Time To For A Reality Check For Mr. Fain

[bouhunter]

I don't even need to read the 300+ posts, this thread is halarious. RCCL will charge what they want. Pay or move on. ..................

[bouhunter]

Royal Caribbean is causing confusion with their new pricing the $50.00 deposits to hold a cruise not to mention all the WOW sails.

 

I just finished a Serenade Nola to Boston cruise we booked because our friends where sailing it. They booked it when it was 1st released while on board a cruise. We booked about 6 months out.

They paid $700.00pp less and we had to struggle to get a balcony not to mention that E1, 2 and 3 designations seem totally random.

No on line discounts were available until after the final payment, I watched and if we had waited we could have cruised at $800.00 pp less using a discount site.

We were told the ship was full but staff said it was not I think it sailed with about 100 cabins empty?

The same couple booked Serenade, Quebec City to Ft L when 1st available while on a cruise I was able to book a same category cabin through a discount TA 11 months out $800.00pp less then they booked it for. The cruise now shows as full.

They will likely cancel before final payment and try a discount TA.

 

I booked a 2016 TransAtlantic cruise while on the Serenade it was $700.00pp more then what our friends paid booking through Royal on line exactly 30 days earlier and our taxes and port fee's were double what our friends paid. Staff could not explain the price difference in fee's.

 

I have no intention of paying $3800.00 for a 13 day TA with 8 sea days and only 3 Caribbean ports to get back from a vacation in Europe after my friends have bought it a month earlier for much less.

I put $50.00 down on the cruise and will cancel before final payment the ship was basically full with minimal selection.

 

Royals minimal deposit system seems to be filling ships but makes it difficult for those who intend to cruise a specific cruise to select a decent room.

The system allows people to drop the booking or transfer before final sail date with no penalty it is not like the airlines where once bought you are committed.

 

I believe Royal will shortly be faced with massive booking problems as I have spoken to many cruisers who hold deposits on 10 bookings or more with no real intent to sail. They intend to just move them to other cruises before final payment until they find a cruise they want.

 

I believe the way the lines are modifying the pooling of gratuities is to keep staff happy if the ships do start to sail with an increase in empty cabins.

 

I do not foresee smooth seas ahead for Royal in the future.

 

I gave up three lines in. Really!!!?????;):confused::rolleyes: The post is hard to follow and just doesn't justify the time to even try to understand it......

Edited May 1, 2015 by bouhunter

[insidecabin]

Small point

The on board revenue includes the a share of the concession fees.

 

Having read the 10k 17% of booking revenues is paid out on a per passenger basis(commissions,fees per pax etc).

[RocketMan275]

 

Revenue models are pretty complex items. I had departments dealing with strategic pricing, market research, contracts, and distribution reporting to me before I retired a few years ago. You use a lot of data designing them, but in the end it is still as much of an art as it is a science. Not so much in the day to day execution of them, but in the assumptions that you use to drive the day to day changes. Those assumptions are used to assemble the formulas that you think will maximize revenue. You revise them based upon feedback from the actual data, but still you are dealing with future events when you assemble them.

 

When you have an industry where the CEO of the second largest company (Fain) says repeatedly over the years that they have been unable to raise fares. That the analysts that follow the industry says that the main players do not have pricing power, you can pretty much assume that they do not. If they had it they would have used it.

 

 

I understand the complexities of revenue models. I started as an engineer, did some time as an ops research guy, and then went into project management. I'm retired now too. Bet we could have some good discussions.

[RDC1]

I understand the complexities of revenue models. I started as an engineer, did some time as an ops research guy, and then went into project management. I'm retired now too. Bet we could have some good discussions.

 

Yep we probably could.

[RDC1]

RCL might have more problems then expected in shifting capacity. Just saw that their plans for sending Ovation of the Seas to New Zealand and Australia have run into a snag since it is too big to Dock in Auckland. Apparently the City has put plans to build a dock big enough for it on hold.

[The_Big_M]

RCL might have more problems then expected in shifting capacity. Just saw that their plans for sending Ovation of the Seas to New Zealand and Australia have run into a snag since it is too big to Dock in Auckland. Apparently the City has put plans to build a dock big enough for it on hold.

 

Auckland was just a visiting port, so readily substituted.

 

The boarding port is Sydney, which is the main draw and prepared some time ago.

[RDC1]

Auckland was just a visiting port, so readily substituted.

 

The boarding port is Sydney, which is the main draw and prepared some time ago.

 

Most cruise lines do a 14 day Sydney to Auckland/Auckland to Sydney route as their major New Zealand Cruise. Celebrity has the Solstice doing that route for example. I expect that RCI was planning to do the same. Currently RCI does not have good coverage of the New Zealand cruise market being limited by their out and back cruises with relatively few New Zealand ports. If they are going to expand in the market they need to add cruises that end/start in Auckland. Now they could use one of their existing ships to do that and shift the new ship to doing the out and back routes, except the larger ship doesn't fit with the other routes the smaller ships currently do.

