Anthem....What if?

[sblair]

After watching the time lapse video tonight of just how bad the waves were getting it made me think, how could you even deploy the life boats if needed?

 

I'm starting this as a separate thread because this is less about the facts of what occurred with Anthem and more about the hypothetical of any ship in that situation.

 

As an Engineer, I can tell you a catastrophe is rarely caused by one failure, but a combination of failures.

 

So the question is, what if there was a call to abandon ship in the height of that storm. Would it even be possible? You've got the extreme motions of the ship and very high winds. You've got people on outside decks now trying to fight that to get into the life boats, and then you have the challenge of even trying to get them deployed.

 

So, what would the situation be that would likely cause this... I assume the most obvious would be loss of propulsion. It's widely known to have happened in multiple situations of cruise ships completely losing propulsion. The Azipods probably also aren't the best type of system to handle this kind of seas, and from the other thread it looks like this may have been an instance where 1 of the 2 Azipods did indeed fail.

 

So if you lose propulsion, the ship is going to turn fairly quickly where it is taking the waves broadside, the listing will get much much worse than it was and at some point has the very likely possibility to roll. How long does that take?

 

As the listing gets worse, how does that affect the ability of launching life boats? It's been seen in other situations like the Costa Concordia where once it lists past a certain angle it becomes impossible to launch them on one side if not both.

 

Yes, the situation with Anthem turned out good with no serious injuries, but I do seriously fear the situation could have quite easily gone the other way and it brings serious questions to mind about the ability to evacuate if it had.

 

Maybe some of the folks on here might have some insight. Given this, an NTSB investigation certainly makes a lot more sense to me now. There are plenty of "close-calls" in aviation that happen and get investigated to prevent them from happening again. I think this could have been a closer call than we realize....

 

Scott

Edited February 12, 2016 by sblair

[mcatmcat]

Never though about it [emoji52]. It was a mistake to take that ship toward the storm [emoji20]

[NoobCruise]

The Concordia was not able to drop the life boats on one side when the list got too far over. They got stuck on top of the ship. I don't know what degree list they were at when that happened.

[BillB48]

The Concordia was not able to drop the life boats on one side when the list got too far over. They got stuck on top of the ship. I don't know what degree list they were at when that happened.

 

I think you have wandered into urban myth territory:). All boats were launched on the starboard side and on the port side, the high side the only thing left are life rafts that failed to be deployed and the work boats.

 

The ''high'' side;

 

Edited February 12, 2016 by BillB48

[The_Big_M]

I think you have wandered into urban myth territory:). All boats were launched on the starboard side and on the port side, the high side the only thing left are life rafts that failed to be deployed and the work boats.

 

The ''high'' side;

 

 

Actually he was quite right.

 

3 lifeboats were not deployed from the port side - the high side as in your picture.

 

Though barely visible in your picture, you can see them more clearly here:

 

More details of the boats launched and not launched is here:

http://www.rina.org.uk/costa_concordia_passenger_evacuation.html

[north29]

I hate to say it but as a OLD BOATER with much experience, many people will not make it home. Death from hypothermia(even in a WET life boat). would be a major factor just like drowning. If you have ever been in a life boat as a tender, you would realize that they are not made for that type of sea.

Good news, is that the ship took it well as could be expected. As noted above, the propulsion system did not fail, thank the sea gods for that.

It will be interesting to see the outcome of the investigation by RC and I guess the maritime lawyers.

[dthompsond1]

Also , I believe, all cruise ships have to have enough lifeboats/liferafts to accommodate all passengers and crew on each side of the ship so if they cannot be launched on one side there will still be enough room for everyone on the other side. Though getting into a liferaft in such conditions would be nigh on impossible I should think.

[rolloman]

I do not get why some people are so obsessed with the lifeboats? In the height of a storm like this, they will never be a an option. Any attempt to get into the water would end ones life. In a lifeboat you would be like an ice cube in a drink shaker, in a life vest you would quickly drown and even if you are a world class swimmer, you would succumb to hypothermia. As for the coast guard or Navy...they are not sending a ship or a helicopter into this storm. I will go further to say if a coast guard cutter happened to be nearby....again there is absolutely nothing they could do until the storm is over. I am an optimistic person but it is illogical to think anything outside of the fact the Anthem and its passengers were on their own.

