Riddle Me this Batman! Small Ship/New Ship, Large Ship Trends!!

[soapbxking]

OK, so I got to thinking after seeing the thread on Carnival ships being sold. Obviously the ships for sale(Fantasy/Elation) are the older smaller ships. Couple that with the trend in all the newer ships(all lines) getting bigger and bigger and ALSO the fact that some people say they prefer the smaller ships, it got me to thinking.... As Carnival begins to sell their older smaller(Fantasy Class) ships will they all be replaced with bigger behemoths OR could/should Carnival build some new smaller ships close the size of the Fantasy Class?? WHew..Ok I think I got that right, and go!!!! :-)

[ultrafighter]

Bigger is not always better. I know that a ship is kind of like a small city on water, but I don't have much desire to be in a giant metropolis on the water. Unfortunately, I think the "bigger/glitzier" trend is only going continue both on land and at sea.

[CruiseAdict218]

Bigger is not always better. I know that a ship is kind of like a small city on water, but I don't have much desire to be in a giant metropolis on the water. Unfortunately, I think the "bigger/glitzier" trend is only going continue both on land and at sea.

 

Don't expect them to pass them off so quickly, not only do they make Carnival some serious money but they are still pouring money into them as well. But I agree with the above I don't see Carnival building anything smaller anytime soon.

[soapbxking]

Don't expect them to pass them off so quickly, not only do they make Carnival some serious money but they are still pouring money into them as well. But I agree with the above I don't see Carnival building anything smaller anytime soon.

Unfortunately I agree with you :-( BUT what a niche Carnival could exploit if they built something amazing in the same size if not a tad bigger than the Fantasy class as a new vessel. I think it could explode if placed somewhere like Charleston or Canaveral etc.

[CruiseAdict218]

Unfortunately I agree with you :-( BUT what a niche Carnival could exploit if they built something amazing in the same size if not a tad bigger than the Fantasy class as a new vessel. I think it could explode if placed somewhere like Charleston or Canaveral etc.

 

I wonder what Carnival will do once they do start pushing off some of the sisters consider they only have 4 other smaller vessels (Spirit Class), 1 of which is no longer based in the US; but as of now Fantasy/Imagination/Inspiration are the three with the fewest upgrades? Also the 3 that don't have balconies (Paradise is getting them between Jan - Feb 2018). Probably after the launch of Vista 3 & XL #1 in 2020 will probably see the first one depart the fleet. That is if they can find a home for one.

[jeff92k7]

As I was the one that made those comments in the other thread, I'll comment here too since this post is on the exact topic.

 

I really hope they don't replace the smaller ships with the giant crowded ships for a couple of reasons. 1. the bigger ships are just too crowded. Yeah it makes them money to sell more cabins, but the smaller, less crowded ships have obviously made them plenty of money too since there are more Fantasy class ships in service than any other design (they wouldn't have built so many if they didn't make money, or kept them in service if they didn't make money). 2. The bigger ships won't be able to fit into as many ports. If they retire all the small ones, then some ports will close making it harder for some people to get on a cruise. Right now, Carnival is the biggest cruise line partly because of the number of ships and ports. Those ports are well within driving distance of the vast majority in the USA. Close those closer ports and the incentive to cruise with Carnival will go away for hundreds of thousands of cruisers.

 

I realize that ships age and maintenance costs increase with age which is exactly why I brought up the idea of them building more ships of that same size/capacity in that other thread. I think more, efficient, smaller ships would not only make them money for many years to come, the ships would help keep Carnival at the top of the cruise industry. Unfortunately, the big ships get all the press and are what cruise newbies think they want. Once you've cruised a few times, you realize that bigger does not mean better. Bigger ships mean longer lines for nearly everything and lots more walking just to get to those lines.

 

Edit to add: If they aren't going to build more in the Fantasy size/capacity range, then I wish they would refurbish the existing ships similar to what they just did with the Elation. Yes, i realize they added a few more cabins, which means more people, but overall, the ship won't really be any more crowded. They also remodeled most of the ship (all the cabins and many common areas) so it looks like a new ship. These upgrades are specifically why my family has booked two future cruises on her. If they replace her with a new, giant ship that likely won't fit under the bridge in Jacksonville, then that port will close and we will lose a reasonably convenient cruise port.

 

Though, I'll also note for sake of the OP, that the Elation is likely not the one for sale that was referenced in that other post. More than likely it is the Paradise which was launched the same year as the Elation. I doubt Carnival would have just paid to refurb the Elation so extensively if they were going to try to sell her off so soon. While the photos appear to be of the Elation, the specs on the for sale site also fit the paradise and Carnival is not great at accurrate photos of their ships. (For example, the beauty shot on the Elation page that they just added after the dry dock isn't even the elation. It looks like a poor photoshop version of the Ecstasy). I would guess that the changes to the Elation were done for one of two reasons: either they want to keep her in service for a while (at some of those smaller ports that won't fit the ginormous ships), or they have long term plans to switch her over to one of the secondary lines within the company where the added suites would fit that secondary line's clientele better.

