No US cruises for next 100 days/ CDC orders

[phissy]

Just read CDC in US have escalated their  orders to ban any cruise in US ports or waters for next 100 days. So, seems like summer cruises are a no go, as of now. 

[Até]

100 days seems a common lifespan of such orders.  The order specifies ways the cruise lines can obtain control free operation and specifies the lines have seven days develop and then seven days to submit such plans.  I have read Carnival is attempting to develop such a plan and attempt limited capacity sailings in May and June.  But in the end I feel it is unlikely any cruise line will be willing to make the required investment to meet the requirements spelled out in the order.  So worst case it could be the full 100 days that finally terminates the order on July 18th, or it could possibly even be extended again. 

 

The order also states the Secretary of Health and Human Services or the CDC Director can rescind it at any time before the 100 days.  Since those are both political appointment positions as mentioned above the order can be rescinded in several ways.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships_Extension_4-9-20-encrypted.pdf

[lastchamp64]

On 4/12/2020 at 2:55 PM, Até said:

100 days seems a common lifespan of such orders.  The order specifies ways the cruise lines can obtain control free operation and specifies the lines have seven days develop and then seven days to submit such plans.  I have read Carnival is attempting to develop such a plan and attempt limited capacity sailings in May and June.  But in the end I feel it is unlikely any cruise line will be willing to make the required investment to meet the requirements spelled out in the order.  So worst case it could be the full 100 days that finally terminates the order on July 18th, or it could possibly even be extended again. 

 

The order also states the Secretary of Health and Human Services or the CDC Director can rescind it at any time before the 100 days.  Since those are both political appointment positions as mentioned above the order can be rescinded in several ways.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships_Extension_4-9-20-encrypted.pdf

Carnival has now given up on all cruises through June 26th in the United States. My prediction is cruising is done at least for the summer and once they are sailing again, it's going to be brutal for a long time. 

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241969146.html

Edited April 13, 2020 by lastchamp64

[teachtocruis]

We have a MSC cruise booked that leaves on the 27th of June. I wonder if it will be impacted by this. MSC doesn’t say anything on their website. I’m wondering what their response will be. 

[George C]

I tried a mock booking for beginning of June , still can book 

[Até]

5 hours ago, teachtocruis said:

We have a MSC cruise booked that leaves on the 27th of June. I wonder if it will be impacted by this. MSC doesn’t say anything on their website. I’m wondering what their response will be. 

MSC website currently clearly states all cruises to May 29 have been cancelled.  If you are worried you can currently avail of the Cruise Assurance plan that covers all cruises through Sept 30, 2020 and move monies invested in this cruise to a future date.  No one can accurately predict how much your June 27 cruise will be affected.

 

Opinion: If the cruise is from the US it will take rescinding or satisfactory company mitigation (unlikely) of the current US no sail order that otherwise won't expire until July 16.  If you want to delay you can do so from now until 48 hours before sailing otherwise you can wait for a 125% future credit or 100% refund if MSC is forced to cancel.  If somehow circumstances get good enough to again allow cruises are you prepared to still sail in July?

[glittergal1]

I know this is way out of the 100 days

But would like any of you from the USA to give your insight /views as we are in the UK and are more informed on what is happening in Europe 

 

We are due to cruise out of Miami in February 2021 ,

most if not all of our 2020 European cruises I have a feeling will be cancelled or impacted in some way by the effects /after effects of Corona on travel restrictions etc

so Could we look forward to our cruise going ahead from Miami  Feb 2021 around the Caribbean?  do you think any restrictions will still be in place then?

 

 

[sidari]

You have to wonder if the Caribbean islands will lift their restrictions otherwise your cruise will be just days at sea if it went ahead.

[Linda the Book Lover]

2 hours ago, sidari said:

You have to wonder if the Caribbean islands will lift their restrictions otherwise your cruise will be just days at sea if it went ahead.

I agree if is going to be a wait and see mode for many of our cruises. I have two family cruises in June (on Carnival), one was canceled and the other is sailing so far as they are days apart. The DH had a Bermuda cruise (NCL) in May with oldest daughter for 50th birthday celebration (hers) and they are regrouping. I am feeling good about our MSC cruise April 2021. I am looking at the bright side and believe the cruise companies will have clean ships ready for us and borders will reopen though in some cases not for awhile.

[Até]

9 hours ago, glittergal1 said:

But would like any of you from the USA to give your insight /views as we are in the UK and are more informed on what is happening in Europe 

 

We are due to cruise out of Miami in February 2021 ... so Could we look forward to our cruise going ahead from Miami  Feb 2021 around the Caribbean?  do you think any restrictions will still be in place then?

If the lines don't start sailing by July or August I don't think the industry will survive as it was.  I also think the cruising situation regarding the virus is going to be the same worldwide.  I still have a Seaside sailing from Miami this September and also in March, 2021.  I have until June to make the September cruise's final payment and after that I can still cancel up to 48 hours before sailing and get a(nother) FCC if I still don't feel comfortable sailing -  although a concern is that if MSC will continue that offer through September and I could get locked in to a dud of a sailing after final payment.

