NCLH Stock Price

[At Sea At Peace]

31 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

As they say, no news is good news. Today's a day full of news which means NCLH's future isn't looking so bright. There's no net profit for NCLH in 2022 and that trend will continue into the first quarter of 2023. So much for that last half of the year positive EBIDTA eh? 

 

Source: https://www.nclhltd.com/investors/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001104659-23-004834/0001104659-23-004834.pdf

 

Looks like NCLH is also looking to pay their debt due in 2024 with more debt that will be due in 2028. It's never great to finance debt payment by taking on more debt. 

 

Am I missing anything?

 

Not really missing anything because they didn't tell us everything; specifically both sides of the liquidity coin.  😉

 

"Our liquidity consisted of cash and cash equivalents of approximately $1 billion and a $1 billion undrawn commitment less related fees as of December 31, 2022, compared to cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.7 billion and a $1 billion undrawn commitment less related fees as of December 31, 2021."

 

So we have cash of $1 billion at 12/31/22; not really from earnings, rather again from customer deposits, which at 9/30/22 were $2.3 billion.  No mention of such at 12/31/22, but only $1.5 billion 12/31/21.

 

If 62% booked for 2023 compared to very low 2022 bookings reported at 12/31/21, i.e., customer deposits will be 'significantly larger' at 12/31/22 than 12/31/21.

 

Houston, we have a . . . . . 

 

 

[cruiseny4life]

2 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Not really missing anything because they didn't tell us everything; specifically both sides of the liquidity coin.  😉

 

"Our liquidity consisted of cash and cash equivalents of approximately $1 billion and a $1 billion undrawn commitment less related fees as of December 31, 2022, compared to cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments of $1.7 billion and a $1 billion undrawn commitment less related fees as of December 31, 2021."

 

So we have cash of $1 billion at 12/31/22; not really from earnings, rather again from customer deposits, which at 9/30/22 were $2.3 billion.  No mention of such at 12/31/22, but only $1.5 billion 12/31/21.

 

If 62% booked for 2023 compared to very low 2022 bookings reported at 12/31/21, i.e., customer deposits will be 'significantly larger' at 12/31/22 than 12/31/21.

 

Houston, we have a . . . . . 

 

 

Uh oh....that's kind of what I thought. I did notice in the statement they plan on drawing down on the $1 billion dollar commitment in 2025. Whatever that is. I'm sure I could find it, but I work a day job!

 

@BermudaBound2014, that explains why you weren't all over this. You are my source for NCLH news! But, I'm glad you're enjoying a cruise and I hope the cutbacks aren't eating into your experience too badly.

 

Much as I malign the industry, I understand the cuts, but also realize more are happening. I'd be more willing to give a slight pass to NCLH if a certain person would take a haircut on his pay.

Edited January 20, 2023 by cruiseny4life

[PUNKT2]

17 hours ago, cruiseny4life said:

So much for that last half of the year positive EBIDTA eh? 

Depends on the amount of the "I", no?

[cruiseny4life]

8 minutes ago, PUNKT2 said:

Depends on the amount of the "I", no?

Q3 was $152 million...can't exactly extrapolate that to the entire year and cleanly say it'll be $600 million. The number we hear in February will be a lot though! 

 

Regardless, that's a lot more than NCLH made in net revenue...since that number will be negative for 2022. I'm not sure how a publicly traded company stays alive while making nothing for shareholders year over year for however many years this will continue. 

[PUNKT2]

45 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

I'm not sure how a publicly traded company stays alive while making nothing for shareholders year over year for however many years this will continue. 

There's clearly plenty of precedence for publicly traded companies staying alive for years without making money - see Amazon, Tesla, etc, and it was a profitable company (and industry) before.

 

Given the $500m due in 2028 announced earlier, seems like that might be the timeline? Would be interesting to see the rate of paying down all the debt raised, and how that aligns with the new ships coming out, which *should* result in record revenues YoY during that same timeframe.

Edited January 20, 2023 by PUNKT2

[LloydJr]

NLCH is up 5.78% today.  I guess those investors have made the mistake of not checking CC prior to buying NCLH.