Edited October 28, 2017 by jeff92k7

[BlerkOne]

Carnival couldn't replace a small ship for anything near the price they would sell one for. If they built a new small ship, cruise prices would skyrocket.

[SadieN]

Unfortunately I agree with you :-( BUT what a niche Carnival could exploit if they built something amazing in the same size if not a tad bigger than the Fantasy class as a new vessel. I think it could explode if placed somewhere like Charleston or Canaveral etc.

 

 

 

I’d be happy with another Spirit class sized ship.

[tidecat]

Carnival Corporation actually is building new smaller ships, just for the upmarket lines. Jacksonville could lose Carnival, but what's not to say they could gain Seabourn or Holland America?

 

On the flip side, Carnival could move a ship like Costa Atlantica (sister to the Carnival Spirit) or HAL's Noordam to the Carnival line if they feel they can capture the cost of the refurbishment and still sail it out of a place like Baltimore or Tampa.

[SkyMaster]

I too, greatly prefer Spirit, or even Conquest class ships. I'm not, however, holding my breath, waiting for Carnival to build any new ships that size, even though I know many, many people who would celebrate it if they did. The problem is, that almost all of those people, including me, will still sail Carnival ships, even though they are BIG, and filled with people.

 

"SKY"

[jeff92k7]

Carnival couldn't replace a small ship for anything near the price they would sell one for. If they built a new small ship, cruise prices would skyrocket.

 

Not necessarily. We need to think of the finances over a long term period. They could easily build a new, smaller ship, and keep prices the same.

 

Let's use the Fantasy for example. It's been in service for 26 years. It cost ~250 million to build (if internet searches are accurate). It carries 2052 passengers (double occ).

 

So let's do some VERY rough math. Over 26 years, it could have done 1898 5-day sailings, let's round down to 1800. On those 1800 sailings, it could have sailed with 2052 paying passengers, but lets round way down to 1600 to account for no shows and free/reward cruises. That is 2,880,000 passengers over it's life. let's further assume each paying passenger paid an average $400 fare. That means the ship has brought in 1.152 Billion dollars over it's life. Now we have to subtract for crew salaries, food/supply costs, maintenance, etc. Let's kill 60% of that for overhead. That is still 460,800,000 that the ship has made over it's 26 year life (with my wildly inaccurate math). Subtract the 250 mil ship cost (plus interest on bank notes of, oh 100 million) and that leaves a profit of almost 111 million dollars.

 

We know the math would be very different (longer sailings cost more, shorter sailings cost less, most passengers will pay far more than $400 - especially for suites; and so on). Point being, the ships have paid for themselves. They are asking 100 million to sell the Fantasy right now, so that would add back to the profit that she has made.

 

All that to say that they could do it all over again. Finance a new ship build, sell cabins, in 20 years she's paid off. They don't need to pay off a new ship with the sale of an old ship. Each ship pays for itself. They could do this if they wanted to.

 

Unfortunately, if you can take a 400 million dollar new ship, and then have twice the number of cabins on it as a 250 million dollar ship, then you make more money at a faster rate, even though your ship cost more to begin with. This is what Carnival (and all the other companies) are doing. Carnival makes more money, but the customers pay for it by standing in longer lines.

[jimbo5544]

OK, so I got to thinking after seeing the thread on Carnival ships being sold. Obviously the ships for sale(Fantasy/Elation) are the older smaller ships. Couple that with the trend in all the newer ships(all lines) getting bigger and bigger and ALSO the fact that some people say they prefer the smaller ships, it got me to thinking.... As Carnival begins to sell their older smaller(Fantasy Class) ships will they all be replaced with bigger behemoths OR could/should Carnival build some new smaller ships close the size of the Fantasy Class?? WHew..Ok I think I got that right, and go!!!! :-)

 

 

 

Carnival will not go smaller, the economics wont work for them

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Forums

[Micahs Grandad]

Not necessarily. We need to think of the finances over a long term period. They could easily build a new, smaller ship, and keep prices the same.

 

Let's use the Fantasy for example. It's been in service for 26 years. It cost ~250 million to build (if internet searches are accurate). It carries 2052 passengers (double occ).