Edited February 12, 2016 by rolloman

[BillB48]

Actually he was quite right.

 

3 lifeboats were not deployed from the port side - the high side as in your picture.

 

Though barely visible in your picture, you can see them more clearly here:

 

More details of the boats launched and not launched is here:

http://www.rina.org.uk/costa_concordia_passenger_evacuation.html

 

Thanks for that pic Big M... that clearly shows a few boats did not get away. Of course a timely order to launch the boats would have been the ticket!

 

Also , I believe, all cruise ships have to have enough lifeboats/liferafts to accommodate all passengers and crew on each side of the ship so if they cannot be launched on one side there will still be enough room for everyone on the other side. Though getting into a liferaft in such conditions would be nigh on impossible I should think.

 

If chengkp75 sees this thread he would be the one to give the most accurate answer... but there will not be room for passengers on the other side if they are unable to launch boats on one side. While there is a excess in capacity of life boats for passengers on a particular side, there is not that much available to handle the other half of the ship. In general life boats are for passengers and some crew, most of the crew are assigned to life rafts. Life boats are to be able to be launched with a considerable list, I don't know what that figure is however.

[KazAllen]

I know this is not relevant to this thread but about the Concordia - how come there were casualties etc from this ship, it is in fairly shallow water and so close to shore, I don't understand.

[Clarea]

I know this is not relevant to this thread but about the Concordia - how come there were casualties etc from this ship, it is in fairly shallow water and so close to shore, I don't understand.

I believe some were trapped inside the ship.

[captdave]

I have done the Life Raft Drill many times (Lear-35/36/55 - Citation X - Challenger 604 - Gulfstream IV aircraft). You don't want to do it for real.

 

It's hard to do in a heated swimming pool, forget about the North Atlantic.

 

If you go over water the safest place is off the East Coast of the US. We have the best Coast Guard in the world, most places don't have any. No one is out to kill you, like 95% of Africa!

 

If I was looking for a place to ditch an aircraft it would be off the US East Cost, we have everything here (doesn't mean it would be easy).

 

There is no excuse for launching into extreme weather off the US East Coast. There are just to many ways of getting forecast & real time weather (with even an iphone).

 

CaptDave

[BND]

On the Concordia, at least one man, who was a violin player onboard went back to his cabin to retrieve his expensive violin and it cost him his life. Those who got trapped for the most part tried to go lower into the ship to a muster station (from what I remember hearing at the time), rather than to a higher point. If everyone had gone to higher decks, they probably would have all survived.

Edited February 12, 2016 by BND

[LMaxwell]

Launching lifeboats in the weather Anthem encountered would have been virtually impossible. Testing at a dock in flat sea state is one thing, launching from a listing, pitching, rolling ship in heavy seas and winds, no way, not happening.

[karen&roy]

I do not get why some people are so obsessed with the lifeboats? In the height of a storm like this, they will never be a an option. Any attempt to get into the water would end ones life. In a lifeboat you would be like an ice cube in a drink shaker, in a life vest you would quickly drown and even if you are a world class swimmer, you would succumb to hypothermia. As for the coast guard or Navy...they are not sending a ship or a helicopter into this storm. I will go further to say if a coast guard cutter happened to be nearby....again there is absolutely nothing they could do until the storm is over. I am an optimistic person but it is illogical to think anything outside of the fact the Anthem and its passengers were on their own.

 

I AGREE completely and by your sig I see you know what you are talking about:D

[retired widow]

Per NBC News as of 2/12/16: The cruise ship that cut its voyage short after getting battered by rough seas and powerful winds during a storm in the Atlantic Ocean sustained damage to a key part of its propulsion system and officials are ordering it be fixed before the ship returns to sea for its next cruise this weekend, authorities said.

 

Royal Caribbean insisted for days that the damage to the Bahamas-bound Anthem of the Seas was "cosmetic" and "superficial" after it got caught in a storm off the Carolinas Sunday.

