NCLH Stock Price

[BermudaBound2014]

Wells Fargo just listed NCL in the top 50 stocks to short (or avoid). Not that I'm always 100% confident in Wells FArgo suggestions, but just how much lower are they expecting this to go?

 

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3849791-wells-fargo-names-50-stocks-to-short-or-at-least-avoid?mailingid=28109937&messageid=2900&serial=28109937.227932&source=email_2900&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=28109937.227932

Edited June 20, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[cruiseny4life]

11 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Wells Fargo just listed NCL in the top 50 stocks to short (or avoid).

I don't know how much "stock" I put in this list. Perhaps it's a short term list of stocks to avoid? I can't see avoiding Disney, Walmart, Citi, Boeing, and a few others as good for the long-term health of my holdings. I know the article says to short them and in the short-term, I definitely understand that. 

 

Of course I'm no expert (and when are the experts not wrong), but I think Disney gets past its political troubles so long as they maintain their current politics, Boeing will get past, Citi sure, and I'm confused as hell why Walmart is on the list, unless they hold a ton of inventory (like Target). 

 

Having said that, it'll be interesting to see how NCL goes in the next few months, especially as bookings drop when FCC's are used up. Yep, I think bookings will drop. I wonder how that statement will read in early 2023.

[CrazyTrain2]

Stock analysts are about as helpful as driving your car from the rear view mirror.  They tend to publish AFTER the stock has made the dramatic move.  Then point back to, "See I told you".  This is especially true towards the end of the month where they can look back and say we told you to short NCLH  in JUNE.

 

I think there is another shoe to drop in this market but I am nibbling back in - but not into NCLH (See my previous post).  I've only pick two bottoms in 40 years of investing.

[Beezo]

Well today kicked off an interesting session. Given the overall market is up, tied in with Carnival Corp's earnings this morning...midday:

 

CCL +15.14%

RCL +14.14%

NCL +14.01%

[graphicguy]

8 minutes ago, Beezo said:

Well today kicked off an interesting session. Given the overall market is up, tied in with Carnival Corp's earnings this morning...midday:

 

CCL +15.14%

RCL +14.14%

NCL +14.01%

Bought NCL at $11.10/share.  With the OBC I get, that’s a mighty nice ROI.

[BermudaBound2014]

13 minutes ago, Beezo said:

Well today kicked off an interesting session. Given the overall market is up, tied in with Carnival Corp's earnings this morning...midday:

 

CCL +15.14%

RCL +14.14%

NCL +14.01%

 

It's a bit Bizarre. CCL did not post positive IMO. They lost another 1.9 Billion dollars and occupancy fell well short of predictions (only 69%). I believe the market is responding to the deposits, but the debt is astronomical and CCL stated they won't see anything positive until 2023. Remember, last fall this company that predicted they would be back to pre-pandemic profits this quarter. 

 

Meanwhile, CCL just transferred two more ships from Costa. Movement is happening. 

 

 

[cruiseny4life]

13 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

It's a bit Bizarre.

That quote can describe the markets for the last 3 - 6 years. They have certainly not acted normally. This is one of the reasons I have a hard time listening to economists - even though it's human created, I think predicting the market is as accurate as predicting a snowstorm today for January 27th. 

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, cruiseny4life said:

That quote can describe the markets for the last 3 - 6 years. They have certainly not acted normally. This is one of the reasons I have a hard time listening to economists - even though it's human created, I think predicting the market is as accurate as predicting a snowstorm today for January 27th. 

 

For sure irrational. Especially this year. Companies have had great quarterlies and been severely punished. I absolutely believe in market manipulation. Unfortunately for the general economy, I've had the best luck this year predicting short trades. I suppose it's all part of the cycle. 

[Beezo]

With regards to Carnival - for starters, they are definitely working to cut costs and streamline business (well known). When the pandemic started they were incredibly quick to offload the Costa Victoria and neoRomantica. Those were older ships, as well as single-class ships at the time. There are tremendous synergies by operating more than one type of ship in a class.  Those specific ships didn't have sisters within the family of brands either. Easily first to go...

 

Below are the six ships I would anticipate are next in line for offloading, outside of what has been previously announced:

 

AIDA'a AidaAura - Last V-class ship after AidaVita's recent departure

Carnival's Elation & Paradise - Remove older tonnage and fleet simplification

HAL's Volendam & Zaandam - Final R-Class ships. Also lets HAL operate a simplified fleet of just Vista, Signature and Pinnacle-class ships

P&O's Aurora - Older ship in P&Os fleet. P&O currently has five ships in the fleet with only two in the same class. Aurora also does not have any within the family of brands.