 

So let's do some VERY rough math. Over 26 years, it could have done 1898 5-day sailings, let's round down to 1800. On those 1800 sailings, it could have sailed with 2052 paying passengers, but lets round way down to 1600 to account for no shows and free/reward cruises. That is 2,880,000 passengers over it's life. let's further assume each paying passenger paid an average $400 fare. That means the ship has brought in 1.152 Billion dollars over it's life. Now we have to subtract for crew salaries, food/supply costs, maintenance, etc. Let's kill 60% of that for overhead. That is still 460,800,000 that the ship has made over it's 26 year life (with my wildly inaccurate math). Subtract the 250 mil ship cost (plus interest on bank notes of, oh 100 million) and that leaves a profit of almost 111 million dollars.

 

We know the math would be very different (longer sailings cost more, shorter sailings cost less, most passengers will pay far more than $400 - especially for suites; and so on). Point being, the ships have paid for themselves. They are asking 100 million to sell the Fantasy right now, so that would add back to the profit that she has made.

 

All that to say that they could do it all over again. Finance a new ship build, sell cabins, in 20 years she's paid off. They don't need to pay off a new ship with the sale of an old ship. Each ship pays for itself. They could do this if they wanted to.

 

Unfortunately, if you can take a 400 million dollar new ship, and then have twice the number of cabins on it as a 250 million dollar ship, then you make more money at a faster rate, even though your ship cost more to begin with. This is what Carnival (and all the other companies) are doing. Carnival makes more money, but the customers pay for it by standing in longer lines.

 

Not going to debate your math but the market is going bigger and bigger and even though for years Carnival said it would not follow RCCL they now have.

 

BTW Princess has one small size ship the Pacific Princess which holds just under 700 people and costs are about double their other much larger ships.

[BoDidly]

The bigger the pot the more fish stew can be served. Can't say I dislike the Fantasy class ,more or less bored of them at the present time. I do see the Fantasy class being sold in the not to near future . I will say Carnival will take the lead of the Mega ship and that will put a frown on their Grand Ambassador .

[CruiseAdict218]

Not going to debate your math but the market is going bigger and bigger and even though for years Carnival said it would not follow RCCL they now have.

 

BTW Princess has one small size ship the Pacific Princess which holds just under 700 people and costs are about double their other much larger ships.

 

Agreed, I've heard that too. Royal would over take Carnival in the near future.

 

 

Smaller ships of that size are trending better with the upscale/luxury/expedition market, not so much with mass market lines. Both Princess & Holland America are examples of moving away from smaller ships.

[jeff92k7]

BTW Princess has one small size ship the Pacific Princess (snip)

 

Ha ha... I thought the Pacific Princess got scrapped in 2013. I didn't realize they had launched a new ship and named her after that original TV set. (Shows how much I pay attention to their secondary brands).

[tidecat]

If there is some glimmer of hope for smaller ships, Norwegian has contracts to build 140,000 gross ton ships in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 with options for 2026 and 2027 as part of "Project Leonardo". While that is larger than the Carnival Vista, it is smaller than some of Norwegian's existing ships including Epic, Breakaway, Getaway, Joy, and Escape. The ships in "Project Leonardo" actually are planned to have 3,300 lower berths, which is about 630 fewer than the Carnival Vista.

[jayscore]

I started my cruise addiction just as the ambiance of this experience was waning.

I guess "bigger is better" doesn't interest me.

I do understand why the cruise lines are being forced into catering to spoiled, easily bored persons and families who require as many distractions as possible.

Good for them, if that's what they require.

Back to the subject; A Spirit class ship is just fine with me! ;)

[SMSACE6]

these days on cruise ships/lines, it is all about packing them in, and charging extra for this and that. Carnival is not the only one line doing this, but for me, the time has come to chose a different vacation venue, be it a cruise, or a land vacation destination, (that fits my limited budget) lol.

 

Still like lots of things on Carnival, but am also "VERY" invested in checking out other cruise lines, and other types of vacations for "whenever" I can cruise or even travel again.

 

another thing....for me, who cruises and travels solo these days....cruises are not solo friendly, so I am going back to looking at vacations where I can book a room at a hotel , same price if one or two people, and just have a different travel experience.

 

 

going back to the orig post , bigger is not always better, my opinion also.

Edited October 28, 2017 by SMSACE6

[Micahs Grandad]

these days on cruise ships/lines, it is all about packing them in, and charging extra for this and that. Carnival is not the only one line doing this, but for me, the time has come to chose a different vacation venue, be it a cruise, or a land vacation destination, (that fits my limited budget) lol.

 

Still like lots of things on Carnival, but am also "VERY" invested in checking out other cruise lines, and other types of vacations for "whenever" I can cruise or even travel again.

 

another thing....for me, who cruises and travels solo these days....cruises are not solo friendly, so I am going back to looking at vacations where I can book a room at a hotel , same price if one or two people, and just have a different travel experience.

 

 

going back to the orig post , bigger is not always better, my opinion also.

