First time on the Cunard Line…… differences…..

[david63]

43 minutes ago, exlondoner said:

And for many of the millions in England and Wales who live west of London and South of Birmingham, Southampton might be a lot more convenient than Heathrow, let alone Gatwick. Not invariably of course.

But equally for the millions that live north of Birmingham regional airports are significantly more convenient.

[JT1101]

21 hours ago, david63 said:

But is that approach sustainable in the long term? I would hazard a guess that the number of passengers looking for that experience is declining

Seeing as Cunard has had zero issues with sailing fully booked I think the demand for what they provide is there for them.

Edited July 30 by JT1101

[david63]

2 hours ago, JT1101 said:

Seeing as Cunard has had zero issues with sailing fully booked I think the demand for what they provide is there for them.

My original point was that it will not be sustainable in the future, not that there is no current demand.

 

The nature of modern day cruising is for visiting ports and not spending five/six days at sea to have one day in port and five/six days back. There are many cruise passengers that do not want any sea days at all, or at best just an odd one.

 

There is an argument that the demand is there because the ships are doing that itinerary in the same way that the same argument can be applied to any other cruise.

[ExArkie]

16 hours ago, david63 said:

My original point was that it will not be sustainable in the future, not that there is no current demand.

 

The nature of modern day cruising is for visiting ports and not spending five/six days at sea to have one day in port and five/six days back. There are many cruise passengers that do not want any sea days at all, or at best just an odd one.

 

There is an argument that the demand is there because the ships are doing that itinerary in the same way that the same argument can be applied to any other cruise.

 

If you read through the CC boards, you will find a number of people who prefer many sea days and limited ports (myself included). Your statement regarding demand being there because the ships are full can also be applied to the new-port-each-day sailings, i.e., they are sailing full because that is what is being offered.

 

I, personally, am not well informed as to the vagaries of market demand and preferences in the cruise industry, but it appears to me that there is enough demand to sustain dedicated transatlantic crossings projected out through the near term. Whether that will exist for decades into the future is not something that I can foresee.

 

However, it would appear that a niche market (one or two ships) dedicated to ocean crossings could easily be sustainable based on the number of people that report enjoying such trips. Let's make the analogy to the Grand Hotel on Michigan's Mackinac Island. Their business model runs entirely counter to the current trends in the hotel market, but they maintain a high level of bookings and are in great demand. Been doing it for a while, too.

 

I find it equally plausible that the people who are doing three or more Caribbean cruises each year will eventually tire of that and seek other options, which may not be on cruise ships at all. I also find it plausible that there will be a segment of the market devoted to amusement park amenities on cruises that skip ports entirely.

 

Basically, what I am saying is, who knows what demand will be more than a couple of years from now?

[david63]

I think that the point is that TA crossings is a niche market in the world of cruising (arguably TA is not cruising - but that is another debate) and a lot will depend on how it fits in with Carnival's overall vision - which will, to a large extent, depend on its profitability.

 

One thing that I would guess is fairly certain is that it is unlikely that Carnival will buy any new ocean liners.

[exlondoner]

14 minutes ago, david63 said:

 

One thing that I would guess is fairly certain is that it is unlikely that Carnival will buy any new ocean liners.

 

Weren’t people making similar prognostications all the way through the 1990s?

[JT1101]

7 minutes ago, exlondoner said:

 

Weren’t people making similar prognostications all the way through the 1990s?

Yes. But again Cunard is not Carnival. Carnival LLC tends to give their business units leeway in how the operate so as not to overly homogenize the brands. The Transatlantic run is a money printer for Cunard so it is a pretty safe guess that QM2 will get a running mate somewhere along the line. 

[exlondoner]

2 minutes ago, JT1101 said:

Yes. But again Cunard is not Carnival. Carnival LLC tends to give their business units leeway in how the operate so as not to overly homogenize the brands. The Transatlantic run is a money printer for Cunard so it is a pretty safe guess that QM2 will get a running mate somewhere along the line. 

I thought that was roughly what I was implying.

