NCLH Stock Price

[Panhandle Couple]

1 hour ago, Cjonthesea said:

Earnings report in one week, I believe. Mere coincidence? Maybe.

Final 2022 report was released several weeks ago.

1st qtr 2023 ends on 1 April.  Roughly 60 days after that the report will come out.

 

No nefarious timing on anyone's part.

 

[Beezo]

1 hour ago, Panhandle Couple said:

Final 2022 report was released several weeks ago.

1st qtr 2023 ends on 1 April.  Roughly 60 days after that the report will come out.

 

No nefarious timing on anyone's part.

 

Agreed. I think this is getting too much scrutiny. Average shelf life of a CEO tenure is 5 years. He has been in role for 8 years. Transition is over 3 months and not abrupt. Staying on as advisor until 2025. 
 

If was negative performance or a ‘problem’ it wouldn’t look like this. 

[njhorseman]

4 hours ago, Happycrafter123 said:

The succession plan looks well thought out, we will see how the market reacts.

Apparently Wall St. isn't happy . DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all up today. Carnival is up, Royal is down, but NCLH is down over twice as much percentage wise as Royal.

The UBS deal to buy Credit Suisse probably drove the broad averages higher, but NCLH underperformed its peers.

Edited March 20, 2023 by njhorseman

[BermudaBound2014]

FDR set up his son as the Cheif Sales and Marketing officer for Oceana. The Del Rio legacy continues.

 

We can speculate for days about why FDR retired, but what isn't speculation is that he is the only CEO to have accepted a large raise during the heat of the pandemic while his counterpartners took salary reductions. All this in spite of a overwhelmingly shareholder vote against it. That's the headline I'll remember.

 

 

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

FDR set up his son as the Cheif Sales and Marketing officer for Oceana. The Del Rio legacy continues.

His son was promoted to President of Oceania on January 1.

Edited March 20, 2023 by njhorseman

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

His son was promoted to President of Oceania on January 1.

 

Oh wow, thanks! I always appreciate you.

 

Admittedly, I don't keep up like I should while I'm here on Maui. I haven't even listened to world news since the middle of January and the 6 hour time change really puts a damper in day trading. Getting up at 3:00 just isn't in the cards so I sort of sit the winter out. Plenty of time to play when I return to the mainland in May. Looks to me like cruising is still quite the sh*t show. 

 

I did set a reminder note to see what CCL has to say next Tuesday. That should be interesting.

[njhorseman]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I did set a reminder note to see what CCL has to say next Tuesday. That should be interesting.

Carnival was the only one of the big three whose stock price increased today. Perhaps the street is expecting reasonably good news.

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, njhorseman said:

Carnival was the only one of the big three whose stock price increased today. Perhaps the street is expecting reasonably good news.

 

I think today was a blip due to the Duetsche Bank headline. We'll know more next week.

 

Carnival is tipped by Deutsche Bank to see post-earnings rally next week | Seeking Alpha

[njhorseman]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Admittedly, I don't keep up like I should while I'm here on Maui

To paraphrase a line falsely attributed to WC Fields, "All in all I'd rather be in Maui"  (than in NJ and having easy access to the market news).😄

[LloydJr]

17 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

To paraphrase a line falsely attributed to WC Fields

To quote a line attributed to Jack Bogle:

When it comes to stock prices, "nobody knows nothin' "

 

Buy and hold diversified stocks at low expenses.  Everything else is just a combination of noise and gambling.  Unless you have insider info, the entire market knows everything that you know.

[Panhandle Couple]

3 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Carnival was the only one of the big three whose stock price increased today. Perhaps the street is expecting reasonably good news.

I saw a headline that one analyst said to buy CCL based on a good report due tomorrow.  Of course, that SHOULD be speculation, or someone is getting insider knowledge.

 

Looking at the minute by minute stock price of all 3 today, the curves are very close match.  An up and down before noon, then generally down after that.  The overall level is not as important as the trend.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

38 minutes ago, Panhandle Couple said:

I saw a headline that one analyst said to buy CCL based on a good report due tomorrow.  Of course, that SHOULD be speculation, or someone is getting insider knowledge.

 

Looking at the minute by minute stock price of all 3 today, the curves are very close match.  An up and down before noon, then generally down after that.  The overall level is not as important as the trend.

 

The million $$ question remains, how much was market manipulation?

