RaftingJeremy Posted April 15, 2020 #101 Share Posted April 15, 2020 Ok good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seaman11 Posted April 15, 2020 Author #102 Share Posted April 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Corliss said: I totally disagree with you. The actions of both the States and Federal government were absolutely based on THEIR panic which was created by the well intentioned but fortunately incorrect read out by the scientists of what was going to happen to us. It panicked me, it panicked everyone I know. Fortunately with additional information that has become available over the last couple months I am no longer panicked. I agree with this, not to say some measures werent good, at least by the states. but things cant stay shut for 3-6more months, the economy will collapse, national debt rising like nodobys business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcl Posted April 15, 2020 #103 Share Posted April 15, 2020 2 hours ago, RaftingJeremy said: A lot of Caribbean nations are reopening to tourists in May. The government obviously hasn’t shortened the 100 day no sail as lines have already canceled through June. Hopefully this gives them time to come up with precautions that allows them to sail. I’m optimistic If one looks at the information the order was going to be for 120 days. It was shortened to 100 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erdoran Posted April 16, 2020 #104 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Airline cancelled my June 11 flight PHL-TXL-LHR (just the PHL-TXL leg). American Airlines. Shows their confidence in the summer tourist industry. As far as the model being wrong and panicking everyone, the initial 1-2 million model assumed we just let Covid “wash over us” as Trump phrased it., so it was based on the initial plan, which didn’t happen. There were many more cases of Covid on NCL than were reported. A different thread had two people on the March 8 Bliss cruise who were diagnosed after they disembarked. I’m sure if someone did followup tracking on those cruisers, there would have been many more than reported. I wouldn’t cruise until things die down because I see how fast it spreads on cruise ships. Given that the two Bliss cruises were 7 day cruises, that doesn’t give enough time for symptoms to show up during the cruise for a large number of people. Y’all who want to cruise, go right ahead and jump on the first sailing. i cancelled my 12/20 cruise and am waiting for NCL to cancel my 6/14 out of Southampton, because they will - I can’t imagine UK being ready for cruising by then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles4515 Posted April 16, 2020 #105 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Y’all who want to cruise, go right ahead and jump on the first sailing. i cancelled my 12/20 cruise and am waiting for NCL to cancel my 6/14 out of Southampton, because they will - I can’t imagine UK being ready for cruising by then. There are some “enthusiasts” ( I am being nice calling them enthusiasts ) who will jump back in, not surprising that there are some people on this board who would. In the real world I doubt there will be many who will jump in. I doubt many will book cruises this year. Quite possible that cruises will never return to anything like they were. Sent from my iPhone using Forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesignFreak Posted April 16, 2020 #106 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, erdoran said: Airline cancelled my June 11 flight PHL-TXL-LHR (just the PHL-TXL leg). American Airlines. Shows their confidence in the summer tourist industry. As far as the model being wrong and panicking everyone, the initial 1-2 million model assumed we just let Covid “wash over us” as Trump phrased it., so it was based on the initial plan, which didn’t happen. There were many more cases of Covid on NCL than were reported. A different thread had two people on the March 8 Bliss cruise who were diagnosed after they disembarked. I’m sure if someone did followup tracking on those cruisers, there would have been many more than reported. I wouldn’t cruise until things die down because I see how fast it spreads on cruise ships. Given that the two Bliss cruises were 7 day cruises, that doesn’t give enough time for symptoms to show up during the cruise for a large number of people. Y’all who want to cruise, go right ahead and jump on the first sailing. i cancelled my 12/20 cruise and am waiting for NCL to cancel my 6/14 out of Southampton, because they will - I can’t imagine UK being ready for cruising by then. I'm with you on this. People need to read what happens to your body when you get the worst of this flu. Renal Liver Heart Lungs all permanently damaged. It will never be worth the risk for me, but if they want to take it, go right ahead. As for projections, we are doing well because the country is practically shut down. Anyone saying it was overblown is being callous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare All-ready2cruise Posted April 16, 2020 #107 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, DesignFreak said: Anyone saying it was overblown is being callous. Or.... well, nevermind... you can't fix that anyway... right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corliss