Airfare is killing our cruise plans

[nobog]

I know airfares have gotten ridiculous. We are driving now.

 

So what would happen if you want a TA? or pick up a cruise in Seattle? Either you are staying "local" or would rather give your $ to Detroit et al than Big Airplane company. At $.056 per mile, you likely won't come out ahead.

JK

[waterbug123]

We are booked on a cruise out of San Juan March 8-15. Airfare has been coming down pretty steadily and now is at $347/RT on Delta. Is that as low as it's gonna get? No way to know that for sure until the day the plane leaves the ground on flight day.

 

It should we hold out a little longer? That's up to you. Fares might go up, fares might go down. Are you willing and able to pay MORE if you gamble and lose?

 

Also, I know it's a BIG no no flying in on the same day the ship leaves. But the ship doesn't leave until 8 pm that night. Would anyone recommend getting the first flight out that morning which would still leave 8+ hours if anything goes wrong?

 

 

While there's no way to know if that's the lowest the price will go, gambling and trying to buy your ticket on the ONE day fares are their lowest is a big risk. Frankly, $347 seems VERY reasonable to me for a flight to SJU, especially during peak spring break season. I'd jump on it. You have snoozed though, and there's a good chance you've already lost the chance to grab that fare by doing so.

 

As for same day flying, you need to consider how many flights DL has to SJU that day, that are after the one you're booked on. For example, I see 6 from ATL. Theoretically, if you are booked on the first one (8:15am) and something happens, you could try to get rebooked on the 9:55, 11:00, or 12:30. There are 2 more after that but they arrive too late to make the ship. And the 3 prior ones hold no guarantee of having space available. Also, are you connecting? If so, can you even get to ATL in time for the 8:15? If not, you've just reduced your chances because now you have fewer flights as possibilities to begin with. Lots to consider, but personally I never fly in same day of the cruise unless it's just a short 3 or 4 day cruise out of FL, i.e. not a big week-long vacation per se. I would never fly same day for a week or longer cruise.

[goose30]

I have conquered the "How to get cheap airfaire?" question. This really works

 

1. Check airfares daily for one week.

2. Choose the one fare that is best.

3. Wait till 00:42 on Wednesday of the next week

4. Put on you old plaid flannel shirt

5. At 00:56 on the same day sign on to Matrix

6. Check that fare and book.

 

This really works.

 

Not really, the whole point is you can't make a science out of picking an airfare any more than you can make a science out of picking a number on a roulette wheel.

 

But hey sometimes you can get lucky.

[MichaelInATL]

You guys have been very helpful. Thanks. Personally I'm 100% committed to putting all my eggs in the Plaid Matrix Theory Basket!

(Seriously, though, I work for a certain ATL based air travel company so I'm all set. But my buddy isn't so lucky and wanted me to try and get some feedback before he plopped down his shekels. As for flying in the same day as the cruise: he wants to. I do not. I've just heard too many horror stories. I'd much rather pay for a hotel than miss the entire cruise!)

Edited January 17, 2014 by MichaelInATL

[dchan865]

I have conquered the "How to get cheap airfaire?" question. This really works

 

1. Check airfares daily for one week.

2. Choose the one fare that is best.

3. Wait till 00:42 on Wednesday of the next week

4. Put on you old plaid flannel shirt

5. At 00:56 on the same day sign on to Matrix

6. Check that fare and book.

 

This really works.

 

Not really, the whole point is you can't make a science out of picking an airfare any more than you can make a science out of picking a number on a roulette wheel.

 

But hey sometimes you can get lucky.

 

About checking airfares daily, just try not to over do it. Last year when I was researching a land trip that involved open jawed flights at several countries. I mainly did it on Orbitz and I did it too much(got super OCD). After couple of weeks of constant daily searching, the price of the flights I was interested went up majorly. After staying off of it for awhile, price finally went back down. I learned that some of these travel sites use dynamic pricing model to determine airfare. So its quite possible that act of constant searching could drive up the cost of your own fare.

[FlyerTalker]

I learned that some of these travel sites use dynamic pricing model to determine airfare. So its quite possible that act of constant searching could drive up the cost of your own fare.

Wrong.

 

What "dynamic pricing" means is that prices change based upon sales activity and inventory allocated to the various fare buckets.

 

Searching once, then again, and again does NOT change the price. You aren't considering that there are 300 million Americans who might be buying the tickets that you are researching. What changes the price are the actual sales of seats in the various buckets combined with the continual application of yield management algorithms merged with time.

 

However, if you REALLY believe that.... just wait until 12:01am Mountain Time on early Tuesday morning (Monday night), log on, do one quick search and buy right then. You'll get the lowest possible price for that week.

 

:D:D

[vjmatty]

It always amazes me when people think that their own solitary activity of showing interest in a particular flight....one person out of 4 billion people in the world.... can have an effect on supply and demand.

