Curve beginning to flatten ,good news for the cruise industry

[ziggyuk]

6 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

In Sweden almost nothing has closed!

 

Most schools are open and all shops and restaurants are allowed to stay open with some restrictions.

 

We are recommended to stay at home but no real restrictions so far.

 

Events with more than 50 people are not allowed.

 

 

News reports say the Swedish government are preparing for further measure similar to other European countries following a 20% jump in deaths in a single day.

 

We can't always trust the news is this what your government is saying?

Hong Kong has had a similar approach with everything open and only face masks and social distancing used as a tool, they too are now introducing further measure after more virus started to spread from people traveling home (especially from Europe).

[ray98]

Sweden does not have 'great' numbers as being insinuated in this thread.  When taken into context by population they have a higher mortality rate than the US.  I suspect they are a few short days from some big changes.

[sverigecruiser]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

Well Sweden reported 726 new cases today with 96 new deaths. Sweden's death rate is 68 per million population compared with 40 per million in the US.

 

If the reports here are correct almost 800 persons has died in New York during the last 24 hours.

 

So far I see no reason to really worry here but only time will tell if the Swedish approach is stupid or clever!

 

To give some perspectives to my thoughts I might mention that I have a brother who lives in New York state and a sister who lives in Italy.  

[sverigecruiser]

51 minutes ago, ziggyuk said:

 

News reports say the Swedish government are preparing for further measure similar to other European countries following a 20% jump in deaths in a single day.

 

We can't always trust the news is this what your government is saying?

Hong Kong has had a similar approach with everything open and only face masks and social distancing used as a tool, they too are now introducing further measure after more virus started to spread from people traveling home (especially from Europe).

 

Where have you heared that? No reports about that here in Sweden.

[sverigecruiser]

20 minutes ago, ray98 said:

Sweden does not have 'great' numbers as being insinuated in this thread.  When taken into context by population they have a higher mortality rate than the US.  I suspect they are a few short days from some big changes.

 

I have never insinuated that our numbers are great. I mentioned deaths AND population to show that our numbers are NOT great.

 

Have I said that I like the Swedish way to handle it? No.

[chipmaster]

Any country or state or local community that think they are immune from the COVID19 pandemic is either completely isolated from the outside world or have implemented some extreme conditions.   Word travel and local travel of people and goods will most surely insure the will have crossed the globe multiple times over. 

 

Even with flattened curve cases will still exist with more people getting infected, just the overbearing load on health care will become tolerable with some more long term social distancing and draconian travel and business limitations will we get to a point that some sort of normalcy return. 

 

When in our lifetime have you remembered these restrictions:  Air/land travel, border closings, self isolation two weeks, restaurants, bars, theaters, sports events, olympics, church, private gatherings all canceled, we ain't talking just places but everywhere except some notable countries and locales that will soon seen an explosion and need to get with the program

 

Until all the listed activities above get back to some sort of normal operation could we even think cruising will start up again, duh

Edited April 8, 2020 by chipmaster

[Corliss]

28 minutes ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

Where have you heared that? No reports about that here in Sweden.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covid-19-sweden-s-less-stringent-measures-to-change-/1794325

[sverigecruiser]

6 minutes ago, Corliss said:

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covid-19-sweden-s-less-stringent-measures-to-change-/1794325

 

Thank you for the link.

 

No reports about that here in Sweden.

[Corliss]

21 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

Any country or state or local community that think they are immune from the COVID19 pandemic is either completely isolated from the outside world or have implemented some extreme conditions.   Word travel and local travel of people and goods will most surely insure the will have crossed the globe multiple times over. 

 

Even with flattened curve cases will still exist with more people getting infected, just the overbearing load on health care will become tolerable with some more long term social distancing and draconian travel and business limitations will we get to a point that some sort of normalcy return. 

 

When in our lifetime have you remembered these restrictions:  Air/land travel, border closings, self isolation two weeks, restaurants, bars, theaters, sports events, olympics, church, private gatherings all canceled, we ain't talking just places but everywhere except some notable countries and locales that will soon seen an explosion and need to get with the program

 

Until all the listed activities above get back to some sort of normal operation could we even think cruising will start up again, duh

Around the beginning of June the United States is projected to have only approximately 10 deaths per day from this virus.  And up to this point the IMHE projections have been way too high.  The entire world is currently "mitigating" exposure to this virus.  

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[seaman11]

20 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

Any country or state or local community that think they are immune from the COVID19 pandemic is either completely isolated from the outside world or have implemented some extreme conditions.   Word travel and local travel of people and goods will most surely insure the will have crossed the globe multiple times over. 

 

Even with flattened curve cases will still exist with more people getting infected, just the overbearing load on health care will become tolerable with some more long term social distancing and draconian travel and business limitations will we get to a point that some sort of normalcy return. 

