NCLH Stock

[mrlevin]

As NCLH stock is down 20% from its recent highs, I thought now might be the time to finally buy 100 shares in order to get shipboard credit for my upcoming cruises.  However, when I research the stock, NCLH seems to be much more highly leveraged than either RCL or CCL.  Anyone hold NCLH stock and have an opinion on the viability of the company?

 

thanks,

 

Marc

[Ladys Mom]

I have owned NCLH stock for quite a few years now.  My broker says that the concensus is that it is a stock to hold over the long term, stronger than RCl or CLL.  We bought it for the onboard credit and over the years have made back more than our investment.  We also own RCL for the same reason, but additionally have made a lot on its appreciation and its dividend.

[mrlevin]

Thanks for the input; however, total debt over total equity is over 100%.  Total debt over assets is over 40%.  I can't imagine Renaissance was much more heavily indebted in 2001.  Still, mostly hold or buy ratings so maybe I will give it a shot.

 

Again, thanks for the input.

 

Marc

[WesW]

Marc, have owned NCLH for about five years and received multiple SBC on Regent cruises (easy peasey with our TA and Regent).  NCLH $$ financials today may not be optimal, but (Arlene and you as avid Regent cruisers) will surely benefit yearly with a SBC (post ownership) on each subsequent Regent cruise.  Hope to again get a NCLH stockholder cruise  SBC on a Splendor voyage sometime in 2022/23.  

 

So,  now we r doing at least one Silversea Expedition cruise annually, would be nice to get SBC if we owned RCL stock.  However, SS & RCL are not yet offering cruise bennies with NCLH stock ownership. 

 

Hope this helps.

[cuddles115]

There are many stocks that are considered long term holds.  The question is how long is "long term." Because of the coronavirus problem all cruise lines( NCLH, RCL and CCL) are at their lows. In comparison, both Royal Caribbean and Norweigian have similar onboard credits for stockholders.  $100 for cruises up to 14 days and $250 for longer cruises. The big difference is that NCLH doe not pay a dividend whereas RCL pays 2.84%/year or 0.78 per share per quarter.  BTW, RCL is exdividend on 3/5 with payment on 4/4/2020. In summary, investing is an art-form decent on your comfort level and your opinion of the risk-reward ratio.  

 

Good luck and smooth sailing

[jeb_bud]

I also have been thinking about buying the dip so I can claim the stock holder credit.  I went to rssc.com and read the FAQ.  I found the following sentence "Benefit is not combinable with any other offer."  I wonder if any shareholders who have claimed the credit have also had to choose between the stock holder credit and some other offer?  I have read about the credit but I do not remember any discussion of trade-offs.

[cuddles115]

9 minutes ago, jeb_bud said:

I also have been thinking about buying the dip so I can claim the stock holder credit.  I went to rssc.com and read the FAQ.  I found the following sentence "Benefit is not combinable with any other offer."  I wonder if any shareholders who have claimed the credit have also had to choose between the stock holder credit and some other offer?  I have read about the credit but I do not remember any discussion of trade-offs.

For anyone thinking about buying the dip, this is a ripe time.  NCLH( the parent of Regent) is $43/share down 3.965.   The other "biggies" are also down. I've tried to get the stockholder credit as well as other onboard credits....NO GO!!

Edited February 24, 2020 by cuddles115
Correction of biggies

[flossie009]

We hold both NCLH stock and CCL stock.

 

NCLH stock pays no dividends so its worth is only about capital growth and the shareholder credit

CCL stock has historically paid excellent dividends; plus it is a convenient holding for us as it is quoted on the London Stock Exchange as well as in New York.

 

All cruise-line stocks, and travel related stocks in general, fell sharply again over the weekend.

However since the stock markets generally are now getting the jitters they may still have further drops to come before they bottom out.

[Ladys Mom]

1 hour ago, jeb_bud said:

I also have been thinking about buying the dip so I can claim the stock holder credit.  I went to rssc.com and read the FAQ.  I found the following sentence "Benefit is not combinable with any other offer."  I wonder if any shareholders who have claimed the credit have also had to choose between the stock holder credit and some other offer?  I have read about the credit but I do not remember any discussion of trade-offs.

I know that is what it says, but it depends on where you get the OBC.  We get it from our TA so it doesn’t impact Regents contribution at all.

[rcandkc]

I’m confused.  I’m thinking of buying some NCL stock at this time.  What are the benefits and how much do you need to own?  

[Ladys Mom]

20 minutes ago, rcandkc said:

I’m confused.  I’m thinking of buying some NCL stock at this time.  What are the benefits and how much do you need to own?  

You need to own 100 shares of stock.  Each cruise you take gets you OBC of $50, $100, or $250 depending on the length of your cruise.  There is no limit on how many times you use the benefit.

[flossie009]

[rcandkc]

Thank you. 

[jeb_bud]

3 hours ago, Ladys Mom said:

I know that is what it says, but it depends on where you get the OBC.  We get it from our TA so it doesn’t impact Regents contribution at all.

It was that phrase "any other offer" that had me concerned.  Looking at my invoice, there are many discounts; Early Booking, Bonus Discount, SSS Savings, On-board Savings, Air and/or Hotel Credit.  Then there is an OBC from our TA consortium.  I called Regent and none of those items trigger the exclusion.

 

I'm thinking the any other offer they are referring to is an OBC that Regent includes to sweeten the pot.  Regent has begun offering an OBC for our cruise in October but it wasn't offered when I booked so it doesn't affect us.

