Predictions for the Next Twenty Years

[djhsolara]

Like many others have said, I see everything becoming a la carte. Much like a land-based hotel, you pay your fare and that is for your stateroom and use of the facilities like the pool. Maybe free food in the buffet but everything else for a fee.

 

I see shows going the way of the new Carnival program where they bring celebrities on at a port to give a "concert" that evening for a charge. There will be very limited free entertainment other than music around the ship.

 

I also see more of what Celebrity and NCL do with their "ship within a ship" areas. There will be an all-inclusive area with butlers for the rooms, a private pool and restaurants just for the area, etc for a premium price.

 

I also see more "cruises to nowhere" where the ship IS the destination and it just sails around off the coast.

[mamaofami]

If I'm still around, I'll be too old to cruise, but I do see the ships getting bigger and bigger and that's not to my liking at all.

 

Yes, they will charge for everything. I just booked a week at a very nice resort on the Jersey Shore and paid only for the room.All meals are extra. No evening entertainment either. That's definitely where cruising is heading. As it is now, it's a very inexpensive vacation.

 

 

[LMaxwell]

I could see HAL going through an revolutionary makeover from a "traditional-style" line to one much more contemporary but "nautical-themed". What that entails I am not exactly sure, but HAL can only sustain operations through economies of scale and catering to the taste of "coming of age" boomers and their kids and grandkids.

[Irish Eyes Are Sailing]

I see more and more extra charges. Your cruise fare will be just that - a fare for the stateroom and passage. Food possibly will be charged a la carte, and just about everything else. Years ago, the nice thing about cruising was that there was one fee paid upfront for everything (yes, even airfare) except for liquor or gambling, which was extra. I see that concept going away almost entirely. In the future, in my crystal ball, I see no difference between a regular land resort (not all-inclusive) and a cruise vacation. It will become a "cruise resort" with fees for everything. The only difference will be that it "floats" to different destinations, and the land resort just stays put......

 

For me, cruising will lose all its appeal at that point - JMHO of course.

[Katie333]

I see more and more extra charges. Your cruise fare will be just that - a fare for the stateroom and passage. Food possibly will be charged a la carte, and just about everything else. Years ago, the nice thing about cruising was that there was one fee paid upfront for everything (yes, even airfare) except for liquor or gambling, which was extra. I see that concept going away almost entirely. In the future, in my crystal ball, I see no difference between a regular land resort (not all-inclusive) and a cruise vacation. It will become a "cruise resort" with fees for everything. The only difference will be that it "floats" to different destinations, and the land resort just stays put......

 

For me, cruising will lose all its appeal at that point - JMHO of course.

 

I get your point. While I won't say cruising will entirely lose its appeal for me, I do like the fact that I have a pretty good idea upfront about what I'm getting and what I'm not (and what I'm getting = meals, accommodation, entertainment, transportation). If half of that or more is taken away, the cruise experience becomes a bit less special. And while a non-inclusive land resort can't compete with being at sea and being taken to multiple different ports, it would be an overall less enjoyable experience if I was worried about this cost and that cost, and not knowing where my expenses would land.

 

Unfortunately I agree that with the advent of multiple new streams of 'for-fee' extras onboard, this is a potential eventuality (maybe there will be a complete split between a true all inclusive cruise like the luxury lines and a totally non-inclusive product on the mainstream lines).

Edited February 17, 2014 by Katie333

[sail7seas]

What is interesting is how much cruising will cease to appeal to vacationers as they diminish what is offered.

 

The days of 'most' cruisers being on something of a liberal budget are gone.

When passengers need to worry about every dime they are spending including in order to eat, see a show, and most any entertainment, they may find cruising is no longer appealing in the way it is now. A large number of cruisers cruise today because it is the most affordable way to get to interesting places, have a vacation, enjoy sun and fun in the Caribbean.

 

Many who cruise could not dream of flying to one of the Caribbean islands, staying at a resort, paying resort fees, buying all meals, tipping even minimally, paying for every little thing. Cruising allow many more the ability to have a vacation they may soon not be able to enjoy if the trend continues in the direction many of us envision.

 

That could mean lots of empty cabins.

[cbr663]

Lots of great discussions and comments, and it will be interesting to see how HAL unfolds in the next 20 years. The cruise market in North America is a mature market and time will tell whether HAL will succeed in this mature market. I think that HAL's best strategy is to invest in its "Premium" status to clearly differentiate itself from its competitors.

