QA revised arrival Southampton

[exlondoner]

Soton VTS says 14.45.

[buchanan101]

If the 1374nm is correct still rather quick. Currently 21.1knots well clear of Gibraltar so presumably that’s the fastest she is going to go…

Edited April 28 by buchanan101

[bluemarble]

2 hours ago, buchanan101 said:

On her way. Still 11:15 ETA on 30th. But that doesn’t seem possible 1374nm in 48 hours is 28 knots…

 

@buchanan101, I'm not sure which site you've shown us in your first image. When I check the three sites I use for ship tracking (marinetraffic, cruisemapper and vesselfinder), they are all showing Queen Anne is currently reporting an ETA at Southampton of 15:15 local time (14:15 UTC) on April 30 via AIS.

 

As @sogne has mentioned, that ETA usually means the time QA will reach the Nab pilot station. Add about 2 hours, 30 minutes for the time it takes to sail from the Nab to the Mayflower cruise terminal. That would put her arrival time at the Mayflower cruise terminal at approximately 5:45pm local time on April 30.

 

Now considering the sailing distance from Gibraltar to Southampton, @sogne taught me earlier on another thread that "sea-distances.com" is a better site for determining sailing distances. That site lists the sailing distance between Gibraltar and Southampton as 1145 nm. QA departed Gibraltar at 9:00am local time which gave her 2 days, 6 hours, 45 minutes to meet the originally scheduled arrival time of 14:45 shown on the Southampton VTS site. If she were able to average 21 knots for the entire 1145 nm sailing distance, that works out to approximately 2 days, 6 hours, 30 minutes.

 

However, at her current speed of just a bit over 21 knots, she won't be able to average 21 knots over the entire journey since she had to sail considerably slower than that the first two hours after departing Gibraltar and will need to slow again for the final segment from the Nab through the Solent and Southampton Water. But if she were able to increase her speed to 22 knots as she did earlier for portions of the journey from Venice to Gibraltar she might have more of a fighting chance.

 

Anyway, in addition to continuing to track her progress, I think we'll want to keep an eye on the Southampton VTS site. They will update QA's arrival time in due course if her arrival is going to be delayed in line with what she is reporting via AIS.

 

Edit to add: I see QA had increased her speed to 22 knots a few minutes ago.

Edited April 28 by bluemarble

[buchanan101]

1 hour ago, bluemarble said:

 

@buchanan101, I'm not sure which site you've shown us in your first image. When I check the three sites I use for ship tracking (marinetraffic, cruisemapper and vesselfinder), they are all showing Queen Anne is currently reporting an ETA at Southampton of 15:15 local time (14:15 UTC) on April 30 via AIS.

 

As @sogne has mentioned, that ETA usually means the time QA will reach the Nab pilot station. Add about 2 hours, 30 minutes for the time it takes to sail from the Nab to the Mayflower cruise terminal. That would put her arrival time at the Mayflower cruise terminal at approximately 5:45pm local time on April 30.

 

Now considering the sailing distance from Gibraltar to Southampton, @sogne taught me earlier on another thread that "sea-distances.com" is a better site for determining sailing distances. That site lists the sailing distance between Gibraltar and Southampton as 1145 nm. QA departed Gibraltar at 9:00am local time which gave her 2 days, 6 hours, 45 minutes to meet the originally scheduled arrival time of 14:45 shown on the Southampton VTS site. If she were able to average 21 knots for the entire 1145 nm sailing distance, that works out to approximately 2 days, 6 hours, 30 minutes.

 

However, at her current speed of just a bit over 21 knots, she won't be able to average 21 knots over the entire journey since she had to sail considerably slower than that the first two hours after departing Gibraltar and will need to slow again for the final segment from the Nab through the Solent and Southampton Water. But if she were able to increase her speed to 22 knots as she did earlier for portions of the journey from Venice to Gibraltar she might have more of a fighting chance.

 

Anyway, in addition to continuing to track her progress, I think we'll want to keep an eye on the Southampton VTS site. They will update QA's arrival time in due course if her arrival is going to be delayed in line with what she is reporting via AIS.