[Travelcat2]

47 minutes ago, jeb_bud said:

It was that phrase "any other offer" that had me concerned.  Looking at my invoice, there are many discounts; Early Booking, Bonus Discount, SSS Savings, On-board Savings, Air and/or Hotel Credit.  Then there is an OBC from our TA consortium.  I called Regent and none of those items trigger the exclusion.

 

I'm thinking the any other offer they are referring to is an OBC that Regent includes to sweeten the pot.  Regent has begun offering an OBC for our cruise in October but it wasn't offered when I booked so it doesn't affect us.

 

You have a good eye!  The meager OBC's you get from owning stock is not worth the trouble.  We gave up our $300 OBC by having a Amex platinum card because most of our cruises had other OBC's available and therefore the Amex OBC's were not available.  We are happy with our Chase Sapphire card that does not give us OBC's but has made getting First Class flights within the U.S. much easier than Amex.  

 

It may take quite a while for cruise lines to recover from this global viral outbreak but we did not invest in NCLH so it will not affect us (note:  if we could have invested only in Regent, we would have but the results would have been the same).  

[wishIweretravelling]

My broker informs me that NCLH is planning to start paying a small dividend. However, this was at the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak. The progression of the disease and its economic impact may result in at least a postponement of that dividend.

[flossie009]

11 hours ago, wishIweretravelling said:

My broker informs me that NCLH is planning to start paying a small dividend.

A senior Director of RSSC also told us that at least 2 years ago .............. but no sign of dividends yet .......... and as you say highly unlikely in the present business climate.

[mrlevin]

Debt to equity now over 120%.  Current S&P rating BB- which is already junk; I wonder what happens at next assessment.  Not a word out of FDR since earnings call last week (except for his speech at christening).   Here is an interesting article on CC from 30 Sep 2001 regarding Renaissance bankruptcy:

 

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/news.cfm?ID=349

 

Some anecdotal evidence of people cancelling cruises yet no update on Regent website except for removing post-Manilla cruises on Voyager.  Communications would be nice.  

 

Marc

 

PS I am still bullish on Regent (NCLH); I have decided to buy at $30 in order to get OBC.

 

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by mrlevin

[slidebite]

Totally hypothesizing here...

 

I think there is still significant downside on cruise lines. With Covid starting to get a toehold in Europe (Italy is probably the worst European country for cruise exposure), I think the risk of European sailings being impacted, while maybe not large, is probably no longer insignificant. If that becomes an issue, the fun is just beginning.

 

The effect of the cancellations in Asia is not going to be good news for financials - I'm not sure when to begin worrying about the health of individual cruise lines, but I suspect the ones that are already highly leveraged are going to be ones to watch first.

 

Do cruise lines have their own insurance for events like this or are they eating the loss?

[jeb_bud]

A couple of days ago I thought if the stock went down to $40 I might buy some. It blew through that too fast for me to see. As I type this the stock is selling for $36.54. I’ll probably buy some but not until it looks like it bottomed. 
 

It looks like Marc has the right idea waiting $30 to buy. 

[cuddles115]

1 hour ago, jeb_bud said:

A couple of days ago I thought if the stock went down to $40 I might buy some. It blew through that too fast for me to see. As I type this the stock is selling for $36.54. I’ll probably buy some but not until it looks like it bottomed. 
 

It looks like Marc has the right idea waiting $30 to buy. 

IMHO this is not the time to buy NCLH.  Morgan Stanley downgraded it from overweight. The world-wide coronavirus is just beginning. It will show up in first and second quarter company results. Witness the fact that the Dow was plus  big points at the beginning of the session and is fighting to remain in positive territory at the end. The "smart money" realizes that there's more to come(lower prices). Although NCLH has not been this low since 11/2016, this may be only the beginning.  $30.00/share?????

[mrlevin]

19 hours ago, jeb_bud said:

A couple of days ago I thought if the stock went down to $40 I might buy some. It blew through that too fast for me to see. As I type this the stock is selling for $36.54. I’ll probably buy some but not until it looks like it bottomed. 
 

It looks like Marc has the right idea waiting $30 to buy. 

 

I've given up on trying to buy at $30; it is probably going to break through $30 even before any more bad news on future bookings.  Does anyone know how far in advance you need to own the stock in order to claim the shipboard credit?

 

thanks,

 

Marc

[Anchorbuoy]

2 hours ago, mrlevin said:

I've given up on trying to buy at $30; it is probably going to break through $30 even before any more bad news on future bookings.  Does anyone know how far in advance you need to own the stock in order to claim the shipboard credit?

 

You need to provide a copy of a brokerage statement showing proof of ownership, or a proxy card.  A copy of your trade confirmation should suffice.  If that is accepted, you could submit the SHB request the day after your stock purchase clears.  You need to submit the request at least 15 days prior to sailing.

Download the request form at: http://www.nclhltdinvestor.com

Edited February 27, 2020 by Anchorbuoy

[Anchorbuoy]

On 2/27/2020 at 9:40 AM, mrlevin said:

I've given up on trying to buy at $30; it is probably going to break through $30 even before any more bad news on future bookings.  Does anyone know how far in advance you need to own the stock in order to claim the shipboard credit?

 

Marc:

Did you get your order placed ?  It bottomed at $28 yesterday and closed at $28.59

[mrlevin]

1 hour ago, Anchorbuoy said:

 

Marc:

Did you get your order placed ?  It bottomed at $28 yesterday and closed at $28.59

 

I had strike at $28.00; bid dropped to $28.00 but ask only dropped to $28.01 so trade never got made.  I lowered strike price again as there has yet to be any NCLH specific bad news.  I figure $200 to $300 shipboard credit a year will act as a dividend of close to 10%.

 

Marc