[3rdGenCunarder]

2 minutes ago, JT1101 said:

Yes. But again Cunard is not Carnival. Carnival LLC tends to give their business units leeway in how the operate so as not to overly homogenize the brands. The Transatlantic run is a money printer for Cunard so it is a pretty safe guess that QM2 will get a running mate somewhere along the line. 

 

I don't see two ships dedicated to transatlantic runs. QM2 often has cruises scheduled between TAs, so they aren't running a complete transatlantic schedule now. It's been that way going back to QE2, so it looks to me like Carnival Corp doesn't see the need for a full time back and forth service.

[*Miss G*]

1 hour ago, 3rdGenCunarder said:

Carnival Corp doesn't see the need for a full time back and forth service.

 

*I*, however, do. 😂

 

It has taken years for the stars to align where I could schedule a crossing to fit in with my travels.  I was at the point of “This is never going to happen”… when it did!  To say I was shocked was an understatement.  lol 

[JT1101]

It is effectively a full time one just one tailored to people's patterns. If you run down the schedule under "Transatlantic" you'll see either QM2 express or the slower South Atlantic based QE and QV (and now QA) based routes to the USA happen all year. 

[JT1101]

As to Cunard's style of travel - there is another thread in here somewhere that broke out revenue across Carnival LLC by brand and then made it per ship. It was illuminating as basically on a per ship basis Cunard contributes 46% more revenue than the other Carnival lines. 

[starquake]

23 minutes ago, JT1101 said:

As to Cunard's style of travel - there is another thread in here somewhere that broke out revenue across Carnival LLC by brand and then made it per ship. It was illuminating as basically on a per ship basis Cunard contributes 46% more revenue than the other Carnival lines. 

 

And I suspect quite a large % of Cunard comes from the transatlantic runs.    When you are effectively on a ship with no port stops, casino, on board spend revenue also increases in proportion.

 

There is literally no chance any sane businessman would turn down a potential another 40 years of revenue where the one ship contributes a huge percentage of the revenue..  Remember QM2 has a 40 year "from shipyard" service life, and assuming the replacement has same, they'll need to start building the new ship around 2029 ish, to allow a 5 year overlap.    That means they'll need to start the design work in the next 5 years.

 

I also expect cost of capital to be a major contributing factor, as expect the new QM2 to have a minimum of 2 billion needed spending on it.

[NE John]

As stated by others here, the 250th Cunard ship is ripe to be announced as the next ocean liner. There is a market for an ocean liner as a mode of transatlantic transport for those who don’t fly and for retired baby boomers who have the time to do a TA. 

[JT1101]

2 hours ago, starquake said:

 

And I suspect quite a large % of Cunard comes from the transatlantic runs.    When you are effectively on a ship with no port stops, casino, on board spend revenue also increases in proportion.

 

There is literally no chance any sane businessman would turn down a potential another 40 years of revenue where the one ship contributes a huge percentage of the revenue..  Remember QM2 has a 40 year "from shipyard" service life, and assuming the replacement has same, they'll need to start building the new ship around 2029 ish, to allow a 5 year overlap.    That means they'll need to start the design work in the next 5 years.

 

I also expect cost of capital to be a major contributing factor, as expect the new QM2 to have a minimum of 2 billion needed spending on it.

The nice thing is they have a proven design template to use. Just call Stephen Payne back in to modify the QM2 design for the things he learned from it. Efficiency gains in both azipod motors and diesel generators could for example allow the gas turbines to be deleted or replaced with a less expensive unit. 

[Germancruiser]

I, too think that regular TA- Service to and from Southampton/ New York would be appreachated by many- myself included. With ships getting bigger and bigger every year and all those ports overwhelmed with cruise passengers- those cruises with as many port days as possible are no longer desireable for me. Flying get´s more stressfull by the year as well- also due to overtourism- so for me the destination is the ship and the relaxing time on the Atlantic.

[david63]

10 hours ago, JT1101 said:

The nice thing is they have a proven design template to use

That would be dependant on whether it is feasible/practical to adapt it for LNG

[D&N]

10 hours ago, david63 said:

That would be dependant on whether it is feasible/practical to adapt it for LNG

Or other technologies that might become available before it's needed.