 

BTW- The curves have been matched extremely close the last three years. What happens to one, happens to them all. 
 

 

 

[At Sea At Peace]

On 3/18/2023 at 7:07 PM, ChiefMateJRK said:

Airlines?  Sure. 

 

👍

 

On 3/18/2023 at 7:07 PM, ChiefMateJRK said:

Railroads?  Not so much.  The systemic pattern of RR bankruptcies extends back to the dawn of railroading.  As a parallel to your comments, one of the core problems with RRs was overcapacity with the introduction of the interstate highway system and, to a lesser extent, air travel.  I don't think the cruise lines face that type of challenge.  

 

Unlike the almost $90B cash cumulatively directly to airline publicly-owned corporations, the aid to the railroads was also indirect and/or noncash.

 

It is massive, was historically, as well.  It used to be that railroads were built by railroad companies (originally three primarily) after millions of acres of federal land grants were given to them as well as financing enhanced government backed bonds.  The railroad companies built the railroads.

 

Now, the government pays for most construction and mostly directly, calls it infrastructure.  

 

Cruise lines do not get anything comparable to the airlines (direct) or the railroads (historically indirect and/or noncash and moving massively to direct).

 

https://railroads.dot.gov/BIL

 

IMO, there is no public sentiment that there are any parallels from the airlines and railroads to the cruise industry.  In fact, the disdain towards cruise lines at the public domain level is quite negative.  Regarding "oversupply," I see it differently. 

 

The cruise lines pre-pandemic growth orders will continue to significantly increase industry capacity beyond plateauing or falling demand and that will be quite detrimental.  Not 'doom and gloom' just not through rose-colored glasses.  😉

 

 

What Does This Mean for FRA? 

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) (Pub. L. 117-58), also known as the “Bipartisan Infrastructure Law”, will provide unprecedented Federal funding for rail improvement projects in America. Over the next five years, that means greatly expanding existing Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) programs and creating new programs to enhance our nation’s rail network. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law includes $102 billion in total rail funding, including $66 billion from advanced appropriations, and $36 billion in authorized funding.

 

 

[Sim1979]

NCLH Stock price have gone up a lot lately, i'm wondering why it's been going up that much?

[prov2727]

20 minutes ago, Sim1979 said:

NCLH Stock price have gone up a lot lately, i'm wondering why it's been going up that much?

I'm working on my 100 for a cruise in January and was wondering the same thing. Since spring is the busiest season, perhaps it is looking like a better risk and will go back down as we get into late summer/fall?

[brigand13]

All three major cruiselines have seen stock price gains in the past month (RCL is up over $90 right now!!).  I think strong bookings and a hopefully improving economy may be at the heart of it.  I just wish the rest of my stock would move in the same direction as my cruise stocks!!  😜

[luv2kroooz]

1 hour ago, Sim1979 said:

NCLH Stock price have gone up a lot lately, i'm wondering why it's been going up that much?

Bank of America upgraded CCL on Monday. All cruise stocks reacted favorably.

[BrianLo]

Data has come out the 2024 bookings are also looking to be strong (historical loads on 2023 Q3/4) - so I think they are looking like even if there is a travel slow down in consumer spending cruise lines might skip past it since the booking lead times are so long.

 

NCLH is still significantly below its pre-pandemic market cap. Its stock was significantly diluted during the pandemic, but the market cap should slowly recover with post-pandemic normalization.

 

Basically I think WallStreet has learned their answer that yes the market came back to cruising and is reasonably staying back. There was some fear the cruise demand would never actually recover, but that's now obviously not the case. It just took a good year+ longer than land vacations.

Edited June 14, 2023 by BrianLo

[mking8288]

FDR "officially" retiring end of this month. Just reported that he sold about 1/4 of his NCLH shares worth about $5.5 m. 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/finance/frank-del-rio-sells-55m-nclh-shares

 

 

[luv2kroooz]

1 hour ago, mking8288 said:

FDR "officially" retiring end of this month.

That news would definitely increase stock price. 😁😁

[fstuff1]

12 hours ago, mking8288 said:

FDR "officially" retiring end of this month. Just reported that he sold about 1/4 of his NCLH shares worth about $5.5 m. 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/finance/frank-del-rio-sells-55m-nclh-shares

Wow he sold that many shares and the price still climbed.

 

The reason price climbed was 3x revenue year over year.

But how much of that was profit?

Ie: to pay off the huge debt