IF...As the guys in the high rise offices at CCL plan (and IF world events agree) how many current class of ships

[SmoothFlying]

Will survive and dodge the one way crusher ticket to India IF Carnival gets the planned eight more EXCEL (Mardi Gras class) class ships it wants ? I believe the next on is supposed to be out in 2023. I guess the rest of the Fantasy class will be sacrificed and probably some of the Spirit also. What are YOUR predictions?

[SmoothFlying]

Personally, I like the smaller class ships, the Fantasy class, and can't see the EXCEL class being tied up doing the four and five day cruises. UNLESS CCL plans to cut back those too. Just MHO

 

Mac

[SmoothFlying]

12 minutes ago, 1stin71 said:

I'll take the small ships anytime over the Mammoths of the Seas (pun intended!)

LOLLLLLLLLLLL !! Bravo !! Bravo !! (bowing) YOU Sir, are a credit to the English language ! On our cruise on the Oasis in 2013, after three days my wife muttered to me, ' I FEEL like I'm sailing on the Mall of America of the Seas'. I merely grinned, and to add insult to her remark, I added, 'Who knows this MAY be the future of cruising..? She was not amused.

 

Mac

[ontheweb]

4 hours ago, 1stin71 said:

I'll take the small ships anytime over the Mammoths of the Seas (pun intended!)

I refer to them as the Monstrosities of the Seas, but I have to admit your name for them is better. I applaud you.

[BlerkOne]

Carnival Celebration is 2022.

[pogoism9]

7 hours ago, SmoothFlying said:

I guess the rest of the Fantasy class will be sacrificed and probably some of the Spirit also. What are YOUR predictions?

 

I think in the next 5 years we will see 2 more Fantasy class gone, and plans to refurb the Spirit ships to a new class (like the Sunshine/Sunrise/Radiance). Those little Spirit ships are pretty safe in the grand scheme of things I suspect

[xDisconnections]

Hopefully they all avoid the one way ticket to India as Carnival's loyalty is to Aliaga -- where the rest of the Fantasy class ships belong. I'll settle for India though if it means they can be scrapped sooner.

 

It's time.

 

PS: how many of those ships are for other brands within Carnival Corporation?

Edited November 2, 2021 by xDisconnections

[xDisconnections]

7 hours ago, SmoothFlying said:

Personally, I like the smaller class ships, the Fantasy class, and can't see the EXCEL class being tied up doing the four and five day cruises. UNLESS CCL plans to cut back those too. Just MHO

 

Mac

Why not? Royal Caribbean uses some of its larger and even newer ships for the short cruises. Most short cruises nowadays are on Freedom class ships which is larger than Carnival's Vista class with more amenities. You'll also find some short cruises on Oasis class ships.

[tidecat]

The one to keep your eyes on is the rollout of CSSC, or "Carnival China". If that doesn't pan out, I could see the Vista class ships still being built, but assigned to either Costa or Carnival.

 

I'd still be nervous about Sensation and Ecstasy being sold off by 2023 when what was going to be the third AIDA Excel (or "Helios" using AIDA's terminology) ship launches as the third Carnival Excel ship.

 

After that it gets a little muddy because you have Carnival Sunshine (1996) as the oldest ship outside the Fantasy class even though it is marketed as a "newer" ship.  I could see Conquest-class ships exiting the fleet before them, especially if there's another interested operator. At some point Carnival will have to cut bait with Tampa, Jacksonville, and Baltimore over the air draft restrictions, but that probably just means more capacity for Port Canaveral and Norfolk. 

[tidecat]

38 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

Why not? Royal Caribbean uses some of its larger and even newer ships for the short cruises. Most short cruises nowadays are on Freedom class ships which is larger than Carnival's Vista class with more amenities. You'll also find some short cruises on Oasis class ships.

If Long Beach gets LNG, why not have the short sailings to Ensanada and Catalina Island be on an Excel ship?

[mondello]

Only ships up to a certain size can fit under the bridges by some ports. Also, Alaska seems to be limited to medium size ships.

[ohioNCLcruiser]

As long as the Jacksonville and Mobile crowd doesn't stop cruising because their ship is a Fantasy class of ship I think at least two are safe for that. From what I understand no other ship's can fit under the bridges. 

 

I think the Spirit class is very much safe. It's one of the top scoring guest satisfaction ships (my personal favorite class also) and works well for ports that can't fit the bigger ships. 

[yogibear]

13 hours ago, pogoism9 said:

 

I think in the next 5 years we will see 2 more Fantasy class gone, and plans to refurb the Spirit ships to a new class (like the Sunshine/Sunrise/Radiance). Those little Spirit ships are pretty safe in the grand scheme of things I suspect

The Spirit class of ships are the only ones that will fit under the bridges in Baltimore!

