NCLH Stock Price

[Crazy planning mom]

Do you think RCL and NCL could merge?

[BermudaBound2014]

4 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Do you think RCL and NCL could merge?

 

My opinion.... a resounding NO.

 

Excess inventory is one of the greatest challenges to all three lines. Too may cabins. Too few people willing to book them

 

However; the biggest challenge is debt load.  I've been saying all along that restructuring makes complete sense to me. Wipe out the shareholders and start fresh without debt.

 

There will always be cruise ships for consumers to sail on. 

[Beezo]

Didn’t think I’d see the day this soon where RCL’s market cap is higher than Carnivals. 
 

[Beezo]

Saw this in Cruise Industry News:

 

“According to a press release, given Costa Cruises' significant presence in Asia, particularly China, which remains closed to cruising, the brand continues to evaluate deployment options and fleet optimization alternatives beyond the previously announced transfers of Costa Luminosa to Carnival Cruise Line as well as Costa Venezia and Costa Firenze to the COSTA by CARNIVAL concept.”

 

Fleet optimization is key here (look at Viking and RCL/Celebrity).

 

HAL has 4 Classes (R, Vista, Signature, Pinnacle). If they remove the last remaining R-Class ships, Volendam and Zaandam, they will have 9 ships in 3 classes.

AIDA has 4 classes (V, Sphinx, Hyperion, and Excellence/Helios). If they remove the last V-Class, AIDAaura, they will have 11 ships in 3 classes.

PRINCESS has 3 Classes if you blend the Grand variants of Gem and Crown in to Grand-Class (Grand, Coral, and Royal) with 15 ships.

 

Brands with too many variants: P&O, Carnival, and Costa:

Costa (TODAY) has 5 Classes (Destiny, Concordia, Spirit, Dream, Excellence, Vista). This is currently 12 ships across 6 classes. Even with the two and only two Vista ships leaving to Carnival, that's still 10 ships across 5 Classes. They will also have two single class ships (Costa Diadema Dream Class and Costa Deliziosa Spirit Class).

 

I somewhat think you may see Diadema and Deliziosa follow Luminosa to Carnival as they exit Elation and Paradise.  This adds two ships to existing classes.

 

Just my two cents 🙂

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, Beezo said:

Saw this in Cruise Industry News:

 

“According to a press release, given Costa Cruises' significant presence in Asia, particularly China, which remains closed to cruising, the brand continues to evaluate deployment options and fleet optimization alternatives beyond the previously announced transfers of Costa Luminosa to Carnival Cruise Line as well as Costa Venezia and Costa Firenze to the COSTA by CARNIVAL concept.”

 

Fleet optimization is key here (look at Viking and RCL/Celebrity).

 

HAL has 4 Classes (R, Vista, Signature, Pinnacle). If they remove the last remaining R-Class ships, Volendam and Zaandam, they will have 9 ships in 3 classes.

AIDA has 4 classes (V, Sphinx, Hyperion, and Excellence/Helios). If they remove the last V-Class, AIDAaura, they will have 11 ships in 3 classes.

PRINCESS has 3 Classes if you blend the Grand variants of Gem and Crown in to Grand-Class (Grand, Coral, and Royal) with 15 ships.

 

Brands with too many variants: P&O, Carnival, and Costa:

Costa (TODAY) has 5 Classes (Destiny, Concordia, Spirit, Dream, Excellence, Vista). This is currently 12 ships across 6 classes. Even with the two and only two Vista ships leaving to Carnival, that's still 10 ships across 5 Classes. They will also have two single class ships (Costa Diadema Dream Class and Costa Deliziosa Spirit Class).

 

I somewhat think you may see Diadema and Deliziosa follow Luminosa to Carnival as they exit Elation and Paradise.  This adds two ships to existing classes.

 

Just my two cents 🙂

 

 

 

There have been some rumbling that Costa maybe on it's way out of the CCL umbrella. Of course, just rumor at this point. 