 

Edit to add: I see QA had increased her speed to 22 knots a few minutes ago.

Thanks for the better link. Currently still says 14:45 at nab on Southampton VTS. 

22kn is her top speed I think 

[bluemarble]

4 hours ago, buchanan101 said:

On her way. Still 11:15 ETA on 30th. But that doesn’t seem possible 1374nm in 48 hours is 28 knots…

 

 

Oh, I see now, that's from the cruisemapper smartphone app. Looks like they've got a glitch reporting the ETA in their app since it doesn't match other sources, including their own website "cruisemapper.com". Here's what their page is showing on their website. That 14:15 ETA is UTC so that's 15:15 local time. And as mentioned earlier that's usually the ETA to the Nab pilot station.

 

[bluemarble]

43 minutes ago, buchanan101 said:

Thanks for the better link. Currently still says 14:45 at nab on Southampton VTS. 

22kn is her top speed I think 

 

In my experience, the times listed on the Southampton VTS site are arrival/departure times to/from the berth, not the pilot station. The reference to "Nab" here indicates the direction QA will be taking into Southampton. So, as of know there is a disconnect of several hours compared to what QA started reporting via AIS upon departure from Gibraltar. We'll want to keep an eye on Southampton VTS to see if that schedule is updated.

Edited April 28 by bluemarble

[Megabear2]

Blue Funnel Ferries seem to think she's coming in at the earlier time as they're selling tickets at £25 each departing 12.15 from Southampton to join the flotilla and various Isle of Wight sailings all leaving around that time too. Local papers are telling prospective viewers she will be at Mayflower Terminal at 2.45pm as well.  Going to be a lot of disappointed people if she's not going to be there.

[buchanan101]

26 minutes ago, bluemarble said:

 

In my experience, the times listed on the Southampton VTS site are arrival/departure times to/from the berth, not the pilot station. The reference to "Nab" here indicates the direction QA will be taking into Southampton. So, as of know there is a disconnect of several hours compared to what QA started reporting via AIS upon departure from Gibraltar. We'll want to keep an eye on Southampton VTS to see if that schedule is updated.

That’s what I thought as it’s port times but someone said it was at nab. Reporting times that aren’t actually arrival times but T-2:45 aren’t much use to anyone. 

[buchanan101]

11 minutes ago, Megabear2 said:

Blue Funnel Ferries seem to think she's coming in at the earlier time as they're selling tickets at £25 each departing 12.15 from Southampton to join the flotilla and various Isle of Wight sailings all leaving around that time too. Local papers are telling prospective viewers she will be at Mayflower Terminal at 2.45pm as well.  Going to be a lot of disappointed people if she's not going to be 

 

I can’t see how she will be even by the maths you did with the shorter distance. Can’t steam at 21 knots up the Solent. 

Edited April 28 by buchanan101

[buchanan101]

50 minutes ago, bluemarble said:

 

Oh, I see now, that's from the cruisemapper smartphone app. Looks like they've got a glitch reporting the ETA in their app since it doesn't match other sources, including their own website "cruisemapper.com". Here's what their page is showing on their website. That 14:15 ETA is UTC so that's 15:15 local time. And as mentioned earlier that's usually the ETA to the Nab pilot station.

 

Their app also doesn’t list the maiden voyage in upcoming cruises… nor does Cunard in cruises but I assume that that’s because there are no tickets available 

[Megabear2]

4 minutes ago, buchanan101 said:

I think it’s Red Funnel at Soton. They are who we use to get to IoW. Or do you mean Wightlink at Portsmouth? 
 

I can’t see how she will be even by the maths you did with the shorter distance. Can’t steam at 21 knots up the Solent. 

Blue Funnel Cruises - sorry autocorrect changed it to Ferries.

 

https://bluefunnel.co.uk/events/queen-anne-arrival/

 

Also local newspaper produced this information from Cunard.

 

The following vantage points have been recommended to view Queen Anne as she makes her way to her home port:

 

• Ryde and Gosport: 12.45pm

• Lee-on-the-Solent: 1.10pm

• Cowes: 1.10pm

• Calshot: 1.20pm

• Hamble: 1.30pm

• Royal Victoria Country Park and Weston Shore: 2pm

• Hythe: 2.15pm

• Mayflower Park: 2.30pm

• Mayflower Cruise Terminal: 2.45pm

 

No idea if its correct but as I say a lot of people expecting this or very near.