 

There has also been discussions regarding the future of Seabourn. That would release 5 ships and 2 new builds (Odyssesy, Sojourn, Quest, Encore, Ovation, Venture and Pursuit). Although smaller ships, the oldest is 2009. True value would be an acquisition of all 7 plus the brand itself.

 

Within those discussions, I've seen that HAL & Cunard could be included as well.  By offloading the Maasdam, Veendam, Rotterdam, and Amsterdam I'm sure it lifted the profitability of the brand, more so if they release the remaining R-class ships I mentioned above.

 

These moves, in theory, would focus Carnival on US market (outside of the Costa by Carnival experiment), Costa on Italian market, AIDA on German market, and Princess as premium/upmarket globally. Costa by Carnival would help the erosion from MSC Cruises USA.

 

Just my two cents - Just the realistic business side of what Carnival has to evaluate.  They have $35B (with a B) in debt today. They paid $200M of debt principal and $400M of interest expenses this past quarter alone. They need to focus on the profitable ships and sell assets where its makes sense.

 

Brian

Edited June 24, 2022 by Beezo

[BermudaBound2014]

We are on the same page. All three companies are in serious financial trouble. It's bad when interest payments alone are more than positive cash flow. I did mention that the debt is astronomical? There will no doubt be more offloading.

 

CCL is in a tough spot because they are behemoth. They need to move fast. The Volendam is under contract with the Netherlands to house refugees. I suspect it will never return to the fleet. I actually see HAL as very vulnerable in all this, but I could be wrong. I am waiting to hear about Seabourn officially. The Saudi Sovereignty already has a vested financial interest in CCL.  

 

However, none of this matters unless they can get occupancy up. 69% isn't going to cut it. NCH has been posting occupancy numbers lower than CCL. Their quarterlies come up next month. The summer should provide some respite, but then we move into what has historically been the lowest occupancy season. Cruising has taken a beating. 

[Beezo]

Agree 100%.

 

CCL earnings they stated: “We are very pleased with our portfolio of brands but will always have an open mind to do that makes sense for our shareholders.”

 

hmmmmm 😉 

 

 

[At Sea At Peace]

On 6/24/2022 at 1:33 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 I did mention that the debt is astronomical?

 

Yep.

 

Also noted an article today.  Usually take such with a GOS, but did verify the debt data and did a little 'what's the impact chart. 

 

Here's the imputed debt load currently per 2019 pre-pandemic passengers; the average being $3,640.

 

I was surprised.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/27/why-cruise-line-stocks-dropped-today/

 

 

 

 

 

[ColeThornton]

CCL Hit a 52 week low of $8.66 this morning.    Anyone gonna touch that right now?

 

~ insert evil laugh ~     😉

 

NCLH down 10% so far today to $11.30.   52 week low for NCLH is $10.31.

[At Sea At Peace]

30 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

CCL Hit a 52 week low of $8.66 this morning.    Anyone gonna touch that right now?

 

~ insert evil laugh ~     😉

 

NCLH down 10% so far today to $11.30.   52 week low for NCLH is $10.31.

 

YIKES!

 

Been out this morning prepping for the 4th.

 

FYI, previously posted (somewhere) the NCLH March "low" adjusted for additions common shares issued and outstanding is (if I recall) $3.60 per share.

 

Got a ways to go.

 

CCL's investors earnings release was brutal fact set for all cruise lines, despite the cruise lines continued lipsticking of bookings are up (what month, what year, etc.), on board spending is up and the ships are all back.  FACT of the matter, year over year, their revenues were $4 billion higher than the $75M prior, and their losses were still almost $4 billion.  🙃

[BermudaBound2014]

Morgan Stanley slashed the base price to $7 this morning and this headline isn't helping either lol...

 

Carnival stock could fall to 0 in worst case scenario

 

"Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their base case price target to $7, according to Bloomberg, and maintained an Underweight rating on the stock. In a worst, or “bear case” scenario, Carnival’s (ticker: CCL ) price could reach zero, they added."

 

Unfortunately, I do believe 0 is a possibility for any of the big 3.