Posted April 16, 2020 #108 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njhorseman Posted April 16, 2020 #109 Share Posted April 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, Corliss said: Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Of course earlier today you denounced this organization's projections as scaring people because they were way out of line on the high side early on..which they were...but now you're assuming their projections are accurate? Maybe they're doing a crappy job in projecting the other end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corliss Posted April 16, 2020 #110 Share Posted April 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, njhorseman said: Of course earlier today you denounced this organization's projections as scaring people because they were way out of line on the high side early on..which they were...but now you're assuming their projections are accurate? Maybe they're doing a crappy job in projecting the other end too. No, I don't assume their projections are accurate now.....I still think based on how the data has been matching up with the projections (which change daily based on new real time data) that they are, as you put it still "on the high side".....:-) Twenty-two of the 50 states each have less than 100 deaths currently. Well over one half of all infections and deaths to date have been in the New York/New Jersey region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jobeth66 Posted April 16, 2020 #111 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Look carefully, that model is assuming 100% social distancing in all states through May.Which isn't going to happen. We don't even have full social distancing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corliss Posted April 16, 2020 #112 Share Posted April 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, Jobeth66 said: Look carefully, that model is assuming 100% social distancing in all states through May. Which isn't going to happen. We don't even have full social distancing now. As I mentioned in a previous post those projections both for individual states and for the US overall have been repeatedly reduced both in total numbers of expected deaths and in the time lines for reaching "peak deaths" which have been repeatedly shortened. And this has happened with whatever level of social distancing we are currently experiencing. I live in California. The model now projects California reaching ZERO deaths by May 15.....this is much sooner than the projection from just a week ago. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california The IMHE model expects New York to reach ZERO deaths by May 9th. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fstuff1 Posted April 16, 2020 #113 Share Posted April 16, 2020 5 hours ago, Corliss said: - snipe - When were you allowed to get off the Jewel and onto an airplane? If Hawaii didnt accept the Jewel, could you have jumped overboard and swam to the dock while Jewel was re-supplying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger88 Posted April 16, 2020 #114 Share Posted April 16, 2020 7 hours ago, Corliss said: Look carefully....according to the projections by the IMHE model that the government has been using to make policy decisions by June 27th there will be ZERO covid deaths in the United States. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america Well, I really hope that this will be the final date.. but unfortunatly many lives will be lost by then. In any case, I hope that starting June no one will die of covid. Humanity has gone through many different deseases. This one will also be fought back. Cruising must return by summer. I believe in us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corliss Posted April 16, 2020 #115 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 minute ago, fstuff1 said: When were you allowed to get off the Jewel and onto an airplane? If Hawaii didnt accept the Jewel, could you have jumped overboard and swam to the dock while Jewel was re-supplying? Actually it was touch and go as to whether we were going to be able to disembark. Honolulu denied the Maasdam disembarking the previous day (except for the 4 Hawaiians they had on board...:-) What saved us was that NCL has a very good partnership with Honolulu because the Pride of America is stationed there. But, still they required we not set foot in Honolulu, so to speak. We were whisked to a tarmac, frisked...:-) and put on a charter. Good thing, too, since I can't swim...:-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fstuff1 Posted April 16, 2020 #116 Share Posted April 16, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Corliss said: Actually it was touch and go as to whether we were going to be able to disembark. Honolulu denied the Maasdam disembarking the previous day (except for the 4 Hawaiians they had on board...:-) What saved us was that NCL has a very good partnership with Honolulu because the Pride of America is stationed there. But, still they required we not set foot in Honolulu, so to speak. We were whisked to a tarmac, frisked...:-) and put on a charter. Good thing, too, since I can't swim...:-) oh.. you departed around MArch 22? i thought you just got off the ship this week since i saw