[ClipperinSFO]

I am guessing the stop in GIB was planned -- the port is known as a cheap(er) source of (tax-free) fuel, so  the pit stop would be baked in to the overall voyage plan.   Or maybe a last minute decision?  Oh to have been a fly on the wall of the QA bridge. 

[bluemarble]

4 minutes ago, buchanan101 said:

That’s what I thought as it’s port times but someone said it was at nab. Reporting times that aren’t actually arrival times but T-2:45 aren’t much use to anyone. 

 

The difference is between what the ships report via AIS and what the port authorities report in their port schedules. As @sogne has taught me, the ships usually report ETA (via AIS) as the time to the pilot station. The various ship tracking sites display that ETA reported by the ships. I've seen that bear out with the times QM2 reports for her ETA at New York. That generally works out to be fairly close to her arrival at the Ambrose pilot station rather than her arrival time at the Brooklyn Cruise Terminal.

[sogne]

29 minutes ago, buchanan101 said:

That’s what I thought as it’s port times but someone said it was at nab. Reporting times that aren’t actually arrival times but T-2:45 aren’t much use to anyone. 

ETA times on AIS are primarily of course for other ships who know that is usually to the destination pilot station.

[molecrochip]

Southampton port advertising 14:45 arrival at berth however latest AIS update from ship suggests Nab Tower at 14:15.

 

Currently advised timings from Cunard Press Office are:

 

Note: times are subject to change.  

• Ryde and Gosport – 12:45 
• Lee on Solent – 13:10 
• Cowes – 13:10 
• Calshot -13:20 
• Hamble -13:30 
• Royal Victoria Country Park & Weston Shore -14:00 
• Hythe -14:15 
• Mayflower Park – 14:30 
• Mayflower Cruise Terminal – 14:45 

 

I expect these formal timings to nudge back slightly.

[molecrochip]

To add, Marine Traffic also has its own calculated ETA. This is purely distance between last port and next port pilot station dividend by average speed since last port.

 

This is currently showing 1am on the 1st May. This should slowly come back towards the reported ETA as more hours spent at full speed thus increasing average speed since last port.

[buchanan101]

It’s on a go slow from Ryde… 2 hours where an IoW ferry from Cowes to Soton takes just under an hour. 

[bluemarble]

1 hour ago, buchanan101 said:

I can’t see how she will be even by the maths you did with the shorter distance. Can’t steam at 21 knots up the Solent. 

 

Right. If QA were to increase her speed to 22 knots for the portion sailing on open ocean, she could cut perhaps two hours off her arrival time compared to 21 knots. But as it is now, she's only sailing about 20 knots off the southeast coast of Portugal. I'll be keeping an eye on the situation, but right now the maths aren't working out for me for QA being able to meet that 14:45 arrival time at the Mayflower Cruise Terminal.

[Selbourne]

4 minutes ago, buchanan101 said:

It’s on a go slow from Ryde… 2 hours where an IoW ferry from Cowes to Soton takes just under an hour. 

A few things to keep in mind. Ryde to Soton is a longer route than from Cowes. Cruise ships take a longer route from Cowes to Calshot, as they have to take a wider route around Bramble Bank to keep in deeper water, necessitating two low speed turns. Cruise ships travel slower along Southampton Water than the Red Funnel car ferries, presumably due to the larger wake they generate, which would be problematic for all the small craft that use this waterway. There will no doubt be a flotilla of small vessels shadowing Queen Anne on her inbound transit, so a slower transit than normal will be necessary for safety. Finally, the arrival into Southampton is a big PR exercise where Cunard will want as may people as possible to get a good look at their new ship, so they won’t want to be rushing! 

[bluemarble]

With 24 hours to go now until QA's scheduled 14:45 arrival at Southampton, I'll offer my further take on the situation. QA has rounded the northwest corner of Spain and is starting across the Bay of Biscay.

