Cruises cancelled through October 31

[Cruizer Bill]

Just announced that Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian have cancelled all cruises through October 31.  Just heard it on national TV.

[innlady1]

Just announced that Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Norwegian have cancelled all cruises through October 31.  Just heard it on national TV.

I’m surprised it’s not further out than that.


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[Cruizer Bill]

The announcement came from CLIA - the Cruise Lines International Association.  

 

The Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA) announced today that its ocean-going cruise line members have agreed to "voluntarily suspend" U.S. cruise operations until at least October 31, 2020.

The Association issued the following statement on behalf of its members:

Despite the valuable alignment between CLIA’s previous voluntary suspension to 15 September and the CDC’s current No-Sail Order date of 30 September, we believe it is prudent at this time to voluntarily extend the suspension of U.S. ocean-going cruise operations to 31 October. This is a difficult decision as we recognize the crushing impact that this pandemic has had on our community and every other industry. However, we believe this proactive action further demonstrates the cruise industry’s commitment to public health and willingness to voluntarily suspend operations in the interest of public health and safety, as has occurred twice prior. CLIA cruise line members will continue to monitor the situation with the understanding that we will revisit a possible further extension on or before 30 September 2020. At the same time, should conditions in the U.S. change and it becomes possible to consider short, modified sailings, we would consider an earlier restart.

[Himself]

"At least" means  it could go through November or December, sad to say.

[iancal]

I would be very surprised to see any any cruises prior to Q1 2021.  There does not appear to be enough data to make an accurate prediction.  Suffice to say things could not be going worse at the moment.

 

For many the date of the first sailings are meaningless.  I expect there will be cruisers will wait until they believe that there is no threat to their health and well being. Itineries firm, ports open, etc.  

 

Being part of the first few sailings is not am attractive option  to us.  We simply do not have enough trust or confidence in the cruise lines to place our health and well being ahead of their business objectives.  We have no desire to end up sailing aimlessly about on the MS Covid despite assurances to the contrary from any cruise line.

Edited August 5, 2020 by iancal

[KirkNC]

And the beat goes on....

 

Given the failed restarts of Hurtengruten, Paul Gauguin and AIDA, how can we even think we will see restarts in the US when we have such horrible numbers.

[KirkNC]

Here is a link:

 

https://cruiseradio.net/cruise-lines-cancel-all-sailings-until-november-1/

 

[Wayfairers]

I will be surprised to see sailings before a vaccine is available to the general public.   Then I suspect proof of vaccine will be required (like yellow Fever for some sailings)

[iancal]

Proof of vaccination may be required however one of the challenges to producing a vaccine will be it's effectiveness.

 

So, how would people feel about boarding a ship if the vaccines available were only 60 or 70 percent effective? 

 

There are still many unknowns about the disease and about the potential vaccines.  Early days yet.  We also need an effective and safe drug to combat the effects of the virus.   This is why we place little credence in the start up date projections.

Edited August 5, 2020 by iancal

[What was that?]

Original Press Release:

 

Press Release: August 05, 2020 CLIA Announces Third Voluntary Suspension of U.S. Cruise Operations

[drowelf]

42 minutes ago, Wayfairers said:

I will be surprised to see sailings before a vaccine is available to the general public.   Then I suspect proof of vaccine will be required (like yellow Fever for some sailings)

I would not be surprised that a proof of vaccination will be something I end up carrying around in my wallet for many years, just like my DL and miniaturized versions of both mine and DW passport information pages. 

 

I gave up on the 2020 cruise season months ago. Do not expect to go on our Spring Asia 28 day B2B. Our August 2021 is the first cruise I have any confidence may be possible. Really hope our Feb 2022 can be done. Fortunately not much money in the pot for all these as the 2021 Spring cruise is FCDs, 2021 August cruise is re-purposed 2020 Princess Deposit $$ and only the 2022 is new $$ and not too much at that.

 

[iancal]

Agree.  We would not consider putting down dime one on any travel product with a 2021 departure.  Cruises especially-no interest in FCC's or waiting months for a refund.  

Edited August 5, 2020 by iancal

[KirkNC]

90%?  Virtually no vaccine is that effective (I think measles is an exception).

