Escape damaged, cruise cancelled, passengers being flown home

[chengkp75]

4 hours ago, RVACruiser43 said:

Any credibility of a post someone said the inspection is to certify the ship for an “Empty” Atlantic crossing.  It will still need to go to a dry dock in Europe.  I am beginning to believe the stories that the ship was damaged much worse than NCL has let on.  Maybe the June cruises will be good to go, doubt that we will see May.

If the ship was severely damaged, the class surveyor in the DR would not have issued a one month temporary certificate, he would have issued a certificate of class that required the ship to either proceed directly to a drydock, or knowing that no dock was immediately available, a certificate that would have given more time for the repair.  Further, there are ways to repair even a severe breach of the hull without going into drydock, using portable cofferdams to seal off the outside and provide a dry work place against the hull.  I am leaning towards a supply chain issue with getting parts required, either from Europe or more likely from China.

[Honolulu Blue]

I did some back-of-envelope calculations and it's clear this has been a very, very, very expensive adventure/disaster for NCL.  I made the following assumptions:

• $2000 revenue per cabin from cruise fares
• $500 revenue per cabin from other onboard expenses
• $1000 in future FCC per cabin
• 1500 booked cabins per week

Plug in the numbers and you get:

• $2000 X 1500 X 5 = $15 million in direct cabin refunds
• $500 X 1500 X 5 = $4.25 million in missing onboard spend
• $1000 X 1500 X 5 = $7.5 million in future FCC to be used on other cruises

For a current total of $26.75 million.  That's CEO bonus territory!  I'm sure whatever the holdup is, it can't be resolved soon enough for Norwegian.

[hallux]

1 hour ago, Honolulu Blue said:

and it's clear this has been a very, very, very expensive adventure/disaster for NCL

I imagine they have insurance to cover such things, just as many businesses have business interruption insurance to cover them in situations where they need to close due to unforeseen circumstances.

[lgdesign]

9 hours ago, Pitzel said:

That photo is not the Escape. It is an older photo of a different ship. 

Wondered about that... thanks.

[Honolulu Blue]

1 hour ago, hallux said:

I imagine they have insurance to cover such things, just as many businesses have business interruption insurance to cover them in situations where they need to close due to unforeseen circumstances.

 

Insurance would be great, but 1) it might be of the pay-and-we'll-reimburse-you variety, which doesn't help much when the bills are still rolling in, and 2) NCL might be big enough to self-insure for risks like this.

 

Also, I haven't heard of any cruise lines being reimbursed by business interruption insurance, even though they were forced to close worldwide for varying amounts of time.  Maybe it's buried deep in their 10-Ks.

[www3traveler]

3 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

I did some back-of-envelope calculations and it's clear this has been a very, very, very expensive adventure/disaster for NCL.  I made the following assumptions:

• $2000 revenue per cabin from cruise fares
• $500 revenue per cabin from other onboard expenses
• $1000 in future FCC per cabin
• 1500 booked cabins per week

Plug in the numbers and you get:

• $2000 X 1500 X 5 = $15 million in direct cabin refunds
• $500 X 1500 X 5 = $4.25 million in missing onboard spend
• $1000 X 1500 X 5 = $7.5 million in future FCC to be used on other cruises

For a current total of $26.75 million.  That's CEO bonus territory!  I'm sure whatever the holdup is, it can't be resolved soon enough for Norwegian.

Your calculations did not include: (1) Port Canaveral port fees, (2) crew salaries-- they still have to be paid, (3) fuel to keep the ship running and others.

 

Yes this is expensive.  If an azipod has to be replaced or repaired-- they may need a drydock to do it and parts may have to come from Sweden.

[RVACruiser43]

What about forward thrusters?  The way they were fighting to get unstuck for hours on March 14th I could see some overworked Thrusters and Azipods needing some work.  Aside from any hull damage.  I wonder if the would have just rested a number of hours until the high tide hit and then worked if the damage would be any less?

 

[Honolulu Blue]

28 minutes ago, www3traveler said:

Your calculations did not include: (1) Port Canaveral port fees, (2) crew salaries-- they still have to be paid, (3) fuel to keep the ship running and others.

 

Yes this is expensive.  If an azipod has to be replaced or repaired-- they may need a drydock to do it and parts may have to come from Sweden.