 

This morning QA increased her speed back up to 21 knots. And for the past hour she's occasionally managed 22 knots. Even so, the best I'm coming up with for calculating her arrival time is no better than what QA has been reporting via AIS (15:15 local time at the Nab pilot station). I'm actually coming up with an hour or two later than that at the moment but acknowledge my calculations could be off.

 

I do hope I'm looking at this incorrectly, but I'm not seeing any way QA will be able to meet the publicized schedule through the Solent and on to the Mayflower Cruise Terminal. At the moment, I'm figuring she's going to be more like four to five hours behind that schedule.

 

Stay tuned for further developments.

[exlondoner]

19 minutes ago, bluemarble said:

With 24 hours to go now until QA's scheduled 14:45 arrival at Southampton, I'll offer my further take on the situation. QA has rounded the northwest corner of Spain and is starting across the Bay of Biscay.

 

This morning QA increased her speed back up to 21 knots. And for the past hour she's occasionally managed 22 knots. Even so, the best I'm coming up with for calculating her arrival time is no better than what QA has been reporting via AIS (15:15 local time at the Nab pilot station). I'm actually coming up with an hour or two later than that at the moment but acknowledge my calculations could be off.

 

I do hope I'm looking at this incorrectly, but I'm not seeing any way QA will be able to meet the publicized schedule through the Solent and on to the Mayflower Cruise Terminal. At the moment, I'm figuring she's going to be more like four to five hours behind that schedule.

 

Stay tuned for further developments.

High tide tomorrow at Soton is at about 16.30 BST, I think. I wonder if she might take advantage of that to do what QV has done a couple of times when I have been aboard, and sneak in past the Needles, saving a couple of hours.

[Selbourne]

12 minutes ago, exlondoner said:

High tide tomorrow at Soton is at about 16.30 BST, I think. I wonder if she might take advantage of that to do what QV has done a couple of times when I have been aboard, and sneak in past the Needles, saving a couple of hours.

It’s very rare for ships to use the short cut past Yarmouth, and on the rare occasion that I’ve known it happen they have been small ships, certainly nothing as large as Queen Anne. Even if it were possible, I would also think that, from a PR perspective, Cunard would want the ship to be passing the Isle of Wight coast between Seaview, Ryde (opposite Portsmouth) and Cowes, as this opportunity for the ship to be viewed from land by large numbers of people would be completely lost coming via the Yarmouth route. 

Edited April 29 by Selbourne

[buchanan101]

32 minutes ago, bluemarble said:

With 24 hours to go now until QA's scheduled 14:45 arrival at Southampton, I'll offer my further take on the situation. QA has rounded the northwest corner of Spain and is starting across the Bay of Biscay.

 

This morning QA increased her speed back up to 21 knots. And for the past hour she's occasionally managed 22 knots. Even so, the best I'm coming up with for calculating her arrival time is no better than what QA has been reporting via AIS (15:15 local time at the Nab pilot station). I'm actually coming up with an hour or two later than that at the moment but acknowledge my calculations could be off.

 

I do hope I'm looking at this incorrectly, but I'm not seeing any way QA will be able to meet the publicized schedule through the Solent and on to the Mayflower Cruise Terminal. At the moment, I'm figuring she's going to be more like four to five hours behind that schedule.

 

Stay tuned for further developments.

This is what we thought yesterday, even with the shorter distance you found compared with the one I found. 
 

 

[exlondoner]

5 minutes ago, Selbourne said:

It’s very rare for ships to use the short cut past Yarmouth, and on the rare occasion that I’ve known it happen they have been small ships, certainly nothing as large as Queen Anne. Even if it were possible, I would also think that, from a PR perspective, Cunard would want the ship to be passing the Isle of Wight coast between Seaview, Ryde (opposite Portsmouth) and Cowes, as this opportunity for the ship to be viewed from land by large numbers of people would be completely lost coming via the Yarmouth route. 

It’s not that rare if QV (which even by modern standards is not small) has done it twice with me aboard. On both occasions it was the same captain, now retired, and on both occasions we had been delayed. I agree about the PR issue though.

[exlondoner]

Soton VTS now says 19.45.