 

Same with people thinking a cruise ship coming back to port affects airfare.... like the airlines are looking at cruise schedules and saying "ooh, there is a ship disembarking on January 25, better jack up those prices!" There are so many more flights than people realize that two thousand people hardly put a dent in the equation. Unless you are in a place like Miami or Fort Lauderdale with half a dozen ships, it is a drop in the bucket. I usually see 5 or 6 people at the most on the first leg of my return flight, then none on the second.

[TruckerDave]

The only real difference I see is if you can fly on Tue/Wed/Thur instead of the busy weekend and Mon/Fri. Thankfully my sched is so flexible I can fly in a couple days early and relax before hand if needed.

[bugeater2]

It always amazes me when people think that their own solitary activity of showing interest in a particular flight....one person out of 4 billion people in the world.... can have an effect on supply and demand.

 

Same with people thinking a cruise ship coming back to port affects airfare.... like the airlines are looking at cruise schedules and saying "ooh, there is a ship disembarking on January 25, better jack up those prices!" There are so many more flights than people realize that two thousand people hardly put a dent in the equation. Unless you are in a place like Miami or Fort Lauderdale with half a dozen ships, it is a drop in the bucket. I usually see 5 or 6 people at the most on the first leg of my return flight, then none on the second.

 

You have obviously never book an award flight in your life.

 

Please try to book an award flight the day the seat becomes available (typically 330 days in advance) and tell me that you had no effect on supply.

 

I single handedly took the only 3 saver award seats from LH from VCE-LAX this coming June and I can tell you that those seats had their supply directly effected by me and me alone.

[vjmatty]

You have obviously never book an award flight in your life.

 

Please try to book an award flight the day the seat becomes available (typically 330 days in advance) and tell me that you had no effect on supply.

 

I single handedly took the only 3 saver award seats from LH from VCE-LAX this coming June and I can tell you that those seats had their supply directly effected by me and me alone.

 

Actually I book reward flights twice every year, but since the discussion was about airfares I was talking about airfares, not reward flights.

 

ETA: Also please note you are talking about taking the reward flights available, not merely doing a search which is what my comment was referring to.

Edited January 18, 2014 by vjmatty

[HUNNY BUN]

This happened to me a few years ago when trying to plan a Med. Cruise. Found excellent cruise rates, but the air was absurd!!! Ended up going to Panama Canal on the Carnival Freedom, sailing out of FLL !

 

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[hdowney]

Airfare is a fierce nasty thing. Going to have to drop the guts of €1000 to get two of us return tix Dub - NOLA. So to balance it out we are going to do 4 days pre cruise and a couple post in NOLA

 

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[Zach1213]

Airfare is a fierce nasty thing. Going to have to drop the guts of €1000 to get two of us return tix Dub - NOLA. So to balance it out we are going to do 4 days pre cruise and a couple post in NOLA

 

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€1000 to fly two people across an ocean (and back) at 500mph in a €200,000,000+ aircraft burning 8000kg (or more) of fuel per hour in almost complete safety, with 15-20+ full-time staff onboard and countless more on the ground...doesn't sound too fierce or nasty to me. Sounds absolutely amazing.

[hdowney]

I agree in theory. However if we had only been going for the 7 day cruise I would have considered it steep, in that it is a lot of money to drop just to get to the cruise port. But since we are turning it into a two week vacation (with the before and after in NOLA) I think it balances quite well. Just as it is a lot of money for me (especially to drop in one fell swoop - as you do for airline tickets) it knocked the wind out of me at first

 

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[vjmatty]

I agree in theory. However if we had only been going for the 7 day cruise I would have considered it steep, in that it is a lot of money to drop just to get to the cruise port. But since we are turning it into a two week vacation (with the before and after in NOLA) I think it balances quite well. Just as it is a lot of money for me (especially to drop in one fell swoop - as you do for airline tickets) it knocked the wind out of me at first

 

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:) I get it. You're looking at the cost-per-day of your airfare based on the duration of your holiday. Makes sense to me, but this is not a good place to vent about airfares.... lots of airline apologists. ;)

[CruiserBruce]

:) I get it. You're looking at the cost-per-day of your airfare based on the duration of your holiday. Makes sense to me, but this is not a good place to vent about airfares.... lots of airline apologists. ;)

 

More likely there is a lot of people here who think air fares should be the same as 1970, that airlines should lose money just to sell tickets so your cruise fare will be more than your airfare, and have no thought for the apples and oranges that a cruise fare vs air fare comparison is.

 

The people that are "airline apologists" are actually people that travel a lot- think 100s of thousands of miles each year, buy airfares under all sorts of circumstances, and understand something about the airline business.

[vjmatty]

More likely there is a lot of people here who think air fares should be the same as 1970, that airlines should lose money just to sell tickets so your cruise fare will be more than your airfare, and have no thought for the apples and oranges that a cruise fare vs air fare comparison is.