 

When in our lifetime have you remembered these restrictions:  Air/land travel, border closings, self isolation two weeks, restaurants, bars, theaters, sports events, olympics, church, private gatherings all canceled, we ain't talking just places but everywhere except some notable countries and locales that will soon seen an explosion and need to get with the program

 

Until all the listed activities above get back to some sort of normal operation could we even think cruising will start up again, duh

this is unprecedented i agree, but this thinking that cruises will have to wait till everything is back to "normal" i dont agree with.  some pax may wait to cruise, that understandable, but not all are thinking that same way. and the cruise lines will not be thinking that either or they would all go under after 6 months. 

[chipmaster]

Just now, seaman11 said:

this is unprecedented i agree, but this thinking that cruises will have to wait till everything is back to "normal" i dont agree with.  some pax may wait to cruise, that understandable, but not all are thinking that same way. and the cruise lines will not be thinking that either or they would all go under after 6 months. 

 

If you think cruising can start before most countries re-open restaurants, bars, theaters, and their local sports spectator sport attendance I'm interested in understanding how that could be and how any country that the ship needs to disembark or stop at could justify, don't think so.   The new normal will not be the old normal, agree, but above list of activity will start well before cruising gets going

[seaman11]

2 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

If you think cruising can start before most countries re-open restaurants, bars, theaters, and their local sports spectator sport attendance I'm interested in understanding how that could be and how any country that the ship needs to disembark or stop at could justify, don't think so.   The new normal will not be the old normal, agree, but above list of activity will start well before cruising gets going

you are thinking right now, today, not 45-50 days from now,  could be a different story if the cruve flattens out, as a businessman, we are thinking ahead, not today.  today no, no cruise will go. 

[InDaPast]

32 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

Until all the listed activities above get back to some sort of normal operation could we even think cruising will start up again, duh

Yup.

 

I spent most of the morning reading several statements by medical people (from various news sites) that their biggest fear is relaxing the strict measures too soon. They all agree it would negate everything that has been accomplished so far. Numerous new studies & historical data from the 1918 flu seems to support this.

 

All indicated the only way to go is via a gradual loosening of restrictions. To me little mind, that seems to say that places like airplanes & cruise ships would be the last places to be allowed to return to near normalcy.

 

[ray98]

27 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

you are thinking right now, today, not 45-50 days from now,  could be a different story if the cruve flattens out, as a businessman, we are thinking ahead, not today.  today no, no cruise will go. 

Flattening the curve has nothing to do with putting this in the past.  Until it starts dropping all a flat curve means is you have just as many die today as you did yesterday.

Edited April 8, 2020 by ray98

[ziggyuk]

58 minutes ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

Where have you heared that? No reports about that here in Sweden.

 

This is what I was reading about the tightening up.

Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures

 

Not a classy rag, which is why I asked.

Sweden coronavirus deaths jump 20% in a day to 477

 

 

[beerman2]

8 minutes ago, ray98 said:

Flattening the curve has nothing to do with putting this in the past.  Until it stops dropping all a flat curve means is you have just as many die today as you did yesterday.

Everybody is getting ahead of themselves with the flattening curve. Our head of Ohio Health Department warns us everyday that if we don't continue to Social distance within 2 weeks there could be a major upswing in Covid-19 cases.

 

Lets not get a false sense of security. As much as we would all like to get to normal , it isn't happening soon. 

 

It will be a gradual a climb back to normalcy.

[seaman11]

19 minutes ago, ray98 said:

Flattening the curve has nothing to do with putting this in the past.  Until it stops dropping all a flat curve means is you have just as many die today as you did yesterday.

right and if that trend is moving downward, these cruiselines will start getting ready, they are not waiting till it hits 0 deaths and then start. 

[seaman11]

5 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

Everybody is getting ahead of themselves with the flattening curve. Our head of Ohio Health Department warns us everyday that if we don't continue to Social distance within 2 weeks there could be a major upswing in Covid-19 cases.

 

Lets not get a false sense of security. As much as we would all like to get to normal , it isn't happening soon. 

 

It will be a gradual a climb back to normalcy.

sandusky is correct , right now keep following these warnings , so that 30-60 days from now we can start opening things up. i dont think anyone is saying that as of today we are all ok go about as normal. 

[mynameisvlad]

Please note to everyone posting and talking about the IHME data, they specifically are only talking about the first wave only, and assuming continued stay at home through the end of May. This means that even though projections are going down, we should not celebrate yet. They're going down because social distancing is effective, but just as quickly as they go down they can also spike if restrictions are loosened too quickly.

 

Here's an excerpt from their FAQ:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

 

Will we need social distancing until there is a vaccine?

Our model suggests that – with social distancing maintained throughout – the end of the first wave of the epidemic could occur by early June.

The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By the end of the first wave of the epidemic, a substantial proportion of the population of the United States and EEA countries are likely to still be susceptible to the disease and thus measures to avoid a second wave of the pandemic prior to vaccine availability will be necessary. Maintaining some social distancing measures could be supplemented or replaced by nation-wide efforts such as mass screening, contact tracing, and selective quarantine. We are continuing to develop our modeling framework and are exploring alternate scenarios where social distancing measures are incompletely applied or are lifted before the projected first wave of the epidemic has passed. We will make these projections available as soon as development is complete.

