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Hurricane Irma Watch

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spleenstomper

spleenstomper

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1800Z GFS model is yet again further east. Looks like it might predict no FL landfall for the eye at all.

 

No guarantee that holds, but it would be a very good outcome if other models and forecasts started to converge. We could see a lot of one-day delays as the thing runs by and then business-as-usual.

 

Usual caveats: too early to be sure, NHC forecast is the best gauge, etc.

 

GFS and Euro have had their disagreements today

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cruisinfanatic

cruisinfanatic

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Latest Royal Caribbean Update

 

September 5, 2017 - 6:00 PM EDT (next update at 12 noon tomorrow)

 

We are closely monitoring Hurricane Irma’s path and its potential impact to our current and upcoming sailings. Royal Caribbean’s Chief Meteorologist, James Van Fleet, is closely tracking the storm’s progress, and the current forecast is as follows:

 

Hurricane Irma is a category 5 hurricane with sustained winds around the center at 185 mph and is currently located about 210 miles east of Antigua. The storm continues its westerly track at 15 mph. While it is difficult to predict the path of the storm at this time, it is likely that Irma will impact Florida at some point this weekend.

 

In an effort to give you advance notice of any changes while also taking into account the most accurate forecast information, we will be providing updates on any impacted sailings no later than 2 days in advance of departure.

 

The following sailings are canceled:

 

Enchantment of the Seas: September 8 - Bahamas cruise

Majesty of the Seas: September 8 - Bahamas cruise

 

We are very sorry for the impact this storm has had on your vacation and please know that we made the decision with the safety and comfort of our guests and crew in mind. The cruise fare and fees will be 100% refunded to the original form of payment, and we are also offering a 25% future cruise credit, based on the cruise fare, if a new cruise is booked in the next 30 days. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to call 1-800-256-6649.

 

The following sailings are departing as scheduled:

 

Adventure of the Seas: September 9 Southern Caribbean cruise

Grandeur of the Seas: September 7 New England/Canada cruise

Liberty of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise

Serenade of the Seas: September 10 New England/Canada cruise

Vision of the Seas: September 7 New England/Canada cruise

 

The following sailings are currently being evaluated and we will provide our next update at 6 PM EDT:

 

Allure of the Seas: September 10 Western Caribbean cruise

Anthem of the Seas: September 9 Bermuda cruise

Empress of the Seas: September 9 Cuba cruise

Harmony of the Seas: September 9 Eastern Caribbean cruise

Oasis of the Seas: September 10 Eastern Caribbean cruise

For all guests currently sailing with us, the Captain and team onboard will be providing you specific updates at noon and 6 pm daily, and of course will update you immediately if anything changes.

 

Should we need to make an itinerary change or cancel a sailing to avoid the storm, we will reach out to guests directly, as well as update our website and social media feeds immediately. Please know that the safety and comfort of our guests are our top priority and we will continue to provide regular updates throughout the week.

 

For more frequent updates, please follow our meteorologist on Twitter @JamesVanFleet or visit the Royal Caribbean Facebook page.

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Misplaced Texan

Misplaced Texan

Posted
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6pm GFS is crazy different from Euro. GFS shows no eye hitting Florida but NC in the path. Euro still showing clobbering of Florida.

 

Weather is perfect here in Cozumel as the Allure preps to make way for who knows where.

 

Two global dynamical models with very different expectations for the strength of the ridge that will determine where it makes its turn. Hopefully over the next 24-48 hours we'll see some convergence as the real steering conditions emerge (and selfishly, hopefully it looks more like the current GFS run than the Euro run).

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bc cruiser

bc cruiser

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We were informed on RCCL web site that we would know at 6pm if our Harmony cruise leaving on Sept. 9th would be cancelled and guess what was posted, another wait until tomorrow at noon. People, like us, that live in Florida(northwest), can't drive down because there is already a gas shortage in south florida and by Sat., there probably won't be any gas to get, also by Sat. they probably will turn the interstate into going north only. :mad: We live on the gulf coast, so praying it does a sharp right at least and not get in the gulf. Stay safe everyone.

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Misplaced Texan

Misplaced Texan

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We were informed on RCCL web site that we would know at 6pm if our Harmony cruise leaving on Sept. 9th would be cancelled and guess what was posted, another wait until tomorrow at noon. People, like us, that live in Florida(northwest), can't drive down because there is already a gas shortage in south florida and by Sat., there probably won't be any gas to get, also by Sat. they probably will turn the interstate into going north only. :mad: We live on the gulf coast, so praying it does a sharp right at least and not get in the gulf. Stay safe everyone.

 

The models are getting more uncertain rather than less. GFS now has no FL landfall for the eye (heading out east). Some have it going into the Gulf and hitting the panhandle. The Euro model still has a hit near Naples and the storm crossing the state.

 

It's hard for RCI to make a call when the experts don't have any firm idea of where the thing will go.