 

It is apparently a big enough issue that the articles I have read have questioned in RCI will change the deployment plans without being able to dock in Auckland.

[The_Big_M]

Most cruise lines do a 14 day Sydney to Auckland/Auckland to Sydney route as their major New Zealand Cruise. Celebrity has the Solstice doing that route for example. I expect that RCI was planning to do the same. Currently RCI does not have good coverage of the New Zealand cruise market being limited by their out and back cruises with relatively few New Zealand ports. If they are going to expand in the market they need to add cruises that end/start in Auckland. Now they could use one of their existing ships to do that and shift the new ship to doing the out and back routes, except the larger ship doesn't fit with the other routes the smaller ships currently do.

 

It is apparently a big enough issue that the articles I have read have questioned in RCI will change the deployment plans without being able to dock in Auckland.

 

Actually, most cruise lines (Princess, HAL, RCL, P&O) do a round trip out of Sydney covering NZ, with Celebrity the main exception doing one-ways.

 

This is probably because the one-ways are significantly less popular, likely due to the need to book flights and deal with luggage for another part of the trip. Even Celebrity has introduced more round trips in recent seasons.

 

Although the market trends are not going the way you suggest, even if that was an issue, Ovation which is the one being talked about was only being relocated for a very brief season. This is out of China which is her main market and with only 4 trips planned.

 

Setting up one ways out of Auckland would not be the defining issue in this situation.

[tinkertwo]

Hi Whitecap in my experience RCCL cruisers are nothing like this person.

 

And he is probably a poser anyway-if you have real jack you are on Crystal or Regent, right?

 

The rich arrogant people I deal with I am ok with because they have legit bank. The deluded arrogant "upper middle class guy" in a mountain of debt annoys me to extremes.

 

He will put down a fellow who works as a tow truck driver who saves for eons to do something special never being smart enough to realize his entire financial well-being is dependent on a three digit score arbitrarily calculated by people he will never meet. He needs to be cool to that tow truck driver because they are closer in need and class than he realizes, but the ego simply won't allow it.

 

Enjoy your cruise and welcome to the RCCL cruiser family.

 

where's the like button?? :)

[buddylover]

Dropping prices brought about cheap cruisers who did not spend once on the ship. They CAN afford to sail with empty staterooms. When the discounting started and the cheap cruisers came, onboard revenue went down as much as 75%.

 

He is a smart man and I for one am glad prices are going up and the discounting will come to an end!

 

And WHO do you work for??? RCI no doubt......unbelievable!!!

[buddylover]

But only if raising prices and stopping discounting DOESN'T find them with a diminishing BOTTOM LINE!!! Think about it!!

Shareholders.

[RDC1]

Actually, most cruise lines (Princess, HAL, RCL, P&O) do a round trip out of Sydney covering NZ, with Celebrity the main exception doing one-ways.

 

This is probably because the one-ways are significantly less popular, likely due to the need to book flights and deal with luggage for another part of the trip. Even Celebrity has introduced more round trips in recent seasons.

 

Although the market trends are not going the way you suggest, even if that was an issue, Ovation which is the one being talked about was only being relocated for a very brief season. This is out of China which is her main market and with only 4 trips planned.

 

Setting up one ways out of Auckland would not be the defining issue in this situation.

 

Holland America, Princess and Celebrity all do one ways between Sidney and Auckland.

 

The announcement was to do 5 routes out of Sydney with 4 being one way to Auckland with the corresponding return. similar to Princess Diamond spending the China winter season in Australia and Singapore generally.

 

I will still point out that the articles that identified the issue all considered it to be a big enough issue to raise doubt about the deployment plans.

Edited May 4, 2015 by RDC1

[delirious9876]

I don't even need to read the 300+ posts, this thread is halarious. RCCL will charge what they want. Pay or move on. ..................

 

Halarious ?????????

[John&LaLa]

Halarious ?????????

 

Correcting spelling violates forum guidelines.

[The_Big_M]

Holland America, Princess and Celebrity all do one ways between Sidney and Auckland.

 

They may do them, but as mentioned they're in the minority, and less popular. Market forces are not requiring that.

 

By the way, the location and major city in this market is actually spelt "Sydney."

 

I will still point out that the articles that identified the issue all considered it to be a big enough issue to raise doubt about the deployment plans.

 

I've seen articles claim, and hint at, a lot of things. Being in a non-specific 'article' doesn't make it fact.

Edited May 4, 2015 by The_Big_M

[RDC1]

They may do them, but as mentioned they're in the minority, and less popular. Market forces are not requiring that.

 

By the way, the location and major city in this market is actually spelt "Sydney."

 

 

 

I've seen articles claim, and hint at, a lot of things. Being in a non-specific 'article' doesn't make it fact.

 

As I spelled it in my previous posts. Typos do happen.

 

 

Unfortunately not all cruise lines post their schedules the same distance out.