[cruiseny4life]

I really need to use my Cruise Next certificates soon...I was looking at late 23 or 24. Gotta convince the husband we need a cruise this year or we'll potentially lose our money! At this point would be ethical to sell the Cruise Next to someone (Cruise Critic, I am not soliciting). 

 

Come on NCL, keep steaming until we've gone on another cruise with you! 

[ColeThornton]

3 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Morgan Stanley slashed the base price to $7 this morning and this headline isn't helping either lol...

 

Carnival stock could fall to 0 in worst case scenario

 

"Morgan Stanley analysts slashed their base case price target to $7, according to Bloomberg, and maintained an Underweight rating on the stock. In a worst, or “bear case” scenario, Carnival’s (ticker: CCL ) price could reach zero, they added."

 

Unfortunately, I do believe 0 is a possibility for any of the big 3.

 

 

I got really lucky for timing a good bit back when NCL got down to around 8.   Cashed in a Jumbo CD that wasn't making zip in interest, rode the stock up until I tripled it and cashed in.   I'm not going to push my luck with the Stock Gods and try that again. 

 

Maybe.....   🙂

[BermudaBound2014]

7 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

 

 

I got really lucky for timing a good bit back when NCL got down to around 8.   Cashed in a Jumbo CD that wasn't making zip in interest, rode the stock up until I tripled it and cashed in.   I'm not going to push my luck with the Stock Gods and try that again. 

 

Maybe.....   🙂

 

I tripled my money going from $10 to $30. Cashed in. Switched to Shorts. I'll sell 80% of them in the single digits and ride the rest to zero. That's the plan anyway 😉 

[Crazy planning mom]

39 minutes ago, cruiseny4life said:

I really need to use my Cruise Next certificates soon...I was looking at late 23 or 24. Gotta convince the husband we need a cruise this year or we'll potentially lose our money! At this point would be ethical to sell the Cruise Next to someone (Cruise Critic, I am not soliciting). 

 

Come on NCL, keep steaming until we've gone on another cruise with you! 

Definitely,sail this year.

[bob brown]

I don't see how they can offer the shareholder obc, when the shares are selling so low...

[mscdivina2016]

12 hours ago, bob brown said:

I don't see how they can offer the shareholder obc, when the shares are selling so low...

It's great.  I am able to buy 100 shares, take a few longer ones in a year and get back more than I paid for the shares.

[CrazyTrain2]

12 hours ago, bob brown said:

I don't see how they can offer the shareholder obc, when the shares are selling so low...

OBC costs them practically nothing and is a marketing ploy to keep you cruising NCL.  

[KKB]

9 minutes ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

OBC costs them practically nothing and is a marketing ploy to keep you cruising NCL.  

EXACTLY--most people use it on things that cost the line nothing extra or very little extra.

Drinks? Mark up is INSANE.

Shopping? Again--insane markup.

Spa? Staff is there anyway, so no to little cost.

Internet? Costs them nothing more for you to get it.

Tips certainly cost them, and shore ex could as well (since NCL prices are inflated due to the $50 shore ex. credit)

 

Last summer there was a big back up at the port on the Edge on embarkation day. 

Mom waited 4 hours to get on the ship.

$250/cabin OBC for EVERYONE for the  inconvenience. 

Brilliant. Appeased almost everyone. 

(Mom said "WORTH IT")

 

 

[mscdivina2016]

1 hour ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

OBC costs them practically nothing and is a marketing ploy to keep you cruising NCL.  

Remember, The OBC benefits also cost me nothing as well and results in a savings.

 

If I wanted to add a Lobster tail in the specialty restaurant, it would have cost me $20. Now it cost me nothing. All those little things I would have purchased are now free to an extent. 

 

I prefer the 16 days or longer sailings so I always get $250 benefit.

[CrazyTrain2]

2 hours ago, mscdivina2016 said:

Remember, The OBC benefits also cost me nothing as well and results in a savings.

 

If I wanted to add a Lobster tail in the specialty restaurant, it would have cost me $20. Now it cost me nothing. All those little things I would have purchased are now free to an extent. 

 

I prefer the 16 days or longer sailings so I always get $250 benefit.

While the OBC benefit may cost you nothing, you have some amount of capital at risk.  While that may be negligible to some, I worry about folks that have limited experience to the stock market getting a abnormal feeling about investing in solid companies.  Investing is a proven pathway to prosperity but that does NOT mean every investment is a golden ticket - Especially the extremely volatile cruise stocks.