When to book air

[nobog]

I'm just the messenger:

 

Take these steps to make your air travel better

 

http://www.cnn.com/2013/12/05/travel/air-travel-tips/index.html?hpt=tr_c2

 

We (CNN) asked Kayak to crunch the numbers to determine when the average airfares from the United States to regions around the world are at their lowest:

 

U.S.A.: 3--5 weeks out $351

Caribbean: 1--2 weeks out $482

Central America: 5--8 weeks out $622

South America: 5 ½ months out $953

Europe: 7--8 weeks out $1,041

Asia: 8--9 months out $1,313

 

JK

[FlyerTalker]

And that remains a) a backward look in time predicated on the past market behavior of millions of individuals and b) nothing more than statistical averaging that bears absolutely NO relevance to any specific airline, routing and date.

 

But, rather than cover real news, it makes for a nice fluff feature that unsuspecting people will read. And believe. About par for today's media.

[Zach1213]

If someone wants to wait until one week out to book their air for a Caribbean vacation, good for them.

 

Me? No way in hell I am taking that risk. Not to mention how many Caribbean locations have minimal service

[CruiserBruce]

If someone wants to wait until one week out to book their air for a Caribbean vacation, good for them.

 

Me? No way in hell I am taking that risk. Not to mention how many Caribbean locations have minimal service

 

Amen. Yep wait until those last minutes. Want a window seat? Not likely. Prepare for the middle seat of 3 or 5.

 

Want to sit next to each other, or heaven forbid, 3 or 4 seats together? Not happening.

 

Most importantly, want the most direct route? Ain't happening.

[Keith1010]

And that remains a) a backward look in time predicated on the past market behavior of millions of individuals and b) nothing more than statistical averaging that bears absolutely NO relevance to any specific airline, routing and date.

 

But, rather than cover real news, it makes for a nice fluff feature that unsuspecting people will read. And believe. About par for today's media.

 

Well said.

[Gunner22aa]

I couldn't agree more with you. That article is almost as good as saying the winning numbers in last weeks lottery were 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, and 13 so they must be the winning numbers again this week. The only best time I have ever found to buy air was when I found a routing I liked at a price I was prepared to pay be it high or low.

[4774Papa]

And that remains a) a backward look in time predicated on the past market behavior of millions of individuals and b) nothing more than statistical averaging that bears absolutely NO relevance to any specific airline, routing and date.

 

But, rather than cover real news, it makes for a nice fluff feature that unsuspecting people will read. And believe. About par for today's media.

Agree,

i like buying early, but I do watch fares for many weeks before I take the plunge, unless an obviously low fare is there. Example, got RT from Orlando to Istanbul on United for $825 pp last September. Usually, flying to Europe will run a grand or more.

[parody]

Even if one doesn't agree on the relatively short time horizons for booking certain airline tickets, hopefully everyone can agree that booking a ticket one year in advance when seats are initially released will seldom yield the lowest fare. Yet, many folks believe that this is valid strategy. A good graph of historical, average airfares according to how far in advance they were booked can be found at

http://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel-tips/how-far-in-advance-should-i-book-my-flight/#more-800490460.

 

This analysis was based on the results of looking at 560 million fare searches. There is the expression that a million ants can't be wrong.

[Zach1213]

For my liking, the categories are also WAY too broad. Is 8-9 months out the best time for both Shanghai and Riyadh? Hanoi and Tel Aviv? They're all Asia, but incredibly different markets...

 

Same with South America - Quito and Sao Paulo are separated by not only huge distances but also huge disparities in the type of people who visit (i.e. business vs. leisure), which can lead to big price differences in air fare.

[agadora]

I am planning a 22-day cruise/land vacation to the Mediterranean next summer, flying from Minneapolis to Barcelona outbound and Rome to Minneapolis inbound, June 8-June 30. (We want to try to fly Delta.)

 

Looking at similar windows for February-May, I'm finding fares 1200-1300. In June the lowest fare is $1500-$1600. Are those differences because June is the high time for summer travel or because I'm still a bit far out to purchase airfare?

 

I've been watching fares since they were opened in July, where they started at around $1800; they have very gradually gone down, especially in the past couple of weeks.

 

Advice from you pro travelers out there?

[4774Papa]

I am planning a 22-day cruise/land vacation to the Mediterranean next summer, flying from Minneapolis to Barcelona outbound and Rome to Minneapolis inbound, June 8-June 30. (We want to try to fly Delta.)

 

Looking at similar windows for February-May, I'm finding fares 1200-1300. In June the lowest fare is $1500-$1600. Are those differences because June is the high time for summer travel or because I'm still a bit far out to purchase airfare?

 

I've been watching fares since they were opened in July, where they started at around $1800; they have very gradually gone down, especially in the past couple of weeks.

 

Advice from you pro travelers out there?

 

Fares in high season (summer) can be higher, buy May fares are generally not much different from June.

 

Sometimes open jaw flights are a bit more than a roundtrip. We did an open Jaw from JAX to Paris then from Barcelona to JAX for about $1200 last year in May. I think $1500 is a bit high. Have you tried the site starting with K (boat for one person). That will give you virtually all the airlines. You might want to fly Delta, as we do, but for $300 less pp, we have flown on United or USAIRways. Also, sometimes an airline in Delta's ff program (Skyteam) may have a cheaper fare and you can still get ff points for Delta.