 

Understand what you are saying. These days are cruises are mostly to see the world but we do enjoy evening entertainment options on the larger ships.

[Micahs Grandad]

If there is some glimmer of hope for smaller ships, Norwegian has contracts to build 140,000 gross ton ships in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 with options for 2026 and 2027 as part of "Project Leonardo". While that is larger than the Carnival Vista, it is smaller than some of Norwegian's existing ships including Epic, Breakaway, Getaway, Joy, and Escape. The ships in "Project Leonardo" actually are planned to have 3,300 lower berths, which is about 630 fewer than the Carnival Vista.

 

Funny how we are calling 140,000 gross ton ships smaller ones:)

 

What I object to in the growing size of Carnival ships is they squeeze more passengers in and make the public areas smaller.

 

One reason we will probably never sail on Vista class.

[soapbxking]

As I was the one that made those comments in the other thread, I'll comment here too since this post is on the exact topic.

 

I really hope they don't replace the smaller ships with the giant crowded ships for a couple of reasons. 1. the bigger ships are just too crowded. Yeah it makes them money to sell more cabins, but the smaller, less crowded ships have obviously made them plenty of money too since there are more Fantasy class ships in service than any other design (they wouldn't have built so many if they didn't make money, or kept them in service if they didn't make money). 2. The bigger ships won't be able to fit into as many ports. If they retire all the small ones, then some ports will close making it harder for some people to get on a cruise. Right now, Carnival is the biggest cruise line partly because of the number of ships and ports. Those ports are well within driving distance of the vast majority in the USA. Close those closer ports and the incentive to cruise with Carnival will go away for hundreds of thousands of cruisers.

 

I realize that ships age and maintenance costs increase with age which is exactly why I brought up the idea of them building more ships of that same size/capacity in that other thread. I think more, efficient, smaller ships would not only make them money for many years to come, the ships would help keep Carnival at the top of the cruise industry. Unfortunately, the big ships get all the press and are what cruise newbies think they want. Once you've cruised a few times, you realize that bigger does not mean better. Bigger ships mean longer lines for nearly everything and lots more walking just to get to those lines.

 

Edit to add: If they aren't going to build more in the Fantasy size/capacity range, then I wish they would refurbish the existing ships similar to what they just did with the Elation. Yes, i realize they added a few more cabins, which means more people, but overall, the ship won't really be any more crowded. They also remodeled most of the ship (all the cabins and many common areas) so it looks like a new ship. These upgrades are specifically why my family has booked two future cruises on her. If they replace her with a new, giant ship that likely won't fit under the bridge in Jacksonville, then that port will close and we will lose a reasonably convenient cruise port.

 

Though, I'll also note for sake of the OP, that the Elation is likely not the one for sale that was referenced in that other post. More than likely it is the Paradise which was launched the same year as the Elation. I doubt Carnival would have just paid to refurb the Elation so extensively if they were going to try to sell her off so soon. While the photos appear to be of the Elation, the specs on the for sale site also fit the paradise and Carnival is not great at accurrate photos of their ships. (For example, the beauty shot on the Elation page that they just added after the dry dock isn't even the elation. It looks like a poor photoshop version of the Ecstasy). I would guess that the changes to the Elation were done for one of two reasons: either they want to keep her in service for a while (at some of those smaller ports that won't fit the ginormous ships), or they have long term plans to switch her over to one of the secondary lines within the company where the added suites would fit that secondary line's clientele better.

 

Whew.. what a great post and read, but I am tired :-)

I agree with everything you said. I would be sad to see Paradise go, I have sailed her twice, once as a Smoke Free ship(awesome).

[soapbxking]

Carnival couldn't replace a small ship for anything near the price they would sell one for. If they built a new small ship, cruise prices would skyrocket.

They are building newer bigger ships that costs more now and prices are not skyrocketing!!!

[tidecat]

Just as an example of both cases:

 

Nieuw Statendam costs $520 Million and has 2,660 lower berths. Carnival Horizon has 4,000 lower berths and costs $780 Million. Both ships come in between $195,000 and $196,000 per lower berth, even though Holland America is an upmarket line.

 

Assuming the Carnival Fantasy's cost of $250 Million in 1990 dollars is now $468 Million after inflation, it would come in around $225,000 per lower berth, which makes it comparable to an Oasis-class ship.

 

On the flip side, Viking Ocean is building ships that cost slightly more than half of the Carnival Vista ($400 Million) but have only 930 lower berths, putting the per berth cost at over $430,000.

 

Information taken from https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/cruise-ship-orderbook.html

[BoDidly]

Bull Mahogany, they should have taken Stu's offer :D:cool:

But that's another thread .

Edited October 29, 2017 by BoDidly