you started posting again this week. edit: read the Jewel lost use of a propeller. bet being a damaged ship also factored in Hawaii allowing the Jewel to offload passengers Edited April 16, 2020 by fstuff1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercury Posted April 16, 2020 #117 Share Posted April 16, 2020 6 hours ago, Corliss said: As I mentioned in a previous post those projections both for individual states and for the US overall have been repeatedly reduced both in total numbers of expected deaths and in the time lines for reaching "peak deaths" which have been repeatedly shortened. And this has happened with whatever level of social distancing we are currently experiencing. I live in California. The model now projects California reaching ZERO deaths by May 15.....this is much sooner than the projection from just a week ago. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california The IMHE model expects New York to reach ZERO deaths by May 9th. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york The worrisome thing is that you actually believe this. The CDC has a totally different view: https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/CDC-predicts-another-coronavirus-battle-in-the-winter-569668081.html Why would anyone be working on a vaccine if the models you quote are correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corliss Posted April 16, 2020 #118 Share Posted April 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, Mercury said: The worrisome thing is that you actually believe this. The CDC has a totally different view: https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/CDC-predicts-another-coronavirus-battle-in-the-winter-569668081.html Why would anyone be working on a vaccine if the models you quote are correct? First of all, I have made clear I do not have confidence in the IMHE models that governments are using to make policy. But, in any case the models do not say that the virus cannot or will not reappear. The models cover the period up until August 1st. And scientists have varied opinions as to whether we will see a return of the virus in the winter. They are not even sure yet if the virus will be affected by weather the way influenza is. They have very little information about this new virus. Second, as I posted yesterday, "The world will be dealing with covid for years." But, it will not remain shut for years. Governments plan to expand testing and do contact surveillance and isolation for breakouts. Creating economic catastrophe with extended shutdowns is not a feasible strategy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles4515 Posted April 16, 2020 #119 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Well, I really hope that this will be the final date.. but unfortunatly many lives will be lost by then. In any case, I hope that starting June no one will die of covid. Humanity has gone through many different deseases. This one will also be fought back. Cruising must return by summer. I believe in us No reason cruising must return by summer. Sent from my iPhone using Forums 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercury Posted April 16, 2020 #120 Share Posted April 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Corliss said: Second, as I posted yesterday, "The world will be dealing with covid for years." But, it will not remain shut for years. Governments plan to expand testing and do contact surveillance and isolation for breakouts. Creating economic catastrophe with extended shutdowns is not a feasible strategy. Exactly - we need to be able to ease the shutdowns. And even if everyone was shutdown till May 9 in New York, I still don't believe there would be ZERO deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles4515 Posted April 16, 2020 #121 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Exactly - we need to be able to ease the shutdowns. And even if everyone was shutdown till May 9 in New York, I still don't believe there would be ZERO deaths. The shutdowns will be eased. But cruises should stay shutdown for the rest of 2020. They are not a necessity and are a Petri dish for transmission. Also the cruise industry has not been an example of responsibility. Most consumers are not going to want to cruise anyway. It is going to take a while for consumers to forget the cruise industry fiasco response. They may never forget. The era of mass cruising may be over forever. Sent from my iPhone using Forums 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EscapeFromConnecticut Posted April 16, 2020 #122 Share Posted April 16, 2020 So far, the U.S. states haven't gone nearly as extreme in the shutdowns as the Chinese did in Wuhan. Essential services remain open in all 50 states, people aren't being sealed into apartments & folks on the street (so far) don't have to produce ID papers and permission slips to be outside. Any gradual reopening will phase in the more necessary and low-risk services - hair salons, perhaps, car dealers, perhaps small & half-capacity restaurants. Services that are needed by the most people & carry the least risk. Cruising is neither. The folks who are cheerfully predicting a fairly quick return for this industry simply aren't facing reality: Most of the public doesn't care or actively hates cruise