 

The people that are "airline apologists" are actually people that travel a lot- think 100s of thousands of miles each year, buy airfares under all sorts of circumstances, and understand something about the airline business.

 

I guess I am in the middle of your two extremes..... I fly enough to understand a good deal of where the airlines are coming from, but not so much that I have forgotten how counterintuitive a lot of airfare pricing is to the less frequent flier. If you are annoyed by people venting about airfares, my warning them against posting such vents only helps your cause :)

 

Happy sailing-

Edited January 24, 2014 by vjmatty
something in my eye

[CruiserBruce]

I guess I am in the middle of your two extremes..... I fly enough to understand a good deal of where the airlines are coming from, but not so much that I have forgotten how counterintuitive a lot of airfare pricing is to the less frequent flier. If you are annoyed by people venting about airfares, my warning them against posting such vents only helps your cause :)

 

Happy sailing-

 

We are like you, in the middle of that group.

 

My point is complaining without knowledge (and a reasonable solution) doesn't solve anything. People need to do a little research, and understand how things work. And making apples to oranges comparisons solves even less. It just leads to more of the divisions that so plague our society.

Edited January 24, 2014 by CruiserBruce

[Zach1213]

:) I get it. You're looking at the cost-per-day of your airfare based on the duration of your holiday. Makes sense to me, but this is not a good place to vent about airfares.... lots of airline apologists. ;)

 

Not quite. We are realists. We are people who have a fundamental interest in the airline industry from a business standpoint. Do I like cheap airfare? Hell yes. I would love to be able to fly from Kansas City to Los Angeles for $200 roundtrip. I miss the days when I moved here from Chicago in the early 2000s and could get back to Chicago for $39 each way. I would kill to be able to fly to Morroco for $800 instead of the almost $1400 per person that I just spent to get my wife and I there...and I still consider that a pretty good price.

 

But I also understand and appreciate that airlines are for-profit companies who still, in truth, offer quite low fares. It wasn't all that long ago that most people couldn't afford to fly. Now, people can get from country to country in a matter of hours at a (in reality) decent price. I can spend $1200 and get from my house in suburban Kansas City to a completely different world in China with one stop and in less than 16 hours of flight time. That's amazing. $1200 is nothing to sneeze at, but what that $1200 gets me is incredible.

 

Apologists? Hardly. We understand, appreciate, and have a big interest in the airline industry. We study it, we are involved in it, and we (more often than not) spend more time on an airplane in a month that most people on CC spend in a year...or five years. Doesn't mean we don't want cheap fares, too. But we understand what cheap really is compared to the incredibly high expenses of running an airline.

 

Our purpose is really to cast another light on the subject. If someone says "the price is too high", we try to explain why it is or why it isn't, or give another way of looking at things.

 

(And there are plenty of better experts on this page than me. Compared to some, I know very little. But I'm going to lump myself in anyways ;))

Edited January 24, 2014 by Zach1213

[kenish]

I agree in theory. However if we had only been going for the 7 day cruise I would have considered it steep, in that it is a lot of money to drop just to get to the cruise port. But since we are turning it into a two week vacation (with the before and after in NOLA) I think it balances quite well. Just as it is a lot of money for me (especially to drop in one fell swoop - as you do for airline tickets) it knocked the wind out of me at first

 

I'm probably one of the "apologists" but understand your post. You're making a personal value judgement on the per diem cost of airfare for your trip. Totally reasonable and we all do that. Of course the value system will be completely different for others (and no doubt constantly changes for you as well)...that's one power of consumer economies.

 

The fare of €1000 is a constant...the airline is indifferent to whether you will travel to a 3 week cruise, close a €20 million deal, visit a dying family member, stay in a resort for a weekend, or research an article in-person. All valid reasons to travel and everyone on this board would rank them differently.

Edited January 24, 2014 by kenish

[thechicagoans]

Along with the other frequent flyers on here, I agree that airfares are still very reasonable in the grand scheme of things. Profitable airlines mean that our tax dollars are not subsidizing poorly run businesses and we should all be thankful for that.

 

Furthermore, just because certain locales have gotten more expensive, doesn't mean every destination has. Flying to China or India is extremely cheap right now. You can fly to both countries for $800 r/t and they are further away than Europe and South America. That's amazing.

 

One last thing to add, while airfare pricing is not going to be impacted by you searching over and over, package pricing as done by OTAs like Orbitz and Expedia can shift. They are smart enough to place cookies on your computer and see what your personal demand for something is. There is often differential pricing within browsers. On Hotwire, I often find $2-$5/night pricing differential between IE, Firefox, and Chrome. Orbitz spilled the beans a while back that they generally display more expensive hotels to Mac users (but charge the same price for the same hotel).