[CJcruzer]

I see me looking at more land trips and river cruising .

 

Carol

[CJcruzer]

I see me looking at more land trips and river cruising .

 

Carol

[hattack]

I will be either in the ground or in a nursing home..my grandson and his family will bring me back a teeshirt from their cruise and I will be happy :)

 

20 years from now I see cruising going back to the way it was in the early 80's before the explosion of ship size and popularity...celean cabin, decent food, few activities, lost of peace and quiet and spending time as a couple who are on the boat to rest and get awsy from the stress of daiky life

[Taxguy77]

They do just that in Asia out of Hong Kong and Singapore on a daily basis. One of those "gambling/casino ships" is Norwegian Cruise Line's former Skyward and another is then RCCL's former Sun Viking

 

We used to have 2 gambling ships on the South Texas coast. They got past the line so they could open the casino, but were still in cellphone range.

They served an included lunch on the daytime cruise that was very good.

[Irish Eyes Are Sailing]

What is interesting is how much cruising will cease to appeal to vacationers as they diminish what is offered.

 

The days of 'most' cruisers being on something of a liberal budget are gone.

When passengers need to worry about every dime they are spending including in order to eat, see a show, and most any entertainment, they may find cruising is no longer appealing in the way it is now. A large number of cruisers cruise today because it is the most affordable way to get to interesting places, have a vacation, enjoy sun and fun in the Caribbean.

 

Many who cruise could not dream of flying to one of the Caribbean islands, staying at a resort, paying resort fees, buying all meals, tipping even minimally, paying for every little thing. Cruising allow many more the ability to have a vacation they may soon not be able to enjoy if the trend continues in the direction many of us envision.

 

That could mean lots of empty cabins.

 

There is much truth to your statement.

 

Unless the future holds many people of abundant economic means, I see the industry shrinking if it continues on the "fee-charging path" it is on right now. It may price the middle class person right off the ship....and onto a land resort, if they are lucky enough to find one they can afford......even domestically here in the U.S. The middle class is becoming a dinosaur in society. The rich will find their fun, and the poor don't pursue it in fancy vacations. If the middle class find they are left at the door by the cruise industry, they will find some other amusement.......and the cruise lines will be catering to those that can afford the fees and fares. Which may lead to a downsizing of the number of ships afloat.........JMHO however. I am sure others disagree.

[Spender Nui]

As I think about it -- I see the cruise lines charging for every item you order -- no more free food. They may even charge for butter and rolls.

You will pay to see the shows.

Just like going to a restaurant.

 

And can you imagine what that will do to the already abysmal service?????

[sail7seas]

There is much truth to your statement.

 

Unless the future holds many people of abundant economic means, I see the industry shrinking if it continues on the "fee-charging path" it is on right now. It may price the middle class person right off the ship....and onto a land resort, if they are lucky enough to find one they can afford......even domestically here in the U.S. The middle class is becoming a dinosaur in society. The rich will find their fun, and the poor don't pursue it in fancy vacations. If the middle class find they are left at the door by the cruise industry, they will find some other amusement.......and the cruise lines will be catering to those that can afford the fees and fares. Which may lead to a downsizing of the number of ships afloat.........JMHO however. I am sure others disagree.

 

 

You said it so much better than I did.

Thank you. :)

 

That is, indeed, the message I tried to convey.

 

[airlink diva]

What is interesting is how much cruising will cease to appeal to vacationers as they diminish what is offered.

 

The days of 'most' cruisers being on something of a liberal budget are gone.

When passengers need to worry about every dime they are spending including in order to eat, see a show, and most any entertainment, they may find cruising is no longer appealing in the way it is now. A large number of cruisers cruise today because it is the most affordable way to get to interesting places, have a vacation, enjoy sun and fun in the Caribbean.

 

Many who cruise could not dream of flying to one of the Caribbean islands, staying at a resort, paying resort fees, buying all meals, tipping even minimally, paying for every little thing. Cruising allow many more the ability to have a vacation they may soon not be able to enjoy if the trend continues in the direction many of us envision.

 

That could mean lots of empty cabins.

I so agree!

Last year I was looking at the option of sailing with HAL on a South American segment. Since I mainly go solo, I know the pricing is going to be slightly higher,but even with an inside cabin, I was priced out.