lines, and there is zero justification for saying this industry is necessary in any form. The cruise line executives themselves are the only people who have a shot at saving this business - so far, they've done a rancid job at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles4515 Posted April 16, 2020 #123 Share Posted April 16, 2020 Cruising is neither. The folks who are cheerfully predicting a fairly quick return for this industry simply aren't facing reality: Most of the public doesn't care or actively hates cruise lines, and there is zero justification for saying this industry is necessary in any form. The cruise line executives themselves are the only people who have a shot at saving this business - so far, they've done a rancid job at it.I agree with you. Not a necessity. The cruise companies have acted badly and continue to do so. The reality is that the public is going to shun cruises. Probably for a long time. Maybe forever. Sent from my iPhone using Forums 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rare mking8288 Posted April 16, 2020 #124 Share Posted April 16, 2020 (edited) A handful here continued to feel immune and not at risk - might want to read this Medscape article about HCW being infected and who they are - https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928770?nlid=135054_3901&src=wnl_newsalrt_200415_MSCPEDIT&uac=175941HJ&impID=2347962&faf=1 Those that recovered from Covid-19 will live permanently with impaired respiratory functions - pulmonary fibrosis - the damage is not reversible and will progressive worsen over time. Unlike the less obvious, PTSD ... (if you live thru 9/11 here in NYC like some of us, among them - first responders, you know & understood why the alarm has been sounded.) https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pulmonary-fibrosis/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20353695 If you don't have anyone close to you in a nursing home, long-term care or group home, and/or don't plan on sending your children to summer camps this year (and possibly in 2021 ... if a vaccine isn't available by then and/or coupled with widespread rapid testing for all) - then - don't worry about the rising death tolls now beginning to get nationwide attention here in the US. Most states are not reporting the deaths suspected of and/or associated with C19 - don't worry, just ask the funeral directors afterward. The old saying, don't tell and don't ask - you don't want to know; and, what you don't know ... won't hurt as much. All these are based on the revised, changing, moving guidance of the US-CDC. Cruise ships aren't setup as ICU and probably will have zero to 1 or 2 ventilators for acute & critical care until medevac, if at all - well, in an emergency, I am sure some of you can share one of those CPAP machine, which has been said to be acceptable, i.e. if the ship's medical center run low or out of oxygen (not saying that's what they will do) On our 2019 NCL Escape sailing with norovirus, one of the ship's doctor was infected, unknowingly. Flattening the curves to a high plateau for a few states in the US sounds encouraging enough and speak of hope, unless you or someone you are close to is a number hidden behind the daily death tolls being counted ... If you think it isn't going to be that bad cruising in the shadow of C19, it's just like cruising with norovirus onboard - well, okay but, the infection control measures and universal precaution protocols are going to be worst, far worst. You and/or your mate/partner/spouse & others sharing the cabin can possibly not disembark alive - that is, of course, just a possibility. Just remember to update your wills, sign your healthcare proxy and maybe that DNR directive (although, it's probably not going to matter too much ... first responders and healthcare providers now have updated CPR protocols, guidelines & will take matters into consideration when called to a cardiac and/or respiratory on-scene emergency.) You can find those in Medscape yourself. Edited April 16, 2020 by mking8288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fstuff1 Posted April 16, 2020 #125 Share Posted April 16, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, mking8288 said: A handful here continued to feel immune and not at risk - might want to read this Medscape article about HCW being infected and who they are - https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928770?nlid=135054_3901&src=wnl_newsalrt_200415_MSCPEDIT&uac=175941HJ&impID=2347962&faf=1 Those that recovered from Covid-19 will live permanently with impaired respiratory functions - pulmonary fibrosis - the damage is not reversible and will progressive worsen over time. Unlike the less obvious, PTSD ... (if you live thru 9/11 here in NYC like some of us, among them - first responders, you know & understood why the alarm has been sounded.) pulmonary fibrosis: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/pulmonary-fibrosis/diagnosis-treatment/drc-20353695 Permanent damage? i never heard of that before. is this true for EVERYONE who got the virus or only those that showed signs and became sick? also, you have a link? Edited April 16, 2020 by fstuff1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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