[FlyerTalker]

Sometimes open jaw flights are a bit more than a roundtrip.

Open jaw fares are computed on this basis: If you are flying AAA to BBB, then an open jaw between BBB and CCC, then flying back CCC to AAA, the computation is:

 

Take roundtrip fare AAA-BBB and divide by 2. Take roundtrip fare CCC-AAA and divide by 2. Add together. Thus, an open jaw is half of the two roundtrips. Since both are dependent on the specific fare buckets and fare rules, you get a combination completely dependent on the specific flights/dates chosen. And an open jaw will be higher than one of the roundtrip fares, but exactly the same less than the roundtrip for the other city pair.

[waterbug123]

Looking at similar windows for February-May, I'm finding fares 1200-1300. In June the lowest fare is $1500-$1600. Are those differences because June is the high time for summer travel or because I'm still a bit far out to purchase airfare?

 

Yes. Although in my somewhat limited experience buying airfare to Europe during the "shoulder seasons" (April/May and Sept/Oct) I haven't found those to be much less than mid-summer rates. But overall, late spring to early fall is peak tourist season and largely the reason you're finding higher rates than for Feb/March.

[parody]

[When should I buy a multi-city fare?]

 

Like the advice given for buying a stock, you should not try to time the market to find the absolute lowest point of when to buy. Basically though, there is a strategy one should follow and it looks like you are off to a great start. You can use various findings to give you an idea of when fares will be at their lowest point, but, as the website I referenced above indicates, sometimes the absolute lowest fare occurred 1 day prior to the flight or alternatively 365 days prior to a flight. The actual strategy will vary depending on whether the flight is domestic or international, but basically begins with, "What is a good/reasonable fare", and "what volatility exists in the market I am interested". Generally, one should book a flight when the fare being charged is reasonable, all things considered (e.g., the availability of nearby airports being one major factor). If you think the current fares are on the high end of the historical range in fares, you can use various alert services to track all flights in this market, or yapta.com to track a finite set of definitive flights so that you can book quickly when fares reach a level that you are comfortable with. As you might imagine, knowing the airline's rules and costs for fare changes, and your tolerance for risk, can change the strategy for any given individual.

[chipmaster]

Its a vacation, we always book our airfare when we book the cruise.

 

You can always wait and prices could go down if demand is soft, also could go way up :eek: if demand is strong. Then of course there are the obvious seasonal patterns.

 

Its a vacation, a few bucks spent more locking in a good time is made up by being smart financially elsewhere ;)

[Smiles3usa]

Even if one doesn't agree on the relatively short time horizons for booking certain airline tickets, hopefully everyone can agree that booking a ticket one year in advance when seats are initially released will seldom yield the lowest fare. Yet, many folks believe that this is valid strategy. A good graph of historical, average airfares according to how far in advance they were booked can be found at

http://www.cheapair.com/blog/travel-tips/how-far-in-advance-should-i-book-my-flight/#more-800490460.

 

This analysis was based on the results of looking at 560 million fare searches. There is the expression that a million ants can't be wrong.

 

One thing is certain, there are no absolutes with respect to airfares. I booked my RT BOS - FCO for Oct 2014 in Nov 2013 at 702 pp on Turkish Airlines. Yes, Turkish Airlines is starting service in Boston in 2014 and they had "grand opening" fares. Today, the same flights I choose are at 900 pp. I seriously doubt that i will see another airfare for $700 RT. Perhaps, but I am not willing to take the chance. I'd agree that a year out is a good start for looking...and the best airfare will come somewhere down the line. The way to procure the best rates, however, remain, from my perspective in a willingness to pull the trigger on buying airfare whenever you find a fare that seems reasonable.

Edited December 15, 2013 by Smiles3usa

[travelplus]

One thing is certain, there are no absolutes with respect to airfares. I booked my RT BOS - FCO for Oct 2014 in Nov 2013 at 702 pp on Turkish Airlines. Yes, Turkish Airlines is starting service in Boston in 2014 and they had "grand opening" fares. Today, the same flights I choose are at 900 pp. I seriously doubt that i will see another airfare for $700 RT. Perhaps, but I am not willing to take the chance. I'd agree that a year out is a good start for looking...and the best airfare will come somewhere down the line. The way to procure the best rates, however, remain, from my perspective in a willingness to pull the trigger on buying airfare whenever you find a fare that seems reasonable.

 

Exactly. I did the same thing for our upcoming Brazil cruise in April. I went online in August and saw one way airfares for $800+ and then went onto a consolidator website and found an airfare for $474 on AeroMexico/TAM. The airfare was bought via a discounter and we can earn airline miles as well. I also could not find any cheaper airfares as it went up to $600 via other routings.

 

On the return I used United Miles for a Lufthansa/United ticket with all flights except the Seattle-SFO is flown on Lufthansa for 30,000 miles+85 in taxes.

 

I found my Father via Vyama a flight as he needs to visit relatives for a week then fly home. I got him an airfare of $1150 with the stop over on a combination of Alitalia and KLM. Same type of routing is going for $1850+.

 

So it pays to book when you see a good arifare.