[CrazyTrain2]

NCLH is making numerous major changes to their product in response to cost reductions.  Inevitably they will need to raise fares to cover goods inflation, labor inflation and increased interest charges.  Once people cycle through the new normal for NCL product, individuals will make value judgements on whether to continue to travel with NCL or any other cruise line versus other travel types.

 

Right now, the lines are working through the post-covid honeymoon excess demand.  "I want to go anywhere, anyhow, anyway". Once demand normalizes well see how it all flushes out.

 

[cruiseny4life]

4 hours ago, PUNKT2 said:

There's clearly plenty of precedence for publicly traded companies staying alive for years without making money - see Amazon, Tesla, etc, and it was a profitable company (and industry) before.

 

Given the $500m due in 2028 announced earlier, seems like that might be the timeline? Would be interesting to see the rate of paying down all the debt raised, and how that aligns with the new ships coming out, which *should* result in record revenues YoY during that same timeframe.

Agreed...if they don't cancel some of the new ships they have coming. I suppose they may scrap a few of the older ships. Lord knows they've run their course...then they can replace them with the pr1ma class ships.

 

Personally, I don't care about record revenues YoY; it's the net revenue I look at. I get your point though. Definitely a lot of investors do just care about the gross. 

[LloydJr]

6 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

I suppose they may scrap a few of the older ships. Lord knows they've run their course...

Which of the older NCL ships have you sailed on?

[cruiseny4life]

3 hours ago, LloydJr said:

Which of the older NCL ships have you sailed on?

Absolutely none, nor will I. I've only cruised Getaway. Joy in March!

[Crazy planning mom]

The NCL Jade was very nice.  It had been renovated and was in good conditon.

[cruiseny4life]

I'm sure it is, but the small ships don't have a Haven Restaurant, therefore they're off limits to me.

[complawyer]

hey cruiseny4life. smaller ncl ships may not have a designated haven restaurant, but you still get special breakfast in moderno and lunch in cagney's it may not appear as "elegant" as a true haven restaurant, but take it from me, it aint bad! we were recently n the gem, and loved every minute of our breakfast and lunch. after a few days, the waiter had a glass of champagne waiting for us at breakfast and lunch. 

[At Sea At Peace]

On 1/19/2023 at 4:15 PM, cruiseny4life said:

 

So much for that last half of the year positive EBIDTA eh? 

 

 

22 hours ago, PUNKT2 said:

Depends on the amount of the "I", no?

 

Actually,  Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is what they had purported as being positive.  So, the 'amount of the "I" doesn't mathematically come in to play.  It was already an omen that they changed from net income to EBITDA in the first place.  😉

[PUNKT2]

On 1/21/2023 at 9:02 AM, At Sea At Peace said:

 

 

Actually,  Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) is what they had purported as being positive.  So, the 'amount of the "I" doesn't mathematically come in to play.  It was already an omen that they changed from net income to EBITDA in the first place.  😉

Of course - I was asleep at my keyboard. Saw late last week that 2H was revised to "nearly break even". I assume FY 2023 guidance will be shared on the Q4/FY '22 earnings call in a few weeks. Seems analysts are calling for $1.10-$1.15, which while a far cry from where it was, is at least positive.

[At Sea At Peace]

NP.  We all do it.  😄

 

NCLH, as well as the other two of the big three, have shifted the focus to EBITDA from earnings (net income).  Sort of like politicians.  🤣

 

For any business one cannot survive long term with only 'positive' EBITDA.  At some point, without borrowing funds (or liquidating assets), interest expense (now a massive 'multiple' to pre-pandemic in amount of debt and cost via interest rates) has to be serviced.  

 

Depreciation and amortization, although noncash amounts, also reflect the declining value of the assets (ships, port facilities, etc.) which secure the long-term debt.  Debt holders secured by such assets that are declining in value will want their debt maturities paid and/or a much higher interest (risk) rate.

 

I guess we'll all see what 2023 brings.  There are so many 'balls up in the air' that even the best juggler would have to admit some of them might drop and impact the cruise industry (and the economy).

 

[cruiseny4life]

It's looking more possible I might get my chance to purchase 100 shares of NCLH. That magical $10 price is closer than the stock's most recent high. Still has $2.67 to go (as of 1:30 EST, 3/15). 