 

We're all going to have to just wait for more info about the track of the storm.

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Tony20

Tony20

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We were informed on RCCL web site that we would know at 6pm if our Harmony cruise leaving on Sept. 9th would be cancelled and guess what was posted, another wait until tomorrow at noon. People, like us, that live in Florida(northwest), can't drive down because there is already a gas shortage in south florida and by Sat., there probably won't be any gas to get, also by Sat. they probably will turn the interstate into going north only. :mad: We live on the gulf coast, so praying it does a sharp right at least and not get in the gulf. Stay safe everyone.

 

 

We're on Harmony too. The statement said no later than two days before departure. That's Thursday.

 

An update is not the same as a final decision. Living in Florida you know how rapidly hurricane tracks can change. I don't blame them.

 

We're in Orlando and have one car with a full tank set aside to drive down if we get a "go". But frankly, it looks doubtful.

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Tony20

Tony20

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Again no answer on Sat sailing of Harmony so I guess there gonna wait until Thurs before they say Cancel so we have no idea when/if we need to cancel our flights SMH!

 

I want them to wait. I want to go on this cruise if it all possible.

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Jzx1103

Jzx1103

Posted
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The models are getting more uncertain rather than less. GFS now has no FL landfall for the eye (heading out east). Some have it going into the Gulf and hitting the panhandle. The Euro model still has a hit near Naples and the storm crossing the state.

 

It's hard for RCI to make a call when the experts don't have any firm idea of where the thing will go.

 

We're all going to have to just wait for more info about the track of the storm.

 

Even if the eye misses, Hurricane and Tropical Storm force winds extend well outside of the eye by hundred of miles. Remember Hurricane Harvey actually hit Rockport TX 200 miles away from Houston. Just because the eye doesn't hit Ft. Lauderdale, doesn't mean it's a safe area to travel.

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cruisinfanatic

cruisinfanatic

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Again no answer on Sat sailing of Harmony so I guess there gonna wait until Thurs before they say Cancel so we have no idea when/if we need to cancel our flights SMH!

Probably BECAUSE NO ONE KNOWS WHERE IT WILL LAND!

Friday's cruises cancelled today. Probably tomorrow you will know for Sat because forecasts should be a little more accurate

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Luv2Cruiise

Luv2Cruiise

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I want them to wait. I want to go on this cruise if it all possible.

 

We want to go too but won't be able to if they wait until Fri to say Yay or Nay, Our flight leaves Thurs afternoon and My hubby can't miss extra days from work then there's the flight issue if it can't be changed to make it should they still go etc. :( :mad:

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Misplaced Texan

Misplaced Texan

Posted
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Even if the eye misses, Hurricane and Tropical Storm force winds extend well outside of the eye by hundred of miles. Remember Hurricane Harvey actually hit Rockport TX 200 miles away from Houston. Just because the eye doesn't hit Ft. Lauderdale, doesn't mean it's a safe area to travel.

 

Absolutely. There's still no reason to believe that cruises will be operating from Miami, FLL, or Port Canaveral this weekend.

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Misplaced Texan

Misplaced Texan

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Captain is making an announcement on Harmony of the Seas. We are going to Cozumel. We are delaying our arrival into Fort Lauderdale. They will let us know the date of our arrival ASAP. They will update tomorrow at noon.

 

Enjoy your extra sea day or two. Getting a couple of free days on the end of a cruise isn't the worst thing that could happen to someone :D

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Milwaukee Eight

Milwaukee Eight

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We were informed on RCCL web site that we would know at 6pm if our Harmony cruise leaving on Sept. 9th would be cancelled and guess what was posted, another wait until tomorrow at noon. People, like us, that live in Florida(northwest), can't drive down because there is already a gas shortage in south florida and by Sat., there probably won't be any gas to get, also by Sat. they probably will turn the interstate into going north only. :mad: We live on the gulf coast, so praying it does a sharp right at least and not get in the gulf. Stay safe everyone.

 

 

 

There was plenty of gas here in Ormond Beach. There was lines for the cheaper priced gas like SAMS but the 7/11 on the corner had gas with no lines.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

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ptf2009

ptf2009

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Enjoy your extra days at sea! I do feel so badly for those who are supposed to cruise this weekend...just waiting for a decision from RCCL. We know how exciting it is to count the days down until you get to go on a cruise. Hopefully, 11 more for us!!!...unless storm JOSE acts up!!

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Misplaced Texan

Misplaced Texan

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Enjoy your extra days at sea! I do feel so badly for those who are supposed to cruise this weekend...just waiting for a decision from RCCL. We know how exciting it is to count the days down until you get to go on a cruise. Hopefully, 11 more for us!!!...unless storm JOSE acts up!!

 

It would take a really strange set of circumstances for both Irma and Jose to threaten the SE U.S.

 

The same conditions that will steer Irma North are predicted to kick Jose up too.

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