[Beezo]

1 minute ago, Beezo said:

Saw this in Cruise Industry News:

 

“According to a press release, given Costa Cruises' significant presence in Asia, particularly China, which remains closed to cruising, the brand continues to evaluate deployment options and fleet optimization alternatives beyond the previously announced transfers of Costa Luminosa to Carnival Cruise Line as well as Costa Venezia and Costa Firenze to the COSTA by CARNIVAL concept.”

 

Fleet optimization is key here (look at Viking and RCL/Celebrity).

 

HAL has 4 Classes (R, Vista, Signature, Pinnacle). If they remove the last remaining R-Class ships, Volendam and Zaandam, they will have 9 ships in 3 classes.

AIDA has 4 classes (V, Sphinx, Hyperion, and Excellence/Helios). If they remove the last V-Class, AIDAaura, they will have 11 ships in 3 classes.

PRINCESS has 3 Classes if you blend the Grand variants of Gem and Crown in to Grand-Class (Grand, Coral, and Royal) with 15 ships.

 

Brands with too many variants: P&O, Carnival, and Costa:

Costa (TODAY) has 5 Classes (Destiny, Concordia, Spirit, Dream, Excellence, Vista). This is currently 12 ships across 6 classes. Even with the two and only two Vista ships leaving to Carnival, that's still 10 ships across 5 Classes. They will also have two single class ships (Costa Diadema Dream Class and Costa Deliziosa Spirit Class).

 

I somewhat think you may see Diadema and Deliziosa follow Luminosa to Carnival as they exit Elation and Paradise.  This adds two ships to existing classes.

 

Just my two cents 🙂

 

 

And to clarify - I'm meaning on a per brand profitability perspective.  They each are obviously responsible for their own P&L.

[mscdivina2016]

Well my CCL buy for the bump bit me in the arse.

Sold all at opening for a 10% loss.

 

 

Been watching it today and at some point will buy CUK at a low to recoup since it's 20% down already.

[oteixeira]

7 minutes ago, mscdivina2016 said:

Well my CCL buy for the bump bit me in the arse.

Sold all at opening for a 10% loss.

 

 

Been watching it today and at some point will buy CUK at a low to recoup since it's 20% down already.

 

Sorry it didn't work for you, but at least you didn't hold it.  Looks like it will finish down 20% total at this pace.

[Beezo]

55 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

There have been some rumbling that Costa maybe on it's way out of the CCL umbrella. Of course, just rumor at this point. 

Interesting.  I had heard Seabourn and/or Cunard in that mix as well.

 

All while reading yesterday the Saudi Wealth Fund holds $600B in assets today.  I'm thinking they will swoop in on Seabourn at a minimum sooner than later.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, Beezo said:

Interesting.  I had heard Seabourn and/or Cunard in that mix as well.

 

All while reading yesterday the Saudi Wealth Fund holds $600B in assets today.  I'm thinking they will swoop in on Seabourn at a minimum sooner than later.

 

 

I've been suggesting the Saudi's for Seabourn for about 6 months now. The luxury market has the best look moving forward. 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, mscdivina2016 said:

Well my CCL buy for the bump bit me in the arse.

Sold all at opening for a 10% loss.

 

 

Been watching it today and at some point will buy CUK at a low to recoup since it's 20% down already.

 

The miss was bigger than expected :(. Glad you didn't hold. This still has room to move down.

[mscdivina2016]

17 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

The miss was bigger than expected :(. Glad you didn't hold. This still has room to move down.

I agree,

 I am tempted to watch the weekend and double my buy so I only need 5% gain to break even.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

5 minutes ago, mscdivina2016 said:

I agree,

 I am tempted to watch the weekend and double my buy so I only need 5% gain to break even.

 

 

I concur that a rebound is possible next week, but I suspect that when NCL reports it will be worse than CCL, driving all three much lower. 

 

 

Edited September 30, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[oteixeira]

8 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I concur that a rebound is possible next week, but I suspect that when NCL reports it will be worse than CCL, driving all three much lower. 

 

 

NCLH and RCL are both a month out, first week of November, so there is recovery time from now to then.....but I am sure other things will not help (Fed, Inflation, war, etc, etc)

[BermudaBound2014]

5 hours ago, oteixeira said:

It almost touched 7 flat.  Wow.  So how many shorts do you still have open?  I know it may be crazy to say but I would be itching to close them after a week of re-testing June lows capped off by a Friday like this for all 3 of the cruise stocks.