 

I focused strictly on the revenue side because I don't have any good idea of what the ongoing and additional expenses are.  I'm sure they're considerable and are contributing significantly to NCL's losses from this event.  This might even get a mention in their next 10-K, as in, "The Norwegian Escape subtracted 16 cents a share from last quarter's earnings due to its grounding in March and subsequent weeks out of service".

[chengkp75]

23 minutes ago, RVACruiser43 said:

What about forward thrusters?  The way they were fighting to get unstuck for hours on March 14th I could see some overworked Thrusters and Azipods needing some work.  Aside from any hull damage.  I wonder if the would have just rested a number of hours until the high tide hit and then worked if the damage would be any less?

 

You really cannot "overwork" a thruster or Azipod.  There are too many interlocks that will shut down or limit the power when temperatures get out of normal.  As for waiting, that would all depend on where the ship was stuck.  If it was aground, then waiting might have been better, but again, you try until it works, not wait for some arbitrary time and then see that it works, but could have worked hours before.  If it was stuck against the side of the channel, then working it was the only option.  Depending on the tidal flow, the water could have pressed the ship against the side of the channel with hundreds of tons of force (even at a slow couple of knots of tidal flow), which would actually require "slack water" (the time when the tidal flow stops and reverses).

[BirdTravels]

1 hour ago, www3traveler said:

Your calculations did not include: (1) Port Canaveral port fees, (2) crew salaries-- they still have to be paid, (3) fuel to keep the ship running and others  

I thought that Port Canaveral was giving them “free parking” during the repairs. BTW some of the crew were transferred off…. Talked with a few now on the Encore helping with the surge. 

[Laszlo]

49 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

You really cannot "overwork" a thruster or Azipod.  There are too many interlocks that will shut down or limit the power when temperatures get out of normal.  As for waiting, that would all depend on where the ship was stuck.  If it was aground, then waiting might have been better, but again, you try until it works, not wait for some arbitrary time and then see that it works, but could have worked hours before.  If it was stuck against the side of the channel, then working it was the only option.  Depending on the tidal flow, the water could have pressed the ship against the side of the channel with hundreds of tons of force (even at a slow couple of knots of tidal flow), which would actually require "slack water" (the time when the tidal flow stops and reverses).

Just out of curiosity are the thruster hydraulic or electric motors?

[Karaboudjan]

1 hour ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

I focused strictly on the revenue side because I don't have any good idea of what the ongoing and additional expenses are.  I'm sure they're considerable and are contributing significantly to NCL's losses from this event.  This might even get a mention in their next 10-K, as in, "The Norwegian Escape subtracted 16 cents a share from last quarter's earnings due to its grounding in March and subsequent weeks out of service".

 

Depending on how you want to look at it some of that lost revenue will be offset by people re-booking onto other cruises.

[Honolulu Blue]

1 hour ago, Honolulu Blue said:

I focused strictly on the revenue side because I don't have any good idea of what the ongoing and additional expenses are.  I'm sure they're considerable and are contributing significantly to NCL's losses from this event.  This might even get a mention in their next 10-K, as in, "The Norwegian Escape subtracted 16 cents a share from last quarter's earnings due to its grounding in March and subsequent weeks out of service".

 

5 minutes ago, Karaboudjan said:

Depending on how you want to look at it some of that lost revenue will be offset by people re-booking onto other cruises.

 

You could look at it that way.  I'm sure some of the people involved are so wowed by NCL's customer service and superior giveaway plan that they book cruises beyond what their refunds and FCC would otherwise give them.  

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, Laszlo said:

Just out of curiosity are the thruster hydraulic or electric motors?

Yes.  😉  All use electric motors to drive them.  Some are constant speed motors, and some are variable speed motors, all are the 10,000v that the generators put out.  Constant speed motors use hydraulics to control a variable pitch propeller (this is the more common type), and variable speed motors use a frequency drive to change the frequency of the AC power to control speed of a fixed pitch propeller.

[The Traveling Man]

On 3/31/2022 at 10:20 AM, Lane Hog said:

Yeah, except that might give false hope as to the return date.  Sometimes the first 80% is the easy part.