Royal Caribbean has FAILED to give passengers scheduled for the 2/13/16 in writing or verbally a statement confirming if the cruise will sail. Some passengers must make travel service to pier changes. Royal Caribbean silence suggest that they are Not being honest with their passengers. I would respect them more if they offer passengers scheduled for Saturday a full refund if they were not comfortable sailing. I want an answer by noon time today. What information is Royal Caribbean hiding from their passengers?

[Trainman52]

NEVER GO BACK for ANYTHING. That is equally applicable to a house fire where people feel the need to "rescue" some family item.

 

120mph winds and 30 foot seas would not be kind to a lifeboat. Launching, as previously mentioned, would be virtually impossible. Kind of going out of the frying pan and into the fire.

 

I had sent an email to the USCG regarding the lack of life jackets in cruise ship cabins. Their reply was that it was another lesson learned from the Concordia. That being said, hopefully everyone can get one at their muster station.

[Jccruiser28]

Per NBC News as of 2/12/16: The cruise ship that cut its voyage short after getting battered by rough seas and powerful winds during a storm in the Atlantic Ocean sustained damage to a key part of its propulsion system and officials are ordering it be fixed before the ship returns to sea for its next cruise this weekend, authorities said.

 

 

 

Royal Caribbean insisted for days that the damage to the Bahamas-bound Anthem of the Seas was "cosmetic" and "superficial" after it got caught in a storm off the Carolinas Sunday.

 

Royal Caribbean has FAILED to give passengers scheduled for the 2/13/16 in writing or verbally a statement confirming if the cruise will sail. Some passengers must make travel service to pier changes. Royal Caribbean silence suggest that they are Not being honest with their passengers. I would respect them more if they offer passengers scheduled for Saturday a full refund if they were not comfortable sailing. I want an answer by noon time today. What information is Royal Caribbean hiding from their passengers?

 

 

I couldn't agree more!

[Lawdog1674]

Wow. Good thread. Makes me nervous though, as someone just off the anthem. We were on the high side of the tipping on the anthem. I told my family we were not going to the muster station if it was tipping as that would of put us on the low side, which was already getting water damage. We would of just stayed in our room and climbed out the balcony.

[FSUNole]

Also , I believe, all cruise ships have to have enough lifeboats/liferafts to accommodate all passengers and crew on each side of the ship

 

Where did you see this?

[FSUNole]

...a catastrophe is rarely caused by one failure, but a combination of failures.

 

Scott

 

Good first post... really. Your statement that I quoted is 100% spot on. Just because a ship/plane/whatever can withstand 'x' or do 'y', it doesn't mean it can do them when various parts of the system fails. I don't see how everyone would have made it into lifeboats. As many people that fall off of cruise ships as it is, I could see many folks going overboard under the circumstances Anthem was under.

[FSUNole]

Per NBC News as of 2/12/16: ...sustained damage to a key part of its propulsion system ...

 

 

This is why it took longer than initially projected to get back to port. The RCI apologizers raked folks over the coals who even insinuated this because it wasn't part of the official RCI party line.

[Sitzmark]

Where did you see this?

 

This is as of 2012.

 

Regulations require each side of cruise ships have enough lifeboats to accommodate 37.5% of the total number of persons on board (passengers and crew), 75% in total. Inflatable or rigid liferafts must accommodate the remaining 25% of passengers and crew. (SOLAS, Section II, Regulation 21, 1.1)

[jd10367]

Once that storm got severe, from around 3:30pm until 1:30am I can tell you with absolute certainty that there was no way lifeboats were an option. This is why I found the discussion about lifejackets in the room to be hilarious. Trying to launch the lifeboats would've been fatal. Trying to get into the water with a lifejacket would've been fatal. Going down with the ship would've been fatal but the ship going down was the option with the best odds of not happening. Sitting in our room, I knew the only way that ship would go down is if the engines totally failed and the ship got sideways into the wind and got swamped with water, so as long as the ship had power and maintained its position into the wind I was fine. Trust me, I spent all night checking the TV's map to make sure we were still into the wind and had slight thrust (most of the night it was between 1 and 4 knots).

[CrusieToy]

Never though about it [emoji52]. It was a mistake to take that ship toward the storm [emoji20]

 

that was my first reaction.

 

Even if they got the life boats in the water I can't imagine being in one of

those during that storm