 

Ding ding ding. 80% of my shorts just filled for CCL. It's been one heck of a ride holding these for over a year, but patience paid off.

[styxfire]

On 9/30/2022 at 10:48 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Excess inventory is one of the greatest challenges to all three lines. Too may cabins. Too few people willing to book them

 

However; the biggest challenge is debt load.  I've been saying all along that restructuring makes complete sense to me. Wipe out the shareholders and start fresh without debt.

Regarding your first statement, that's my perception too.  Which is why I'm so puzzled that all of the major cruiselines have mentioned LACK of capacity as one of their greatest challenges.  They aren't cancelling their ship orders, that's for sure.  And now Four Seasons wants to join the industry and profit from excess demand, too.

 

These corporations wouldn't be making the decisions their making if they saw evidence of softening demand down the road.

 

Regarding your 2nd statement, "restructuring"...  I suspect no judge would grant that.  All the majors have shored up their liquidity and are still able to service their debt.  And they are all forecasting improvement in their financial strength, not deceleration.  A judge cannot simply wipe away creditors & investors to make a company financially better-off.   Bankruptcy is a last resort, and I don't see CCL, RCL or NCLH meeting those bankruptcy standards in the near-term.

 

Knock on wood.  (or ship-railing...)

[BermudaBound2014]

7 minutes ago, styxfire said:

Regarding your first statement, that's my perception too.  Which is why I'm so puzzled that all of the major cruiselines have mentioned LACK of capacity as one of their greatest challenges.  They aren't cancelling their ship orders, that's for sure.  And now Four Seasons wants to join the industry and profit from excess demand, too.

 

These corporations wouldn't be making the decisions their making if they saw evidence of softening demand down the road.

 

Regarding your 2nd statement, "restructuring"...  I suspect no judge would grant that.  All the majors have shored up their liquidity and are still able to service their debt.  And they are all forecasting improvement in their financial strength, not deceleration.  A judge cannot simply wipe away creditors & investors to make a company financially better-off.   Bankruptcy is a last resort, and I don't see CCL, RCL or NCLH meeting those bankruptcy standards in the near-term.

 

Knock on wood.  (or ship-railing...)

 

First paragraph: Can you please link me to anywhere the cruise lines are claiming "lack of capacity' as a challenge? 

 

Second Paragraph: They are obligated under contract to continue the new builds. I

 

Third Paragraph: Yes, they are predicting improvement but the question is how quickly? At some point the piper gets paid. They aren't even making enough to pay interest only on the debt. 

[styxfire]

On 9/30/2022 at 12:06 PM, mscdivina2016 said:

Well my CCL buy for the bump bit me in the arse.

Sold all at opening for a 10% loss.

Sorry!  But good save on your part...  it lost >23%, so at least you avoided that.  Make sure to NOT purchase any CCL for the next 30 days (wash rule).

 

I did enter into CCL for the first time on Friday.  I made multiple long purchases throughout the day.  Ended the day with a 9% paper loss on the first day of holding it, LOL!!  I do see some upside potential.  It feels to me like gambling, though.

 

My NCLH holdings are continuing to oscillate between losses and break-even... can't get above that hump.

 

I would like to see the "Fact Set" forecast #s be more closely aligned with the companies' own forecasts.  Currently, many analysts are still projecting forecasts higher than the companies.  So it seems to be engineered to CAUSE a "disappointment", which allows the most risk-tolerant funds to accumulate at bargain prices.  

Edited October 2, 2022 by styxfire

[mscdivina2016]

3 hours ago, styxfire said:

Sorry!  But good save on your part...  it lost >23%, so at least you avoided that.  Make sure to NOT purchase any CCL for the next 30 days (wash rule).

 

I did enter into CCL for the first time on Friday.  I made multiple long purchases throughout the day.  Ended the day with a 9% paper loss on the first day of holding it, LOL!!  I do see some upside potential.  It feels to me like gambling, though.