 

Princess posts about the furthest out. When it comes to cruises originating in Auckland they have 7 in the rest of 2015, 10 in 2016 and 17 in 2017. That gives an idea about growth in cruises that start from there, not just visit during a cruise that originates else where.

 

As far as the articles you can find one in the cruise critic new area.

 

As far as others

 

This one discussed the original plan prior to the change by the city to not go ahead with expansion

 

http://www.eturbonews.com/57717/cruise-new-zealand-big-ships-are-coming

 

This one was discussing the decision not to expand

 

http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/mammoth-cruise-liner-turned-away-after-ports-auckland-compromise-6305476

 

This one discusses that without Auckland NZ cruises are harder to sell so it will probably not visit NZ at all

 

http://cruisenewzealand.org.nz/2015/05/port-decision-jeopardises-cruise-sector-nz-economy/

 

You can find about 50 or 60 articles like these using Google.

 

So there seems to be sufficient detail that the just announced deployment plan including NZ will need to change.

 

I can also point you at a few articles talking about how RCI is having problems capturing the Chinese component of the Australian cruise market. Something that the Ovation deployment was intended to help solve. The Chinese are major players in the NZ real estate market, especially in Auckland these days, where many are purchasing homes. Thus the Auckland stops are a draw for the Chinese in the Australian/New Zealand region.

 

Another impact will be that other than New Zealand most of the ships do trips up to some of the islands like New Caledonia. Problem is not much infrastructure. Kind of like Tahiti. Great visiting on a small ship 650 or less. Visiting on a large ship pretty much overwhelms the ability for excursions.

 

 

Will be interesting to see what they do. But I am pretty certain it will be different then they originally planned.

Edited May 4, 2015 by RDC1

[Siora7777]

I always book early and spend nothing onboard. I haven't been able to take advantage of a last minute deal but I haven't seen a really great last minute deal for RCCL anyway. I guess I'm unaffected with this turn of events.

[The_Big_M]

You can find about 50 or 60 articles like these using Google.

 

So there seems to be sufficient detail that the just announced deployment plan including NZ will need to change.

 

Yes, those are articles discussing it, and obviously the itineraries may well exclude Auckland, so change in that respect. The above you linked does not suggest that the deployment to its base in Sydney, or the Australian trips would need to change.

 

I can also point you at a few articles talking about how RCI is having problems capturing the Chinese component of the Australian cruise market. Something that the Ovation deployment was intended to help solve. The Chinese are major players in the NZ real estate market, especially in Auckland these days, where many are purchasing homes. Thus the Auckland stops are a draw for the Chinese in the Australian/New Zealand region.

 

That's a really long bow. The Chinese are also big players in the property market in other cities that Ovation will be visiting on the AU redeployment.

 

However, for most Chinese I daresay they will not be using the visits for property purposes as there are far more efficient ways to do that. And if you're interested in an auction that's in the next weeks, it won't be there by the time your cruise comes along. Similarly if you make a booking for a December cruise, who knows what property will be available.

 

Another impact will be that other than New Zealand most of the ships do trips up to some of the islands like New Caledonia. Problem is not much infrastructure. Kind of like Tahiti. Great visiting on a small ship 650 or less. Visiting on a large ship pretty much overwhelms the ability for excursions.

 

Yes, but given the very short number of trips planned here, there's likely the opportunity for only one Pacific Islands trip, if that. It would be quite simple to do other AU based trips. Also, even without Auckland, it can still go other NZ ports. You posted one link to a site that opines against that - but it's the industry site with a strong vested interest in over egging its case, so hardly independent analysis.

 

Will be interesting to see what they do. But I am pretty certain it will be different then they originally planned.

 

Given they originally planned to come to Auckland and may well not be able to visit Auckland now, that is highly likely.

 

But as for the claims of cancelling the entire relocation, that is extremely unlikely.

[John&LaLa]

How did this turn into a deployment discussion?

[insidecabin]

Prices a a capacity issue deployment determines capacity.

[John&LaLa]

Prices a a capacity issue deployment determines capacity.

 

Ok, :what:

[celebrity]

After telling a co- worker about the fabulous cruise on Quantum, he decided to look into a cruise for his family of 5 for Anthem in August 2016.

He was quoted $8,459 for 2 connecting inside staterooms on a 9 day cruise. :eek:

These prices are beyond the average families vacation budget.

I suggested NCL and he can get a 7 day to Bermuda for $3k.

Which cruise do you think he booked?

Edited May 10, 2015 by celebrity

[A2Mich]

Well a new ship is going to have high prices. Even Oasis and Allure tend to have overall higher prices than Freedom class or Vision class ships do. They're not brand new anymore yet still fetch higher prices.

[merlindog22]

Well if they keep putting the prices up, they won't need any more new ships. No body will be able to afford to sail on any of them. Its not just the actual cruise fair either, there are becoming more and more things to pay for whilst on board now a days as well.

I am beginning to think that Royal Caribbean are on a death wish.