that allow them to calculate the various profit margins of all possible scenarios. It's really not that complicated. The contractor would be given a list of the available rooms (Your COVID examples are moot since the quarantine cabins would not be included in this list), the software would build its data structures and run its algorithms to find the most profitable paths. Are there some "unknowns" in the process? Of course. Is it magic? Not in the slightest.

[Engineroom Snipe]

13 minutes ago, Scottee25 said:

 

Based on what you posted, you may want to go back and work on them a few more years.

 

 

As someone who has been a Software Engineer approaching 30 years I will agree with you on a few points. Yes, developers are rather poor at documenting their code. Yes, it's not always clear what developers were thinking when they wrote their code or why they wrote it a certain way. However, in the vast majority of cases, business logic is not determined by the developers. It is determined by the Business Analysts and the user community. I can look at code and tell you what it's doing. Any decent developer can do that. What I can't determine is if it meets the users needs unless I have those specifications.

 

 

Based on your list of variables, something tell me you also subscribe to conspiracy theories, believe in the Loch Ness monster, and have seen a Sasquatch. Your "examples" are you pulling at straws that really hold no weight in the process. You're ignore the number 1 rule of software development. KISS - Keep it simple stupid. At the highest level Royal is attempting to maximize their their profits per sailing. At a deeper level their contractor is using algorithms and data structures that allow them to calculate the various profit margins of all possible scenarios. It's really not that complicated. The contractor would be given a list of the available rooms (Your COVID examples are moot since the quarantine cabins would not be included in this list), the software would build its data structures and run its algorithms to find the most profitable paths. Are there some "unknowns" in the process? Of course. Is it magic? Not in the slightest.

I have been put in my place.

 

Please have a great day @Scottee25

[Nyxy]

I put in many bids...One was over 4,000. On Christmas day I was notified my bids were not accepted; the day before I was leaving.

[Engineroom Snipe]

8 minutes ago, Nyxy said:

I put in many bids...One was over 4,000. On Christmas day I was notified my bids were not accepted; the day before I was leaving.

The same for me. I have bid for many years on rooms I want as opposed to bidding on a room that is technically an upgrade but ends up being on a part of the ship which I would find less desirable than the room I have.

 

It still come down to getting the cabin you want on your original purchase without wishing it was going to be another cabin.

 

Will this affect your vacation in such a way that it ruins it?

 

Royal Up will not fix that dilemma.

[Tree_skier]

All I know for sure is the programmer seems to have put in a line of code that specifically says to not accept my bids.

 

I'm 0/9 on RoyalUp bids.