[seaman11]

im not going to be taking any vaccine . however no one is saying stop the social distancing and go about as normal.  continue to follow the guidelines as it is working . im simply saying there is light at the end of the tunnel , enough doom and gloom ppl. 

 

You bits of kids don’t know the meaning of rough times . You should have been with me on the Russian convoys. One night it was so cold the flame on my lighter froze.

[Corliss]

I think the majority of you are way too pessimistic and are in for a bit of a surprise.  As you may remember President Trump was originally looking to begin opening the country up at Easter.  When the original "15 days to slow the curve" was about to end Drs. Fauci and Birx showed him their "models" which projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths with continuing complete mitigation and talked him into extending the shut down for an additional 30 days.

 

I don't think there is any chance he will delay the "opening" (gradual though it may be) again.  Now the "models" show dramatically lower deaths and much earlier peaks in all the states than previously predicted and they are down to 60,000 total deaths nationally (which will likely ALSO be too high.)  Even so called new "hot spots" aren't really hot spots.  Michigan is projected to hit its "peak" tomorrow and the "curve" doesn't "flatten" there: it begins an immediate decline.  They (the model) expect daily death rates to half in the following week.

 

Louisiana, the other supposed "hot spot" reached its projected peak yesterday with a death rate of 70 and like Michigan is expected to half the death rate 10 days later.

 

Earlier today I posted some articles about European countries announced plans to reopen various parts of their economies now.  I think our reopening will begin by the end of the month.

[seaman11]

10 minutes ago, Corliss said:

I think the majority of you are way too pessimistic and are in for a bit of a surprise.  As you may remember President Trump was originally looking to begin opening the country up at Easter.  When the original "15 days to slow the curve" was about to end Drs. Fauci and Birx showed him their "models" which projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths with continuing complete mitigation and talked him into extending the shut down for an additional 30 days.

 

I don't think there is any chance he will delay the "opening" (gradual though it may be) again.  Now the "models" show dramatically lower deaths and much earlier peaks in all the states than previously predicted and they are down to 60,000 total deaths nationally (which will likely ALSO be too high.)  Even so called new "hot spots" aren't really hot spots.  Michigan is projected to hit its "peak" tomorrow and the "curve" doesn't "flatten" there: it begins an immediate decline.  They (the model) expect daily death rates to half in the following week.

 

Louisiana, the other supposed "hot spot" reached its projected peak yesterday with a death rate of 70 and like Michigan is expected to half the death rate 10 days later.

 

Earlier today I posted some articles about European countries announced plans to reopen various parts of their economies now.  I think our reopening will begin by the end of the month.

careful i got a 5 day vacation because some of his big fans didnit like i reminded them about easter timeline. 

[stormynow]

36 minutes ago, Corliss said:

I think the majority of you are way too pessimistic and are in for a bit of a surprise.  As you may remember President Trump was originally looking to begin opening the country up at Easter.  When the original "15 days to slow the curve" was about to end Drs. Fauci and Birx showed him their "models" which projected 100,000 to 200,000 deaths with continuing complete mitigation and talked him into extending the shut down for an additional 30 days.

 

I don't think there is any chance he will delay the "opening" (gradual though it may be) again.  Now the "models" show dramatically lower deaths and much earlier peaks in all the states than previously predicted and they are down to 60,000 total deaths nationally (which will likely ALSO be too high.)  Even so called new "hot spots" aren't really hot spots.  Michigan is projected to hit its "peak" tomorrow and the "curve" doesn't "flatten" there: it begins an immediate decline.  They (the model) expect daily death rates to half in the following week.

 

Louisiana, the other supposed "hot spot" reached its projected peak yesterday with a death rate of 70 and like Michigan is expected to half the death rate 10 days later.

 

Earlier today I posted some articles about European countries announced plans to reopen various parts of their economies now.  I think our reopening will begin by the end of the month.

Faith is believing in what you know isn't so.

[eileeshb]

There is a long way to go yet.. China hit their peak almost 4 weeks after their start of lockdown and they’re only Starting lifting the restriction in the first province affected now, 2.5months after lockdown started. 
Until everywhere has gotten to zero new cases for a few weeks there’s always a risk of an outbreak reoccurring. There does seem to be some light on the horizon in terms of a possible stopgap vaccine for something else which is reducing infection and death rates. But any covid-19 specific vaccine is still a long way away. 

[seaman11]

11 minutes ago, eileeshb said:

There is a long way to go yet.. China hit their peak almost 4 weeks after their start of lockdown and they’re only Starting lifting the restriction in the first province affected now, 2.5months after lockdown started. 
Until everywhere has gotten to zero new cases for a few weeks there’s always a risk of an outbreak reoccurring. There does seem to be some light on the horizon in terms of a possible stopgap vaccine for something else which is reducing infection and death rates. But any covid-19 specific vaccine is still a long way away. 

the areas and ports near warm weather will help us out a lot.  still be cautious and still follow the recommendations , but i do see a light .