Instead, I was able to do 10 days in Peru at a more reasonable rate.

Would love to do another 14 day cruise on HAL, but once again, priced out and looking at either Peru (found a great round trip for under $400!) or Chile.

As for the case of al carte cruise, I sadly see this also happening. It will get to the point just paying for the cabin and port fees and anything else either a bundle package prior to sailing or offered once boarding. If you forgo this, having to swipe to dine at any dining, to the shows.

[cruiseapril]

It's been said that "fashions" go in cycles- so perhaps cruisers will tire of the larger ships and a demand for more intimate ships will reappear. Anything is possible. A retro-cruise popularity?

 

Perhaps more ships will dock overnight more often to give people more time in favored ports. (We sure would like to do this in Curacao and Barbados.)

 

Maybe ships will have "cruise for a week/ stay for a week/ cruise for a week specials."

 

IMHO ships will offer more 5 and 7 day cruises- unless the economy booms.

 

We see more theme cruises on the horizon. More charters too.

 

Don't know how some ships offer so many sports venues- now there are bumper cars? How far can this go?

 

Although there will be many more casual and sporty cruises- we do see

a possible retro to elegance for some ships- as some folks will desire "cruises from the past."

[Karennella]

I'm not sure how it will be done but cruises will have to cater to people from many more countries with very varied needs and wants.

[david,Mississauga]

A lot of this is wishful thinking, but I predict a limited return of liner voyages as long-distance air travel becomes more abominable. HAL, of course, already does many one-way cruises that are used as liner voyages. I expect (hope for) more liners crossing the Atlantic.

 

Some of the traditions of the past will be restored, mainly a class system. It is already happening. It will be a hard sell to call the classes "First and Tourist" but Cunard has long had its "Grills" and other lines have the Haven, Yacht Club, Suite Class. This could cut down on the angst about formal wear. Traditionally those in First dressed formally almost all the time whilst those in Tourist dressed less formally, although on the major lines there was little of this casual nonsense. Cunard's QE2, for one, required jacket and tie every night. This will deter many people, so regrettably I will have to agree that in the short term casual dress will become acceptable in Tourist or whatever it may be called. But in 20 years I think the pendulum will have swung back and most people will enjoy dressing up again.

 

Another tradition I predict will return is the reserved deck chair for a modest fee. This was generally a tradition only on transatlantic liners. Other liners, such as those of P&O and Union-Castle, did not have this system. The reserved deck chairs were not as common on cruises, but on our first HAL cruise on the Rotterdam 40 years ago, deck chairs were reserved for a small charge.

 

One final prediction: the fascination with cafeterias at sea will diminish. It may have less to do with a desire for more formal dining than a realisation that the buffet is one avoidable place where Norovirus spreads. Decades ago there were rarely large numbers of people ill with vomiting/diarrhoea (the name Norovirus hadn't been coined then) and of course I can't prove it, but I suspect this had to do with the fact that cafeterias were rare. Generally, passengers ate all meals in their assigned dining saloon.

 

By no means am I suggesting that everything was better long ago - far from it. For one thing: I love having a balcony cabin, even on a cool windy Atlantic crossing.

[sail7seas]

A lot of this is wishful thinking, but I predict a limited return of liner voyages as long-distance air travel becomes more abominable. HAL, of course, already does many one-way cruises that are used as liner voyages. I expect (hope for) more liners crossing the Atlantic.

 

Some of the traditions of the past will be restored, mainly a class system. It is already happening. It will be a hard sell to call the classes "First and Tourist" but Cunard has long had its "Grills" and other lines have the Haven, Yacht Club, Suite Class. This could cut down on the angst about formal wear. Traditionally those in First dressed formally almost all the time whilst those in Tourist dressed less formally, although on the major lines there was little of this casual nonsense. Cunard's QE2, for one, required jacket and tie every night. This will deter many people, so regrettably I will have to agree that in the short term casual dress will become acceptable in Tourist or whatever it may be called. But in 20 years I think the pendulum will have swung back and most people will enjoy dressing up again.

 

Another tradition I predict will return is the reserved deck chair for a modest fee. This was generally a tradition only on transatlantic liners. Other liners, such as those of P&O and Union-Castle, did not have this system. The reserved deck chairs were not as common on cruises, but on our first HAL cruise on the Rotterdam 40 years ago, deck chairs were reserved for a small charge.