 

Karen

[tidecat]

3 hours ago, ohioNCLcruiser said:

As long as the Jacksonville and Mobile crowd doesn't stop cruising because their ship is a Fantasy class of ship I think at least two are safe for that. From what I understand no other ship's can fit under the bridges. 

 

I think the Spirit class is very much safe. It's one of the top scoring guest satisfaction ships (my personal favorite class also) and works well for ports that can't fit the bigger ships. 

There is no bridge in Mobile. The terminal realistically would need to be expanded to accommodate anything larger than a Fantasy or Spirit class ship.

[Essiesmom]

Carnival Miracle has sailed from JAX.  My TA sailed on her.  EM

[SmoothFlying]

1 hour ago, tidecat said:

There is no bridge in Mobile. The terminal realistically would need to be expanded to accommodate anything larger than a Fantasy or Spirit class ship.

I would LOVE LOVE to see Mobile expanded enough to be able to have Sunshine/Radiance class based there. However, I wonder if demographics could support a larger class What's the old movie line, 'If you build it, they will come'. Personally, I'd like to see the Mobile port enlarged so that TWO radiance class ships could be based there but not sure how the city politicians would like it. Mobile's roads and hotel situation might be stretched to the max. Just my opinion.

 

Mac 

[tidecat]

5 hours ago, SmoothFlying said:

I would LOVE LOVE to see Mobile expanded enough to be able to have Sunshine/Radiance class based there. However, I wonder if demographics could support a larger class What's the old movie line, 'If you build it, they will come'. Personally, I'd like to see the Mobile port enlarged so that TWO radiance class ships could be based there but not sure how the city politicians would like it. Mobile's roads and hotel situation might be stretched to the max. Just my opinion.

 

Mac 

Hotel situation should be good outside the Mardi Gras season, as hotel capacity keeps inching upwards on the other side of Mobile Bay. Roads really shouldn't be an issue. If by some chance Mobile did actually have 6000+ cruise passengers each week, I'm sure the lodging industry would adapt.

 

Mobile's biggest problem is that the city has actually lost population - a lot of that moved to Baldwin County, but it will become increasingly harder for Mobile to go it alone in terms of developing cruise infrastructure. Even going from Fantasy class to a single Conquest/Sunshine class is nearly a 50% jump in the number of tickets that have to be sold. That means a larger terminal, more parking, etc.

 

What Mobile should have done was bulldoze the Civic Center Arena the moment the Mitchell Center opened. The Convention Center would have gone where the arena is, and the cruise terminal could have used the space where the Convention Center is now.

[jedi bobs]

From what I understand up to a conquest class can port in Mobil, but, they need the help of a tug to port and that is extra cost to Carnival, so the odds of Conquest in mobil is low

 

Long Beach  is lucky to have Panorama, and I expect in a few years they will reposion Panorama to the west coast and you will get a conquest or radence will take over that route.

 

I also belive that the Costa Magica, when it gets it's Sunshining and becomes Carnival ship will go to PR/Barbatos

 

Spirit will come back to Amarica and the least popular chip in the fleet will join Splendor in Austrailia and theAussies will be gratfull for any ship.

[xDisconnections]

7 hours ago, SmoothFlying said:

I would LOVE LOVE to see Mobile expanded enough to be able to have Sunshine/Radiance class based there. However, I wonder if demographics could support a larger class What's the old movie line, 'If you build it, they will come'. Personally, I'd like to see the Mobile port enlarged so that TWO radiance class ships could be based there but not sure how the city politicians would like it. Mobile's roads and hotel situation might be stretched to the max. Just my opinion.

 

Mac 

 

2 hours ago, tidecat said:

Hotel situation should be good outside the Mardi Gras season, as hotel capacity keeps inching upwards on the other side of Mobile Bay. Roads really shouldn't be an issue. If by some chance Mobile did actually have 6000+ cruise passengers each week, I'm sure the lodging industry would adapt.

 

Mobile's biggest problem is that the city has actually lost population - a lot of that moved to Baldwin County, but it will become increasingly harder for Mobile to go it alone in terms of developing cruise infrastructure. Even going from Fantasy class to a single Conquest/Sunshine class is nearly a 50% jump in the number of tickets that have to be sold. That means a larger terminal, more parking, etc.

 

What Mobile should have done was bulldoze the Civic Center Arena the moment the Mitchell Center opened. The Convention Center would have gone where the arena is, and the cruise terminal could have used the space where the Convention Center is now.

Mobile is where Carnival ships reposition to at the end of their lives.

 

@Thorncroft

Edited November 3, 2021 by xDisconnections