[KirkNC]

If this goes on long enough the cruise lines may have to extend the expiration of FCC.

Edited August 5, 2020 by KirkNC

[drowelf]

7 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

90%?  Virtually no vaccine is that effective (I think measles is an exception).

I've seen that 90% number reported on several TV news outlets too. While I not sure I believe it, as it really can't be known until the vaccine is in wide spread use. 

 

Just found a link to an article with the same claim. https://www.newsweek.com/fauci-vaccine-warp-speed-slaoui-1521896

[KirkNC]

Yea, I prefer to wait until it is actually proven effective AT ALL before we start assigning an effectiveness number.  As the article says, it possible but in the history of vaccines the only one with an effectiveness that high is measles.

 

Here on the CDC website is a discussion on the topic, typical vaccines are 40-60% effective.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/past-seasons-estimates.html

So Newsweek versus CDC, you pick which one you will believe.

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by KirkNC

[KirkNC]

Here is another article that I thought was a more realistic overview of a vaccine, I posted it earlier but perhaps it needs another posting.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/02/covid-vaccine/

 

Note the discussion on effectiveness, particularly among older populations.

[drowelf]

34 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Yea, I prefer to wait until it is actually proven effective AT ALL before we start assigning an effectiveness number.  As the article says, it possible but in the history of vaccines the only one with an effectiveness that high is measles.

 

Totally agreed. This is all speculation and wishful thinking at this point.

 

I really hope that the various head offices of the cruise lines have multiple task forces working out how they will restart. They should be focused on various timelines on when they can restart, <6 months (probably not happening), 6-12 months out, 12 - 18 months and > 18 months. With the last 2 also trying to figure out how to even survive getting to that point as a corporation. 

 

 

Edited August 5, 2020 by drowelf

[iancal]

The cruise lines have a very specific interest in not cancelling cruises too far out and to fueling the expectation that cruising will commence, and be safe, in the nearer term rather than in  reality. 

 

 The want the bookings, the deposits, the payments, the artificial demand,  and  they want the FCC commitments.

 

 This is all about their own financial benefit.  It is just good business practice to them.

Edited August 5, 2020 by iancal

[mainelycruising]

IMHO, we will not see cruising return until a vaccine (or some unknown miracle wipes this virus away) is available to all.   To quote our President:  "It is what it is."

[drowelf]

1 minute ago, mainelycruising said:

IMHO, we will not see cruising return until a vaccine (or some unknown miracle wipes this virus away) is available to all.   To quote our President:  "It is what it is."

So true, while its not the best sentiment to hear expressed it is the corollary to the often uttered statement by the health experts of "The virus sets the timeline". 

[mainelycruising]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

If this goes on long enough the cruise lines may have to extend the expiration of FCC.

I would imagine that, as long as they can hang on to our money at 0% interest rate, they will extend the day in perpetuity.

 

Has anyone considered how an FCC that has been accepted by the client in lieu of a refund can be claimed for a refund at a later date?  Or, what happens if the cruise company declares bankruptcy while holding your money?  Would a credit card company honor the value of an FCC that was transferred from the original booking (often at a higher value, such as 125%) that used that credit card?  IMHO this is a time when Cash in Hand is worth more than any FCC.

[iancal]

If one has the misfortune to be holding a FCC from a cruise line that subsequently goes bankrupt my understanding is that the holder will then become an unsecured creditor.   Not a good place to be.

 

Bottom line, if you are lucky you might get a few cents on the dollar in two or three years from the date of the bankruptcy. 

 

Do not know if a credit card company would help given the time lapse.  Unless of course your credit card had some associated insurances for this type of occurrence.  They certainly would not honor the 125 percent.  That would be unreasonable.  The best you could expect was a return of your original payment IMHO.    We think that FCC's are a bit of a mugs game in this covid situation.  The cruise lines are playing it for all they can.

Edited August 5, 2020 by iancal

[bouhunter]

2 hours ago, iancal said:

We have no desire to end up sailing aimlessly about on the MS Covid despite assurances to the contrary from any cruise line.

Neither do we.  Add "locked in your cabin" to the "sailing aimlessly around" description.

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

More FCC coming.