 

My NCLH holdings are continuing to oscillate between losses and break-even... can't get above that hump.

 

I would like to see the "Fact Set" forecast #s be more closely aligned with the companies' own forecasts.  Currently, many analysts are still projecting forecasts higher than the companies.  So it seems to be engineered to CAUSE a "disappointment", which allows the most risk-tolerant funds to accumulate at bargain prices.  

I got the wash rule covered. I will buy CUK.😁

[Ombud]

On 10/2/2022 at 6:53 PM, mscdivina2016 said:

I got the wash rule covered. I will buy CUK.😁

Bought CCL @ 8.69 sold CCL @ 7.03 after recouping 1150 OBC 

Bought CUK @ 6.50 submitting form for 600 OBC.

Do I get to claim 169 loss or is it added to CUK base? 

[Ombud]

33 minutes ago, Ombud said:

On 10/2/2022 at 6:53 PM, mscdivina2016 said:

I got the wash rule covered. I will buy CUK.😁

Bought CCL @ 8.69 sold CCL @ 7.03 after recouping 1150 OBC 

Bought CUK @ 6.50 submitting form for 600 OBC.

Do I get to claim 166 loss or is it added to CUK base? 

Corrected

[jbcallender]

Well Im down big, but hey I got my $100 OBC.....maybe I'll get lucky in the casino!

[Beezo]

I didn’t think Carnival would go this low.

 

CCL: $6.36

CUK: $5.64

 

was there an agreement back in 2003 when Carnival acquired P&O Princess for how long they would remain dual listed? High level research - I read that it’s not very cost effective in recent times to continue dual listing based on annual costs. Does make sense to keep this current model, or consolidate at this point?

 

 

[styxfire]

7 hours ago, Beezo said:

I didn’t think Carnival would go this low.  CCL: $6.36     CUK: $5.64

 

Was there an agreement back in 2003 when Carnival acquired P&O Princess for how long they would remain dual listed? High level research - I read that it’s not very cost effective in recent times to continue dual listing based on annual costs...

I confess I didn't predict a drop below book-value for CCL...  despite some folks saying book-value would be meaningless if selling of assets became necessary.    I didn't know until reading this thread that there was a 2nd symbol for it (the CUK).  They are both NYSE.  Do they both represent the same set of books?  I'm a little confused why they trade at a different value.  I admit I haven't looked into that.

 

I also certainly didn't expect NCLH to trade this low again, right on the heels of last week's VERY positive statements at the investor summit.  I added to my position any time it hits 10's or $11's, and purchased again mid-day, but think I've reach my level of acceptable risk with NCLH.  I'm basically banking on the CEO's & CFO's authenticity with their projections.  And I'm certainly hoping they know the difference between "inflation demand" versus "product demand"...   I don't want to suffer for another year of $0 or negative-appreciation, and then find out when the inflation drivers went away, the cruise demand had weaned also.  

 

"They" say we've already been in recession for 2 quarters, because of negative GDP growth.  And then "they" tout all these things that are needed to make it a REAL recession...   real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”  And water the definition even further with the political drivel of the day, so basically a recession can "be or not to be", depending on which political party wants it "to be".  

[styxfire]

Here's what I accidentally posted on the RCL forum the other day (I forgot where I was)...

From an industry summary of Thursday morning's (Oct.6) comments, Del Rio said:

• the key is to have consumers feel they get a deal. By allowing consumers buy dining and beverage packages up front, as well shore excursions, they come onboard with a so-called “fresh wallet” and spend more.
• Onboard spending on the Norwegian Prima on its trans-Atlantic crossing had been double the company’s average.
• In 2018, 52% of the passengers bought packages in advance of their cruise. For 2022, it increased to 85%. His interpretation is that more cruises are “sticking,” meaning there are fewer cancellations and higher advance deposits.
• He said NCL will generate record EBITDA and net yield in 2023.
• He said bookings for 2023 were up from 2019, including a 16% capacity increase, and at significantly higher prices.

 

Mgmt of all the cruiselines talk as if there IS an end in sight.  Whether they're accurate or blowing smoke remains to be seen.  I'm invested.