The first 90% of a task requires the first 90% of the time, and the last 10% requires the remaining 90% of the time.

[Karaboudjan]

5 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

 

You could look at it that way.  I'm sure some of the people involved are so wowed by NCL's customer service and superior giveaway plan that they book cruises beyond what their refunds and FCC would otherwise give them.  

 

I'm not talking about that.  Anyone who rebooks to use their FCC is giving $1000 of their refund back to NCL ($2000 minus the FCC assuming that they pay the same fare) and they will do the onboard spend, so I would say that only the $1000 was lost; the rest is just deferred.  

[GonzoWCS]

Excellent discussion here folks

 

Cheers

[BirdTravels]

Rumors from the Escape is that they plan to operate on 4/16. They are moving crew, on short notice, to the Escape in anticipation of resuming operations. This week, 400 bookings were transferred from the Escape to the Encore (including my booking). That was offset by nearly 300 bookings that missed the ship due to flight delays and cancellation due to weather in Florida. A few joined in St Thomas on Day 4. 

[kaprin02]

The funny thing is - about half the rumors say the 4/16 sailing will be cancelled, and half say it'll go. All the rumors originate from "my PCC" or "a trusted crew member" or something like that.  The latest posts on the thread here on CC about the 4/16 sailing are literally saying that they've been told it's cancelled.  Since nothing official one way or the other has come out, no one really knows anything.

[RVACruiser43]

7 hours ago, kaprin02 said:

The funny thing is - about half the rumors say the 4/16 sailing will be cancelled, and half say it'll go. All the rumors originate from "my PCC" or "a trusted crew member" or something like that.  The latest posts on the thread here on CC about the 4/16 sailing are literally saying that they've been told it's cancelled.  Since nothing official one way or the other has come out, no one really knows anything.

I am just going to sit on the fence and watch to see what really happens!  Good Soap opera material.

[ontheweb]

11 hours ago, kaprin02 said:

The funny thing is - about half the rumors say the 4/16 sailing will be cancelled, and half say it'll go. All the rumors originate from "my PCC" or "a trusted crew member" or something like that.  The latest posts on the thread here on CC about the 4/16 sailing are literally saying that they've been told it's cancelled.  Since nothing official one way or the other has come out, no one really knows anything.

Actually, someone may know something, but they are not saying anything.

[sberg23]

No one outside NCL brass knows anything.  My PCC said he and his team were confident based on internal meetings and discussions that my 4/2 cruise would sail and to paraphrase, “just needed to fly in one more inspector”… and only days later it was cancelled.  IMO I would expect each and every cruise on it to cancel until the day it doesn’t.  Just be ready to adjust quickly, try to be patient with the NCL staff making the reservation changes as they too are feeling the stress, and enjoy the FCC.  

[Pitzel]

4 hours ago, sberg23 said:

No one outside NCL brass knows anything.  My PCC said he and his team were confident based on internal meetings and discussions that my 4/2 cruise would sail and to paraphrase, “just needed to fly in one more inspector”… and only days later it was cancelled.  IMO I would expect each and every cruise on it to cancel until the day it doesn’t.  Just be ready to adjust quickly, try to be patient with the NCL staff making the reservation changes as they too are feeling the stress, and enjoy the FCC.  

That is the tact that we are taking. While we certainly hope that the 4/16 sailing goes ahead as planned, we are figuring out all of our options with the assumption that it will likely be cancelled.

[Broadwaybb]

I know it’s all speculation at this point anyway, but if the ship can’t sail to Rome, do all of those itineraries just get canceled? Would there be the possibility of another ship instead? I’m on a June trip, and I’m looking into other options, but all of the other voyages are shorter. It would be fine, but I’m just curious if anyone thinks Norwegian would find a way to still have 10 day Mediterranean cruises these next few months if the Escape goes into dry dock. 

[SRO Central Florida]

We are booked for the April 16, 2022 cruise. We have an handicap cabin. So far no news. 

Before the Covid 19 we cruised two times every year. Our last cruise was back on November 2019. All booked cruises from 2020 and 2021 were cancelled. 

The only other ship available will be the Joy from Miami. The possibility of getting a similar cabin is very hard.

My issue is, NCL knows if the Escape can be ready to sail April 16. Why the mystery. Be upfront and let us know.