 

My concerns are what will cruising look like in September, I'm positive it will be different and have worries it might not be anything I am interested in.  To use US ports cruise lines now have very difficult mandated protocols and mitigation measures they must meet.  Officially these restrictions expire in July but I foresee that many rules will need to be kept for much longer because I expect enough people will still not have had the virus by then that an outbreak under the conditions of a cruise ship of the past could still be a real concern.  I think this will likely still be a concern for my March sailing, with perhaps a few less restrictions.

 

I do think if the industry addresses the situation well enough to satisfy the US ports to allow cruise ships again the other Caribbean port stop countries will likely allow the ships to visit.  Most are heavily reliant on the tourism industry.  If not I guess MSC could just make a stop at Ocean Cay with a lot of sea days, hopefully by September there will have been earlier sailings to watch and learn from.  If by March ships still cannot make call at the ports I think the industry will be dead. 

 

I'm unsure if the actual on board conditions would really bother me.  Dave (Sidari) started a thread where I posted Genting's planned mitigation measures to get cruising again, they are not for the US but are probably similar to what cruise lines will have to do to make US stops.  Things like pre embarkation screening/testing, limited passenger numbers, more space between dining tables, 50% occupancy in theaters, excursions and other venues, crew service in the buffet and an actual isolation ward if there is a problem.  That stuff actually seems like a better experience.   Heavy use of masks, gloves and what looks like potentially experience affecting extensive cleaning processes not so much.

 

I've kept deposits on five bookings mainly because I feel that decreasing the allowed passenger numbers and increasing costs associated with disease prevention measures are likely going to make cruise prices increase in the long term.  Saleable supply is likely going to decrease and cruise line's costs are going up.  Mass market, cram the ship full, budget aimed cruises are probably not going to happen any time soon.  Barring the unlikely event of this pandemic just disappearing, their only option I can see is to sell the now limited capacity at a higher price to those that can still afford it.  I can afford the bookings I currently have but I'm not so sure what will happen with prices in the future.  Overall I think the biggest factor for me keeping the bookings to the point of actually sailing is going to be whether I've already had the virus by then, and whether there is an immunity factor after recovery.  I definitely want near zero chance of getting the virus while on a ship.

[BermudaBound2014]

16 hours ago, glittergal1 said:

I know this is way out of the 100 days

But would like any of you from the USA to give your insight /views

 

My 'view'  (no insight) is that your February trip will move forward. I have a january trip that I'm holding onto. 

 

@ate' based on our rough calculations, it appears CCL can hold on for about 9 months total before going belly up. Based on financials reported, other lines are in far worse shape (of course, no one knows MSC financials). I  tend to think your estimate of July sailings is optimistic. Time will tell of course :).

[Até]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I tend to think your estimate of July sailings is optimistic. Time will tell of course :).

I've seen that nine months mentioned regarding CCL, they are probably in one of the best positions.  July is definitely optimistic and cruise lines will need to have a lot of luck and go through a lot of expense to manage that, it wasn't really meant as an estimation by me of when it would start.  What I was meaning to say was that I think some lines are not in as good financial circumstances and some will not survive if there is no revenue so by July or August so I think the industry would have different players.  I probably should have said more clearly I do believe MSC will survive at least that long, it's why I still have money invested in bookings with them.  But I still think the cruising experience is going to be different on all surviving lines for quite some time.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Até

[rattanchair]

According to the CDC cruising from the US is going to be later than sooner.

  [" In the view of the CDC, however, Carnival helped fuel the crisis. “Maybe that excuse flies after the Diamond Princess, or maybe after the Grand Princess,” says Cindy Friedman, the experienced epidemiologist who leads the CDC’s cruise ship task force. “I have a hard time believing they’re just a victim of happenstance.” While it would have been tough to get everyone aboard the ships back to their home ports without infecting more people, Friedman says several of the plagued Carnival ships didn’t even begin their voyages until well after the company knew it was risky to do so. She says its actions created a “huge strain” on the country. “Nobody should be going on cruise ships during this pandemic, full stop,” she says. ]"

 Everything mentioned is great for the future of cruising, except for price. Forced protocols will mitigate Norovirus as well on cruise ships. No more 4 to 5 passengers stuffed into a cabin or deck lounge chair. Maybe b2b will be banned if one has not been vaccinated or tested to be a asymptomatic 'shedder' of this virus. Better to be back on land 5-7 days after exposure than get caught on the ship the following week. The gov't does not want to 'foot the bill 'again as it already blames the cruise industry for exacerbating the contagion on US soil.  If we have to get 'passports' to go back to work, we will have to be tested to get these antibody 'passports' to cruise. Great news, no more self -serve buffets. We have been running out of ship theatre shows for years at the slightest cougher seated near us. (The Divina had a glass partition between 2 rows in the back along both sides). Maybe glass partitions now between all rows and only pairs of seats spaced 6 feet apart from the next pair. Limits on how many passengers are crammed into an elevator, perhaps even having an elevator attendant to limit passengers and attendants only press the buttons. Face masks to be worn in elevators ( we might even become healthier using the stairs than whipping out a face mask every time we consider using an elevator).

   There are just so many great things that can come of this. I am just getting started....

 

P.S. "I've got this wonderful feeling, everything's going my way."

Edited April 17, 2020 by rattanchair
P.S.