 

One final prediction: the fascination with cafeterias at sea will diminish. It may have less to do with a desire for more formal dining than a realisation that the buffet is one avoidable place where Norovirus spreads. Decades ago there were rarely large numbers of people ill with vomiting/diarrhoea (the name Norovirus hadn't been coined then) and of course I can't prove it, but I suspect this had to do with the fact that cafeterias were rare. Generally, passengers ate all meals in their assigned dining saloon.

 

By no means am I suggesting that everything was better long ago - far from it. For one thing: I love having a balcony cabin, even on a cool windy Atlantic crossing.

 

 

I agree there will have to be some transition back to those who pay so much more getting so much more. Many who pay full fare for those suites are becoming dissatisified the experience is being diminished and amentities attached to the extra square footage are fading away. For those who get inexpensive upgrades fine but for those who pay many times the fare, it is not fine. We see the suite experience as less than it was not so long ago but the fares for some itineraries are over $500 pp per day.

 

For some on the ship, it is a very moderately priced vacation and their expectations are commensurate. For those paying a great deal more, their expectations are higher. Something has to give. They cannot keep consistently taking more away and expect we will continue to pay.

 

I realize there are many out there reading this who have a negative reaction to what I have written.

That's okay. If you wish to, before you sputter and resent what I've said, think about it a bit and see if there isn't a little in the comment with which you can agree.

 

Edited February 18, 2014 by sail7seas

[cruiseapril]

Agree about liners becoming more favored for transatlantic (and other) travel.

 

The planes are just too uncomfortable- and the skies too crowded in some areas.

Edited February 18, 2014 by cruiseapril

[buckirj1]

...I think you'll see a growing trend of cruises to nowhere for a week. It'll save on port fees, the ship can ambient slowly to avoid burning fuel and still have al revenue producers open. I'm honestly surprised RCCL or NCL hasn't tried this yet. It'd essentially be a floating resort.

 

I have to admit I kind of like this idea, which dovetails nicely with a previous thread about shorter cruises. A 4-5 day cruise to nowhere has some appeal.

 

Also appealing is another poster's idea of more cruises overnighting in ports, as currently done in places like Bermuda. The examples of Curacao and Barbados are terrific. There are probably others. I'd love an overnight in Halifax in place of a throwaway port like Bar Harbor.

[sail7seas]

And therein is the catch.......

 

Cruise ships (HAL) are trying to be all things to all people yet all people do not now and in the future will not all want the same thing.

 

Buckirj above calls Bar Harbor a throw away port yet we like it. We would enjoy an overnight in Quebec City and even Montreal but not necessarily in Halifax though we really like Halifax and always have a great day there. That is not a port for my first choice to overnight on that itinerary. :)

 

The trick will be for the cruise lines to guess who will be their customers going forward, how much will they be willing to spend and what will they call priorities? What will be 'make or break' for them to not only cruise once but to return?

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 2014 by sail7seas

[sppunk]

I have to admit I kind of like this idea, which dovetails nicely with a previous thread about shorter cruises. A 4-5 day cruise to nowhere has some appeal.

 

Also appealing is another poster's idea of more cruises overnighting in ports, as currently done in places like Bermuda. The examples of Curacao and Barbados are terrific. There are probably others. I'd love an overnight in Halifax in place of a throwaway port like Bar Harbor.

 

My emphasis.

 

See, here is the catch. I'd LOVE an overnight in BH (heck a few!). A cruise is a by nature a sampling, local laws and fears of utility usage prevent long ship stays.

[cruiseapril]

sp- It seems possible to have a night or two in some ports- even a night would be good. Everyone has their favored ports- so maybe cruise lines could rotate overnights-for example: one overnight in Halifax on one cruise and one in Bar Harbor on another.

 

Anything seems possible- in the past few years several cruise lines have started using new departure ports. Panama?

[sail7seas]

sp- It seems possible to have a night or two in some ports- even a night would be good. Everyone has their favored ports- so maybe cruise lines could rotate overnights-for example: one overnight in Halifax on one cruise and one in Bar Harbor on another.

 

Anything seems possible- in the past few years several cruise lines have started using new departure ports. Panama?

 

 

People are complaining about air fare costs to FLL......

 

can you imagine the cost of air to Panama from Canada/US East Coast and even West Coast cities?

 

Those who have to pay high air fare may choose to not sail.