 

What's the chance that I'll get to purchase me some NCLH in the next couple weeks? 

 

*rubbing hands in delight* until that $10/share price becomes $0. 🤠

[laudergayle]

1 minute ago, cruiseny4life said:

What's the chance that I'll get to purchase me some NCLH in the next couple weeks? 

🤷‍♀️. Zilch…I hope.  I’m in at $12.90…first 100 shares were at $16 and have been dollar-cost-averaging to get down to $12.90.  

[complawyer]

we bought 100 shares at $7.00 just after covid hit, so im not really worried, but i hope it doesnt go down to 10

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, cruiseny4life said:

It's looking more possible I might get my chance to purchase 100 shares of NCLH. That magical $10 price is closer than the stock's most recent high. Still has $2.67 to go (as of 1:30 EST, 3/15). 

 

What's the chance that I'll get to purchase me some NCLH in the next couple weeks? 

 

*rubbing hands in delight* until that $10/share price becomes $0. 🤠

 

I'm in a different time zone (literally and figuratively) so I haven't been keeping up like I normally would, but I do have an alert set for the 28th when CCL releases. As history suggests, that release will pull NCLH too. 

[LloydJr]

1 hour ago, cruiseny4life said:

It's looking more possible I might get my chance to purchase 100 shares of NCLH. That magical $10 price is closer than the stock's most recent high. Still has $2.67 to go (as of 1:30 EST, 3/15). 

 

What's the chance that I'll get to purchase me some NCLH in the next couple weeks? 

 

*rubbing hands in delight* until that $10/share price becomes $0. 🤠

Why do you need it to be $10 per share before you buy?  Do you only have $1000 to invest?  Don't you have any upcoming cruises?

[cruiseny4life]

21 minutes ago, LloydJr said:

Why do you need it to be $10 per share before you buy?  Do you only have $1000 to invest?  Don't you have any upcoming cruises?

I don't want to put more than $1,000 into NCLH. It's a rocky boat to invest in, at best. 

 

Currently, other than my 3/18 cruise, I have none. I also know NCLH reserves the right to modify/cancel the shareholder onboard credit at any time, so I'm a bit leery of investing just for OBC. 

 

Plus, given the ethics of the company, I'm not exactly jumping to cruise with NCLH (or any other line) in the near future. A deal, like those 50% Alaska coupons might have me singing a different tune, but I haven't yet clicked purchase. 

[LloydJr]

1 hour ago, cruiseny4life said:

I don't want to put more than $1,000 into NCLH. It's a rocky boat to invest in, at best. 

 

Currently, other than my 3/18 cruise, I have none. I also know NCLH reserves the right to modify/cancel the shareholder onboard credit at any time, so I'm a bit leery of investing just for OBC. 

 

Plus, given the ethics of the company, I'm not exactly jumping to cruise with NCLH (or any other line) in the near future. A deal, like those 50% Alaska coupons might have me singing a different tune, but I haven't yet clicked purchase. 

Thanks.  I don't really understand the ethics concern, but that's okay.  When I invest in US total market index funds, I'm buying stock in most US companies.  I'm sure I don't agree with the ethics of some (or maybe most?), but invest we must.

 

Even if NCL stock goes to zero, I'll still come out ahead with the shareholder OBC.  If I was nervous, I would sell my 100 shares.  I'm not.

[Mikiejag]

2 hours ago, complawyer said:

we bought 100 shares at $7.00 just after covid hit, so im not really worried, but i hope it doesnt go down to 10

Dang it.  I missed that and bought in at $16, still hoping for $50 again, bought extra every time it dropped.  So I have extra and can still keep the OBC.

[LloydJr]

31 minutes ago, Mikiejag said:

Dang it.  I missed that and bought in at $16, still hoping for $50 again, bought extra every time it dropped.  So I have extra and can still keep the OBC.

Why would you need "extra?"  I bought and hold 100 shares simply for the OBC.  I'm not looking to make money off of the stock and I'm not worried about the stock's daily price fluctuations.  It's just a means to reduce the final cost of every NCL cruise by $100.  When I get to old to cruise, I'll just dump it.